The year-long run of dire results from which QPR are yet to really emerge started on a Friday night at St Andrew's, and the R's are back there tonight live on Sky once more hoping to shrug off the disappointment of another poor week at Loftus Road.

Birmingham (3-2-2 WWLDLL 8th) v QPR (2-1-4 LLLWLD 20th)

Mercantile Credit Trophy >>> Friday September 22, 2023 >>> Kick Off 20.00 >>> Weather – Showers >>> St Andrew’s, Birmingham

It’s been a largely frustrating week in which Queens Park Rangers failed to capitalise on and build the momentum and positive vibes created before the international break by wins at Cardiff and Middlesbrough.

The home record remains club record levels of embarrassingly dire – now one win in 19 at Loftus Road. It’s now just four games shy of a full league season and unless Coventry or Blackburn are beaten in W12 in the next two home matches a full year will have been completed with just that one scrappy victory against Watford to show for it. With the improved performances you would have hoped, even if just by the law of averages, that a nourishing win may have been forthcoming against Sunderland, or particularly a struggling Swansea outfit. Sadly, the Jack Colback’s brain explosion ended the first attempt before it had really begun, and then on Tuesday QPR failed to reach the levels they had in wins at Cardiff or Boro, or even defeats to Ipswich and Southampton, when had they done so victory would surely have been theirs.

The Swansea game was a particularly big chance missed. A poor side, playing poorly. Given the talent drain from that corner of South Wales, their form, their managerial situation, the mood around the place after a weekend defeat in their big derby match, that felt like a huge opportunity. They looked like us under Neil Critchley, not having their new manager and absolutely there for the taking. Lyndon Dykes’ spectacular last minute equaliser was, really, stark consolation on a bleak night. You won’t play many poorer sides than the Swans, we have to capitalise on the rare occasions this year we play a worse team.

The best case scenario is that QPR are now better away from home. Can you imagine? What a time to be alive. Every football game is 11v11 on roughly the same patch of grass, but its medieval thinking and customs means that apparently you approach games differently if the noise is for or against you and if the trip to the stadium involved a bus and a hotel. Within those conventions the home team is expected to get on the front foot and attack their visitors more, and when they do that QPR are able to sit in a deep, narrow shape around the edge of their own box – conveniently exactly the area of the pitch Gareth Ainsworth spent the vast majority of his miniscule budget trying to clog with veteran coagulant. Unless said veteran coagulant loses its damn mind and gets sent off after a quarter of an hour we seem relatively comfortable doing that, and then it’s all the pace and skill of Ilias Chair, Sinclair Armstrong and the so-far-excellent Paul Smyth to break on over committed sides. Our status as everybody’s relegation favourites helps this still further. Home teams, and home fans, expect to beat us, which brings its own pressures and complacencies, and we saw that all play out to the letter at the Riverside Stadium a couple of weeks back. At home, where we’re expected to go and seize the initiative, not so much.

The results back this up. In stark contrast to the shameful results at Loftus Road, QPR have won four and drawn one of their last seven road games. The draw, at West Brom, could easily have been a win had either Andre Dozzell or Taylor Richards scored when they should have done in the final ten minutes. One of the defeats, at Southampton, would also have been a far more positive result with better finishing from Chair, Smyth and others.

The worst case scenario is the one we anticipated during the summer: we’re not very good. Swansea, perhaps, was more like us and what we’re going to be than Middlesbrough. The 2-1 defeat at Southampton we’ve been talking up looks worse and worse with every passing humiliation of Russell Martin’s football extremism – they’ve lost all three games since we played there, and conceded ten times doing it.

We’ll get more clues on Friday night at Birmingham City in our first live Sky Friday night of the season. The Blues have been gagging for a takeover more than most clubs, with team and stadium locked in a decaying race to the bottom, and having finally got one this summer they did big, early, eye-catching business with a dozen players, all in their early 20s, brought in double lively. That boost in personnel and mood music led to a fast start and four wins, but in a number of cases – including our own former wastes of space Tyler Roberts and Ethan Laird – they’ve taken chances and got good deals by ignoring injury records. Lo, half a dozen absentees in the last fortnight – including our own former wastes of space Tyler Roberts and Ethan Laird – bring them into this match with three defeats and a draw from four.

