Can Saints finish in the top 7 ? our columnist Matt thinks so, but he is not so onfident that we can go higher, do you think he is right ?

Just to clarify, by ‘Top 7’ I mean ‘7th’; we’re unlikely to break into the Top 6 again for some time. A battle with Everton for that 7th spot, though, is possible. More than that, I think it’s likely.

Saints fans could be forgiven for feeling somewhat underwhelmed at the current state of affairs. It’s been a solid, if underwhelming, start to the season: a frustrating opening day draw to Swansea was followed by a fortuitous win against West Ham and a hard-earned draw at Huddersfield Town. Five points from nine, yes, but combined with a low-key exit from the Carabao Cup against Wolves, it’s not exactly the return of the free-scoring, flowing football that we all want and expect.

It hasn’t been easy, but was it ever going to be? Let’s put this into perspective.

The Pellegrino effect

Saints have in the past made some fantastic managerial signings. Pochettino and Koeman are fantastic managers, and were a perfect fit for ‘The Southampton Way’ when they came in. However, even the most dogmatic Saints fan would have to say that every new manager cannot be expected to hit the ground running in their first season. Let’s hark back to this time two years ago, when Saints had two points from their first three games, a draw with Newcastle and newly promoted Watford and a tepid 3-0 loss to Everton. This was Koeman’s second season, and I remember ridiculous calls for him to be sacked even then. What happened? We finished 6th. SIXTH! In the Premier League!

That year, if the Premier League started December, we would have finished second. It took a while for us to get going. This year, Pellegrino has delivered 5 points against a similar calibre of opposition. His ideas are positive: we’re attacking, passing the ball much quicker and creating far more chances than we were under Puel.

His ideas will take a while to stick, and we have to remember the quite exceptional circumstances of his arrival in the midst of a vicious transfer saga, a want-away star player and a downbeat dressing room following a poor end to the previous season.

Mauricio Pellegrino has impressed me, and once his philosophy percolates into every aspect of the team’s play, we will be the exciting force of two years ago.

Squad depth and quality

The current squad is one of the strongest and deepest we’ve ever had. Yes, even compared with the 2015-16 squad. I wouldn’t have been saying this 4 weeks ago, mind. The arrival of Lemina has provided us another quality midfielder and provided healthy competition to Davis and JWP. Similarly, Hoedt is the big, strong, quality-on-the-ball defender we were craving in the absence of van Dijk. We’re not ready for the Big 6 currently, and we’re lucky our fixture list has allowed us time to adapt, but, if Hoedt can integrate, we will be.

And this without mentioning van Dijk, of course. Let’s be clear, right now it looks unlikely he will go anywhere, despite the extraordinary efforts of the press to suggest otherwise. Staying is one thing, but reintegrating and having the same impact he’s had over the past 2 years is another. If (and it’s a

big ‘if’) van Dijk comes back into the fold, Saints will have one of the best defensive line ups in the league.

Unlike a large portion of the Saints fanbase, I don’t currently see the need for a creative, attacking midfielder. The reason is simple: we have one sat on the bench. Boufal has looked in great nick every time he’s played this year. He’s the most creative player in our squad by some distance, and with Tadic only turning up every four games or so, Boufal represents the perfect replacement. To my mind, a forward three of Redmond, Boufal and JWP/Davis is perfectly adequate to create chances. As I’ve said many times, our striking options are not the issue. Gabbiadini, Austin and Long will get goals this year.

And on that point, the club could easily make an extra £15m with the sale of Tadic before the close of the window. He hasn’t done enough for me to warrant a place in the starting line-up, and no doubt we can free-up a hefty wage bill with his exit.

A matter of context

The bigger picture can be hard to see when you’re watching your team lose 2-0 to Wolves on a Wednesday night, but let’s be real: we’ve secured 5 points from a possible nine in the league, only conceded 2 goals, and are beginning to play some attractive football once again.

That’s a good return, but it’s not to be settled for.

I get frustrated at times when I read comments like ‘Think about where we were 6 years ago!’ or, ‘Be grateful we’re not still in League 1!’. That’s not the right attitude; we ARE in the Premier League now, we ARE a top 10 side, and we SHOULD NOT be totally content with a 10th place finish. Why? We’re better than that. The moment we stop craving more success is the moment we stand still.

