As all-but-relegated QPR prepare to welcome Stoke City to Loftus Road LFW wonders whether the last gasp win in this fixture last season actually did more harm than good.
Premier League >>> Saturday April 20, 2013 >>> Kick off 3pm >>> Loftus Road, London, W12
Few QPR goals rest as clearly in the memory as Djibril Cisse’s ninetieth minute winner in this fixture last season. It could be because the sight of the Frenchman swooping in unmarked at the far post to slam in Anton Ferdinand’s flicked header from a late corner was just about the only moment of any note whatsoever in a thoroughly turgid encounter, but more likely it’s because at the time it felt like a massively significant moment in the modern history of QPR.
A Stoke fan on the club’s busy Oatcake message board said he’d “never seen a home mental like it” and at the time it was easy to see why Loftus Road had reacted in that way. The goal made it five home wins in a row – a run that also included victories against Spurs, Arsenal and Liverpool - and turned out to be the final two points required for salvation which had seemed so unlikely approaching the last ten fixtures that almost pitted Rangers against the top half of the division in ascending order finishing up with Manchester City away on the final day.
It also came at the exact moment West Brom were equalising up at Bolton in a 2-2 draw that kept the Trotters below Rangers in the Premier League table and a week later Stoke rallied from the late defeat to hold Bolton to a draw at the Britannia Stadium and relegate them instead of the Super Hoops. The Potters, never very high on the Christmas card list of most QPR fans thanks to several nasty incidents between the two clubs in recent history, had inadvertently played a massive part in preserving the R’s top flight status.
The general feeling was that Rangers had done the hard part. The Tony Fernandes takeover had happened so late the previous summer that it always rather felt like the club was playing catch up in its first season back in the top division for 15 years – rushing to sign clutches of players in both transfer windows. By staying up they’d given themselves the breathing space of a whole summer to put a more settled squad in order with some carefully chosen additions. A message board thread on this website running to a dozen pages asking for the three relegated teams in 2012/13 saw not a single poster name QPR as one of their tips. Onwards and upwards was the general feeling – even the notoriously pessimistic QPR fans expected a comfortable season of midtable football this term.
As Rangers prepare to face Stoke again almost a year later, it’s easy to think that the Cisse goal may actually have done more harm than good. The accounts to the end of last season show Rangers lost £22m in their first season in the Premier League, increased its wage bill from £26m to £51m year on year and raised its level of debt from £56m to £89m despite turnover soaring from £16m to £64m. Relegation at the end of that would have been a disaster, but given that since then the club has signed another 14 players including Loic Remy for £7m and Chris Samba for £10m ballooning the squad to 42 professionals as well as going through the expensive process of sacking Mark Hughes and his vast backroom team it’s hard to see the situation being anything other than much worse now. As ever with debt it’s about who you owe it to, rather than how much you owe, but as of a month ago Rangers now also have a £15m loan from Barclays on their portfolio. Perhaps getting relegated before all that extra money was spunked up the wall may have been better in the long run after all: no Ji-Sung Park, no Esteban Granero, no pair of £50k a week goalkeepers, no Andy Johnson and a much earlier departure for Mark Hughes.
But this dreadful season of just four victories could yet prove to be a valuable learning curve on the way to ultimate success at Loftus Road. Had Rangers been relegated last summer, and successfully bounced straight back at the first attempt, then it’s likely that this summer would have been the same kid-in-a-candy-store affair we saw ten months ago. Having learnt the hard way that that signing a raft of ageing big-name players and placing faith in the likes of Hughes and Kia Joorabchian isn’t ever going to be the best idea for a club of QPR’s size and needs you would hope that Tony Fernandes and the board would never be stung in the same way again.
When West Ham were relegated with Avram Grant in charge and a debt in three figures it looked disastrous. But they regrouped well in the Championship, building a squad with a clear ethos and plan and making intelligent signings like Kevin Nolan and Matt Taylor which meant that not only was the team good enough to come straight back at the first attempt but it then didn’t need radical surgery to cope with the higher level this season. The Hammers, safely ensconced in midtable, were very unfortunate not to beat champions elect Manchester United during the week and can reflect on a job very well done this campaign. Sam Allardyce and his brand of football raise hackles, but the model they have followed over the past two years has been one QPR should study meticulously as they attempt to do the same themselves.
In 1996 QPR dropped out of the Premier League just as the television money was about to increase exponentially. They’re about to do the same again and cannot afford to be away from the top table for too long. But mistakes can be valuable experience to learn from and providing those in power in W12 are now older and wiser for the horrific 2012/13 campaign, it could yet turn out to be the making of the club.
