QPR have ten games left to save their season, starting at Crystal Palace on Saturday. At least five wins are required, according to manager Chris Ramsey, and time is short.
Ten games to go and Chris Ramsey says his team have to win five of them to have a shot at staying in the division. Having taken 28 games to win six, you don’t have to have watched a lot of QPR this season to know that’s a tall order. If you have watched a lot of QPR this season, particularly away from home, you’ll know it’s even more desperate than that.
At Sunderland four games ago it looked like Ramsey had hit on a winning formula that head Leroy Fer front and centre of the attack, and Matt Phillips bombing on down the right. Fer, naturally, picked up a bad injury that night and you can point to similar moments in the following three games — Joey Barton’s mindless sending off at Hull, two very strong penalty shouts against Spurs, two shots against Arsenal that beat the goalkeeper all ends up but flashed inches wide of the post.
QPR aren’t getting thrashed. There’s been no repeat of the Liverpool home game from three Christmases ago when Harry Redknapp was forced to make defensive substitutions at 3-0 down to stop it being a complete blood bath. They’re in games, and with a bit of luck here or a refereeing decision there they could have won several of the games they’ve lost. But when it keeps happening in the manner it is, there’s a pervading sense that Rangers aren’t quite good enough.
Nobody gets relegated through bad luck. When QPR survived on the final day of the 2011/12 season they did so because Bolton conceded two goals at Stoke that, on another day with another referee, wouldn’t have stood. But Bolton didn’t miraculously find themselves in the bottom three that day because of bad fortune and gross injustice — they were crap all season. The week before they’d been 2-0 up at home to West Brom with ten minutes left and drawn.
If QPR are relegated there will be moments we all look back on during long summer nights in beer gardens and say "that was the game, that was the sending off, that was the missed penalty, that was the chance that cost us”. QPR have handed six points to Hull this season by missing a penalty and getting a man sent off. Hull are dreadful this year. That might well be the one most look at. But, at the end of the day, QPR have won only six games so far this season and they haven’t beaten anybody higher up the table than thirteenth placed West Brom — and the Baggies were in the bottom three when they lost at Loftus Road. QPR’s level would seem to be third or fourth bottom, judging by who they’ve beaten, so they’re paring the course.
That hope persists owes much to a fixture list that brings Newcastle, West Ham and Everton to Loftus Road in the coming weeks. Three sides in poor form, three sides with nothing to play for, one side who will have spent most of the two days before the game winding their way back from Kiev — Everton have lost five of their six Sunday fixtures after Europa League games this season. Victories in those three games are a must.
I spent my Chelsea Out of Europe Day in a bar in Kings Cross sitting behind a gang of youths whose idea of a good time is to watch their beloved Chelsea win in Europe while they leap around yelling out bantaaah like ganstaaahs from the ghetto blood you get me? One of them was wearing a Reading shirt. How I laughed. And yet, at the back of my mind, thought that playing Chelsea at home at 13.30 on a Sunday, as we now do, rather than 17.30 on a Saturday, as we would have done if they’d won, is a missed opportunity. Even for the biggest games, the atmosphere at the early kick offs is insipid. Chelsea showed again in the week that they’re mentally susceptible when the going gets tough — Jose Mourinho’s siege mentality is so extreme it’s actually made his players unable to cope with injustice, or when they feel things have gone against them. QPR have terrified them before at Loftus Road and could have done so again. A nice leisurely April Sunday lunch fixture I’m not so confident about. It’s Newcastle, Everton and West Ham or bust.
But what also has to happen in addition to that is a couple of away wins. Leicester looks the most obvious chance for one of those, although as that’s the last day of the season needing to go there and win adds all manner of added baggage and complications. Trips to Liverpool and Man City don’t offer up much hope and that leaves Palace, West Brom and Villa.
The trip to Selhurst Park first up looks tough. Even without inspirational captain Mile Jedinak, the home team will boast a tough, physical midfield. QPR will be heavily reliant on Sandro and Karl Henry. The former has shown himself incapable of offering much after an hour. He needs to go for 90 tomorrow.
But to go from six wins in 28 to five from ten, you have to start doing things you haven’t done before. Palace have lost seven and won just three at home this season, more defeats than any other team in the league and the second worst home record behind Leicester. A win here, and another against Everton next week, and watch the pigeons scatter.