In that light, I’m not going to say that I think we’re headed for a 10th place finish and that we should be happy with that. I think, with the team we have, the manager we have, and the football we’re playing, we will finish 7th this year.

Bring on Watford.

COYR.

@tposmatt

Photo: Action Images

Braveheart added 10:31 - Aug 29 The depth of squad you talk about is useless unless you play two forwards up front. with an impact on the bench. Plus also a decent goalkeeper.
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lovemachine added 10:37 - Aug 29 Everybody bar SFC knows we need another striker. DDEEERRRRRR
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steve73 added 10:59 - Aug 29 Good article, far more rational than my own line of thinking! Hoping for a good season of course but feel a bit hacked off with things at the moment....mainly the behaviour and lack of respect of professional footballers. It's hard to love the game sometimes when you hate the people playing it. I might have been duped but I'm fairly sure that VVD will be gone by end of day. That also makes me feel like a mug for believing our board. Are there any honorable people left in football? Still, I like our new manager. Hopefully he'll have a positive influence on more than just the football.

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FARESAINT added 11:21 - Aug 29 Good, sound article which , for what its worth, i agree with. The only point i would argue is the midfield. Boufal is a great player on his day and needs more regular playing time to shine however i still believe we need a stronger attacking midfielder. I am in no doubt that our three forwards can score when given some decent service. 2 up front is a no brainer for me, Austin and Gabbi would dazzle. On VVD, i admire the stance the board has taken but if other teams are wanting to spend stupid money on him then sell, re-invest in 2 or 3 decent players and forget all about him. Even if he does come back is he going to play heart and soul? I dont think so. Anyway we keep marching on .....

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skiptonsaint added 11:23 - Aug 29 A change of luck this year would help us to 7th. In all my years I have never Known so many chances go just the wrong side of the post. From Milan away to now. We have hit the woodwork 3 times at home this year so far ..was not poor finishing on any of the 3 chances for me Just need a few to hit the bar / post and go in Then we can get another 8 0
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thedellboys added 11:37 - Aug 29 our depth is woeful. Shane "offside" long is not gonna get goals he cant finish for toffee. Austin is too injury prone which leaves poor gabbi on his own. we need more firepower thats glaringly obvious. Our midfield is so lacking in creativity its not even funny, you want boufal yet he has shown glimpses of what he's capable of and thats it we cant rely on him to be the man at all its madness to think otherwise until he shows some consistency. we need wingers that have end product as we don't have any and a number ten to gel the forward play as tadic and ward-prowse are nowhere near the standard required to progress. and where is the back up of any of those positions? we dont have any, we need cover across the park to provide competition because our players are now able to perform terribly week in week out and still start a football match just look at tadic. i agree with wanting to push on and that we should be looking up and driving the club to do the same but being happy with this lot we have at the moment is not the right choice

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larry12 added 11:37 - Aug 29 Best squad! Rubbish article. Rose tinted moron!
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1970 added 11:38 - Aug 29 getting van dijk back in the side is crucial, your right with him in the side and the new man our defence looks as good as anyones it will allow us to move up the pitch more allowing the chances to be created from a lot closer to the goal where the strikers we have are far more effective if your going to make a case for letting tadic go then surely forster and jwp could fall into that bracket as well and gardos if you look at the chances created against us by a very poor Swansea side a west ham team with only 10 men and the biggest shots on/off target i.ve seen against us for a while at Huddersfield then we will definitely not finish 7th but I suppose we can all keep clapping coyr

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SaintNick added 12:17 - Aug 29 I thought this was a very well written well thought out article, yet some people dismiss it in one line calling him a "rose tinted moron" yet the same people who dismiss it offer no real thought about why they think Fraser Forster is rubbish, statistically he has a clean sheet record of 35 in 89 games, if you put that against keepers who have played around 100 games or more in the Premier league only Petr Cech, Peter Schmeichel , Edwin Van Der Saar and Pepe Reina have a better ratio per game, yet Forster is a crap keeper to many , why do people think that ? because they listen to what others say and dont look at facts and stats and reasons why we have conceded so many goals in the year 2018 after being so strong, they have to have a scapegoat.