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Team News: Bobby Zamora serves the second game of a three match suspension for his straight red card in the last home game against Wigan. Shaun Wright-Phillips is out for the rest of the season after ankle surgery but other than that and a few training ground knocks Rangers apparently have no fresh injury concerns. Harry Redknapp must decide whether to recall Adel Taarabt from the bench as a starter.
Stoke news to follow.
Elsewhere: It’s threatening to be a dull end to the Premier League season in contrast to the drama we all suffered through last May. Only the final Champions League spots and last relegation place remain up for grabs. At the bottom it looks like one of Wigan, Villa, Sunderland or Stoke for the drop alongside QPR and Reading. Sunderland recorded a famous 3-0 win at Newcastle last week and will hope to follow that up against Everton at the Stadium of Light on Saturday while Villa look to be on a hiding to nothing at Manchester United on Monday. Wigan are at West Ham while Stoke of course travel to QPR.
At the top it’s two from Arsenal, Chelsea and Spurs for the third and fourth positions. Spurs have a game in hand but host second place Man City on Sunday followed by Chelsea’s trip to Liverpool. Arsenal cross London to face Fulham who were easily beaten by Chelsea in another derby game during the week.
Norwich v Reading, Swansea v Southampton and West Brom v Newcastle hold little interest for anybody although the Magpies and the Canaries are only a couple of bad results away from being sucked back into the relegation mire at the worst possible point in the season.
Referee: Given Stoke’s style and the presence of Robert Huth in their ranks it’s perhaps not the weekend QPR would have picked to have the league’s most lenient referee in town. Chris Foy, fresh from FA Cup semi-final controversy where he failed to dismiss Sergio Aguero for a bad tackle on David Luiz, has shown just 60 yellow cards in 29 games this year which is comfortably the lowest total in the division. He became a cult hero at Loftus Road last season after sending off two Chelsea players in the West London derby but upset the Rangers faithful on Boxing Day this season by allowing a controversial West Brom goal despite an apparent foul on goalkeeper Robert Green and then later failing to spot a blatant penalty at the Loft End. For his full QPR case file please click here.
QPR: The division’s worst home record (just two wins from 16 matches) faces up against its worst away record this Saturday as QPR welcome Stoke to Loftus Road. The 12 goals QPR have managed at Loftus Road is easily the league’s worst home scoring record with Villa’s 16 second. Rangers have scored 12 goals from outside the box this season, the joint most in the league and a whopping 41% of their total goals scored. Apparently Rangers and Barcelona have also had exactly the same amount of shots on goal in league games this season – 428.
Stoke: Only Stoke have scored fewer goals than QPR this season – 28 compared to Rangers’ 29 – and Tony Pulis’ side also have a worse away record having won just once all season. In fact, going back into the last campaign Stoke have now won just one of their last 25 road matches. They have won just one of their last 14 in the league and two of the last 22 in all competitions. They’re currently on a run of one draw and six defeats from their last seven matches and have won just one of the last seven visits to Loftus Road. They have scored just nine goals in 16 away matches this year – West Ham are next worst with ten but everybody else has 13 or more and QPR have 17.
Prediction: Fresh from a correct call at Goodison Park last week, Prediction League reigning champion Nathan McAllister says…
“So that’s it then; Rangers are a relegated side in every sense except the mathematical one. This might have been open to some dispute had we not had clear evidence (i.e. the performance in the second half at Goodison Park) that the players have basically given up. The manager too, if his comments post-match were anything to go by. And this just as Rangers were about to play two matches against the worst two sides in the division, beginning this Saturday with the visit of a Stoke side in free fall.
“It’s hard to believe now that at the turn of the year Stoke were in eighth place, having been beaten just three times in the opening 20 matches. Only Manchester City had been beaten fewer times up to that point. Then came the collapse. Stoke have just 5 points from 14 matches in 2013 – the same number of points Rangers managed in their first 14 games – and based on current form are now looking the most likely of the five or six teams in contention for the third relegation spot to drop. If this were to be the case their mind-numbingly dull, direct and physical approach, whether being employed effectively or otherwise, would not be missed, and it’s hard to imagine anyone outside the Potteries shedding any tears – unless of course you follow a team in the Championship. (Doh! As Homer Simpson would say) .
“So I think we can say with some confidence that the phrase ‘mouth-watering’ is probably not going to be cropping up very often in the various match previews around the web for this fixture. It pits together the two teams with the two worst goal-scoring records in the division. Stoke have scored just twice in their last seven matches, and although Rangers now carry a greater goal threat in the shape of Loic Remy, they still have by far the worst home goal scoring record in the division. Stoke have lost a good deal of their defensive solidity in recent months but it’s still worth remembering that their defensive record remains the best of any team outside the top eight. Everything points to this being a turgid affair between two sides sorely lacking in both quality and confidence - and one that will very likely be lacking in goals as well.”
Prediction: QPR 0 Stoke 0
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