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Remain With or Leave the EU on 16:23 - Jun 4 by union_jack
Interesting. They are farther apart than our good selves.
When I first started to think about it a few months ago, I was convinced the Remain vote would win comfortably. It seems from these won small samples that it may not be that simple.
People in certain places getting panicky I suppose. Whoever they may be!!
I'm not sure that polls on AA's football site are a likely indicator of direction!
The slightly strange thing for me, is that the probable result of an 'out' which is a swing to the right in our government, certainly in the shorter term, is unlikely to be what 'the ordinary hardworking family' (to use a horrible phrase) wants, and yet it seems that it's that grouping that is most anti remain. It's quite counter intuitive in the way that Labour supporters switching to UKIP is counter intuitive.
It seems that the immigration issue is paramount for many people, yet in many ways it is a red herring.
I also think that some people are saying that they'll vote out and they won't when it comes to it - it's the same as people refusing to admit they'll vote Conservative in polls yet do on the day.
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Remain With or Leave the EU on 17:54 - Jun 4 with 1851 views
Remain With or Leave the EU on 17:51 - Jun 4 by exiledclaseboy
I completely agree with the first part.
I couldn't disagree more with the second part. That's a delusion held by those who want to vote to leave safe in the knowledge that we'll end up staying in anyway. It won't happen like that.
But yes, Cammers' face would be hilarious. As would his 24 June visit to the Queen to tender his resignation.
I bet she'll be purring with pleasure.
The creatures outside looked from pig to man, and from man to pig, and from pig to man again; but already it was impossible to say which was which.
Remain With or Leave the EU on 17:51 - Jun 4 by exiledclaseboy
I completely agree with the first part.
I couldn't disagree more with the second part. That's a delusion held by those who want to vote to leave safe in the knowledge that we'll end up staying in anyway. It won't happen like that.
But yes, Cammers' face would be hilarious. As would his 24 June visit to the Queen to tender his resignation.
Boris' face would be less hilarious.
For anyone that thinks Cameron is awful, he's nothing compared to the utter sh*t that is Boris Johnson.
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Remain With or Leave the EU on 18:00 - Jun 4 with 1834 views
Remain With or Leave the EU on 17:58 - Jun 4 by londonlisa2001
Boris' face would be less hilarious.
For anyone that thinks Cameron is awful, he's nothing compared to the utter sh*t that is Boris Johnson.
True. But still, there's nothing more entertaining than an unexpected change of PM and the thought of Boris in charge and the ensuing Tory civil war clusterf*ck is amusing.
Remain With or Leave the EU on 17:54 - Jun 4 by londonlisa2001
I'm not sure that polls on AA's football site are a likely indicator of direction!
The slightly strange thing for me, is that the probable result of an 'out' which is a swing to the right in our government, certainly in the shorter term, is unlikely to be what 'the ordinary hardworking family' (to use a horrible phrase) wants, and yet it seems that it's that grouping that is most anti remain. It's quite counter intuitive in the way that Labour supporters switching to UKIP is counter intuitive.
It seems that the immigration issue is paramount for many people, yet in many ways it is a red herring.
I also think that some people are saying that they'll vote out and they won't when it comes to it - it's the same as people refusing to admit they'll vote Conservative in polls yet do on the day.
Anyone who thinks voting out will make a material difference to net migration, or indeed target 'muslims' or refugees, is in cloud cuckoo land.
Also of course, our demographics show that unless we increase immigration over the next 50 years we, as mostly old codgers, will starve.
I guess those arguments don't play well in the obsessed media who just want out. I wish there was a more grown up argument, I really do. May as well toss a coin at the moment, or just vote according to your risk appetite.
Remain With or Leave the EU on 18:00 - Jun 4 by exiledclaseboy
True. But still, there's nothing more entertaining than an unexpected change of PM and the thought of Boris in charge and the ensuing Tory civil war clusterf*ck is amusing.
He'd stay as PM for the best part of 4 years. I dread to think what he could destroy in that amount of time. The Labour Party will not be in a great place if we vote out anyway, so it's not like they will be able to take advantage.
