QPR’s last league win was in May, at home to Stoke. Their last away win was a year ago, at Stoke. Can this strange Indian sign Rangers seem to have over the Potters finally bring the R’s a first league victory of 2012/13 at the eleventh time of asking?
Premier League >>> Saturday November 10, 2012 >>> Kick Off 3pm >>> Britannia Stadium, Stoke on Trent
If it is to be another defeat for QPR this weekend – and as the R's have not won an away match for a year I see little reason for optimism – I sense this one will hurt more than most of the others. Stoke City, the last team Rangers managed to beat on the road, are coming at us with basic weapons more commonly used in the 1980s rather than the modern warfare techniques of tippy tappy midfielders we see more often these days but they are about to attack Mark Hughes' men with Peter Crouch and if he does as he's capable of on Saturday then, well, it's going to be a sad day indeed. Frankly QPR would struggle to deal with a team clutching nothing more than the football equivalent of a board with a nail in it at the moment.
Crouch only stayed with Rangers for a year after arriving on the cheap from Tottenham. He scored 12 goals in his maiden season as a professional and was immediately sold when the club fell into administration. Oddly – thankfully – Crouch's appearance for Stoke at Loftus Road last season was his first competitive start against QPR since he left for Portsmouth a decade before and after Djibril Cisse sealed a monumentally important victory with a last minute goal he was kind enough to miss a late sitter that would have all but relegated Rangers. The club's tunnel cam feature on the official website showed Crouch beaming afterwards; almost more delighted than most of the QPR players. That's not to suggest he'd missed deliberately, or played poorly, or been unprofessional – it just goes someway to explaining why Peter Crouch is revered by QPR fans despite being at the club as a professional for less than 12 months.
Crouch was part of the last QPR team that could be counted as truly awful; a team in which he was the lone reason for optimism, and the only redeeming feature of a wretched squad of players. I actually hated that team by the end of the season – genuinely hated. There have been bad QPR teams since then – the weird collection of dodgy foreign signings Paladini put together for Gary Waddock being the main example, but John Gregory arrived and turned that outfit around with help from Lee Cook, Lee Camp, Dexter Blackstock, Ray Jones and others. When he then undid all that good work and started buying people like John Curtis and Danny Nardiello, Luigi De Canio rode to the rescue and thrilled us all with amazing football. The 2000/01 team that Crouch played in was the one that started badly, got worse, and by the end of the campaign was actually embarrassing itself. Who can forget the 5-0 defeats at Preston, a 5-2 set back at Sheff Wed, a 4-2 at Barnsley and so on?
One thing I do remember about that season is that I didn't really believe Gerry Francis' team was in much danger until about this point in the year. The side had actually threatened the play offs briefly the year before and had added England Under 21 defender Clarke Carlisle as well as Crouch during the summer. It started with draws against Birmingham and Palace, won against Crewe and newly relegated Wimbledon who included new £7m signing John Hartson among their ranks at Loftus Road . There were warning signs – a 4-1 home set back against Lomano Tresor Lua Lua-inspired Colchester in the League Cup should have told us all we needed to know – but I thought it would turn out alright in the end. After a 3-1 defeat at Grimsby in November Bradley Allen, playing for the Mariners that night, told Northern the Elder over dinner that he believed Rangers were in massive trouble and grave danger of being relegated. That was the first inkling I had that year, and boy was he right.
Fast forward 11 years and it's now apparent that Rangers are in trouble again. Back then the problem was a collection of players coming to the end of deals, knowing they wouldn't be offered new ones because of the financial state of the club, who weren't good enough to give anything less than 100% and get away with it putting in about 50% and getting found out. Now the problem appears to be big name players who view QPR as a bit beneath them: a bit small time, a club that offered them big money but not one they really feel a lot for. Players who owe QPR their chance of Premier League football –Mackie, Faurlin, Hill, Derry – are falling out of contention and in their place has come a group of more talented, but less committed players who know full well if QPR go down, somebody else will take them on.
