| The Pound 13:57 - Sep 24 with 98706 views | Stanmiguel |
Well, the money markets didn't like the mini budget.
I met Liz Truss in a hotel in Monmouth a few years ago.
She said her solution to pensioner poverty would be to feed them on Pedigree Chum.
Not only would this save a lot of money, it would give them shiny coats and a nice cold nose. |  | | |  |
| The Pound on 06:58 - Sep 30 with 2520 views | traininvain |
| The Pound on 22:12 - Sep 29 by BazzaInTheLoft |
Generation with cheap houses, free health, free education, telling the youth to stop asking for handouts. |
Not only that but laughing at their desperation not to lose their homes. Shameful. |  | | |
| The Pound on 07:20 - Sep 30 with 2476 views | essextaxiboy |
| The Pound on 22:18 - Sep 29 by ParkRoyalR |
Bill Gates?
Penny Mordaunt one and same close ally of Liz Truss and appointed by her as Leader of House?
Say typical mortgage value is 350k, a 2% increase to interest rates will increase annual repayment by 4k, which wipes out any energy bill discount.
The memo's being sent to government departments asking for savings and crib sheets sent to MP's today asking them to bluff this out as a global issue rather than Truss + Co shooting themselves in both feet would be laughable if things weren't so serious.
Tory MP's like Walker are furious with Truss's naivety and incompetence, could be an interesting few weeks. |
Penny Mordaunt isnt an ally of Truss, She was mighty p8ssed off with the job she was given.
Mordaunt would have been a much better PM than Truss will ever be . She did not mention tax cuts whilst campaigning , a Navy reservist , no flip flopping baggage that Truss carries and a confident speaker .
I hope she gets a chance of another go before Christmas, |  | | |
| The Pound on 07:43 - Sep 30 with 2411 views | PlanetHonneywood |
| The Pound on 06:38 - Sep 30 by Hunterhoop |
I don’t think it was 6%, but happy for you to evidence otherwise.
And the answer, freight. Pre-pandemic, a 40HC container cost under $2k. At the turn of 2021 into 2022, pre-CNY, it was, if I recall correctly, around $15k when all extra carrier and port surcharges were considered. We’re an island that has a big export vs import deficit (on goods), so higher fright costs will cause inflation.
In my line of work you could see inflation coming from early 2021. The major carriers posted profits up 4000% vs pre-pandemic levels.
And on top of this by the start of 2022 there were already a few commodities showing significant inflation; corrugate (cardboard) was one and that is used across almost everything for packaging. Again, if I recall correctly, metals were also moving up. I’m not an expert, but most metal products are manufactured in China who were still taking a hardline on Covid so that possible drove a shortfall in supply, which, with the return of global demand in the west, pushed the price up. More demand than supply will drive inflation.
But the war in Ukraine then ramped things up another notch. It directly impacted food prices but also exacerbated the shortage of truck drivers in Europe (already 400k short by the start of 2021, so another cause of inflation pre-war). This then impacts every type of item moved by road freight.
Remember CPI/RPI are always a way behind what’s happening in the supply chain. I can’t find it, but I’m pretty sure I said on here 6 months ago, I could see inflation reaching 12% this year, not the 9% forecast by the BOE at the time which I think was then reached in May/June.
Couple of promising signs: many commodities are stabilising, freight is reducing (8k per 40HC) and gas, whilst volatile is showing signs that Ukrainian advances and success will reduce the wholesale price. Putting aside the “will he resort to nuclear weapons” conversation, it will almost certainly be good for reducing inflation and improving standard or living on the west if Putin is defeated or is brought to the negotiating table over Ukraine. All that said, in my view, western govt’s should fast tracking green energy infrastructure builds immediately, as a matter of priority to become more self sufficient, and to support the Paris Agreement targets. |
Solid!
Although the move to a Green Economy should be 100% motivated by environmental concerns, for which the economic benefits will follow. |  |
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| The Pound on 08:06 - Sep 30 with 2353 views | ParkRoyalR |
| The Pound on 07:20 - Sep 30 by essextaxiboy |
Penny Mordaunt isnt an ally of Truss, She was mighty p8ssed off with the job she was given.
