| Robith's Relegation Index 19/20 10:25 - Sep 16 with 14672 views | robith |
Hello fellow travellers of the night.
You may remember this thread from last year where I tried to create a way of seeing our chances of survival (aside from the brief fortnight we thought we were gonna make the play offs). I had planned to bring it back, and had some nice feedback that people wanted to see it again. Now we've played 15% of our game it feels robust enough to have a look
Also, others made great contributions too, so maybe this could be a catch all stats thread
From last year - "So I've tried to create a basic statistics system to see. Totally based in the numbers we need to post rather than subjective analysis of how games have gone.
So each week I'll post the index of our chance of survival. Indices work by converting separate numbers into a base (which is scored as 100) and working out how more or less likely an outcome is. 120 is the mark for something significantly being likely to happen, 80 is the mark for something being significantly unlikely to happen."
So in summary - 100 equals standard. Above 100 = good, below 100=bad
I've taken the average points for the last 5 years. Play offs = 76.2. Survival = 46.6
Survival: 191
Play Offs: 117
Interestingly though when we look at vs the same results last year (so discounting Hudd & Luton) we have 9 points vs last year's 10. I've built this in this year so will keep monitoring it.
Encouraging start. 28% of points for survival accomplished already.
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| Robith's Relegation Index 19/20 on 11:58 - Sep 16 with 10575 views | Antti_Heinola |
This is brilliant, thanks Robith! |  |
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| Robith's Relegation Index 19/20 on 13:04 - Sep 16 with 10438 views | eghamranger |
Seems like we are above average at the moment then.. |  | | |
| Robith's Relegation Index 19/20 on 14:23 - Sep 16 with 10373 views | Rs_Holy |
| Robith's Relegation Index 19/20 on 13:04 - Sep 16 by eghamranger |
Seems like we are above average at the moment then.. |
wonder how the QPR worm looks this year compared to other years in the Championship? |  | | |
| Robith's Relegation Index 19/20 on 14:40 - Sep 16 with 10356 views | robith |
| Robith's Relegation Index 19/20 on 14:23 - Sep 16 by Rs_Holy |
wonder how the QPR worm looks this year compared to other years in the Championship? |
Here is last year's vs our current one
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| Robith's Relegation Index 19/20 on 14:45 - Sep 16 with 10344 views | FDC |
| Robith's Relegation Index 19/20 on 14:23 - Sep 16 by Rs_Holy |
wonder how the QPR worm looks this year compared to other years in the Championship? |
Scott Jones? Pretty much the same I think. |  | | |
| Robith's Relegation Index 19/20 on 16:00 - Sep 16 with 10227 views | qpr_1968 |
seeing as though weve started well, cant you work out one for promotion. |  |
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| Robith's Relegation Index 19/20 on 16:14 - Sep 16 with 10207 views | robith |
| Robith's Relegation Index 19/20 on 16:00 - Sep 16 by qpr_1968 |
seeing as though weve started well, cant you work out one for promotion. |
It has the play offs on it, that's ambitious enough for now | | | |
| Robith's Relegation Index 19/20 on 09:47 - Sep 23 with 9772 views | robith |
Another great weekend for the team
Playoffs: 144
Survival: 235!
