| Drakeford No Back To Normal 2021 on 21:07 - Mar 11 with 1528 views | Jack123 |
Look's like England have SAGE, and we in Wales have Tac.
And they want to lock us into Tier 3 till June based on modelling!!
What an absolute load of rubbish!!
Lies, after lies after lies!!! We were told Tier 4, because of increase in cases and deaths, now that's fallen, it's a different story again. |  |
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| Drakeford No Back To Normal 2021 on 21:11 - Mar 11 with 1522 views | Flashberryjack |
| Drakeford No Back To Normal 2021 on 21:07 - Mar 11 by Jack123 |
Look's like England have SAGE, and we in Wales have Tac.
And they want to lock us into Tier 3 till June based on modelling!!
What an absolute load of rubbish!!
Lies, after lies after lies!!! We were told Tier 4, because of increase in cases and deaths, now that's fallen, it's a different story again. |
Drakeford said we won't be going into tiers a while back, either he lied or forgot what he said. |  |
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| Drakeford No Back To Normal 2021 on 21:54 - Mar 11 with 1472 views | Scotia |
| Drakeford No Back To Normal 2021 on 20:54 - Mar 11 by Jack123 |
Look's like they are breaking the bad news in little leaks, by from what I can see on this article from the bbc, it's Tier 3 till June...
So it's no alcohol in pubs till at least June.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-56359403 |
I've just looked at the original modelling report. In the worst case scenario cases do reach a peak in early June equivalent to the January peak, but even in the worst case scenario hospitalisation and deaths reach nowhere near that peak. That is the main point.
That assumes the vaccines only have 60% efficacy, and they seem to be far more effective than that and it assumes low adherence to the rules. The worst case scenario.
We aren't going to be in Tier 3 until June. Drakeford has an election to win. |  | | |
| Drakeford No Back To Normal 2021 on 22:10 - Mar 11 with 1453 views | Flashberryjack |
| Drakeford No Back To Normal 2021 on 21:54 - Mar 11 by Scotia |
I've just looked at the original modelling report. In the worst case scenario cases do reach a peak in early June equivalent to the January peak, but even in the worst case scenario hospitalisation and deaths reach nowhere near that peak. That is the main point.
That assumes the vaccines only have 60% efficacy, and they seem to be far more effective than that and it assumes low adherence to the rules. The worst case scenario.
We aren't going to be in Tier 3 until June. Drakeford has an election to win. |
If England opens pubs on 12th April (outside) and Drakeford doesn't open them until June, that won't go down well, to say the least. | |
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| Drakeford No Back To Normal 2021 on 22:13 - Mar 11 with 1447 views | Scotia |
| Drakeford No Back To Normal 2021 on 22:10 - Mar 11 by Flashberryjack |
If England opens pubs on 12th April (outside) and Drakeford doesn't open them until June, that won't go down well, to say the least. |
Perhaps we'll get a better idea tomorrow. | | | |
| Drakeford No Back To Normal 2021 on 22:15 - Mar 11 with 1443 views | Fireboy2 |
| Drakeford No Back To Normal 2021 on 22:10 - Mar 11 by Flashberryjack |
If England opens pubs on 12th April (outside) and Drakeford doesn't open them until June, that won't go down well, to say the least. |
It will be a travesty and a disgrace if they aren't opened close to the 12th. |  | | |
| Drakeford No Back To Normal 2021 on 22:17 - Mar 11 with 1437 views | onehunglow |
At least Killy and tramp will be happy as the English tourists will simply fook off | |
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| Drakeford No Back To Normal 2021 on 22:27 - Mar 11 with 1433 views | builthjack |
We may well have to show that we have been tested before entering a pub. |  |
| Swansea Indepenent Poster Of The Year 2021. Dr P / Mart66 / Roathie / Parlay / E20/ Duffle was 2nd, but he is deluded and thinks in his little twisted brain that he won. Poor sod. We let him win this year, as he has cried for a whole year. His 14 usernames, bless his cotton socks.
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| Drakeford No Back To Normal 2021 on 22:48 - Mar 11 with 1418 views | majorraglan |
| Drakeford No Back To Normal 2021 on 21:54 - Mar 11 by Scotia |
I've just looked at the original modelling report. In the worst case scenario cases do reach a peak in early June equivalent to the January peak, but even in the worst case scenario hospitalisation and deaths reach nowhere near that peak. That is the main point.
That assumes the vaccines only have 60% efficacy, and they seem to be far more effective than that and it assumes low adherence to the rules. The worst case scenario.
We aren't going to be in Tier 3 until June. Drakeford has an election to win. |
If this was the Swansea modelling report, with what appeared to be a worst case scenario they were predicting another 3500 lives lost, but that’s a worst case so it could be less.
Heard the 3rd wave is expected in May, but that will depend on opening up and could be pushed back with a slower opening. Drakeford will get smashed if he opens up too early and thousands die, he’ll also get smashed if he leaves it too late and takes a cautionary approach as advised by the science he can’t really win. Whitty is already warning England about opening too early so it remains to be seen what Boris will do.
