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Is the lock down ending too soon? on 13:58 - Jul 10 by exhmrc1
Your hatred of Drakeford is now becoming really unbelievable. Let us start with sports and excercise. People can currently participate in many sports and there was an announcement today that many team sports will be able to recommence so you can go cycling, walking, running, play tennis, cricket, bowls, golf, lacrosse and others. You can have dance classes and out door gym sessions. It is hardly as though people cannot exercise. There are restrictions on gyms due to outbreaks starting in gyms elsewhere but to represent it that people cannot exercise is a total lie.
As far as hospitality there is a report this morning that only 2 people in 10 will feel comfortable going to restaurants indoors at the moment. A few days ago you expressed concern about pubs in England opening indoors. That is the very thing you want Drakeford to encourage.
Todays figures are out 0 deaths 10 new cases of which only 2 are shown as shown in the whole of Mid South and Wales from the Severn Bridge to Pembrokeshire and South Wales to Welshpool. As for your beloved piller 2 cases there will 11 of which 1 relates to 24 April, 1 from 5 May, 1 for 3 July and 8 from 8 July. The 2 new cases in South Wales included 1 each in Cardiff and the Vale and Aneurin Bevan Health Board areas. 14 of the local authorities in South and Mid Wales didnt have any cases and 4 of the Welsh Health Boards also showed no cases.
[Post edited 10 Jul 2020 14:28]
As is your groundless insistence he is correct. Genuinely this is not hard to argue against. The bloke is inept.
Excercise - I have never said people can't excercise, I run about 5 days a week but we haven't even been given a date that gyms can open? That is the problem. I am not a child, I understand that things can change Drakeford should give the industry a target to aim for. People use gyms to train for other sport like those you mention. As I have said my gym is huge and has a maximum capcity of 12 people. It has large roller shutters and a constant through flow of air. All equipment can be thoroughly cleaned. It can be made safe. There has been very few cases in Swansea for weeks. Why can't that business operate? Similar gyms have closed for good. If it was in England it could open in a fortnight.
As I clearly said, learn from England, if it works there it's likely to work here. I admit i was and still am nervous, especially around the relaxation of 2m social distancing, but if it works in England why do Wales need to wait a month before being in a similar position? After the spring and early summer the hospitality industry has had I think they'd welcome that 20% with open arms. As I said previously I'm taking my hard earned cash over the border next weekend and for my Wife's birthday. That is cash that could have stayed in Wales.
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Is the lock down ending too soon? on 14:38 - Jul 10 with 1707 views
Is the lock down ending too soon? on 14:24 - Jul 10 by Scotia
As is your groundless insistence he is correct. Genuinely this is not hard to argue against. The bloke is inept.
Excercise - I have never said people can't excercise, I run about 5 days a week but we haven't even been given a date that gyms can open? That is the problem. I am not a child, I understand that things can change Drakeford should give the industry a target to aim for. People use gyms to train for other sport like those you mention. As I have said my gym is huge and has a maximum capcity of 12 people. It has large roller shutters and a constant through flow of air. All equipment can be thoroughly cleaned. It can be made safe. There has been very few cases in Swansea for weeks. Why can't that business operate? Similar gyms have closed for good. If it was in England it could open in a fortnight.
As I clearly said, learn from England, if it works there it's likely to work here. I admit i was and still am nervous, especially around the relaxation of 2m social distancing, but if it works in England why do Wales need to wait a month before being in a similar position? After the spring and early summer the hospitality industry has had I think they'd welcome that 20% with open arms. As I said previously I'm taking my hard earned cash over the border next weekend and for my Wife's birthday. That is cash that could have stayed in Wales.
So what you want is special consideration for your gym. There can only be 1 rule and that covers everywhere. The fact is when exercising in gyms you breathe heavier therefore more chance of spreading the virus. People share equipment whether that be cardio machines or weights. That is another risk. The medical advice is this makes it high risk and it has been known elsewhere to restart the virus. The guy advising Drakeford and Co is an English Public Health expert who has worked in Canada. Drakeford should be following his advice and appears to be doing so. Stopping the virus spread and come back is the primary aim. We are very close to getting rid of it and that is to everybody's benefit including yours.