We have also surpassed our points from the same fixtures last year for the first time (12 vs 11 - in fairness Swansea at home is the main data point warping that at the moment
Vs estimated points:
Vs last season's points
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| Robith's Relegation Index 19/20 on 11:33 - Sep 23 with 9610 views | FDC |
Cheers for this Robith, a useful and interesting addition to the LFW Game Analysis resource. | | | |
| Robith's Relegation Index 19/20 on 11:58 - Sep 23 with 9562 views | Rs_Holy |
Cheers Robith... loving the look of that graph right now  | | | |
| Robith's Relegation Index 19/20 on 12:13 - Sep 23 with 9539 views | robith |
The big failing of last season was a failure to capitalise on momentum - winning streaks often followed by long periods without a point. So excited to see where we go from here | | | |
| Robith's Relegation Index 19/20 on 12:14 - Sep 23 with 9531 views | robith |
And sorry for the #ref on the year on year chart - excel not a fan of how i've combined those data sources | | | |
| Robith's Relegation Index 19/20 on 12:19 - Sep 23 with 9501 views | isawqpratwcity |
| Robith's Relegation Index 19/20 on 12:13 - Sep 23 by robith |
The big failing of last season was a failure to capitalise on momentum - winning streaks often followed by long periods without a point. So excited to see where we go from here |
The big failing of last season was the wheels falling off around game number 25 or 26. The graph of results is clearly a stick broken in the middle. [Post edited 23 Sep 2019 23:38]
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| Robith's Relegation Index 19/20 on 13:25 - Sep 23 with 9380 views | Hunterhoop |
Excellent stuff, Rob! |  | | |
| Robith's Relegation Index 19/20 on 18:37 - Sep 23 with 9188 views | CiderwithRsie |
| Robith's Relegation Index 19/20 on 12:14 - Sep 23 by robith |
And sorry for the #ref on the year on year chart - excel not a fan of how i've combined those data sources |
I assumed you were just venting about refs like the rest of us. | | | |
| Robith's Relegation Index 19/20 on 10:06 - Oct 7 with 8585 views | robith |
After three rapid fire games and an intl break, a little bit of the index
Play offs: 109
Survival: 178
A good start to the season continues as we now have 15 points this year from fixtures we got 11 points from last year (though I exclude relegated and promoted teams - Nippon will fill you in to include those)
Still tracking above the play off average PPG
And you can see the difference vs last year - similar pattern but those dips in form are much shallower so far, and we're getting on the board more often
All in all a very pleasing start to the first quarter of the season - we've already got 41% of the points I've estimated to stay up. We're also playing a more exciting blend of football - 1.63 goals per game vs 0.77 in the first 11 games last year (no point looking at goals conceded given we shipped 10 in 2 games last year) | | | |
| Robith's Relegation Index 19/20 on 10:12 - Oct 7 with 8549 views | PinnerPaul |
Not quite a quarter way through so even better! | | | |
| Robith's Relegation Index 19/20 on 10:22 - Oct 7 with 8528 views | stevec |
| Robith's Relegation Index 19/20 on 08:28 - Sep 24 by QPR_Nippon |
Great stuff, Rob. Good to see you’ve added the last season comparison.
You may recall I was calculating this for your thread last season. When I did this I was substituting relegated/promoted teams for the teams they replaced, e.g. highest placed team coming down substituted for highest placed team going up, and so on. So, we would substitute Huddersfield for Aston Villa, and Luton for Rotherham.
Factor this in and we have 2 points more than last season (as we bizarrely beat Villa and lost to Rotherham at home). That extrapolates to a roughly 12 point improvement over the whole season, finishing with 63 points (last season we got 51). This would have placed us 13th last season and 12th the season before.
This does tend to support the view that the fixture list has been quite kind to Rangers so far. Just like last season, things seemingly get much tougher in November so vital I think that we get these points on the board while we can. [Post edited 24 Sep 2019 8:30]
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Love the mathematics of this but does your index give too much credence to last season's corresponding fixtures?
Extrapolating 19 points from 11 games puts us on 79 points for the season and a place in the play offs.
As such, the likely finish is somewhere in between this and your indexes 63 points, just outside the play offs. |  | | |
| Robith's Relegation Index 19/20 on 10:30 - Oct 7 with 8512 views | CiderwithRsie |
Amazing how the flat lines (defeats) coincide with the same weeks last year, except of course in the first few games when last year when the first month looked like a corpse's heart monitor.
I hope to God we don't repeat last year's post Christmas famine - we can't, surely? | | | |
| Robith's Relegation Index 19/20 on 11:21 - Oct 7 with 8447 views | robith |
| Robith's Relegation Index 19/20 on 10:22 - Oct 7 by stevec |
Love the mathematics of this but does your index give too much credence to last season's corresponding fixtures?