Our own horrific downfall, which for all the positive chat of the last few weeks I personally think probably has someway to go yet, really kicked into earnest gear in this fixture a year ago – another Friday night Sky game. Mick Beale’s QPR were top of the Championship, but Jake Clarke-Salter, Stefan Johansen and precious Tyler #artthroughpain were all gone before half time and although there was a late rally and a missed penalty we were pretty well beaten on the night. It sparked a run of two wins from 28 games.

Prior to that though this tended to be a happy place for QPR to be a visiting team: the R’s had won five and drawn one of eight visits. Repeat that dose tonight and it might be all ‘I hear you’re an away team now father’. Fail for a third time this week and that long bleak winter we anticipated at the start of the season might start to become a reality.

Links >>> The road to Wembley – History >>> Hey there Matthew Blue – Interview >>> Donohue in charge – Referee >>> Birmingham City official website >>> St Andrew’s — Ground Guide >>> Small Heath Alliance — Message Board >>> We Are Birmingham — Podcast >>> Birmingham Mail — Local Press

90’s Football Conspiracy Theories No.6 In The Series – Blackburn’s title winning centre back Colin Hendry has been "tap water free" for 15 years, complaining that government additives made his ejaculate taste like "old gravy".

Below the fold

Team News: Gareth Ainsworth remains without Jack Colback who is game two into his three match ban for the red card against Sunderland. The decision to keep Lyndon Dykes on the bench and give Chris Willock that spot against Swansea was not a conspicuous success, and a point was only salvaged late on by Dykes after he came on. The logical assumption is that they may now, instead, revert to the system that won an away game at Cardiff without Colback, with Dykes and Armstrong together in attack, though this may all be dictated by who has come through fit enough to play game three of this hectic six day week. US international right sided defender Reggie Cannon, released by Boavista over the summer, is heavily tipped to be signing as a free agent shortly but that has not been done in time for involvement at St Andrew’s. Jimmy Dunne currently remains the only injury absentee.

I want you to brace yourselves for the shock of the news that we won’t be seeing either Tyler Roberts or Ethan Laird tomorrow night. Tyler’s now into month 15 of his “bit of a calf problem” and is presumably running out of body space for his “#artfrompain” tattoos. As ever, “couple more weeks for Tyler” has quietly morphed into “probably not before Christmas”. Similarly Ethan’s fast start and “oh my God we’ve got the best right back in the Championship” has slipped into “still a couple of weeks away” with some non-descript muscle tightness. Do stop me if you’ve heard any of this before.

Better news for the Blues elsewhere. Lee Buchanan was sent off late in the weekend defeat at Watford but has served his one match on the naughty step in the midweeker at Preston and returns at left back. Siriki Dembele hasn’t played since August 19, at which point he’d participated in three wins and a draw, so his return after four games without a win will be most welcome. Lukas Jutkiewicz is also back for the first time since a red card ended his participation in the League Cup defeat to Cardiff at the end of August.

Elsewhere: The early season form in the Mercantile Credit Trophy continues to be split between exactly what we expected, and some wild surprises, with very little in between.

In our season preview we said Leicester City would absolutely piss it, and they are doing – eight wins from nine games, and a potentially tricky week of Southampton and Norwich away has brought six points and six goals scored ahead of this weekend’s visit from Bristol City. We also thought Ipswich Town would go very well and finish top four – which is exactly where they are now following the midweek win at St Mary’s prior to a home game with Blackburn Rovers. Southampton’s early struggles – “everything they need to get promoted but don’t trust this manager” – are also no surprise, but a team we did expect to challenge for the title, Middlesbrough, are now rooted to the foot of the table ahead of their clash at the Riverside. Meanwhile the table is actually currently led by Preston Knob End, who absolutely nobody fancied, and they’ve got a great chance to further that away at lowly Rotherham whose midweek loss at Millwall means they’ve now lost all five away matches so far conceding 17 goals in the process. Sunderland, who we also tipped for the top four, are motoring now after two big away wins this week ahead of their Sunday game at home to Cardiff.

Neil Warnock’s decision stay on at Huddersfield looked a tall order from the start, and he bowed out with a midweek draw against Stoke. The Terriers are at Coventry for Monday Night Football with Darren Moore walking straight into that job. The disaster he left behind at Sheff Wed, again surprising nobody, rolls onto Swansea, who we expected much better from, still awaiting a first win of the season.

