| Lies, damned lies and statistics 15:27 - Mar 19 with 8329 views | jackmorsel |
Apologies in advance for another Covid 19 thread and I may well be stating the obvious here, so forgive me if I am.
However I've been doing a lot of thinking about the "numbers" regarding CV19 and the context in which the media especially are simply focussing on some very distinct and general datasets, number of cases, deaths, etc and whilst numbers like in Italy of 475 dying in a day on the face of it are shocking. I cannot help being concerned that all these numbers are somewhat out of context.
So I decided to look to the ONS for real data on the typical death rate in England & Wales and found data on the on website. Specially looking at winter mortality rates.It makes for some interesting reading and brings real context to the number in general. Whilst accepting that this is horrendous and is going to cause 1000s of deaths in the UK. If the media reported all the data on all illness and mortality rates it would contextualise this and not sensationalise it? Which I think IS the very cause of panic and fear in the majority of people.
Have a look here.....
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/dea
In the years 2017/2018 daily mortality rates are circa 1200 a day across the board. In March 2018 the daily mortality rate hovers around 1600 a day so approx 49,000 died in March 2018 of various causes.The causes are broken down in the spread sheet.
My point is that even though most of the CV19 deaths to come may well be additional, to give context to the "numbers" the media and to some extent government should be trying to quell the panic and worry and not sensationalising the "numbers". If the Daily Fail printed a headline saying 49,000 to die in March, all hell would break loose as it's just a number totally out of contex. This is what is happening now, and although the situation is dire, subduing the fear could go a long way to stopping the panic buying and fear stoking that seems to be rife now.
OR is that the plan????
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| Lies, damned lies and statistics on 15:33 - Mar 19 with 5706 views | A_Fans_Dad |
The problem is that the COVID19 numbers are on top of all the others and our NHS cannot possibly cope with those kinds of numbers.
That means that all the other desease & accident death rates where patients need IC beds will also increase and that will include a large number of front line Medical personel who get COV19 as has happened in China & Italy.
Read the post on Singapore to see how it is supposed to have been done. [Post edited 19 Mar 2020 17:15]
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| Lies, damned lies and statistics on 17:09 - Mar 19 with 5620 views | sherpajacob |
| Lies, damned lies and statistics on 15:33 - Mar 19 by A_Fans_Dad |
The problem is that the COVID19 numbers are on top of all the others and our NHS cannot possibly cope with those kinds of numbers.
That means that all the other desease & accident death rates where patients need IC beds will also increase and that will include a large number of front line Medical personel who get COV19 as has happened in China & Italy.
Read the post on Singapore to see how it is supposed to have been done. [Post edited 19 Mar 2020 17:15]
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is the death of a 96 year old in poor health really on top of the numbers?
I believe we are still at 2 deaths in total in Wales. |  |
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| Lies, damned lies and statistics on 17:14 - Mar 19 with 5600 views | A_Fans_Dad |
| Lies, damned lies and statistics on 17:09 - Mar 19 by sherpajacob |
is the death of a 96 year old in poor health really on top of the numbers?
I believe we are still at 2 deaths in total in Wales. |
There is no overload now.
Ask me again in 3 weeks time when we will be in Italy's shoes. | | | |
| Lies, damned lies and statistics on 17:24 - Mar 19 with 5577 views | lifelong |
Does the op suggest we do nothing and just let the virus run its course? [Post edited 19 Mar 2020 18:42]
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| Lies, damned lies and statistics on 17:30 - Mar 19 with 5568 views | jackmorsel |
| Lies, damned lies and statistics on 15:33 - Mar 19 by A_Fans_Dad |
The problem is that the COVID19 numbers are on top of all the others and our NHS cannot possibly cope with those kinds of numbers.
That means that all the other desease & accident death rates where patients need IC beds will also increase and that will include a large number of front line Medical personel who get COV19 as has happened in China & Italy.
Read the post on Singapore to see how it is supposed to have been done. [Post edited 19 Mar 2020 17:15]
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I understand that, my point is more to do with context. There has been barely any mention of the numbers that die from flu in any one normal season. When you look at one set of numbers without context they can look frighting. I believe this is driving the behaviour of many people in the UK. e.g. panic buying.