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SonicBoom added 12:37 - Aug 29 The worry with VVD is that if we sell him I have no doubt we can't spend the money between now and Friday - unless we have been frantically working on it of course. Secondly will he be committed. He had better be or that will give the manager a problem. does he play Virgil in the hope he will put in a shift, and then risk annoying Yoshida, Stephens and Hoedt as they would rightly be wanting to play. Finally I hope we are not expecting too much of Hoedt and Lemina. Both have come in for what is really average player money in this window. Let's hope both are gems.

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Chesham_Saint added 12:38 - Aug 29 Forster was in at least one national newspaper's team of the week and realistically who would you get in? I understand McCarthy is a good back up too, so I'm not worried about our GK options too much. As for calling the writer a moron just because you disagree, that's really going to encourage constructive debate isn't it.
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SanMarco added 12:45 - Aug 29 'Moron' is totally unacceptable (only 'one' rather than 'some' Nick though). I disagree with the idea that we don't need an attacking midfielder and I think the jury is out on squad depth. I think Forster has some problems at the moment but hopefully he will sort them out. Other than that it is very early season and if we can't be optimistic now when can we be? Would be nice if the window closed before the season started though as everything is so up in the air until Sept 1st.

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brownk added 12:53 - Aug 29 A good article! I will again say, why are we so quick to criticise. We have a superbly well run club, good manager, good players and let's get behind the team. Its amazing what positivity from the fans can bring to the team. Look at what Huddersfield have achieved in this regard. Our expectations have been raised over the last few years and it is hard to compete at this level, and maintain progress as the margins for gain become smaller. When critism of investment is mentioned doesn't an increase in wages to retain our best players count. We had to do this last year otherwise they would have gone elsewhere and the money for this has to be found from somewhere. I find it frustrating that fans think we can spend money with any thought to the long term viability of the club and we don't want to go down that route again!

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REEDYREEDOREEDZ added 12:55 - Aug 29 I can't see us finishing above Everton, they're much stronger than we are. 8th is the best we can do but even that will be a struggle. Last season we got 46 points, which would usually mean something like a 13th place finish. This year realistically we are looking at a top half finish, 9th or 10th unless Pellegrino can sort out a number of problems. Hoedt is likely to be good and if VVD stays then they should form a solid partnership. Even if VVD goes then Yoshida and Hoedt might be ok. In attack we lack end product. Tadic has been poor since we lost Pelle and Mane. He was great with those two because he could provide for Pelle in the air and play Mane in behind. Two great attacking options, one with lightning pace and skill and the other with physical presence and power in the air. We had a nice blend, similar to the Lambert, Lallana, Rodriguez trio that worked so well under Poche. Now, most weeks, we have Gabbiadini, Redmond and Tadic. I think Gabbi will be a quality number 9 for us but he needs service. He needs a quality final ball, his movement and finishing can be excellent. He does better when the ball is moved forward quicker, like the goal against West Ham, he needs quick, dynamic transitional play to open up space and find his runs. Lemina will help us with this. That type of play has been better under Pellegrino than Puel where it was ten sideways passes before looking forward. Redmond isn’t as good as Mane, nowhere near as good, but Mane was an incredible find. We paid something like £12m for Mane and he’s now a £100m player. Terrific scouting once again from Saints. We’ll need to seal the deal this week for another terrific find if we are going to push for top 8, because we lack that type of quality in our creative players. Redmond is ok, but lacks top class in his finishing and final ball, and Tadic has completely lost his way over the last year. He struggled under Puel because of the slow build up play. He was marked by the time he received the ball as was all of his passing options. Hopefully now Pellegrino can get him back to his best because on his day he is quality and can find that final ball we’ve been lacking. That is quite a challenge for Pellegrino though. Boufal is an enigma, will he ever come good? Will he ever get 6 or 7 consecutive starts to get a proper chance at proving himself? Will James Ward-Prowse ever be able to convert simple chances? It’s that end product that’s the problem at the moment. Goals from midfield and the quality final ball for Gabbi. If Pellegrino sorts these problems then top 8 is a possibility once again, it just seems like one hell of a challenge. The chances are Tadic, Redmond and Boufal won’t produce consistently so we need a top class addition to our attack to get the goals flowing.