They are not allowing rugby to re start rightly. The close contact involved in scrums, rucks and malls makes it high risk as people are breathing over each. We dont need to go backwards and take risks as you want to do.
I would rather trust the advice of the medical offer than yours. His advice has been followed and again there has been no deaths with very low cases. The same is happening with Scotland and Northern Ireland. All have followed mostly similar paths. Scotland opened shops after Wales. Should they be criticised for that. Of course not. Sturgeon and Co are doing an excellent job there. Should they be criticised for having quarantine from more countries or insisting on facemasks in public places.
All the 3 devolved countries are making decisions as part of their 3 weeks review. It is only England that deviates and makes up decisions when it feels like yet the evidence show the devolved administrations have less deaths than England and are closer to getting rid of the virus.
The evidence showed that all have broadly followed the same path
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Is the lock down ending too soon? on 15:55 - Jul 10 with 1683 views
Is the lock down ending too soon? on 15:45 - Jul 10 by exhmrc1
So what you want is special consideration for your gym. There can only be 1 rule and that covers everywhere. The fact is when exercising in gyms you breathe heavier therefore more chance of spreading the virus. People share equipment whether that be cardio machines or weights. That is another risk. The medical advice is this makes it high risk and it has been known elsewhere to restart the virus. The guy advising Drakeford and Co is an English Public Health expert who has worked in Canada. Drakeford should be following his advice and appears to be doing so. Stopping the virus spread and come back is the primary aim. We are very close to getting rid of it and that is to everybody's benefit including yours.
They are not allowing rugby to re start rightly. The close contact involved in scrums, rucks and malls makes it high risk as people are breathing over each. We dont need to go backwards and take risks as you want to do.
I would rather trust the advice of the medical offer than yours. His advice has been followed and again there has been no deaths with very low cases. The same is happening with Scotland and Northern Ireland. All have followed mostly similar paths. Scotland opened shops after Wales. Should they be criticised for that. Of course not. Sturgeon and Co are doing an excellent job there. Should they be criticised for having quarantine from more countries or insisting on facemasks in public places.
All the 3 devolved countries are making decisions as part of their 3 weeks review. It is only England that deviates and makes up decisions when it feels like yet the evidence show the devolved administrations have less deaths than England and are closer to getting rid of the virus.
The evidence showed that all have broadly followed the same path
Isn't it interesting that Sweden, who had no lockdown, is now reporting lower case numbers than us?
A lower death rate than us too, so who was right? Put another was, was Bojo wrong or did it ever really matter? The truth about that is maybe that the different demographics have had just as much say in outcomes as anything any government has done. WHo knows.
My instinct is that Wales is in a crucial moment, a wrong decision now could be a disaster but we won't know until it happens.
Is the lock down ending too soon? on 15:45 - Jul 10 by exhmrc1
So what you want is special consideration for your gym. There can only be 1 rule and that covers everywhere. The fact is when exercising in gyms you breathe heavier therefore more chance of spreading the virus. People share equipment whether that be cardio machines or weights. That is another risk. The medical advice is this makes it high risk and it has been known elsewhere to restart the virus. The guy advising Drakeford and Co is an English Public Health expert who has worked in Canada. Drakeford should be following his advice and appears to be doing so. Stopping the virus spread and come back is the primary aim. We are very close to getting rid of it and that is to everybody's benefit including yours.
They are not allowing rugby to re start rightly. The close contact involved in scrums, rucks and malls makes it high risk as people are breathing over each. We dont need to go backwards and take risks as you want to do.
I would rather trust the advice of the medical offer than yours. His advice has been followed and again there has been no deaths with very low cases. The same is happening with Scotland and Northern Ireland. All have followed mostly similar paths. Scotland opened shops after Wales. Should they be criticised for that. Of course not. Sturgeon and Co are doing an excellent job there. Should they be criticised for having quarantine from more countries or insisting on facemasks in public places.
All the 3 devolved countries are making decisions as part of their 3 weeks review. It is only England that deviates and makes up decisions when it feels like yet the evidence show the devolved administrations have less deaths than England and are closer to getting rid of the virus.
