Can Saints Get Into Europe Next Season Through The Back Door ?

Can Saints get into Europe through the UEFA Fair Play method ? the truth is its not as easy as it might sound so here is all the info on how we could do it.

If you think that qualification for the Europa League is simple then forget it, If you think that Saints can get in it fairly easily either, forget that, to understand how it all works you need a degree in mathematics and a first class honours one at that.

Firstly there is the question as to whether England will actually get a place at all through fair play qualification, the criteria is that only the top three Football Associations in UEFA qualify for a spot, England currently sits fourth in the latest rankings, although reports say that there is a good chance they could rise into the top three, if they do then someone will get a place from the Premier League.

As it stands at the moment Saints sit fifth in the fair play table for the Premier League, but that isnt as bad as it stands in that of the four clubs in front, Arsenal, Spurs and Manchester United are all likely to qualify for Europe anyway and not need the spot, so that leaves only Liverpool ahead of us who look unlikely to qualify in any other way.

Liverpool currently have 1066 points with an average of 8.6 per match whilst we sit with 1054 and 8.5. However the latest table seems to be two games behind the actual Premier table, so things could change, in simple terms, using the criteria printed below Saints would have to outscore Liverpool by 0.2 per game to leap above them, it should also be noted that right behind Saints are Fulham averaging 8.49, behind that its Reading & Norwich on 8.27 who look well out of it. 

The Daily Echo seems to think that Brendon Rogers has indicated that Liverpool would turn down the spot if they are offered it, Im not so sure, European tournament participation is extremely important to Liverpool, sadly for Saints I think that they would be likely to take it and scrap the plans for a far east tour.

So could Saints overtake Liverpool anyway ?

The answer is perhaps, the scoring system for the fair play league is extremely complex, if it was just a case of red & yellow cards then we would be home and dry in that we have had less than any other team, however the scoring system is not just based on that. 

Teams are judged on the following criteria:

• Yellow and red cards: If no cards are shown the score will be 10. Every yellow card will deduct this total by 1. A red card will cost a team 3 points in the ranking. If the red card is the result of a second yellow card the deductions of the second yellow card will be ignored. But if a player gets a direct red card after he got a yellow card earlier, the yellow card will be counted as a deduction. This score could become negative
• Positive play: e.g. attacking tactics, acceleration of the game, efforts to gain time, and continued pursuit of goals. A team can score a maximum of 10 points and a minimum of 1 point
• Respect to the opponent: e.g. returning the ball to the opponent at a throw-in, helping an injured opponent: maximum 5 points, minimum 1 point
• Respect to the referee: maximum 5 points, minimum 1 point
• Behaviour of the team officials: maximum 5 points, minimum 1 point
• Behaviour of the fans: maximum 5 points, minimum 1 point

NB: this criterion is ignored when the number of fans is negligible e.g. if there are no fans at all or because of penalty that was given by the UEFA

The total number of points will be divided by the maximum number of points, 40 (or 35 if there are a negligible amount of fans), and multiplied by 10 which will result in a score between 0 and 10. The score is calculated to two decimal points and not rounded up.  

Confusing eh, so there is a long long way to go before either England qualifies for that nominated space and Saints qualify for the spot should it be awarded, so i wouldnt be getting out the holiday brochures for the UEFA qualifying rounds and trips to places like Latvia just yet.   

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