The next three days are going to be crucial to Southampton FC in their fight against relegation, but I think that by Monday evening, Saints fans will know whether their team is doomed or there is a chance of a great escape.

Tuesday evening brings the first raft of fixtures in the Premier League that will see all clubs play twice in the space of 7 days with only Friday having no Premier League fixtures.

We start rock bottom on 24 points, Forest on 27, Everton & Leicester on 28 and Leeds on 29, it is hard to see anyone above the bottom 5 now getting dragged into the relegation battle.

Tonight's fixtures see Leeds United take on Leicester City at Elland Road, the sad news for Saints fans is that at least one of them has to pick up a point, it is difficult to decide whether it would be better for a winner in this game or a draw being better.

A Leeds win would virtually see them safe, but leave Leicester still with one foot in the grave, but likewise a Leicester win would be a big springboard for them.

Wednesday night sees Nottingham Forest host Brighton, we could really do with the Seagulls winning this one .

Thursday is the day it really hots up, Everton host Newcastle and we entertain Bournemouth.

Put bluntly if Everton win this one and we fail to beat the Cherries then we could find ourselves a minimum 5 points off safety and to make it harder, only 4 teams within catching distance.

But then it is on to the weekend's fixtures, Saturday sees Brentford host Forest and you would hope only one winner there, but it is Sunday when the screw will turn, Bournemouth will host Leeds and we travel to Newcastle.

Finally on Monday Leicester host Everton.

The issue for Saints is that several of the clubs above us have to pick up points, by Monday evening it could be down to a four game fight out at the bottom of the table.

It is hard to say just what is the best result in any of the games, should we want those playing each other to draw to keep them down there or should we want one of the clubs, probably Leeds or Leicester to pull clear.

But Saints have to keep fighting, it is important that even if we go down that we try and finish third from bottom, that could prove crucial should Everton not finish in the bottom three.

Having breached the Financial Fair Play rules it is likely that Everton will be docked points, the question is whether it is this season or next, back in 2009 when we were relegated to League One we faced a points deduction, but it was not applied till the season was over, if we had stayed up it would have been applied then, but we went down without points deduction needed so they were applied for the following season.

This is likely to be the case for Everton, if they finish out of the bottom three then they could still go down with a points deduction, if they are in the bottom three they will be applied in the Championship.

Either way that could be good news for us, so if we can't get out of the bottom 3 then we should still keep fighting to finish 3rd from bottom.

Of course the cynics will say that the Premier League will not have the bottle to impose a punishment and historically that has usually been the case, in the high stakes modern game, Everton would almost certainly take it to the courts and make various threats, they will be desperate and with a new stadium still a year away they might not make the end of next season if they are in the Championship.

But Everton are not Manchester City or Newcastle, they don't have the financial clout for big court cases and threats.

Of course we would prefer Saints to stay up under their own steam, rather than through sneaky means, but then again so would Everton, but they may have no choice.

Make no bones about it, by next Monday evening we may well already be resigned to our fate, but the season is not over yet, we just need to win the game that are winnable and that starts with the visit of Bournemouth, beating them will make them look over their shoulders a little and give them a real incentive to beat Leeds on Sunday.

Photo: Action Images

underweststand added 11:13 - Apr 25 I see that you are another one who's doing the vital survival maths (Nick ). Anything less than 3 points on Thursday would be another nail in the coffin (regardless of other results), as we would still be points adrift with Newcastle for the following fixture. Looking at how we CAN play ..(the come back v. Spurs, and the lost opportunity at The Emirates), we really need 100% effort from everyone in the few remaining fixtures, and those worried about the future can take pause to consider their future - after game 38.

1

saintmark1976 added 12:25 - Apr 25 Mathematically Nick surely the best result for us from the Leeds-Leicester game tonight is a draw, meaning that both clubs will effectively have dropped two points and will remain in the relegation mix?
3

BuenosSaint added 12:40 - Apr 25 Agree SM'76. A Leicester win would be fatal just guaranteeing increasing the gap to safety. Draw , point each is the best for sure.
1

BuenosSaint added 12:41 - Apr 25 Agree SM'76. A Leicester win would be fatal just guaranteeing increasing the gap to safety. Draw , point each is the best for sure.
0

TimSaint added 12:44 - Apr 25 Once again, it really doesn't matter what other teams do. There is no point in relying on other teams / results going our way, when we do not help ourselves. We have a whopping 2 points from our last 6 games, so if anyone thinks we can suddenly find 3 or 4 wins from our next 7 is totally deluded. We have thrown away far too many points and games, especially to teams around us in the league and that not only costs us points, but greatly affects our position in the table. We are our own worst enemy.

6

SaintPaulVW added 13:39 - Apr 25 Really relying on other teams results now, but it is still possible to stay up. Must win on Thursday tho. COYR
2

felly1 added 14:28 - Apr 25 Odds of us going down are 1/9. Bournemouth are 10/1....that might be worth a punt.
1

wessexman added 17:20 - Apr 25 I was given a free ticket for the Bournemouth v West Ham game. Ruben Selles was there as well. He saw what I saw. Bournemouth cannot defend crosses. Three of the four WHU goals came from this inability to defend crosses/corners. Now, I know what I would do on Thursday.....pepper their penalty area with crosses, play Big Paul and get physical. Also, our players must know that anything but a win and we are down.....especially if other results go against us. On Thursday there can be no excuses......especially after our heroics against Arsenal. It is up to Selles and our players now.....

1

leighsaint added 19:31 - Apr 25 I agree with Southampton ref on his thoughts on Elyounoussi why do managers keep picking him. He has not produced any thing that makes him stand out. He has produced nothing outstanding in any of his games. He is most of the time like the invisible man.
-1

YosemiteSaint added 01:37 - Apr 26 After today's results we're now five points adrift (six if you factor in GD). Time to stick a fork in us; I don't even see us getting off the foot of the table. (Sorry to be so glum, but I have a heart condition and have to pick my battles.)
1

underweststand added 15:10 - Apr 26 To Yosemite Saint.... I think those of us who don't have a heart condition maybe liable to get one... with only 6 games left and no obviously "winnable games" left . Nothing is obvious anymore. I wouldn't fancy waiting to see it all hang on the Liverpool game at the end of May ....
1

Ifonly added 16:22 - Apr 26 Wessexman, you're right Bmth can't defend crosses. You may also remember that we won our game there with a header from a cross. This is incredibly rare for us to do. The only other time in recent memory that we have scored with a header was on Friday when Arsenal copied our set piece defence tactic and left DCC completely unmarked in the 6 yard box where he couldn't miss. So, if even we have already scored with a header against them, then Bmth clearly have serious issues. Plus Jack S has played well for them this year, but he will be missing for this game. Plus they will probably defend deep which is a tactic that we've shown we are unable to deal with via our normal sideways passes. So yes, this game is 100% crying out for Tall Paul to play and for us to try and get crosses in the box. My prediction: it won't happen. The average height of our front players will be 5'6" and we won't win any headers in their box from open play.

0

YosemiteSaint added 22:40 - Apr 26 Underwestand, thirty years of supporting Saints isn't good for _anyone's_ health, so do take care! Meantime, Forest's win today pretty much puts paid to our EPL relegation "battle," <sigh>.
0

Blogs 31 bloggers

Charlton Athletic Polls