Mordaunt would have been a much better PM than Truss will ever be . She did not mention tax cuts whilst campaigning , a Navy reservist , no flip flopping baggage that Truss carries and a confident speaker .
I hope she gets a chance of another go before Christmas, |
Agree, I was responding to Sakura's point that Tory MP Sir Charles Walker's brutally honest critique of Liz Truss's first few days in power was refreshingly honest and on point, particularly as he had no doubt earlier received his crib sheet / whatsapp saying to blame sterling's devaluation on global forces rather than Truss's idiocy.
Sakaru thought Walker could be smeared and dis-credited because he supported Mordaunt in the leadership election and Bill Gates wrote the foreword to her book.
And you wonder who are the 40k cranks who vote for Michael Fabricant and the 80k idiots who thought Truss would be a more capable PM than Sunak to manage the pending energy crisis and likely economic slow-down.
Yesterday's round of radio interviews was humiliating for the PM, off belatedly to see the OBR today and Macron and his European Council next week (as long as they change the council's name) humiliating for the so-called iron weathercock. | | | |
| The Pound on 08:36 - Sep 30 with 2265 views | Hunterhoop |
| The Pound on 07:43 - Sep 30 by PlanetHonneywood |
Solid!
Although the move to a Green Economy should be 100% motivated by environmental concerns, for which the economic benefits will follow. |
Well, yes. But there’s now a strong and immediate economic case too (for those who didn’t believe in the longer term one), which should be made and should support the move. [Post edited 30 Sep 2022 9:39]
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| The Pound on 08:39 - Sep 30 with 2256 views | MedwayR |
| The Pound on 20:05 - Sep 29 by Sakura |
Can you explain what exactly you mean by that?
First looks it’s such a misinformed statement I don’t know where to start
Are you talking about price caps and what’s your plan for markets like in LNG to continue to sell to us the artificially restricted price when they can go elsewhere for example [Post edited 29 Sep 2022 20:06]
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The government could raise funds through windfall tax, or reduce the cap to protect people. No coincidence that as the cap has risen so has the profits of energy companies. Instead, they’re borrowing money at the expense of the taxpayer, to fund taxpayers energy bills, the energy companies huge profits remain untouched. The government is doing energy companies a favour here, not the taxpayer. |  |
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| The Pound on 08:43 - Sep 30 with 2241 views | R_from_afar |
| The Pound on 08:36 - Sep 30 by Hunterhoop |
Well, yes. But there’s now a strong and immediate economic case too (for those who didn’t believe in the longer term one), which should be made and should support the move. [Post edited 30 Sep 2022 9:39]
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"The climate transition is the critical opportunity of the 21st Century," said James Close, head of climate change at NatWest Group. "We need to turbocharge the economy through green growth and use that to accelerate growth. The business case is there." |  |
| "Things had started becoming increasingly desperate at Loftus Road but QPR have been handed a massive lifeline and the place has absolutely erupted. it's carnage. It's bedlam. It's 1-1." |
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| The Pound on 08:49 - Sep 30 with 2228 views | R_from_afar |
| The Pound on 08:06 - Sep 30 by ParkRoyalR |
Agree, I was responding to Sakura's point that Tory MP Sir Charles Walker's brutally honest critique of Liz Truss's first few days in power was refreshingly honest and on point, particularly as he had no doubt earlier received his crib sheet / whatsapp saying to blame sterling's devaluation on global forces rather than Truss's idiocy.
Sakaru thought Walker could be smeared and dis-credited because he supported Mordaunt in the leadership election and Bill Gates wrote the foreword to her book.
And you wonder who are the 40k cranks who vote for Michael Fabricant and the 80k idiots who thought Truss would be a more capable PM than Sunak to manage the pending energy crisis and likely economic slow-down.
Yesterday's round of radio interviews was humiliating for the PM, off belatedly to see the OBR today and Macron and his European Council next week (as long as they change the council's name) humiliating for the so-called iron weathercock. |
Yes, the OBR thing.