The evidence showed that all have broadly followed the same path
Why on earth can there be only one rule? That just plays in to the hands of the big global gym companies. Many of my fellow members are Dr's and other front line staff they think it is safe to open. What if a rule stated equipment had to be cleaned after each use, no on site changing and a max occupancy of 1 person per 4 square metre? It's not hard if you try to find a way.
We won't get rid of it until there is a vaccine, we share a border with the second most populated nation in Europe with a lot of cross border traffic, attempting to eliminate the virus here is pointless in those circumstances. We are not New Zealand.
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Is the lock down ending too soon? on 16:44 - Jul 10 with 1665 views
A lower death rate than us too, so who was right? Put another was, was Bojo wrong or did it ever really matter? The truth about that is maybe that the different demographics have had just as much say in outcomes as anything any government has done. WHo knows.
My instinct is that Wales is in a crucial moment, a wrong decision now could be a disaster but we won't know until it happens.
Is the lock down ending too soon? on 16:12 - Jul 10 by Scotia
Why on earth can there be only one rule? That just plays in to the hands of the big global gym companies. Many of my fellow members are Dr's and other front line staff they think it is safe to open. What if a rule stated equipment had to be cleaned after each use, no on site changing and a max occupancy of 1 person per 4 square metre? It's not hard if you try to find a way.
We won't get rid of it until there is a vaccine, we share a border with the second most populated nation in Europe with a lot of cross border traffic, attempting to eliminate the virus here is pointless in those circumstances. We are not New Zealand.
So why are the figures dropping so much particularly in South Wales. Today there were no deaths at all in Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland yet 48 in England. Even including the pillar 2 figures there were 21 cases in Wales and at least 2 related to back dates 21/66.4/3.2 ie 435 equivalent compared to UKs 512 but that is including the lower Welsh, Scottish and Northern Irish figures so the gap is actually greater and many of these Welsh cases are actually the back end of the Wrexham factory outbreak.
Outside of the Wrexham outbreak we are talking extremely small amounts. 2 in an area 120 miles by 125 miles. We dont know if the cases from Denbighshire and Flintshire relate to that outbreak so it could be only 2 or possibly 4 cases in Wales plus any from your beloved Pillar 2 if any. We have practically got rid of it as have Ireland and Scotland but you prefer to back the English approach.
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Is the lock down ending too soon? on 17:48 - Jul 10 with 1635 views
Is the lock down ending too soon? on 17:10 - Jul 10 by exhmrc1
So why are the figures dropping so much particularly in South Wales. Today there were no deaths at all in Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland yet 48 in England. Even including the pillar 2 figures there were 21 cases in Wales and at least 2 related to back dates 21/66.4/3.2 ie 435 equivalent compared to UKs 512 but that is including the lower Welsh, Scottish and Northern Irish figures so the gap is actually greater and many of these Welsh cases are actually the back end of the Wrexham factory outbreak.
Outside of the Wrexham outbreak we are talking extremely small amounts. 2 in an area 120 miles by 125 miles. We dont know if the cases from Denbighshire and Flintshire relate to that outbreak so it could be only 2 or possibly 4 cases in Wales plus any from your beloved Pillar 2 if any. We have practically got rid of it as have Ireland and Scotland but you prefer to back the English approach.
Per capita our cases are very similar to England 24 to 21 here. It is very even now we don't have a localised outbreak in Wales. They still do in England and they obviously count.
As I've said before it's about striking a balance, I don't completely back the English approach but it is irrefutably working. So far.
Is the lock down ending too soon? on 17:48 - Jul 10 by Scotia
Per capita our cases are very similar to England 24 to 21 here. It is very even now we don't have a localised outbreak in Wales. They still do in England and they obviously count.
As I've said before it's about striking a balance, I don't completely back the English approach but it is irrefutably working. So far.
[Post edited 10 Jul 2020 19:07]
They’re craving bad news to say I told you so
In reality things are getting better in England and coupled with that they have freedoms
The curtain twitchers on here are afraid of this success it might mean they need to go to work
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Is the lock down ending too soon? on 18:23 - Jul 10 with 1616 views
Is the lock down ending too soon? on 18:24 - Jul 10 by Kilkennyjack
Today, the UK government reported 512 new cases and 48 new deaths. This is the breakdown by country. pic.twitter.com/wv063UYf7Y
— Lloyd Warburton🏴🇺🇦 (@LloydCymru) July 10, 2020
All Uk deaths today are in England, none at all in Wales, Scotland, and NI.