Another similarity between that 2000/01 QPR side and the one we watch today is the away form. That 3-1 defeat at Grimsby meant Rangers had played six, lost four and drawn two on the road and they went on to draw four and lose four of the next eight. I attended all of those bar the 5-0 hammering at Preston which clashed with my mum's wedding. Although I wasn't there, the result and the fall out from it was enough to persuade me that my college half term break would not be well spent trekking down to Gillingham for a Tuesday night fixture and so I embarked on my first ever dirty week away with my first proper girlfriend instead.
It was there, in the honeymoon suite of the Riverside bed and breakfast in York , that our naive fumbling was interrupted by the dramatic news that Chris Kiwomya had sealed a 1-0 win. An away win. The first of the season. The only away win of the season as it turned out, in the game I'd missed for crap teenage sex. I hated the bastards even more for that – especially as it provoked a late decision from Northern the Elder and I to rush down to South London that Saturday and see if the revival could continue at Wimbledon . It didn't, we lost 5-0. Bastards indeed.
The whole experience has made me rather paranoid about the current atrocious run of form which so far stretches to 355 days since the last away win which came, strangely, at Stoke 19 league and cup games ago. I've been to every one of those, and I'll keep going until they win one for fear of being shacked up in some grotty guest house when they finally do fluke one like last time.
It's worth remembering that when we went to Norwich on November 26 last year we were going with an away record of three wins from six played. We'd won at Everton, Wolves and Stoke and played some really good stuff in all three. We were very unlucky at Norwich as well, equalising and dominating in the second half before being sucker punched by Fatty Holt off the bench.
Nevertheless, spirits remained high. There followed a defeat at Liverpool which wasn't altogether unexpected and could have been worse but for Radek Cerny's goalkeeping, but could also have been a lot better had Rangers been a bit more ambitious. Likewise the 1-1 draw at Swansea where the R's seemed to settle for a point despite having the home side on the rack. Warnock fielded a scratchy team for a 1-0 defeat at Arsenal with an eye on the subsequent home match with Norwich – also lost – but even there we were only beaten because Shaun Wright-Phillips put the winner on a plate for them. The 1-1 draw at MK Dons in the FA Cup was a woeful performance that cost Neil Warnock his job – it smacked at the time of a lost dressing room, but what has transpired since would suggest we'd have been better off leaving Warnock to get on with his job.
Hughes began at Newcastle with an uninspiring display and 1-0 defeat. Things were better at Aston Villa where the R's surged into a two goal lead, but they were again overly negative in the second half and ended up clinging on for a draw against a poor team. They were three nil down by half time in the subsequent six pointer at Blackburn when only the introduction of Jamie Mackie added respectability the R's scarcely deserved. They were better in the next match at Bolton , and unfortunate with a clutch of refereeing decisions, but beaten all the same.
Rangers lost their last five away matches last season, when they were winning all their home matches, with barely a whimper. Comfortably, easily beaten by Sunderland (3-1), Man Utd (2-0), West Brom (1-0) and Chelsea (6-1) before the final day at Man City where they almost won, and perhaps would have done had they not known they were safe before injury time began, but still managed to complete just 82 passes in 98 minutes of football on the day and eventually lost 3-2.
This season they were fortunate to draw 1-1 at Norwich after a shambolic performance, competitive but never really to the point of getting a result at Man City (3-1), excellent but naïve at Tottenham (2-1), a defensive shambles at West Brom (3-2) and again punished for lacking ambition and getting a man stupidly sent off at Arsenal (1-0). When Rangers did attack, in injury time with ten men, they went close to scoring three times in three minutes having barely registered a shot across the 90 before that.
Which brings us all the way back round to Stoke again. It would be very much like football to kick up a surprise away win here – Stoke have been reasonably poor this season and QPR have won four of their six trips to this ground – but having sat through three interviews this week with Mark Hughes and his coaching staff where the overriding message that's come through to me is "we're not sure why this is happening" I have strong doubts.
For reference, here's the team we fielded in this match last season: the last QPR 11 to actually win an away game and the marks out of ten they were given by LFW after the match. Note not only how much the team has changed, but more importantly the amount of players who were important to the victory that day and are no longer in the team for one reason or another. That, as much as anything else, is why it's been a year since a win like it was last achieved.