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Remain With or Leave the EU on 18:16 - Jun 4 with 1810 views
Remain With or Leave the EU on 18:10 - Jun 4 by londonlisa2001
He'd stay as PM for the best part of 4 years. I dread to think what he could destroy in that amount of time. The Labour Party will not be in a great place if we vote out anyway, so it's not like they will be able to take advantage.
Don't forget though that the Tories only have a tiny parliamentary majority so regardless of how much of a prick Boris is, he still has to work out the maths. Plus the party would be so torn apart we could be looking at an election sooner than that. It'll only take a few Tory rebels to trigger it. I'm speculating wildly here obviously but these are thoroughly entertaining times to be a politics watcher.
Remain With or Leave the EU on 18:16 - Jun 4 by exiledclaseboy
Don't forget though that the Tories only have a tiny parliamentary majority so regardless of how much of a prick Boris is, he still has to work out the maths. Plus the party would be so torn apart we could be looking at an election sooner than that. It'll only take a few Tory rebels to trigger it. I'm speculating wildly here obviously but these are thoroughly entertaining times to be a politics watcher.
Yes and if an election happened, soon after would be a Scottish Referendum and a permanent Tory government well to the right of what we have at the moment.
Anyone hoping that an 'out' will be a good kicking for the Tories should think about the consequences within a few years.
Remain With or Leave the EU on 18:02 - Jun 4 by monmouth
Anyone who thinks voting out will make a material difference to net migration, or indeed target 'muslims' or refugees, is in cloud cuckoo land.
Also of course, our demographics show that unless we increase immigration over the next 50 years we, as mostly old codgers, will starve.
I guess those arguments don't play well in the obsessed media who just want out. I wish there was a more grown up argument, I really do. May as well toss a coin at the moment, or just vote according to your risk appetite.
Exactly - it is a red herring
On QTime this week, people keep on about immigration needing to drop - well cut off the non EU migration then (not talking about refugees) and half of the net migration has gone.
[Post edited 4 Jun 2016 18:34]
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Remain With or Leave the EU on 18:33 - Jun 4 with 1775 views
Remain With or Leave the EU on 18:30 - Jun 4 by londonlisa2001
Yes and if an election happened, soon after would be a Scottish Referendum and a permanent Tory government well to the right of what we have at the moment.
Anyone hoping that an 'out' will be a good kicking for the Tories should think about the consequences within a few years.
Remain With or Leave the EU on 18:30 - Jun 4 by londonlisa2001
Yes and if an election happened, soon after would be a Scottish Referendum and a permanent Tory government well to the right of what we have at the moment.
Anyone hoping that an 'out' will be a good kicking for the Tories should think about the consequences within a few years.
It would be interesting to see a Scottish referendum with the value of oil so low. Would the result be cut and dry.
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Remain With or Leave the EU on 18:36 - Jun 4 with 1763 views
Remain With or Leave the EU on 18:33 - Jun 4 by exiledclaseboy
Wow your speculation is even wilder than mine!
Really? Think that's exactly what would happen. If we vote out the Scots will definitely go. Any electoral maths shows that will mean a move to the right for England and Wales.
It'll be an instant move to the right in the Tory party.
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Remain With or Leave the EU on 18:41 - Jun 4 with 1759 views
Remain With or Leave the EU on 18:16 - Jun 4 by exiledclaseboy
Don't forget though that the Tories only have a tiny parliamentary majority so regardless of how much of a prick Boris is, he still has to work out the maths. Plus the party would be so torn apart we could be looking at an election sooner than that. It'll only take a few Tory rebels to trigger it. I'm speculating wildly here obviously but these are thoroughly entertaining times to be a politics watcher.
I'll go back to my thoughts on the coalition, which I thought would go the full term.
If the vote results in leaving then we could see a new PM.
An election sooner than later? Imo no way - they like the power .
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Remain With or Leave the EU on 18:42 - Jun 4 with 1753 views
Remain With or Leave the EU on 18:36 - Jun 4 by londonlisa2001
Really? Think that's exactly what would happen. If we vote out the Scots will definitely go. Any electoral maths shows that will mean a move to the right for England and Wales.