Progress which we all need to maintain.
[Post edited 10 Jul 2020 18:26]
Apples and oranges
England is the one of if not the most densely populated Country in Europe
They are testing more than we are, it’s simply not a fair comparison
And anyway if they are having more infections then they’re in a better place if “if” there’s a second wave. Herd immunity is part of the mix whether you like it or not
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Is the lock down ending too soon? on 19:29 - Jul 10 with 1561 views
Is the lock down ending too soon? on 18:40 - Jul 10 by rockinjac
Apples and oranges
England is the one of if not the most densely populated Country in Europe
They are testing more than we are, it’s simply not a fair comparison
And anyway if they are having more infections then they’re in a better place if “if” there’s a second wave. Herd immunity is part of the mix whether you like it or not
There's this little thingy called a "full stop".
It's just a little dot and it looks like this .
Please put one at the end of your "sentences".
Their absence is distracting me from the many interesting (😂) points you make.
ee cummings never used them, but he was a poet...
And you are not.
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Is the lock down ending too soon? on 19:33 - Jul 10 with 1554 views
Is the lock down ending too soon? on 18:40 - Jul 10 by rockinjac
Apples and oranges
England is the one of if not the most densely populated Country in Europe
They are testing more than we are, it’s simply not a fair comparison
And anyway if they are having more infections then they’re in a better place if “if” there’s a second wave. Herd immunity is part of the mix whether you like it or not
Testing is only going to change the figures if there are positive and all the factors point to the fact our figures are catching the positive case. In fact, that is the reason for the increase in numbers recently. Where there was large scale positive cases the numbers tested increased. The higher figures have occurred due to everyone being tested in the 3 factories in Llangefni, Wrexham and Merthyr. It is also backed up by how few cases are in hospital at the moment. Hywel Dda, Powys, Swansea Bay, Cwm Taf and Aneurin Bevan have no cases in Intensive care at the moment and very few cases in hospital. Cardiff and the Vale has 2 cases in Intensive care and Betsi Cadwalladr less than 5.
If there was large scale people with positive cases a larger number would have reported to A&E.
There is a report today that every English region other than the South West has a median R rate of between 0.9 and 1. This is before the effect of the opening of pubs takes hold.
The evidence clearly shows that the devolved administrations are performing better than England but then no facts can get in the way of you trying to paint Drakeford as bad because of your political view.
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Is the lock down ending too soon? on 20:38 - Jul 10 with 1531 views
Is the lock down ending too soon? on 19:33 - Jul 10 by exhmrc1
Testing is only going to change the figures if there are positive and all the factors point to the fact our figures are catching the positive case. In fact, that is the reason for the increase in numbers recently. Where there was large scale positive cases the numbers tested increased. The higher figures have occurred due to everyone being tested in the 3 factories in Llangefni, Wrexham and Merthyr. It is also backed up by how few cases are in hospital at the moment. Hywel Dda, Powys, Swansea Bay, Cwm Taf and Aneurin Bevan have no cases in Intensive care at the moment and very few cases in hospital. Cardiff and the Vale has 2 cases in Intensive care and Betsi Cadwalladr less than 5.
If there was large scale people with positive cases a larger number would have reported to A&E.
There is a report today that every English region other than the South West has a median R rate of between 0.9 and 1. This is before the effect of the opening of pubs takes hold.
The evidence clearly shows that the devolved administrations are performing better than England but then no facts can get in the way of you trying to paint Drakeford as bad because of your political view.
No the evidence doesn't clearly show that.
At a low level of infection the R is too sensitive to draw conclusions from. It has risen slightly in some areas, but that same report says that the overall growth rate shows a decrease in cases.
I think you need to end this ridiculous England bashing. It's groundless.
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Is the lock down ending too soon? on 20:57 - Jul 10 with 1512 views
Is the lock down ending too soon? on 20:38 - Jul 10 by Scotia
No the evidence doesn't clearly show that.