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BoondockSaint added 13:38 - Aug 29 Matt, have you been playing the drinking game where you watch the Saints and do a shot every time Forster bats the ball instead of catching it, a JWP free kick is off target and Boufal passes the ball to the opposition? "Squad depth and quality"? Compared to the 2015/2016 squad? Please look again: http://www.worldfootball.net/teams/southampton-fc/2016/2/ I admire your optimism, but with the way the team has played lately, (and this was the "easy" part of the schedule) I'm thinking 17th more than 7th!

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DPeps added 14:08 - Aug 29 Nice article and some good points made. I've been saying for 12 months that we need more creativity in midfield and/or up front and my opinion hasn't changed. Up front - Austin will get injured, so cannot be depended on for the season. Long is a good servant but has never been prolific. Midfield - we have a glut of midfielders who are dependable but offer little going forward. I really hope Boufal can translate his obvious talent to genuine ability, but at the moment he is shaping up like Gaston Mark 2. If I was running things... sell Long and get in a young striker with energy. Sell Clasie or Hoj (probably Jordy) and get in another attacking midfielder. In reality I think we'll do neither

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SaintBrock added 15:33 - Aug 29 I find it hard to agree with anything the author claims. Of course not a moron but also not very observant either. Still, we are all entitled to our opinions including but why give it such prominence?
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EDLiner added 17:54 - Aug 29 I cannot believe we continue to play Redmond. Impact sub maybe but he is light on the ball, gets bullied, is a one shot pony who can only cut in and shoot and offer very little in crosses. Add to the fact that Davis is our captain but has the shooting ability of a blind squirrel and Tadic is about as much use as a tit on a fish and you can see why we can't score. Claude played the same way and isolated the striker with little or no service. No midfielders playing one twos with the striker and believing they will score. MP is doing exactly the same. It is like nothing has changed. Meanwhile Hjojberg and Clasie are ostracised. People slate JWP but at least he creates chances! GK - McCarthy LB - Targett CB - Hoedt CB - Yoshida RB - Cedric LM - McQueen DM - Romeu AM - Lemina RM - JWP CF - Austin CF - Gabbi At least it gives a chance for delivery and goals. Why is 4-4-2 such a dirty word? 4-2-3-1 is about as successful as a dart in a dingy. Lets have a team of people who want to play rather than lazy gits.

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pete_boggs added 18:38 - Aug 29 Mr Tilling has been listening to Supertramp too much. Can you put your hands in your head On No! Except JWP can (nothing in there). We need 4 new midfielders and a goalie, end of.
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LoisDeem added 19:27 - Aug 30 "Everybody", that's all Saints fans presumably, doesn't agree we go get another striker, if only it were that simple. That's what most other club's think, so we should only whisper the real solution. But we surely all agree that we do need goals, and it's whether we can unlock this treasure trove with our existing nuggets or unearth one somewhere. Agree with the article, I do think it is possible to finish at least 7th, but that's a tall order given recent history. Just why we've got so many 'specialist' sky shotters with striker blindness packed into our midfield is beyond me, these are the players that must know they've got to do better, even another brilliant new striker is not the quick fix answer.

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underweststand added 20:17 - Aug 30 finishing better than 7th...rather depends on which of the top 6 has a bad season rather than how well Saints can perform. For a start we have to start taking points off the top 6 AND keep more clean sheets at home. The matter of scoring goals is no formality! Looking at the top teams at present , Huddersfield may do well for another 2-3 games but will likely drop down to mid table. Both City and United have enough players to qualify for CL and Tottenham will inevitably be there or there abouts - if they can start winning at Wembley. So the weak links maybe Liverpool and Arsenal , neither of whom can seem to get the balance of their squads right. A "Rooney-charged" success may keep Everton high up´the table , but without a regular goal scorer thay may not be able to cut it. So what's the answer? ...come back at Christmas and ask me again.

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LoisDeem added 10:17 - Sep 1 Revised team (post transfer window and powerful drugs) Goalie: Endof Defence: Rose, Tinted, Moran and Vandijk, Tailbetweenlegs; Midfield: Moran, Moore, Goals; Strikers: Knott, Noone-Pleas Bench: Larry (12 of course!)
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