It'll be an instant move to the right in the Tory party.
I agree that a s second Scottish referendum is inevitable in the event of a leave vote. I also agree that they're likely to vote to leave the UK in that scenario. But I don't agree that necessarily leads to permanent Tory rule in the rest of the U.K. Scotland has 60 seats out of 650 (600 next time round), vast swathes of the largest population centres in England and Wales vote Labour. And the boundaries in what's left of the U.K. would have to be redrawn to reflect the new reality.
Remain With or Leave the EU on 18:32 - Jun 4 by londonlisa2001
Exactly - it is a red herring
On QTime this week, people keep on about immigration needing to drop - well cut off the non EU migration then (not talking about refugees) and half of the net migration has gone.
[Post edited 4 Jun 2016 18:34]
I've heard that the figures were around 50/50, but from memory didn't Frank Field say that of the 300k per year only 50k were outside the EU
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Remain With or Leave the EU on 18:44 - Jun 4 with 1747 views
Remain With or Leave the EU on 18:42 - Jun 4 by exiledclaseboy
I agree that a s second Scottish referendum is inevitable in the event of a leave vote. I also agree that they're likely to vote to leave the UK in that scenario. But I don't agree that necessarily leads to permanent Tory rule in the rest of the U.K. Scotland has 60 seats out of 650 (600 next time round), vast swathes of the largest population centres in England and Wales vote Labour. And the boundaries in what's left of the U.K. would have to be redrawn to reflect the new reality.
That may be the case, but the reality is that you lose 10% of the seats almost all of which are always to the left (whether that be SNP or Labour). Withdrawing 10% who always vote to the left of the UK consensus has to mean a shift to the right for the remainder.
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Remain With or Leave the EU on 18:49 - Jun 4 with 1732 views
Remain With or Leave the EU on 18:51 - Jun 4 by 3swan
And that says it all about this campaign.
Facts (ha ha) thrown around from both sides without any real challenge.
As much as we don't like it immigration will be the key to making peoples mind up.
It's a function of the way they spin the figures. The reason he's wrong is because you have to assume that the vast majority of migrants out of the UK are to other EU states. So saying 250k or whatever is the gross in from the EU is probably right, but the migration away needs to be used against that to get to a proportion of the 300k NET inwards migration.
Caveat - I don't know the split, but I'm assuming more Brits leave for France or Spain than for Pakistan. I guess you'd have to knock off the 500 or so that have gone to Syria but I assume they don't include them as emigrants :-)
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Remain With or Leave the EU on 18:59 - Jun 4 with 1710 views
Remain With or Leave the EU on 18:48 - Jun 4 by londonlisa2001
That may be the case, but the reality is that you lose 10% of the seats almost all of which are always to the left (whether that be SNP or Labour). Withdrawing 10% who always vote to the left of the UK consensus has to mean a shift to the right for the remainder.
Yes, I completely agree with your assessment.
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Remain With or Leave the EU on 19:03 - Jun 4 with 1698 views
Remain With or Leave the EU on 18:56 - Jun 4 by londonlisa2001
It's a function of the way they spin the figures. The reason he's wrong is because you have to assume that the vast majority of migrants out of the UK are to other EU states. So saying 250k or whatever is the gross in from the EU is probably right, but the migration away needs to be used against that to get to a proportion of the 300k NET inwards migration.
Caveat - I don't know the split, but I'm assuming more Brits leave for France or Spain than for Pakistan. I guess you'd have to knock off the 500 or so that have gone to Syria but I assume they don't include them as emigrants :-)
Which is what I had heard, but call it spin, or misinformation, the general public is no wiser in what should be an important decision.
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Remain With or Leave the EU on 08:06 - Jun 5 with 1546 views
If David Cameron wants to do one thing it's probably best for me to do the exact opposite. He even said it could lead to war ffs. I don't believe a word he says or all the figures and various stats they're producing
My worry is that it will be rigged, already reports on social media outlets that EU nationals have been sent polling cards and I can't understand why polls suggest a close vote either, social media suggests otherwise
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