Leeds continue to truck along reasonably, but uninspiringly. They looked pretty slick against a poor Millwall side last week, but were only the above astonishing miss away from a midweek loss at Hull. It’s Watford at home for them, Hull are at Stoke who look like they’re going to flatter to deceive all year all over again, while Rowett’s Wawll are at West Brom. An attractive fixture between Plymouth and high flying Norwich rounds out your weekend list.

Referee: Matt Donohue hasn’t refereed Birmingham since January 2022, when he was in charge of QPR’s 2-1 win at St Andrew’s just before the Mark Warburton promotion push went south. Details.

Form

Birmingham: A desperately needed and long overdue takeover of Birmingham City in the summer saw the Blues replenish their squad with an eye-catching haul of a dozen signings of whom Blackpool midfielder Keshi Anderson (28) was the only one aged over 25. A trio of QPR disasters – Tyler Roberts, Dion Sanderson and Ethan Laird – were among that number. Roberts and Laird weren’t the only ones arriving at St Andrew’s with chequered injury records and so perhaps it’s no surprise John Eustace’s team started well when everybody was fit – four wins and a draw from the first five matches – but as injuries and suspensions have quickly chewed into the squad things have started to slide. They come into this fixture without a win in four games, of which three have been lost including two away games this week at Watford (2-0) and Preston (2-1). At home Leeds (1-0) and Plymouth (2-1) were seen off in the first two games with stoppage time winners in both, but they’ve since lost 3-1 to Cardiff in the cup and drawn 1-1 with Millwall in the league on this ground. Scott Hogan’s missed penalty in the Millwall game was the fifth spot kick he’s missed from seven taken in his career.

The Blues won only seven and lost ten of their games at St Andrew’s last season. Only Stoke, QPR, Cardiff and the bottom two Blackpool and Wigan won fewer home matches, and only Stoke, QPR and the bottom two lost more.

QPR: As discussed, Rangers’ form couldn’t be more different home from away. At Loftus Road it’s three defeats and a draw from four this season, winless in nine and now one win from 19 going back into last season. They’ve failed to score in ten of those games and haven’t scored more than once since beating Wigan 2-1 on October 22. Away from home they’ve won four and drawn one of the last seven, with victories at Cardiff and Boro already recorded this term.

The big positive from Tuesday night’s draw with Swansea is the team kept going, kept at it, and equalised in stoppage time. Prior to that they’d picked up just one point, at West Brom, from 14 losing positions under Gareth Ainsworth. The defeat to Sunderland last Saturday spoiled the other side of that record – it had been five wins and a draw from the six occasions they’d taken the lead under this manager prior to Jack Colback’s red card. That sending off was our first in 68 games going back to February 2022 when Dion Sanderson headbutted a Blackpool player – he’s one of three former QPR players, plus John Eustace, in the Blues squad currently. Lyndon Dykes’ goal was his 30th for the club, 11 of which have been headers. Four of his last five were from an Ilias Chair assist, Jack Supple informs us. It was the first goal at the Loft End in ten matches.

Only Forest Green Rovers (14) have taken fewer points than Rangers (22) in 2023 across the top four divisions in 2023 so far. QPR’s dire run of two wins in 28 games that almost relegated them in 22/23 started with a 2-1 loss at St Andrew’s in a Friday night Sky game when the R’s sat top of the table. Prior to that they’d won five and drawn one of eight visits.

Prediction: We’re once again indebted to The Art of Football for agreeing to sponsor our Prediction League and provide prizes. You can get involved by lodging your prediction here or sample the merch from our sponsor’s QPR collection here. What’s our reigning champion Aston got for us this week…

“Unfortunately, Tyler Roberts is stilll 'some weeks away' as he has been for the last 15 months, a shame as I was looking forward to us facing him this season. Sadly though, I think this Birmingham squad is now too strong for us and far too well drilled under John Eustace. Jay Stansfield looks an excellent addition on loan, I don't know if the reality is we were ever in for him, but we should have been. In the end, I'm going 2-0 to Birmingham.”

Aston’s Prediction: Birmingham 2-0 QPR. No Scorer.

LFW’s Prediction: Birmingham 2-0 QPR. No Scorer

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