I think a real indicator of the way this is going was the Chancellors budget, he’s extended the furlough through to next autumn which I think says a lot. If everything was going to be hunky dory come June, then the furlough would stop in June.
Ultimately, Drakers may have his hand forced by Westminster as they control the purse strings. If the tap is turned off which it was in cities in the North West last year then Drakers won’t be able to enforce a lockdown. | | | |
| Drakeford No Back To Normal 2021 on 22:52 - Mar 11 with 1415 views | Jack123 |
| Drakeford No Back To Normal 2021 on 21:54 - Mar 11 by Scotia |
I've just looked at the original modelling report. In the worst case scenario cases do reach a peak in early June equivalent to the January peak, but even in the worst case scenario hospitalisation and deaths reach nowhere near that peak. That is the main point.
That assumes the vaccines only have 60% efficacy, and they seem to be far more effective than that and it assumes low adherence to the rules. The worst case scenario.
We aren't going to be in Tier 3 until June. Drakeford has an election to win. |
I hope you are right, regarding not going into Tier 3.
I just watched the bbc wales news, and they were running the story about Tac..
I saw their predictions, and their graphs, Tier 2 this could be the possible outcome, Tier 3 and so on, I honestly thought after watching that, Why the ferk are they listening to them!! They are like some bad sort of football prediction betting outfit..
These computer modellers should not get a look in, when they are absolutely no help..
They spout rubbish, knowing fully well they can never get called out on it.
Edit: Thinking of it, what should be done, is when their advice is not followed, and what they have said is not the outcome! defund them, and sack the lot of them! [Post edited 11 Mar 2021 22:58]
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| Drakeford No Back To Normal 2021 on 23:03 - Mar 11 with 1400 views | Dr_Winston |
Neil Ferguson is still getting touted as some sort of expert when given his track record of utterly inaccurate predictions (and ignorance of his own recommendations) should be seeing him treated as a comedic figure.
Computer modeling has been almost totally discredited during this pandemic. A government that still relies on it is one not fit for purpose. |  |
| Pain or damage don't end the world. Or despair, or f*cking beatings. The world ends when you're dead. Until then, you got more punishment in store. Stand it like a man... and give some back. |
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| Drakeford No Back To Normal 2021 on 23:13 - Mar 11 with 1391 views | Jack_Meoff |
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| If you want a vision of the future, imagine a boot stamping on a human face--forever. |
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| Drakeford No Back To Normal 2021 on 23:42 - Mar 11 with 1373 views | Glossolalia |
The WAG will start banging the drum of infection rates, ignoring the sole reason why we went into lockdown in the first place - to protect the NHS from being overwhelmed.
Trails show vaccines are around 80% effective at avoiding hospital admissions in the elderly. In itself, and with all nearly all over 70s vaccinated now, there is no reason to keep this going much longer at all. Infection rates mean nothing if it doesn't result in too many hospitalisations.
His doom and gloom is ridiculous and counter-productive. He's blind to the idea that giving people some fvcking hope, and some future dates of easing measures, however tentative, will almost certainly increase adherence to the current rules.
I am sick of him and Welsh Labour. |  | | |
| Drakeford No Back To Normal 2021 on 08:06 - Mar 12 with 1299 views | Scotia |
| Drakeford No Back To Normal 2021 on 23:42 - Mar 11 by Glossolalia |
The WAG will start banging the drum of infection rates, ignoring the sole reason why we went into lockdown in the first place - to protect the NHS from being overwhelmed.
Trails show vaccines are around 80% effective at avoiding hospital admissions in the elderly. In itself, and with all nearly all over 70s vaccinated now, there is no reason to keep this going much longer at all. Infection rates mean nothing if it doesn't result in too many hospitalisations.
His doom and gloom is ridiculous and counter-productive. He's blind to the idea that giving people some fvcking hope, and some future dates of easing measures, however tentative, will almost certainly increase adherence to the current rules.
I am sick of him and Welsh Labour. |
I have disagreed with you on here before, but I do agree with a lot of that.
That entire study seems to overlook the impact of vaccines, or at best drastically underplay their effectiveness. As far as I'm concerned it makes the study worthless.
The worst case scenario mentioned in this study and the seemingly apocalyptic 3rd wave that results from it seem to be based on vaccines that are 60% effective and we go back to normal in three weeks time.
We know that a single dose is 80% effective even in the most vulnerable (everyone will be having two doses) and we won't be going back anywhere approaching normal until at least mid May. So this worst case scenario is wildly inaccurate.
Even the worst case scenario of this study considers deaths and hospitalisations at 50% of the level seen over the winter.