Media also use language that also dramatise and inflame, for example death rate soars or leaps, deadly bug, killer bug. All in the name of clicks and sales. If they reported this for a standard flu season, how would people react, similarly I am guessing. | | | |
| Lies, damned lies and statistics on 17:34 - Mar 19 with 5563 views | jackmorsel |
| Lies, damned lies and statistics on 17:24 - Mar 19 by lifelong |
Does the op suggest we do nothing and just let the virus run its course? [Post edited 19 Mar 2020 18:42]
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No, not what I was getting at. This is about context when providing information (data) that ultimately affects how we react or behave. I am saying as it is, it has got many running scared and behaving irrationally which ultimately is not good for society. As seen in panic buying. | | | |
| Lies, damned lies and statistics on 17:37 - Mar 19 with 5552 views | Best_loser |
Daily mail reader alert
Just kidding |  | | |
| Lies, damned lies and statistics on 17:45 - Mar 19 with 5537 views | Thrasher6 |
You've done a good job here of putting some context on the numbers. Quite frankly the scaremongering by the press and the reaction of vast majority of people has been ridiculous. People have been whipped up into a state of completely irrational behavior.
We sometimes laugh at other countries like North Korea but this episode illustrates just how manipulative we are. When this blows over we need to have a long hard look at our media and ourselves. |  |
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| Lies, damned lies and statistics on 20:33 - Mar 19 with 5415 views | majorraglan |
| Lies, damned lies and statistics on 17:45 - Mar 19 by Thrasher6 |
You've done a good job here of putting some context on the numbers. Quite frankly the scaremongering by the press and the reaction of vast majority of people has been ridiculous. People have been whipped up into a state of completely irrational behavior.
We sometimes laugh at other countries like North Korea but this episode illustrates just how manipulative we are. When this blows over we need to have a long hard look at our media and ourselves. |
Some context has been put in to the numbers, but this really is a major issue and the longer it goes on the greater the number of people who will perish. Italy has had about 3500 deaths reported so far including 427 today. The rate is increasing significantly across the country and the healthy service is being overwhelmed. It’s also quite possible that the non Covid 19 mortality rate is increasing as patients who are being taken seriously ill are unable to access treatment. | | | |
| Lies, damned lies and statistics on 21:13 - Mar 19 with 5381 views | cmajack |
It's the first time in my lifetime (and I'm in my mid sixties) that doctors are actually refusing to see patients on a face to face basis. I went in to a pharmacy today and there were a set of traffic cones keeping the public 2ft away from the counter and there was a stool with a notice on it saying "please put your prescription on the stool and step back away from it) . There may have been some people who sadly would have passed away this winter ,but if surgeries are closing and only giving telephone appointments then that tells you how serious they think this virus is. | | | |
| Lies, damned lies and statistics on 21:29 - Mar 19 with 5355 views | Thrasher6 |
| Lies, damned lies and statistics on 21:13 - Mar 19 by cmajack |
It's the first time in my lifetime (and I'm in my mid sixties) that doctors are actually refusing to see patients on a face to face basis. I went in to a pharmacy today and there were a set of traffic cones keeping the public 2ft away from the counter and there was a stool with a notice on it saying "please put your prescription on the stool and step back away from it) . There may have been some people who sadly would have passed away this winter ,but if surgeries are closing and only giving telephone appointments then that tells you how serious they think this virus is. |
29,000 died of influenza related illness last year....29,000. Thats just in England and Wales! A long way to go. Can everybody stop this ridiculous over reaction. [Post edited 19 Mar 2020 21:32]
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| Lies, damned lies and statistics on 21:39 - Mar 19 with 5333 views | BLAZE |
| Lies, damned lies and statistics on 21:29 - Mar 19 by Thrasher6 |
29,000 died of influenza related illness last year....29,000. Thats just in England and Wales! A long way to go. Can everybody stop this ridiculous over reaction. [Post edited 19 Mar 2020 21:32]
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We're weeks into this now, how are you still missing the point!?
Influenza is vaccinated against and largely controlled - although still deadly to some, it isn't infectious enough to bring the entire health system to it's knees. COVID-19 is. |  | | |
| Lies, damned lies and statistics on 21:47 - Mar 19 with 5301 views | jack_lord |
| Lies, damned lies and statistics on 21:39 - Mar 19 by BLAZE |
We're weeks into this now, how are you still missing the point!?
Influenza is vaccinated against and largely controlled - although still deadly to some, it isn't infectious enough to bring the entire health system to it's knees. COVID-19 is. |
Yes, countries all over the world are not making rash knee jerk reactions for no reason.
The mortality rate of "seasonal" flu is 0.1 percent so one death in every thousand affected where the mortality rate estimates of covid 19 is approximately 3 percent so 30 deaths in every thousand to give it the same comparison so 30 times more deadly perhaps.
