It’s now not a case of if Russell Martin leaves Swansea City it’s more of a case of when. That is of course barring any disastrous last minute hitches for the current Swans head coach with regards to his own personal planning and logistics. So, how did we get to todays formality that once again Swansea City will have a summer of searching, and to an extent rebuilding ?

How did we get here ?
If you recall Russell Martin met with Steve Kaplan, who is a part of the majority ownership of the club in London on Tuesday March 14th this year. This was hours before the away game at Millwall. The conversations many thought were about reassurances and had a positive reflection of Martin’s future employment at Swansea City. And to an extent they were. However, they also surrounded the fact that Swansea City were on an awful run of results, the January transfer window was a complete disaster and Russell Martin was aware the club had been looking for a replacement, and actively doing so. That would have been within then CEO Julian Winter’s gift as much as the majority ownership, and Martin would have felt let down as a result. However, at that time he will have understood the delicate position Winter was in. Kaplan spoke fairly openly we understand regards Martin’s future position, and it wasn’t a healthy one. From that night onwards, and a game the Swans really should have won at Millwall the successful unbeaten run to the end of the season began.

It was either the biggest coincidence in recent seasons or just the jolt out of his managerial malaise Russell Martin needed. From there on in it was positivity all the way. Let’s be honest had the Swans got to the play offs in the form they were in there was no reason why Martin couldn’t have taken the club up. That’s very much by the by now, but surely there’s not many who would argue ?

What were the majority ownership thinking ?
It’s clear Russell Martin was on an awful run of results leading up to that March meeting. Any employer worth its salt would be planning some form of change. What they didn’t bank on, but will be decidedly happy about is the ten game unbeaten streak that occurred after March 14th onwards. All of a sudden Russell Martin was getting noticed, the Swans became a decent outside bet for the play offs and a remarkable turnaround was delivered. The style of play was coming together for sure, and some of those results were impressive.

The clubs majority ownership would have been acutely aware of the distant murmurings of Russell Martin and his coaching philosophy seemingly paying off. And the interest in his overall football philosophy. Indeed they would no longer possibly need to explore removing Russell Martin if needs be in the summer. This is where you either believe the politics of football and it’s many forms or you have your favourites at your club ( owners, manager, players etc ) and you won’t be budged on that regardless of the legitimacy of the information before you.

What goes on behind the scenes in football is akin to any business, people know certain information. Some share it, others sell it, and there’s even some who tell it because they feel let down or no longer wanted ( revenge ) In the majority ownership’s case they could smell money and the opportunity to make a lot more, especially when so called ‘bigger clubs’ are rumoured to be interested in your product. If Russell Martin was to leave the club, those interested in him would have to pay compensation, and we won’t speculate on that because what is written in to the managers contract won’t reflect the actual amount. In most cases it’s more. Especially if the club wanting the product is keen to get a deal done. And then there’s the staff that the departing manager wants to take with him, in Martin’s case he will most certainly want around four of his closest allies in his coaching set up to go with him.

More money.

We also must remember when he came from MK Dons he will make the same demands of his new employers on what players he also desires. And that won’t be just the obvious Swansea City players, we also must remember he has a short list already discussed with Swansea City, and you can be rest assured that will be going with him as well.

Why would the majority ownership let this happen ?
Quite simply, once they became aware of the interest in Martin ( and it wasn’t just Southampton ) they will have been working on the finances that can come in to the club as a result. The compensation isn’t massive for Martin and his staff but it’s a dead sight better than paying to get him to leave. The relationship between Martin and another share holder Jason Levien had deteriorated beyond redemption after January. Levien didn’t want him to spend any more of the clubs money and his ruthless streak came to the fore. It may be news to some but to say Levien wasn’t flavour of the month within the confines of Swansea City Football Club is an understatement. The expressions of frustration from Martin, coupled with four months work sailing down the river from player recruitment specialist Josh Marsh ( I’ve said before call him what you want but that is what he is ) was viewed as wasted time and effort.

CEO Julian Winter was amongst those disappointed staff.

The majority ownership knew that Martin was unhappy, he spoke of his own personal health at the time and the overall effect of those weeks during the window and afterwards. The relationship had broken down causing Director Jake Silverstein ( another American investor ) to choose his position carefully. And that position was never going to be alongside Russell Martin with his investments very much in the hands of Kaplan and Levien. Plus of course their DC United links cement that alliance. Kaplan was busy developing interest in more club investment as well, which although not yet announced seems to be in place, and it is believed to be in excess of the ten million pounds quoted in recent times.

So, with the compensation for Martin ( around 850k) plus extras for others comes other far bigger financial considerations. When Martin leaves for Southampton he will want more than the support of his closest allies within the coaching structure. The dressing room for him will be key. Any rubber stamping of his appointment at Southampton will revolve around at least two players. Those players are Matt Grimes and Joel Piroe. We can leave Ryan Manning out of that for now, he’s out of contract soon. And don’t be surprised if Joel Latibeaudiere doesn’t feature, although he is also out of contract. Martin will want these players purchased and this is where the majority ownership will smell big money. Anyone who thinks Piroe will go for a few million pounds isn’t reading the script. If Piroe and Grimes are a part of the agreement as was Flynn Downes coming to Swansea two years ago then they will go for top dollar. We have our own feelings on this but with Grimes, Piroe and possibly Nathan Wood added after Martin’s compensation package is agreed, the Swans could bank fifteen million pounds. That will very much depend on the Saints desire to negotiate at a high level, but of course if they don’t then those players won’t be Martin’s eyes, ears and support in the St Mary’s dressing room. When you think about it, it’s pretty obvious.