Extrapolating 19 points from 11 games puts us on 79 points for the season and a place in the play offs.
As such, the likely finish is somewhere in between this and your indexes 63 points, just outside the play offs. |
Not the previous season's fixtures, but you are absolutely right that it's not forward looking - it's a statement of where we are right now vs the end goal. Want to do some point prediction work eventually, but as you say we deffo need a larger base | | | |
| Robith's Relegation Index 19/20 on 12:40 - Oct 7 with 8364 views | robith |
And everyone, please do shout with suggestions or your own analysis. Was one of the best parts of the thread last year (aside from the 3 weeks we thought we were going to win the league) | | | |
| Robith's Relegation Index 19/20 on 15:26 - Oct 10 with 8091 views | QPR_Nippon |
| Robith's Relegation Index 19/20 on 10:06 - Oct 7 by robith |
After three rapid fire games and an intl break, a little bit of the index
Play offs: 109
Survival: 178
A good start to the season continues as we now have 15 points this year from fixtures we got 11 points from last year (though I exclude relegated and promoted teams - Nippon will fill you in to include those)
Still tracking above the play off average PPG
And you can see the difference vs last year - similar pattern but those dips in form are much shallower so far, and we're getting on the board more often
All in all a very pleasing start to the first quarter of the season - we've already got 41% of the points I've estimated to stay up. We're also playing a more exciting blend of football - 1.63 goals per game vs 0.77 in the first 11 games last year (no point looking at goals conceded given we shipped 10 in 2 games last year) |
Nice one Rob. Responding late to this as just seen it.
Blackburn result takes us from 2 to 5 points better off than corresponding fixtures last season.
So now 19 from 11, where last season we had 14 from the 'corresponding' fixtures. As we are just under a quarter of the way through the season, extrapolating over 46 games gives us an extra 21 points (rounded figure) and 72 points overall.
Good enough for 8th place last season and just 2 points shy of the play-offs! |  | | |
| Robith's Relegation Index 19/20 on 15:35 - Oct 10 with 8067 views | QPR_Nippon |
| Robith's Relegation Index 19/20 on 10:22 - Oct 7 by stevec |
Love the mathematics of this but does your index give too much credence to last season's corresponding fixtures?
Extrapolating 19 points from 11 games puts us on 79 points for the season and a place in the play offs.
As such, the likely finish is somewhere in between this and your indexes 63 points, just outside the play offs. |
Using last season's fixtures as a reference point allows us to take into account the level of difficulty of the fixtures.
Obviously QPR didn't always come away with expected results last season, so would concede it's not perfect in that respect. But considering we often struggle against the same teams year after year I think it's objectively the best method of coming up with a 'par' score for each fixture. [Post edited 10 Oct 2019 15:38]
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| Robith's Relegation Index 19/20 on 11:48 - Oct 23 with 7711 views | robith |
Hi Guys, Big index update for you combining Hull and Reading.
And thanks for the feedback, I've brought in some new features, particularly off the back of what stevec mentioned last time out.
First up the index headlines:
Playoffs: 111
Survival: 182
On my measure of fixtures we played last season, we're on 19 points vs 13, which continues to improve which is v positive given some odd fixture variables (we lost to Swansea at home this year despite thrashing them last year for example) and important as fixture list has been kind thus far.
As our goal difference is 0 (actually hilarious for our league position) we have the same goals per game/conceded per game, both of which are higher than last year's fixtures (1.77 vs 1.43 scored, 1.3 conceded). Inability to concede fewer goals seems to be the main factor holding us back, rather than clean sheets given the games we've lost, we've lost by at least two clean goals.
The worm continues to wriggle upwards
The error "better version of last year" parallels continue (I also got rid of that godforsaken #REF)
I've then worked out our running points per game (not interesting enough to show on its own) and then extrapolated that week by week to show our running forecast finish based on last season (I will eventually change this to an average 5 year tally like the main index, but that will take me a little time to scrape the data). Currently our PPG has finishing on 81 points, which last season would've had us finish 4th
The TL:DR version - it's all going pretty well | | | |
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