The worst case scenario, I have read, if it is more contagious than seasonal flu is 500,000 deaths in the UK.
Hopefully it is not as contagious and maybe there are not as many that may be susceptible. |  |
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| Lies, damned lies and statistics on 21:57 - Mar 19 with 5269 views | majorraglan |
| Lies, damned lies and statistics on 21:29 - Mar 19 by Thrasher6 |
29,000 died of influenza related illness last year....29,000. Thats just in England and Wales! A long way to go. Can everybody stop this ridiculous over reaction. [Post edited 19 Mar 2020 21:32]
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I think you are completely wrong with your view on this, Italy as gone from 2 detected cases at the end of a January to over 41,000 today, the number of deaths has gone from 1 on the 23rd of February to approximately 3,500 as of today - there was an increase of 427 today. These are in addition to Flu.
3500 in just short of a month, if that figure were replicated over a 12 months that’s 42,000 a year, BUT if the trend line reflects what’s happened in the last 24 hours it’s going to be much, much higher. Read the below article, I suspect the way forward has to be a draconian curfew, because what’s happened in Italy appears to be (in my opinion) as a result of half measures etc.
https://www.wired.co.uk/article/coronavirus-italy [Post edited 19 Mar 2020 22:02]
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| Lies, damned lies and statistics on 22:24 - Mar 19 with 5233 views | ladyjack |
| Lies, damned lies and statistics on 21:57 - Mar 19 by majorraglan |
I think you are completely wrong with your view on this, Italy as gone from 2 detected cases at the end of a January to over 41,000 today, the number of deaths has gone from 1 on the 23rd of February to approximately 3,500 as of today - there was an increase of 427 today. These are in addition to Flu.
3500 in just short of a month, if that figure were replicated over a 12 months that’s 42,000 a year, BUT if the trend line reflects what’s happened in the last 24 hours it’s going to be much, much higher. Read the below article, I suspect the way forward has to be a draconian curfew, because what’s happened in Italy appears to be (in my opinion) as a result of half measures etc.
https://www.wired.co.uk/article/coronavirus-italy [Post edited 19 Mar 2020 22:02]
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It doesn't make for good reading. |  | | |
| Lies, damned lies and statistics on 23:45 - Mar 19 with 5153 views | A_Fans_Dad |
Let's put thrashers 29000 Flu data in to perspective for him shall we.
First of all is in just Flu, it is at least 4 flu Viruses.
Does anyone remember a modern western country being put in to lock down over the flu?
Does anyone know anyone who was tested for flu?
Now let's look at the stats for Italy, today 475 died yesterday while under lockdown and the numbers are still climbing.
That equates to 14250 dead in 1 month, if it doesn't abate in the summer as is hoped we are talking 171000 per year.
Do you get it now thrasher? | | | |
| Lies, damned lies and statistics on 00:02 - Mar 20 with 5136 views | Professor |
| Lies, damned lies and statistics on 23:45 - Mar 19 by A_Fans_Dad |
Let's put thrashers 29000 Flu data in to perspective for him shall we.
First of all is in just Flu, it is at least 4 flu Viruses.
Does anyone remember a modern western country being put in to lock down over the flu?
Does anyone know anyone who was tested for flu?
Now let's look at the stats for Italy, today 475 died yesterday while under lockdown and the numbers are still climbing.
That equates to 14250 dead in 1 month, if it doesn't abate in the summer as is hoped we are talking 171000 per year.
Do you get it now thrasher? |
Well said.
The projection to do nothing is over 250000 additional deaths in the U.K., plus and incalculable number who die due to loss of medical availability.
Many infections lead to mortality- foodborne disease kills around 1100
Around the world each day. It will next year too.
Unchecked COVID19 is going to kill millions. If we are lucky and apply controls and ideally a vaccine in a year we may lose fewer than a million | | | |
| Lies, damned lies and statistics on 00:31 - Mar 20 with 5100 views | LeonWasGod |
| Lies, damned lies and statistics on 17:09 - Mar 19 by sherpajacob |
is the death of a 96 year old in poor health really on top of the numbers?
I believe we are still at 2 deaths in total in Wales. |
It is if some/many of those people are passing away at home or in an old folks home. We're now talking about thousands more a month needing ICU care well above the levels we're used to coping with.
As AFD was referring to, we're barely into the curve yet and below the coping capacity of the hospitals - let's wait to see where we are in a week or two.