There’s only one reason why the Swansea ownership have cancelled their planned meetings with Russell Martin in Washington DC last week, and that reason is money. Some would say the process of removing Russell Martin came even before the January transfer window opened. There may be some truth in that, but once the decision was made that Martin was on the brink of being sacked and the new manager search was on, from there on in it was already written. The current Swans head coach was a stepping stone for the club to make more money than they could have ever dreamt about earlier on in the year.

The appointment of Andrew Coleman as Chairman, he being a part of another large investment planned (in excess of ten million pounds ) was final confirmation that Martin, Julian Winter and Josh Marsh were about to move on. There is a belief that this new investment group, despite on the outside wanting to give Russell Martin a new contract were actually looking to bring in a summer of change that has arrived in slow time over the last three weeks. Coleman has already displayed his lack of experience with a bizarre tweet two weeks ago, and Jake Silverstein seems happy discussing random things on Reddit with anyone who will listen. Anyone who thinks there’s some form of change of mind in the Swansea boardroom only has to read the Silverstein tweet from two days ago. Coupled with Andrew Coleman’s outburst on leaks and media speculation it seems we now have people at the club with nothing but disdain for any form of news they don’t like. And indeed Russell Martin.

Regardless now of future events Russell Martin has gone, and any business the club hoped to do won’t happen, no player would sign on at a club in its current state. That’s a period of flux which could go on beyond the domestic transfer window opening in around three weeks time. Again this leaves the Swans in limbo and picking up the scraps. However, we also think that Martin’s replacement is already on a list of candidates, and some of the initial work to get a new manager in has already been done. If that happens and the club finds a man capable of withstanding his hopes being dashed at certain periods during his tenure then it could well be a quick replacement. That manager will want his own players, and if the Swans retained list is anything to go by he will need at least six possibly more than capable players.

Why now ? And why with everything seemingly working has this happened ?
You would have thought that the run of results at the end of the season coupled with Russell Martin wanting to stay at one point that next season was the final phase of Swansea City’s return as a force in the Championship. Put the money to one side that the club will likely get for everything we have discussed it basically now boils down to relationships. The lack of support Martin has had regards new contracts for Joel Latibeaudiere and Ryan Manning is one factor. The failure to renew contracts for Joel Piroe ( although what he was offered was decent ) and others including Olivier Ntcham were the straws that broke the camels back in Martin’s view. The effect on his health earlier on in the year, along with these basic renewal requirements was the final straw. His lack of trust in the ownership group had finished any future he had at the club, hence Jake Silverstein’s rant two days ago about him on Twitter. Martin’s closest ally within the group had broken ranks and started his own Boston Tea Party.

Martin had nowhere left to go, nobody left to trust, and definitely wasn’t going to put himself through another season of promises that could be broken, and obligations that wouldn’t be met. You have to remember as well he is not on big money at Swansea City. Not unlike the Steve Cooper situation in 2021 when he left Swansea, Martin has in a way been the victim of his own belated success. His stock is relatively high and the money on offer elsewhere is too good to turn down. Even with considered success next season the whole thing had broken down and was never going to work.

The ownership group at Swansea City, the new investors and whoever else lurks behind the scenes have also determined this outcome. It seems the lack of regard for Martin being able to take the Swans up next season has been overtaken by the desire for multi million pound income as a result his departure. It’s sad because we genuinely believed he would have taken the club to a far higher level next season, but as we said that’s all by the by now.

What we have to rely on now is the clubs owners and interested parties have the wherewithal to bring about some positivity in the coming weeks. And let’s be honest the premier league season hasn’t even finished. The people who control the decisions at the club are by and large intelligent ( leave the social media aside ) experienced and very calculating businessmen. They don’t hold millions of dollars in net worth for no reason. To some they may be viewed as a rich Silver Shield, and mutterings of this being their final attempt to take what they can from the club and run is a thought. However, they won’t want to see this appallingly managed previous few weeks to be seen as their ‘swans song’ There is no club sale planned at the moment and that leaves them with only one alternative. Get the club back in order, ensure the communication structure is adhered to and bring some reassurance and positivity back as soon as is possible.

It’s not the best of days today, but we have had far worse, in fact far, far worse. At least now there’s capital there to turn this around, all we have to rely on now is the clubs owners desire to make it happen. I say that because I’m pretty sure where we are today has been the plan to an extent all along. And if that’s right then there is clearly a plan, albeit a silent one to spearhead change at Swansea City.

But let’s be honest it comes with a lot of graft required, not least a whole lot of luck, and even then we rely upon people who have hardly endeared themselves to the Swansea public in recent times. It’s over to them for now, how long the fans will give them is one thing they have to keep in mind of course.

That is if they really care and this isn’t the biggest ruse since that ball juggling chap tried to buy Manchester United with five quid in his back pocket.

Artwork by Swansea Independent

Freelander added 05:47 - May 22 That is the trouble now at the club to many people got thyere fingers in the pie now and trying to have thyere say in it people who have not got a clue on how to run a football club only interested in making money out of it all the promises Levien and Kaplan said about what they they would do when they took over well all broken promises we got relegated from the Premiership through them with lack of investment and what happened to the parachute payments I ask you all the talk of this so called investment coming in to the club I will be laeve it it when I see it sharks all of them .

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ReslovenSwan1 added 18:05 - May 25 The people you refer to have had their fingers burnt (in the pie) and a carrying substantial losses like the investor highlighted the other day on another thread. They a big enough and ugly enough to not whinge too much. The Trust are content to be diluted to the 5% ownership which they claim is un-dilutable and other that it is has already been diluted. Levien has been running Swansea for 7 years and DC united for over 10 year. DC U has been a monumental financial success and Levein masterminded the construction of a new stadium. He and i his investors are h up $500m. For fans to call him clueless is laughable. You can verify the investment right now on Companies house web page. You are spinning the misinformation of two years ago. Wrong and out of date.

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