At a low level of infection the R is too sensitive to draw conclusions from. It has risen slightly in some areas, but that same report says that the overall growth rate shows a decrease in cases.
I think you need to end this ridiculous England bashing. It's groundless.
England’s R rate creeping back up to 1 week after lockdown is eased
Coronavirus map LIVE: UK on brink of second wave as R-rate hits 1 - new lockdown warning THE R rate in England - the estimated reproduction rate - has increased 1.0 in England, triggering fears of more local lockdowns throughout the country.
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Is the lock down ending too soon? on 21:13 - Jul 10 with 1493 views
The first figure is the median the second the low and the third the high. This figures are of now.
So, from those posts, the virus in England is probably continuing to decline as they move out of lock down. They have far more freedom than any other nation of the uk and the virus is controlled.
What do you think is wrong with that?
Whereas we are in a very similar situation regarding new infections but in a far tighter lockdown. I really am struggling to understand what point you are trying to make.
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Is the lock down ending too soon? on 21:35 - Jul 10 with 1479 views
Is the lock down ending too soon? on 21:30 - Jul 10 by Scotia
So, from those posts, the virus in England is probably continuing to decline as they move out of lock down. They have far more freedom than any other nation of the uk and the virus is controlled.
What do you think is wrong with that?
Whereas we are in a very similar situation regarding new infections but in a far tighter lockdown. I really am struggling to understand what point you are trying to make.
I think we all know the danger of the R rate being near 1. If you unlock then, well .... its a gamble with public health.
The medical advice says get the R rate down to 0.5 or 0.6 and then you have the headroom to unlock a little. If the R rate goes up as a result then further unlock should be put on hold. This is the science led approach. This is Wales.
I am sure you will understand how much of a good job our Welsh Parliament has done, when you re-read the following from our HMRC friend.
‘Hywel Dda, Powys, Swansea Bay, Cwm Taf and Aneurin Bevan have no cases in Intensive care at the moment and very few cases in hospital. Cardiff and the Vale has 2 cases in Intensive care and Betsi Cadwalladr less than 5. ‘
Outstanding. ðŸ‘ðŸ‘
Beware of the Risen People
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Is the lock down ending too soon? on 22:07 - Jul 10 with 1457 views
Is the lock down ending too soon? on 21:30 - Jul 10 by Scotia
So, from those posts, the virus in England is probably continuing to decline as they move out of lock down. They have far more freedom than any other nation of the uk and the virus is controlled.
What do you think is wrong with that?
Whereas we are in a very similar situation regarding new infections but in a far tighter lockdown. I really am struggling to understand what point you are trying to make.
We are not in a similar position. We have had a massive drop in cases, drop in deaths and people in hospital and in intensive care units. The same kind of thing is true of the other devolved nations. England is currently on a tightrope. A marginal increase would mean some form of lockdown being brought back possibly local lockdowns in a number of areas. Yesterday it was shown that 41 areas of England had more than 10 cases per 100,000. There hasnt been shown a Welsh equivalent but the only Welsh authority with that is likely to be Wrexham. The figures just dont lie. Swansea Bay 6 cases in 7 days, Cardiff and the Vale 15, Aneurin Bevan 9, Cwm Taf 18, Hywel Dda 5 and Powys 0 are not going to work out over 10 even if some of the Pillar 2 cases are included. Betsi Cadwalladr has had more 48 but most of them relate to Wrexham so it is unlikely any of the other authorities will be over 10. 21 of the cases in Betsi Cadwalladr were from the 4th July so tomorrow's weekly figure is likely to be far lower given that for the last 6 days there has been 9, 3, 2, 2, 4 and 7 each day. Todays 7 includes 5 from Wrexham.
Individually the figures for local authorities make excellent reading
Swansea 4 new cases last 7 days. Neath Port Talbot 2 Carmarthen 3 Pembrokeshire 1 Ceredigion 1 Powys 0 Bridgend 3 Cardiff 7 Newport 3
I realise that you dont like it but part of the reason our figures are dropping so much has been down to the stay local advice as has been the position in Scotland. The evidence clearly shows it has worked in preventing the spread into areas of low cases. For that Drakeford deserves the credit whether you like it or not.