I suspect the fact that a new PM and chancellor announcing a major change in economic policy, at a time when there was already economic turmoil, had not run the new plan through the OBR, was another thing which contributed to spooking the markets.
The state we are in  | |
| "Things had started becoming increasingly desperate at Loftus Road but QPR have been handed a massive lifeline and the place has absolutely erupted. it's carnage. It's bedlam. It's 1-1." |
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| The Pound on 09:00 - Sep 30 with 2173 views | BazzaInTheLoft |
| The Pound on 08:36 - Sep 30 by Hunterhoop |
Well, yes. But there’s now a strong and immediate economic case too (for those who didn’t believe in the longer term one), which should be made and should support the move. [Post edited 30 Sep 2022 9:39]
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No economy on a dead planet! |  | | |
| The Pound on 09:08 - Sep 30 with 2170 views | ParkRoyalR |
| The Pound on 08:49 - Sep 30 by R_from_afar |
Yes, the OBR thing.
I suspect the fact that a new PM and chancellor announcing a major change in economic policy, at a time when there was already economic turmoil, had not run the new plan through the OBR, was another thing which contributed to spooking the markets.
The state we are in |
Probably the largest contributing factor, as OBR offered to fast track forecast and were blocked, as Walker said last night... you were asked when you were doing your school maths exams...'please show your workings out'...and how you came up with your numbers...and KK replied I can't possibly have ready before November...just unbelievable.
Still let's not be declinist, defeatist (aka realists) or proponents of project fear (ie state the obvious or dare be honest)
On the back of Boris's populist vote that he garnered as Mayor and then PM, I believe Truss has over-estimated the amounts of fools among the voting public. | | | |
| The Pound on 09:15 - Sep 30 with 2154 views | Dixie_CT |
Really great thread and has sparked some curiosity in me. Thanks all for the informed input.
Can anyone tell me how much tax the Government receive each year? Is it approx. £800BN?
Also, I've read it is about 40% of GDP although I'm not sure how and why they are linked. Does that mean there is 60% more they could potentially tax? Probably a stupid question but I have no idea!
Was reading they spend about 2/3 on Public services (NHS, Schools, Prisons etc) and a 1/4 on the Social State (Universal Credit, Pensions etc.) It is quite fascinating when you get in to the detail and not the macro stuff we get presented. |  | | |
| The Pound on 09:23 - Sep 30 with 2124 views | PlanetHonneywood |
| The Pound on 22:12 - Sep 29 by BazzaInTheLoft |
Generation with cheap houses, free health, free education, telling the youth to stop asking for handouts. |
Totally agree.
Think it extremely poor form of anyone born before the mid-70s, to criticise people in their 20s and 30s, who are and will face a decidedly difficult future in comparison to what we have 'enjoyed'.
Of course belt tightening was required to get deposits together, but many of us could still go out, party, travel and not look down the barrel of uncertainty caused by student debts and ever rising costs. I genuinely fear for people in the generations behind me.
And that is before we factor in the uncertainties in the world of work that AI will likely have. | |
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| The Pound (n/t) on 09:33 - Sep 30 with 2086 views | JimmyR |
[Post edited 30 Sep 2022 9:34]
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| The Pound on 09:36 - Sep 30 with 2076 views | JimmyR |
| The Pound on 08:39 - Sep 30 by MedwayR |
The government could raise funds through windfall tax, or reduce the cap to protect people. No coincidence that as the cap has risen so has the profits of energy companies. Instead, they’re borrowing money at the expense of the taxpayer, to fund taxpayers energy bills, the energy companies huge profits remain untouched. The government is doing energy companies a favour here, not the taxpayer. |
Save your breath. It’s a perfectly well informed statement. Since we don’t know how long gas prices will be high or how high they will go it’s an open ended commitment
OVO energy’s mk cap is only 302 million, no idea about the rest
She could have restructured d the market so that all prices are not based on wholesale gas. The nuclear price per unit is much lower for example. The british tax payer already paid to build the bloody nuclear reactors!! A very quick google search told me that only 22% of uk domestically produced energy is produced from gas anyway.
