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Swansea 2018/19 Points Progress 18:31 - Sep 25 with 3912 viewsyescomeon

So based on Glyn1's "52 / 80 points relegation / promotion" thread [1] I put together some graphs. It wont fill the hole left by the Dav's stats shaped hole on here, but it's something.



This first plot shows the Swans cumulative points against games this season (black line w/ circles). The points per game projection based on the mean points totals for the champions (green), runner-up (blue), last play-off side (red) and last relegated side (magenta) are also given (solid lines). In addition to this the darker shaded areas of the corresponding colours indicated the average deviance from this mean for all champions, runners-up etc. across all Championship / Division 1 seasons going back to 1992/93 (where the current format was adopted). The lighter shaded area is defined by the maximum and minimum points totals for the champions, runners-up etc. going back to 1992/93. Finally the dashed black line is the points per game (p.p.g.) so far projected to the end of the season and the dot-dashed line is the p.p.g. projection based on the last 5 games.



The second image is much simpler, it's just the cumulative points total against games for the season so far (solid black line w/ circles) and the p.p.g. projection based on the whole season (dashed black line) and the last five games (dot-dashed line), along with the cumulative points total against games for past Swansea championship seasons (2008/09 - blue line, 2009/10 - red line, 2011/12 - green line).

The first graph should give us some idea of how we're doing with respect to past promoted / relegated / playoff sides, and the second should give us some idea how we're doing compared to past Swansea championship seasons (you get plots like this in football manager and I always liked them as it quickly tells the story of a season).

So after 9 games (still a bit early to tell how the season will go) the current p.p.g. ratio is not likely to get us a play-off place and would see us have a lower points total than any of our previous championship seasons. That said we've only played a small number of games and we've had a tough run recently.

I'll update these graphs as the games pass and when I get a minute.

[1] -
The 52 points / 80 points relegation / promotion progress report by Glyn1 19 Sep 2018 12:51
In the last five seasons 52 points would have been enough to avoid relegation, which is 11 points in every 10 matches.

In the last seasons 80 points would have been enough to get into the play offs, which is 17 points in every 10 matches.

So here are our targets:

After 10 matches: 11 points; 17 points.

After 20 matches: 22; 34.

After 30 matches: 33; 51.

After 40 matches: 44; 68.

After 46 matches: 52 points: 80 points.


[2] -
What are we missing and what's to come... by _ 23 Sep 2018 21:57
I think we need to look back on this question after the next 9 or 10 games.

We've got off to a strong, steady start, we're very composed at the back and our un-fashionable players are really staking a claim for their positions.

The last 2 away games we should have had 2 points and they are going to be up there among the hardest away games we'll have all season. They're out the way now and we've got some clearer roads ahead - at least on paper.

I think this run of games coming up is where we should really put all the good things we've taken from the first set of games and really put the pedal to the metal and get at teams high up the pitch - especially our home games.

Dyer and Routs are off the mark and have some much needed minutes under their belt and at home against the weaker teams they could really hurt them. Hopefully we'll see some calm in the ranks in terms of injuries and a run of games with an XI that we can start to describe as our best one.

I think we can go 442 or 4411 in this league, especially at home

------------------- Mulder --------------------
--------------- VdH ---- Rodon ---------------
Roberts ------------------------------ Olsson
---------------- Fer----- Grimes ---------------
Dyer ------------------------------------- Routs
--------------- Celina ---------------------------
------------------- McBurnie -------------------

And this is being really harsh on Naughton not picking him but on the other hand would make our bench really strong and with great options. No doubt Potter would rotate our forward 4 or 5 and this will bring great versatility. Every one can do a job for us on their day. I'm hoping there's some good days ahead.

Throw Bony into the mix and I think we're well on our way to a promotion challenging squad, especially if Potter identifies some targets in January and we get them. (let's not hijack debate with that one comment though, eh!?)

Bench/Squad:

Nordvelt
Declan John
Carter-Vickers
Naughton
Fulton
Carroll
Byers
Asoro
Mckay
Yan Dhanda
Dan James

If most are honest i'm sure you'll agree our squad is a pretty good one all in all and going in the right direction. There's a lot to like with the players listed above.

[Post edited 28 Oct 2018 21:21]

Upthecity!

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Swansea 2018/19 Points Progress on 18:32 - Sep 25 with 3908 viewsyescomeon



Projected position based on projected points total. Conversion from points to position based on average points of teams finishing in each position across all season back to 92/93.
[Post edited 28 Oct 2018 21:20]

Upthecity!

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Swansea 2018/19 Points Progress on 21:17 - Sep 25 with 3782 viewsairedale

The only graph I like is the Graf Spee.
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Swansea 2018/19 Points Progress on 20:39 - Sep 29 with 3561 viewsyescomeon

Figures updated following matchday 10.

- In terms of points we're pretty much where we were at this stage the season we went up.
- We're pretty much bang on the points per game ratio to finish in the final play-off spot, 6th place.

Upthecity!

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Swansea 2018/19 Points Progress on 21:23 - Oct 8 with 3441 viewsyescomeon

Updated after matchdays 11 and 12.

After the disappointing Ipswich result the projected end of season points total now drops to a 10th place finish with 65 points. The Swans lowest total for a championship season.

Upthecity!

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Swansea 2018/19 Points Progress on 21:27 - Oct 28 with 3166 viewsyescomeon

Updated after matchdays 13, 14 & 15.

The two wins on the bounce get us back on track for a play-off finish. Based on our points per game so far this season we'd on average finish 5th if we keep it up. The two wins in a row hasn't quite brought our points per game for the last 5 matches back in line with the whole season points per game after our poor run of results. Not reaching the highs of our promotion season, but we should still be in the mix if things stay as they are (at least from a Swans perspective).

Upthecity!

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Swansea 2018/19 Points Progress on 23:00 - Oct 28 with 3045 viewsLoyal

Swansea 2018/19 Points Progress on 21:17 - Sep 25 by airedale

The only graph I like is the Graf Spee.


Steffi has a tidy clump mind.

Nolan sympathiser, clout expert, personal friend of Leigh Dineen, advocate and enforcer of porridge swallows. The official inventor of the tit w@nk.
Poll: Who should be Swansea number 1

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