Just to highlight the drop I have compared figures with a week previously 10/7 10 3/7 26 9/7 16 2/7 41 8/7 13 1/7 32 7/7 7 30/6 26 6/7 8 29/6 116 5/7 15 28/6 25 4/7 34 27/6 46
Nearly every day is a drop over 1/2 the previous week and the figures will go lower once the Wrexham problem is resolved.
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Is the lock down ending too soon? on 22:32 - Jul 10 with 1444 views
Is the lock down ending too soon? on 21:43 - Jul 10 by Kilkennyjack
I think we all know the danger of the R rate being near 1. If you unlock then, well .... its a gamble with public health.
The medical advice says get the R rate down to 0.5 or 0.6 and then you have the headroom to unlock a little. If the R rate goes up as a result then further unlock should be put on hold. This is the science led approach. This is Wales.
I am sure you will understand how much of a good job our Welsh Parliament has done, when you re-read the following from our HMRC friend.
‘Hywel Dda, Powys, Swansea Bay, Cwm Taf and Aneurin Bevan have no cases in Intensive care at the moment and very few cases in hospital. Cardiff and the Vale has 2 cases in Intensive care and Betsi Cadwalladr less than 5. ‘
Outstanding. ðŸ‘ðŸ‘
What do you actually do for a living?
You give it out, you take it back it`s all part of the game
Is the lock down ending too soon? on 22:07 - Jul 10 by exhmrc1
We are not in a similar position. We have had a massive drop in cases, drop in deaths and people in hospital and in intensive care units. The same kind of thing is true of the other devolved nations. England is currently on a tightrope. A marginal increase would mean some form of lockdown being brought back possibly local lockdowns in a number of areas. Yesterday it was shown that 41 areas of England had more than 10 cases per 100,000. There hasnt been shown a Welsh equivalent but the only Welsh authority with that is likely to be Wrexham. The figures just dont lie. Swansea Bay 6 cases in 7 days, Cardiff and the Vale 15, Aneurin Bevan 9, Cwm Taf 18, Hywel Dda 5 and Powys 0 are not going to work out over 10 even if some of the Pillar 2 cases are included. Betsi Cadwalladr has had more 48 but most of them relate to Wrexham so it is unlikely any of the other authorities will be over 10. 21 of the cases in Betsi Cadwalladr were from the 4th July so tomorrow's weekly figure is likely to be far lower given that for the last 6 days there has been 9, 3, 2, 2, 4 and 7 each day. Todays 7 includes 5 from Wrexham.
Individually the figures for local authorities make excellent reading
Swansea 4 new cases last 7 days. Neath Port Talbot 2 Carmarthen 3 Pembrokeshire 1 Ceredigion 1 Powys 0 Bridgend 3 Cardiff 7 Newport 3
I realise that you dont like it but part of the reason our figures are dropping so much has been down to the stay local advice as has been the position in Scotland. The evidence clearly shows it has worked in preventing the spread into areas of low cases. For that Drakeford deserves the credit whether you like it or not.
Just to highlight the drop I have compared figures with a week previously 10/7 10 3/7 26 9/7 16 2/7 41 8/7 13 1/7 32 7/7 7 30/6 26 6/7 8 29/6 116 5/7 15 28/6 25 4/7 34 27/6 46
Nearly every day is a drop over 1/2 the previous week and the figures will go lower once the Wrexham problem is resolved.
We have had a massive drop and so have England. We are all on a tight rope what do you think will happen in 4 months time? Do you think the cases in England will stay in England. There is no border.
A marginal increase will mean lockdown in a number of places now and in the future. That is how this will be handled. Of course that is most likely in England first there is more of them.
Our stay local applied to everyone for whatever reason, Scotlands was for leisure. Ours was nonsense theirs wasn't, plus we tried to stop an airline flying from our airport over the sake of 48hrs.
We don't have those equivalent authorities, yet we have a very similar number of cases. They have lots of "Wrexhams" like Leicester and places in the North West.
We only have 22 local authorities, if you cherry pick their worst authorities of course you can find worse performers. It is worrying that we had one in the list of most infections. You do realise there are about 18 times more people in England than Wales?
This isn't a race to zero infections, you don't get this do you?
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