There's an interesting graph doing the rounds somewhere showing the predicted number of cases needing care versus capacity of the hospitals - I can't find it now, but the curve shoots well above the normal capacity.
The Torygraph looked at the numbers, but just for England.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/huge-regional-diff |  | | |
| Lies, damned lies and statistics on 00:35 - Mar 20 with 5097 views | LeonWasGod |
| Lies, damned lies and statistics on 21:13 - Mar 19 by cmajack |
It's the first time in my lifetime (and I'm in my mid sixties) that doctors are actually refusing to see patients on a face to face basis. I went in to a pharmacy today and there were a set of traffic cones keeping the public 2ft away from the counter and there was a stool with a notice on it saying "please put your prescription on the stool and step back away from it) . There may have been some people who sadly would have passed away this winter ,but if surgeries are closing and only giving telephone appointments then that tells you how serious they think this virus is. |
Yep. My dad's pretty ill under the consultant, but has had all future appointments cancelled. They are literally abandoning people in fairly serious need of medical care. They're not making that choice lightly because of an overreaction. | | | |
| Lies, damned lies and statistics on 06:57 - Mar 20 with 5035 views | ladyjack |
| Lies, damned lies and statistics on 00:35 - Mar 20 by LeonWasGod |
Yep. My dad's pretty ill under the consultant, but has had all future appointments cancelled. They are literally abandoning people in fairly serious need of medical care. They're not making that choice lightly because of an overreaction. |
Lots of similar stories about, its a sign the system can't cope and we haven't even really started yet, it looks like this is the way it's going to be. | | | |
| Lies, damned lies and statistics on 09:18 - Mar 20 with 4984 views | A_Fans_Dad |
| Lies, damned lies and statistics on 00:35 - Mar 20 by LeonWasGod |
Yep. My dad's pretty ill under the consultant, but has had all future appointments cancelled. They are literally abandoning people in fairly serious need of medical care. They're not making that choice lightly because of an overreaction. |
I hope he keeps healthy until this calms down a bit.
My brother is in the same situation, he is 84 with 3 serious underlying health issues | | | |
| Lies, damned lies and statistics on 14:28 - Mar 20 with 4897 views | Catullus |
| Lies, damned lies and statistics on 17:34 - Mar 19 by jackmorsel |
No, not what I was getting at. This is about context when providing information (data) that ultimately affects how we react or behave. I am saying as it is, it has got many running scared and behaving irrationally which ultimately is not good for society. As seen in panic buying. |
Of course many of these deaths are extra numbers on the annual figures but as suggested, how long did a 96 year old in poor health have anyway? That's not meant to be flippant or cruel it's just the reality. When it's your time it just is and none of us know when that is.
There are others who will die because of Corona but not of it. Cancer sufferers waiting for diagnosis or treatment which is delayed too long. Car crash victims, drug users, heart attack and stroke victims all of whom need an ITU bed which are all full of Corona victims or, who an ambulance couldn't get too in time because of being stuck outside A&E. They won't be in the Corona stats but may be victims of it all the same. | |
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| Lies, damned lies and statistics on 14:45 - Mar 20 with 4882 views | Cooperman |
| Lies, damned lies and statistics on 17:45 - Mar 19 by Thrasher6 |
You've done a good job here of putting some context on the numbers. Quite frankly the scaremongering by the press and the reaction of vast majority of people has been ridiculous. People have been whipped up into a state of completely irrational behavior.
We sometimes laugh at other countries like North Korea but this episode illustrates just how manipulative we are. When this blows over we need to have a long hard look at our media and ourselves. |
You need to watch the Sky News special feature from the inside of Bergamo and Brescia hospitals, but don't forget to take your head out of your arse before you do so. |  |
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| Lies, damned lies and statistics on 19:36 - Mar 20 with 4770 views | majorraglan |
| Lies, damned lies and statistics on 14:45 - Mar 20 by Cooperman |
You need to watch the Sky News special feature from the inside of Bergamo and Brescia hospitals, but don't forget to take your head out of your arse before you do so. |
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| Lies, damned lies and statistics on 21:56 - Mar 20 with 4713 views | Flashberryjack |
| Lies, damned lies and statistics on 14:45 - Mar 20 by Cooperman |
You need to watch the Sky News special feature from the inside of Bergamo and Brescia hospitals, but don't forget to take your head out of your arse before you do so. |
627 deaths in Italy TODAY ! awful just awful, is this what is coming our way in the next couple of weeks ? |  |
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