But no, I’m going to let private enterprise keep the mark up and ensure everyone in the country pays for it through higher prices & more interest on government debt
Promoting growth my arse. The market knows it and so does anyone else with half a brain.
She’s taken a supply side recession and made it and demand and supply side recession. All in the name of promoting growth ?!? | | | |
| The Pound on 09:41 - Sep 30 with 2042 views | Phildo |
There is lots of interesting input on this thread - a lot about the issues inherent in late period capitalism.
Whatever those are running an economy is a bit like piloting a space shuttle - you do not want to do it without the training you need. In this case a new chancellor came in - a clever man with a background in economics. His first step was to sack the guy who ran the department - within an hour of sitting down at his desk. This obviously had been thought out. they knew they were going to do things that were not liked by the 'experts'. He then prepped a budget (in all but name) which he refused to have costed. A deliberate signal 'we are doing this and to hell with the markets'. The top rate tax thing was 'only' 2 billion as opposed to huge sums for the fuel thing which most governments are having to do one way or another. but it was a signal of sorts.
I think Brexit ushered in a new era on the right of saying - fk it I am doing this thing whatever you the so called experts say because I am pisd off with modernism.
There is a right wing journalist called Ed West (who went to Cardinal Vaughan for local interest) who has written a lot about how the right tend to win elections but then lose all the big arguments.
In this case however 'the markets' (whatever that means) so beloved of the free marketeers actually had the power to do something in return to that attitude. That is what we are seeing now. No idea how it ends to be honest.
Really great to see the 'local' radio journalists sticking it to the PM yesterday- way too much client journalism around Westminster for the last few years with the likes of Shipman et al. |  | | |
| The Pound on 09:41 - Sep 30 with 2037 views | Hunterhoop |
| The Pound on 09:00 - Sep 30 by BazzaInTheLoft |
No economy on a dead planet! |
I know. I agree. I should have been clearer; I meant for those who don’t believe in climate change or the long term need for a green economy. Even for those people there is now a much stronger self sufficiency economic argument too. | | | |
| The Pound on 09:42 - Sep 30 with 2023 views | Hunterhoop |
| The Pound on 08:43 - Sep 30 by R_from_afar |
"The climate transition is the critical opportunity of the 21st Century," said James Close, head of climate change at NatWest Group. "We need to turbocharge the economy through green growth and use that to accelerate growth. The business case is there." |
I know afar, I agree. Didn’t make my point clear enough. I wasn’t saying there was no business case before. | | | |
| The Pound on 09:46 - Sep 30 with 2001 views | JimmyR |
And for anyone worried about their pension - Inflation is useful for the treasury since is reduces the amount the state pension costs in real terms
Which is probably how kwertang intends to make his budget balance... in november | | | |
| The Pound on 10:07 - Sep 30 with 1936 views | Watford_Ranger |
| The Pound on 09:46 - Sep 30 by JimmyR |
And for anyone worried about their pension - Inflation is useful for the treasury since is reduces the amount the state pension costs in real terms
Which is probably how kwertang intends to make his budget balance... in november |
Don’t think they can afford, politically, to cut state pension in real terms. Would kill off what’s left of their support. | | | |
| The Pound on 10:20 - Sep 30 with 1886 views | JimmyR |
| The Pound on 10:07 - Sep 30 by Watford_Ranger |
Don’t think they can afford, politically, to cut state pension in real terms. Would kill off what’s left of their support. |
Its on one of the front pages today, plans to link with earnings not CPI. They certainly can't afford a 10/11% increase. This hits demand immediately as most recipients of benefits spend them, immediately. | | | |
| The Pound on 10:26 - Sep 30 with 1845 views | BazzaInTheLoft |
| The Pound on 09:41 - Sep 30 by Hunterhoop |
I know. I agree. I should have been clearer; I meant for those who don’t believe in climate change or the long term need for a green economy. Even for those people there is now a much stronger self sufficiency economic argument too. |
I know I was being a facetious know it all shithouse.
