Bottom at Xmas/Game 19 - Looking at the stats for survival by Jack_Kass 23 Dec 2017 19:55
A lot is made of the ‘bottom at Xmas tag’, and statistically it can be seen as the kiss of death, with only 12% of teams having avoided relegation from this position*, with the three survivors being (WBA (2005), Sunderland (2014), Leicester (2015).

But, the asterix next to that statistic, is Swansea City (2016), as we were effectively joint bottom, and level on points with Hull City on Xmas day last year, and as we all knew, survived! So to flip that statistic in a positive manner, the past 3 consecutive seasons have seen the team/s with the lowest points on Xmas day survive, here’s hoping for for a 4th!

But, what fails to be mentioned alongside the ‘xmas curse’, is that Xmas Day can fall at different points in the season, in terms of games played, e.g in 2016 it was Round 17, with 19 not coming until NYD, and this year Game 19 has already been played, a whole 9 days earlier than last year.

So let’s look at Game 19, statistically, as a benchmark for the season, rather than the 25th of December. Game 19 being the half way mark, and theoretically, meaning we have played every team in the league (but not always strictly true).

Below is a summary of 18th position (highest relegation spot) at Game 19, over the last 10 seasons, with their points total, and their points per game average, with the credentials of the team who were relegated that season in 18th position, to the right, There is also the difference between the two avg points totals.

http://i66.tinypic.com/2jd16hc.jpg

So with Game 19 already played in the 2017/2018 season, we now have the data available to make the prediction for the points total needed to survive relegation this year.

The avg points needed for the team in 18th to survive, from this point, is 19. It has been as high as 23 (2011), and as low as 12 (2010).

The avg rise in points per game for 18th position, from Game 19 to 38, is 0.07, predicting that the relegated team this year, will have 34.58 points (35). Although it has been as high as 0.21 (2008), and as low as -0.16 (2009,2010)

Using the data, we can predict that the magic number to survive this season will be 35 pts. Incidentally, 35 is also the exact average pts needed to survive over the last 10 years (perfect!)

So what does this leave Swansea City needing to do, in the second half of the season, to reach the total of 35 points?

In 2016/2017, Swansea City had 13 points from 19 games.

In 2017/2018, Swansea City have.. 13 points from 19 games.

Swansea City need a minimum of 22 points in the next 19 games, to meet our magic number and survive, 1 point more than we would have needed to survive, last season.

Last year, we amassed a total of 29 points over the second half of the season! An average of 1.53 pts per game. That will certainly do again this year, can we repeat it?

Swansea City will need to improve their average points total by 0.48 points per game to reach this total, last season they improved their second half total by 0.90 points per game. An improvement of 0.48 points looks relatively easy!

Statistically, the club is in an incredibly similar position to the one they faced last season, with 13 pts from 19 games. They have scored less goals, but also conceded less, with a goal difference today of -15, compared to -23, this time last year.

Not rocket science to any fan, we need points, and soon.

The key notable difference for me, from this time last year, to now, being..

Last year we were at 19 games played when Clement came in, and rocketed us up the table, thereafter.

This year, we are already at 19 games played, with seemingly no idea of who is going to be in charge, or in how many games time?

Will we have a team/manager in place, over the next few months, to repeat the scenario of last year?

We did it just one year ago, can we do it again? Does lightning strike twice? Let's all hope so.

Game 25 - Looking at the stats for survival by Jack_Kass 1 Feb 2018 14:36
Following on from the previous thread, looking at the stats for survival -
https://www.fansnetwork.co.uk/football/swanseacity/forum/214441/bottom-at-xmas-game-19--looking-at-the-stats-for-survival/

http://i64.tinypic.com/24d0q54.png

Updated to Game 25

Observations since Game 20 -

At game 20, the 18th placed team had 17 pts, and an 0.85 points per game average, since then we have seen the same position in the table climb to 23 points, meaning a 0.92 points per game average. A 0.07 point increase in that time.

With this increase of ppg around the bottom of the table in the last 5 games, we now have a new projected safety total of 36 points.

With 13 games left, the average points needed (over 10 years) from this stage is 13, giving us our new total of 36.

The average rise in points per game, is 0.03, again which means that adding to Southampton's current total of 0.92, gives us a figure of 36.

In short, as long as the team in 18th averages 1 point a week increase, then 36 will be the minimum needed, at this moment in time.

Looking ahead to Game 30 -

For the projected total to go above or below 36, we would need to see the 18th placed team achieve the following totals by Game 30.

http://i64.tinypic.com/125q3xk.png

If we see the same increase in ppg as we did over the last 5 game weeks, then 18th place will have 30 points at Game 30, meaning a safety target of 38 points.

Could it happen? You never know in football, but I think with the league being so congested at the bottom, and teams inevitably taking points away from one another, I think 36 is still more than sound total for us to be aiming for

4 wins from 13 will do it!

[Post edited 13 Mar 2018 13:32]