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Julian Speroni is moved away from referee Kevin Friend at the end of the last meeting between these two sides on this ground in the 2010/11 season. The Argentinean goalkeeper was adamant Heidar Helguson’s last minute winner should have been disallowed for handball. The referee was correct, promotion-bound QPR won 2-1 and their unbeaten start to the season that would eventually stretch to 19 matches continued.
Crystal Palace also have a midfield mainstay suspended with Mile Jedinak in the middle of a four game ban for a deliberate elbow at West Ham a fortnight ago. Glenn Murray is back from a suspension picked up for a red card at Upton Park — a game where he scored twice and caused the Hammers no end of problems all day. He’s likely to go straight back in too with Fraizer Campbell and Maruoane Chamakh out and Yaya Sanogo coming back from a knock. Jordon Mutch is denied an outing against the club that sold him in January by a calf injury.
Elsewhere: Another one of those weird weekends where everybody at the bottom of the table seems to be playing everybody else. Expect Tim Sherwood to be on the pitch, punching the air, long after the players who achieved the victory have left the field, making sure everybody knows it’s all about him, if Villa do indeed beat Sunderland. The Mackems presumably just grateful to get through a week without a statutory rape claim. Leicester v Tigers Tigers Rah Rah Rah is an odd one — Hull win and they’re all but out of it, but a Leicester win brings them back into play. Pray for rain
Pray that Man City’s billion pound team turns up at 17.30 as well, and not the feckless wasters who’ve already given up a two goal lead and a point to Burnley once this season.
Big Fat Sam’s Big Fat Brand of Entertaining Football has, as usual, given way to a string of excuses about injuries — which no other team gets, you understand. His Evening Standard piece tonight should have been read with a violin backing track. He’ll be gone in the summer, probably replaced by Slaven Billic, and in the meantime the Hammers look fair game. Arsenal first up to take a pot shot.
West Brom v Meticulous Mark and the Taffia is the remaining Saturday fixture — good luck with that one.
Big Racist John and the Referee Baiters are at home to Southampton on Sunday while Louis Van Gaal plays Spurs. Everton v Newcastle looks like a battle of two sides who don’t want to win and Liverpool v Swansea on Monday will be such a Brendan Rodgers love in you might want to bring a sick bag with you.
Referee: Lee Mason was always known as the referee who incorrectly sent off Shaun Derry at Old Trafford after Ashley Young’s obvious dive from an offside position. He now has the Gary O’Neil red card at Wembley in the May play-off final to add to his list, although that was rather more blatant. This is his second QPR appointment of the season following October’s home win against Aston Villa. Full case file available here.
QPR: QPR’s form is dreadful, there’s no two ways about it. One win in 12 games in all competitions and just two draws in the other 11 outings. The first away win, and only one in 14 road trips, at Sunderland has been followed by three successive 2-1 defeats. Since Charlie Austin’s hat trick against West Brom on December 20, Rangers have played a dozen games and not scored more than a single goal in any of them. QPR have never lost a top flight game on this ground — five encounters — and won their last two trips here 2-0 and 2-1 under Neil Warnock in 2010. The 160 shots on target faced by Robert Green this season is the most of any Premier League team.
Prediction: Reigning Prediction League champion WestonSuperR called the Arsenal and Spurs games spot on. Rangers fans will be hoping he’s wrong this week…
"Had we been playing Palace with a full strength side I'd be confident of at least getting a point, however with side so badly hit by injury and suspension it is hard to go to Selhurst Park with any genuine confidence.
"When you also consider our atrocious away form it gets slightly harder to predict a victory. Add into the equation our current form - nine losses in all competitions from the previous ten matches - and you have to be the ultimate optimist to predict anything other than a Palace victory. I do think we will put up a fight and don't think we will be totally outclassed by a team that on paper is not as good as ours. I worry that Pardew has made such a fine start and Palace will see this as a game if they win will almost guarantee them a place in the Premier League next season.
"Sadly I am on a hat-trick of correct predictions having gone for both Arsenal and Tottenham to beat us 2-1. I did warn everyone in week one I was a bit of pessimist! Let's hope I am completely wrong with my hat-trick attempt.”
John’s Prediction: Palace 1-0 QPR. No scorer.
LFW’s Prediction: Palace 1-1 QPR. Scorer — Charlie Austin
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