Of course every win is vital, but beating the Swans on Sunday is even more so given our current predicament.

Saints would usually go into a home game in confident mood, but with an injury list as long as your arm, it is going to be a case of who we can put out rather than deliberating over possible tactical changes.

This being the case a win is going to be vital because it buys us time and space to manouevre, it has been said that we need 9 wins to be sure about qualifying for the Champions League, if we managed that then we would have 69 points without any draws etc.

However if 40 points is seen as the benchmark to avoid relegation, then 70 points is the same marker to get into 4th in the Premier League, so it is quite clear we have a long way to go and a tough road ahead to qualify.

So far we have averaged effectively 1.91 points per game, if we continue on this average it will give us another 30 points and put us on 72 points which would have been good enough for 3rd in two of the last five years and 4th in four of the last five, the only exception being last season when an exceptionally high 79 points would have been needed.

At this stage last season Liverpool sat 4th with 43 points from 22 games, but they were way behind the top three at that stage.

Go back two seasons and Chelsea were 3rd with 75 points followed by Arsenal on 73, this was a more typical season and at this stage Chelsea had 42 points and were 3rd with Spurs in 4th on 40, very similar to this season.

The Premier League then looked very similar in terms of positions and points gained as it does today, so our target is going to be the 73 points mark.

This being the case then the Swansea game is going to be crucial when we look back on the season in the summer, they say the mark of a good team is its ability to keep winning when its in crisis through injury or bad form, for the visit of the Swans we are likely to have missing 5 players who would have played a major part in that game, Wanyama, Schneiderlin, Alderweireld, Mane & Long, key players out in every area of the field.

But we have to soldier on and if we can beat Swansea with this injury list then it will put a lot of pressure on the teams chasing us and give us leeway.

After the Swansea game we will have some players back from that injury list hopefully for the trip to QPR and we may have Mane back from the Africa Cup Of Nations, so Sunday's fixture is all about keeping ploughing on through adversity.

If we come through the game against Swansea with all three points we will effectively virtually guarantee 8th place as we will be 15 points ahead of them, but more importantly with Liverpool playing West Ham, one of them possibly both will lose ground in 7th/8th.

But more importantly it will be the confidence factor, we came through a difficult week on the road with three wins, but there can be no let up, we have to just keep winning and every time we do it puts us one step nearer that coveted spot.

So come judgement day when the season is finished, this game against Swansea might just prove to be crucial, hopefully it will be seen as a pivotal moment in the season when under great adversity we kept marching on, so that in February as the injured returned we could turn the screw, not have to play catch up.

Photo: Action Images

EasternSaint added 10:43 - Jan 26 On the plus side we have Maya back for starting or cover in central defence. After the last game I can see Gardos back on the bench with Jose and Maya in the middle.
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bstokesaint added 12:24 - Jan 26 I've done some analysis of my own. Basically we need to at least match every result we've had from the first half of the season. Given that we got 33 points and we're already +6 on that benchmark with wins against Man U and Arsenal we'd be looking at 69 points. That should be enough this season. Applying that logic, it's vital we match our win against Swansea earlier in the season.

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Fordy added 13:01 - Jan 26 Another plus is that Sygurdsson will be suspended. I think he's as important to Swansea as any one player is to us.
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BaselSaint added 15:23 - Jan 26 I think Corky will step up and do a good job - even though he had a bit of an off day last week
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ClickInsect added 18:47 - Jan 26 Was it an article in the Echo that was saying nine wins? It does assume that we aren't going to draw many, but we do tend to either win or lose. We are likely to be the bookies favorites for the following: Swansea (H) Queen's Park Raisins (A) West Ham (H) WBA (A) POOLACE (H) Burnley (H) Hull City (H) Stoke (A) Sunderland (A) Foxes (A) Aston Gorilla (H) So 8 from the 11 above & 1 from: Bin Dippers (H) Chelsea (A) Spuds (H) Citeh (A) So I think the answer is..... if the players keep the same level of performance we'll be there and there abouts. I've looked at fixtures in relegation battles before & not been able to give us this good a chance, on a few occasions. That being said, it's still winning 9 premier league games. On paper we might have 4 gimmies at home but you can't take anything for granted.

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