QPR: Kenny 6, Young 7 (Orr 77, 6), Ferdinand 6, Gabbidon 7, Hill 7, Wright-Phillips 7, Barton 7, Faurlin 8, Traore 8, Mackie 7, Helguson 9
Goals: Helguson 22 (assisted Traore), 54 (assisted Barton), Young 44 (assisted Mackie)
Links >>> Opposition Focus >>> Betting >>> History >>> Referee >>> Podcast
Team News: Judging by the comments from the coaching staff this week we may be just as well drawing the team out of a hat. Ji Sung Park remains sidelined along with long term absentee Fabio Da Silva and – surprise, surprise – Kieron Dyer but all three are expected to be in contention for Southampton next week. Stephane Mbia serves the second game of his three match ban and Ryan Nelsen has missed some training this week giving Hughes a bit of a headache at centre half. In all likelihood it’s going to be Nelsen and Ferdinand, but I’d dearly like to see Clint Hill selected against a team that is all about power and strength rather than speed – I’d fancy him a lot more than Ferdinand at present. Andy Johnson is out for the season.
Stoke are without long throw expert Rory Delap as he prepares to go in for a hernia operation, and Michael Owen whose troublesome hamstring is playing up once again. Neither have been first team regulars so far this season. The absence of Marc Wilson on the other hand continues to be keenly felt with Stoke now vulnerable in the left back slot without him. He is missing until February with a broken leg.
Elsewhere: No early Saturday game in the Premier League this weekend means six fixtures kick off the campaign at 3pm. Many eyes will be fixed on St Mary's where Nigel Adkins is said to be on the brink of the sack as his bottom-placed Southampton side host Swansea City . Wouldn't it be just QPR's luck for him to be sacked just before the Saints come to Loftus Road next week? Southampton have at least won once this season, which is more than can be said for the R's and Reading. While Mark Hughes' men are attempting to break their duck at Stoke, Reading host Norwich City at the Madejski Stadium. Another manager starting to come under a little bit of pressure is Sunderland 's Martin O'Neil as they struggle for wins and form – a trip to rampant Everton this weekend is not what they need. Arsenal could probably do with somebody a little less adventurous and in form than Martin Jol's attractive Fulham team this weekend as well.
The evening match on ESPN on Saturday is Aston Villa v Man Utd – Villa have won just one of the last 33 meetings between the sides. On Sunday it's Man City v Spurs in the early match, and the racist derby between Chelsea and Liverpool in the afternoon. Sandwiched between the two is Newcastle v West Ham at St James' Park.
Referee: Rangers were refereed five times by Martin Atkinson last season, but have their first appointment with the West Yorkshire official this weekend in their twelfth match of the campaign. Perhaps the reason for that is the way things went in his last Rangers appointment at Bolton Wanderers in a crucial six pointer during last season's relegation battle. Atkinson and his assistant Bob Pollock failed to spot Clint Hill's header had crossed the line by a good four feet and then slowly got worse from there, allowing Darren Pratley to commit a whole raft of bookable offences without punishment and denying Rangers an obvious penalty in injury time. So, good to see him back this weekend at the worst possible moment then. Full QPR case file available here.
Stoke: The Potters have nine points to their name, and just one victory, which would ordinarily put them in serious trouble, but the current bottom three are so God awful at the moment they’re keeping their heads above water. Their tally so far is their worst at this stage of any of their Premier League campaigns so far. The problems are clear – they’ve kept clean sheets in three of their four home games but only scored three goals themselves, and only Peter Crouch has scored for Stoke at the Britannia Stadium this year. In addition, their away record is almost as lousy as QPR’s with no win in 14 road trips and only eight goals scored in those. A good defence and poor attack usually means draws – and their six so far this season is the most in the division along with Sunderland. Here’s a couple of stereotype busters for you – Stoke didn’t score a single goal from a Rory Delap long throw last season (they did get two from Ryan Shotton throws mind), and they’ve conceded more goals from set pieces this season than any other team.