An easy casting 😆 | | | |
| The Pound on 14:20 - Sep 30 with 1574 views | R_from_afar |
| The Pound on 09:42 - Sep 30 by Hunterhoop |
I know afar, I agree. Didn’t make my point clear enough. I wasn’t saying there was no business case before. |
Sorry, I wasn't intending to seem critical.
A huge factor in the development of human society has been a stable and equable climate for 11,000 years, albeit with a few short periods of hostile weather (the Hekla 3 eruption, in 1159 BC, resulted in 18 years without a summer - yikes) and the Black Death in the 14th century took a greater human toll in the UK than it should have because the people had already been weakened by climate induced crop failures.
Then I hear that the Iraqi government has said they believe up to 90% of their land may become impossible to farm due to rising temperatures and reduced rainfall. 90% !
Quite apart from all the unemployment and loss of earnings for farmers and small holders, how on earth do you run an economy when you have to import most of your food? OK, so they have large oil and gas reserves but even if there was no climate emergency, those finite resources could not sustain the economy for long. Sobering stuff. | |
| "Things had started becoming increasingly desperate at Loftus Road but QPR have been handed a massive lifeline and the place has absolutely erupted. it's carnage. It's bedlam. It's 1-1." |
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| The Pound on 15:03 - Sep 30 with 1487 views | HAYESBOY |
| The Pound on 09:00 - Sep 30 by BazzaInTheLoft |
No economy on a dead planet! |
Funny enough.....the name of the next Gorillaz album. |  |
| Smells like a trout farm in here |
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| The Pound on 20:04 - Sep 30 with 1255 views | Superhoops2808 |
| The Pound on 06:58 - Sep 30 by traininvain |
Not only that but laughing at their desperation not to lose their homes. Shameful. |
No point explaining to the other one but your posts I normally respect. The 'I had to laugh' was a figure of speech. In the 80's I watched my Mum crying her eyes out as rates hit 15% and then my wife very upset in 2007 at the thought of us not meeting our mortgage payments as they hit 5.75%. We searched out ideas to gain extra income.
They are not even at that level yet and people are asking for government help. My point is that every time something gets tough people cannot look towards the government for help. Where does it stop? Because we have to pay that money back in some way eventually. Someone has mentioned earlier that this generation are not so keen to cut their cloth accordingly, cut out the luxuries like Sky, Netflix etc. And they are also not keen to look for another source of income either. People who though that rates would stay as low as they were for ever were very naive.
There are many that do take on multiple jobs, but others look to the easy option. |  | | |
| The Pound on 20:18 - Sep 30 with 1222 views | Benny_the_Ball |
| The Pound on 18:28 - Sep 29 by ParkRoyalR |
Truss's mini-budget is the reason the markets have lost confidence in the competence of the UK government and our economy, leading to a likely down-grading of the UK's credit rating and a corresponding increase in the interest on the UK's debt which is predicted to cost £100bn a year, plus a weakened pound when you are buying energy in dollars, something all predicted by Sunak who clearly said if you do not have a plan you can substantiate, don't do it. Project Fear Truss responded!
Unfortunately Truss thought she could bluster like Boris and throw in a few cliches about being defeatist, promoting project fear etc (which go down well with Mail readers) and she knew better than Sunak and the markets.
Perception in life is very important as can be seen above, but more so timing, and quite how Truss & Kwarteng thought now was the right time to pivot the economy and go hell-bent chasing 'growth' is beyond belief.
Still, nearly 40 thousand Tories voted for Michael Fabricant (who can't even get a syrup to fit), so 80 thousand voting for Truss is maybe not so surprising or beyond belief. |
Agreed, perception is key. However, if you follow the chain back you will note that I was answering a specific point made by a few posters who claimed that Liz's mini-budget caused inflation and interest rates to rise. It didn't, it was a response to those events. What it did do is cause temporary panic in the market which saw the GB pound fall against the US dollar. It has since regained these losses. |  | | |
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