I wouldn't go as far as saying that infections mean nothing without hospitalisation, mainly to enable genomic sequencing, but I really think this study needs to be considered more optimistically. | | | |
| Drakeford No Back To Normal 2021 on 08:13 - Mar 12 with 1293 views | majorraglan |
If Drakers believes they were a considerable factor in fuelling the last Aumtuns increase, I’d say in April or May. There’s always been a train of thought we couldn’t have both schools and pubs open on account of the risk of spreading infection, if it’s a straight choice between schools and pubs there’s only going to be 1 winner. | | | |
| Drakeford No Back To Normal 2021 on 09:03 - Mar 12 with 1281 views | Scotia |
| Drakeford No Back To Normal 2021 on 08:13 - Mar 12 by majorraglan |
If Drakers believes they were a considerable factor in fuelling the last Aumtuns increase, I’d say in April or May. There’s always been a train of thought we couldn’t have both schools and pubs open on account of the risk of spreading infection, if it’s a straight choice between schools and pubs there’s only going to be 1 winner. |
It's 17th May in England if things go according to plan. I can't see it being too different here, Drakeford has an election to win. | | | |
| Drakeford No Back To Normal 2021 on 10:09 - Mar 12 with 1269 views | exhmrc1 |
| Drakeford No Back To Normal 2021 on 09:03 - Mar 12 by Scotia |
It's 17th May in England if things go according to plan. I can't see it being too different here, Drakeford has an election to win. |
Drakeford will win the election come what may. The only issue is whether it will be on its own (unlikely) or a coalition with Plaid (much more likely) given in the last 20 years it has usually ended up as a Labour/Plaid or Lib Dem coalition. None of the major parties will join forces with the Tory party in Wales as all are left leaning rather than right wing. | | | |
| Drakeford No Back To Normal 2021 on 10:43 - Mar 12 with 1261 views | Scotia |
| Drakeford No Back To Normal 2021 on 10:09 - Mar 12 by exhmrc1 |
Drakeford will win the election come what may. The only issue is whether it will be on its own (unlikely) or a coalition with Plaid (much more likely) given in the last 20 years it has usually ended up as a Labour/Plaid or Lib Dem coalition. None of the major parties will join forces with the Tory party in Wales as all are left leaning rather than right wing. |
Of course he will - people are stupid enough to vote for him. | | | |
| Drakeford No Back To Normal 2021 on 10:47 - Mar 12 with 1256 views | onehunglow |
| Drakeford No Back To Normal 2021 on 10:43 - Mar 12 by Scotia |
Of course he will - people are stupid enough to vote for him. |
We disagree Scot on much bit Im right with your here.That must make you queasy.
That which the likes of Builth posts shows exactly what the issue is.
Class War aint the answer | |
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| Drakeford No Back To Normal 2021 on 11:01 - Mar 12 with 1254 views | controversial_jack |
| Drakeford No Back To Normal 2021 on 08:06 - Mar 12 by Scotia |
I have disagreed with you on here before, but I do agree with a lot of that.
That entire study seems to overlook the impact of vaccines, or at best drastically underplay their effectiveness. As far as I'm concerned it makes the study worthless.
The worst case scenario mentioned in this study and the seemingly apocalyptic 3rd wave that results from it seem to be based on vaccines that are 60% effective and we go back to normal in three weeks time.
We know that a single dose is 80% effective even in the most vulnerable (everyone will be having two doses) and we won't be going back anywhere approaching normal until at least mid May. So this worst case scenario is wildly inaccurate.
Even the worst case scenario of this study considers deaths and hospitalisations at 50% of the level seen over the winter.
I wouldn't go as far as saying that infections mean nothing without hospitalisation, mainly to enable genomic sequencing, but I really think this study needs to be considered more optimistically. |
We don't know that at all. AZ is 65% at best after two doses and there's little data on the elderly and vulnerable | | | |
| Drakeford No Back To Normal 2021 on 11:56 - Mar 12 with 1232 views | felixstowe_jack |
| Drakeford No Back To Normal 2021 on 11:01 - Mar 12 by controversial_jack |
We don't know that at all. AZ is 65% at best after two doses and there's little data on the elderly and vulnerable |
Have you not studied any of the facts since the vaccine rollout started? | |
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| Drakeford No Back To Normal 2021 on 12:36 - Mar 12 with 1217 views | controversial_jack |
between 60 and 73% for the Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine. which is what i stated. We have limited data on the elderly, just a suggestion it may be effective.
We need to remain cautious and not assume the vaccines are a cure all. | | | |
| Drakeford No Back To Normal 2021 on 13:06 - Mar 12 with 1210 views | Scotia |
| Drakeford No Back To Normal 2021 on 12:36 - Mar 12 by controversial_jack |
between 60 and 73% for the Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine. which is what i stated. We have limited data on the elderly, just a suggestion it may be effective.
We need to remain cautious and not assume the vaccines are a cure all. |
"In the over 80s, data suggest that a single dose of either vaccine is more than 80% effective at preventing hospitalisation, around 3 to 4 weeks after the jab."
Is what the article says.
You said:-
"We don't know that at all. AZ is 65% at best after two doses and there's little data on the elderly and vulnerable"
Never change CJ. You're funny. [Post edited 12 Mar 2021 13:10]
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