QPR: Well, if you’re into straw clutching then we couldn’t really be playing anybody better than Stoke. Rangers have won four of their six visits to the Britannia Stadium – despite often coming into the games in poor form – and have only lost six of 15 visits to Stoke City either here or at the Victoria Ground. QPR’s 1-0 victory against Stoke at the end of last season not only helped secure Premier League football for another year, but completed Rangers’ only double of the season. As we know it’s now almost a year and 19 matches since QPR last won away from home, but that success did come on this ground in November last year. However, Stoke hoodoo apart, Rangers are pretty dire numbers wise at the moment. Just one clean sheet all season, no league wins, their worst start to a season since 1968 when they failed to win any of their first 13 matches and were relegated, two draws and 12 defeats from 14 away games for Mark Hughes and so on. The only team in premier League history to survive after taking four points from their first ten games was Blackburn Rovers – and they did so after manager Ray Harford resigned after the tenth match.
Betting: Professional odds compiler Owen Goulding tells LoftforWords…
“QPR travel to Staffordshire on the back of a performance that left a lot to be desired against Reading. Not winning or even losing has always been acceptable to the QPR faithful, but lack of effort isn’t and won’t be and it is being shown in abundance at the moment by a number of mercenaries wearing the blue and white. Bosingwa was a disgrace last week, Traore didn’t fair much better and the one player who is always criticised for lack of effort in some quarters Taarabt was one of only a few (Mackie, Nelsen) who seemed to actually care. With that attitude, the last place you need to be going is fortress Britannia and with Mark Hughes spouting the same old lines since Sunday's debacle, I can see nothing but a Stoke win here.
“That said, Stoke are no great shakes at the moment and being from the area I know the locals aren't enamoured with the Potters recent performances themselves. Stoke played out a terrible nil nil with Sunderland and lost to a set piece goal at vastly improving Norwich recently. QPR look like they couldn’t defend a set piece against a team of Oompa Loompa's at present and for this reason my bet of the week is the 'method of first goal' being a header. Available at 4/1 with 188bet, this looks a massive price based on what has been witnessed recently. I'd rather have Franz Ferdinand at centre half other than his namesake and Huth, Shawcross and Crouch must be rubbing their hands in anticipation. Get your money on - it might make the long journey home via London Midland a bit more bearable...”
Prediction: Nathan McAllister, the reigning champion in last year’s Prediction League, must be cursing the day we ever asked him to write this section of the match preview because he hasn’t called a thing right since – the LFW curse in action. Let’s hope he’s wrong this week too…
“This week I was drinking with another disgruntled football fan - a friend who just so happens to be a season ticket holder at Stoke. Naturally we discussed Saturday’s game, both of us trying to convince the other that their team only had to turn up and a victory would inevitably follow. His argument was that, despite all the money Stoke have spent (apparently they are the seventh highest net spenders in the Premier League in recent years) they are still utterly dismal to watch and, if anything, are getting worse. I told him he was overlooking the fact that he does at least support a team who are strong, solid and defensively well organized. This is something he would not be taking for granted if he had been watching QPR over the last few weeks – a team that, as was memorably described on here by kropotkin41 this week, resembles a “flock of chickens that has just spotted the farmer's wife coming out of the house with a cleaver in her hand” when defending set-pieces and balls into the box. If there’s one Premier League team who are ideally set-up to exploit this flaw, it’s Stoke.
“Stoke have the best home defensive record in the Premiership (only one goal conceded in four matches) but also the joint worst home goalscoring record (three in four), along with Sunderland and … guess who. It’s fair to say that goals have been in short supply at the Britannia so far this season, which I guess explains why some Potters fans have become so disgruntled. QPR under Hughes are hardly what you’d call ‘adventurous’ on the road themselves, so a low-scoring game seems a fairly safe bet.
“I guess the script here is that Rangers concede a first half goal from failing to deal with a ball into the box, and thereafter Stoke sit back for the rest of the game and comfortably absorb any pressure that Rangers can muster. Of course, Rangers could conjure up a similar performance to the one that got them a 3-2 win in this fixture one year ago – but as I’m sure we are all too painfully aware that was our last away win, and only three of the players who played in that game are in the team at the moment. I’ve been saying week after week that it’s only a matter of time before Rangers turn their fortunes around and I’m starting to feel a bit daft now, as each hopeful prediction is followed by another woeful performance and/or hard luck story. I’m going with the script.”
Stoke 1 QPR 0
Tweet @loftforwords
Pictures – Action Images