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Your link is fantastic. Did you even read it? Even the bloke who runs the shop says that he thinks some people may have thought it was a UKIP shop of some sort, but they now come in to buy stuff. Classic Standard, that.
Actually, 'buying British' is never being called racist - it's encouraged all the time, particularly with food, because of airmiles etc. Part of the problem is people aren't willing to pay for it. We live in a comparatively wealthy country, but we demand cheap produce. So to compete, farmers pay ludicrously low wages for extremely hard graft. We won't do that work, so workers are brought in from abroad. Then we complain they're stealing our jobs. As if it's their fault!
I'm a resolute remainer, but always try and buy British when I can. to use local shops when I can. To support local businesses when I can. The fact people don't has very little to do with the EU!
Agree it was a protest vote, and you and I and Anderson on here could argue until the Great British cows come home, but the fact is no one here *knows* with any degree of certainty what the right decision was. And we're people who've actually bothered reading both sides of the debate. The stupidity of asking a populace who is largely ignorant of all the hundreds of factors involved in this immense decision was the real mistake. And I don't mean 'ignorant' pejoratively. It's a mammoth, giant, complex web of pros and cons and pros to the cons and cons to the pros to consider. Who among us, with our jobs, our home life, our kids, our hours spent on Loft For Words, sex lives, internet surfing and keeping up to date with our personal hygiene, could possibly have a hope of really understanding it and having a rock solid, evidence-based view on it. you can't, so we are all at the mercy of our own prejudices, whether that's instinctively pro-Europe, or instinctively not.
If we're going to vote on things like this, why elect anyone at all? I can see the decision for a referendum on the voting system. In comparison, it's a simple thing to consider. But no one cared enough to bother voting in that one because it didn't appeal to any prejudices or touch any nerves. But it should have done. That referendum should have been about PR. And it should have won. And then the 4m UKIP voters would have had actual genuine representation in parliament and there could have been a proper debate on the EU membership among people whose fcking job it is to know about it and debate it.
I respect people who voted out. It was their prerogative. There are loads of good reasons to vote out, loads to stay in, and bad reasons for both. But as you say, it was a protest vote. Why the fk did we allow a referendum when people might use it as a protest vote?! It's a complete and utter mess.
To hold the Referendum was voted through Parliament with a massive majority .
Some MPS must have voted for that then voted not to trigger the result . I hope they are named and shamed in 2020 .
I keep seeing this argument that the EU has more to lose than the UK when it comes to trade.
UK exports to the EU are 13% of UK GDP. EU exports to the UK are 3% of EU GDP.
Spurious argument. These figures show the UK has significantly more to lose.
[Post edited 7 Feb 2017 16:36]
The rest of the EU sells about £70 billion more to us in goods and services than we sell to it, according to UK data–so the UK runs a “trade deficit” with the rest of the EU.
Exports of goods and services to other EU countries were worth £220 billion in 2015, while exports from the rest of the EU to the UK were worth about £290 billion.
Those figures differ if you look at EU data, as EU countries collect data about services in different ways. For example, EU data suggests goods and services exported from the rest of the EU to the UK could have valued up to £360 billion in 2014–higher than the £290 billion the UK data shows for 2014 and 2015.
Either way, the rest of the EU as a whole sells more to us than we sell to it, or looked at another way, we buy more from the rest of the EU than it buys from us, and that is the case for the majority of EU countries.
A bit extreme to place us with North Korea. Norway, because of the collapse in oil prices is now having to draw down on its sovereign fund for the first time ever, Switzerland is a nation which will more and more have to toe the EU line given the controversies of its banking system with the likes of Luxembourg ready to step in and take up the slack.
A UK/EU trade deal will occur, it will be free of tariffs, big business, especially that of Germany will see to that. We have a huge trade deficit with the rest of the EU, which tells me that they have much more to lose than we do in terms of a no trade deal. Anything that ends up at the WTO in terms of trade will cost our exporters and will cost their exporters. Governments will have to subsidies, funds that they can scarcely afford at this moment in time. Jobs could be lost, which governments could scarcely afford at this moment in time and in addition to this the EU is currently having to figure out a black hole of £185million per week, £9billion per year, which was the UK's net contribution to the EU. European leaders can bluster all they like but in reality they will need to realise the reality of the situation and the one European leader who has been conspicuous by their absence in terms of economic threats to the UK has been Angela Merkel. She knows the reality of the situation, she also knows that if the effects of the UK leaving the EU also means that the likes of countries such as Greece, Spain, Italy, Ireland and Portugal also leaving due to continued economic decline and increasing financial reliance, then the remaining EU would actually become a stronger entity not having to waste funds on these nations.
That's a great post except of course Greece can never leave . They are the EU S bitch
They can never pay the money back, Hotel California for them .
and nothing has changed They are alive and well going by this thread
As said earlier by others, I too think people have the right to still want UK to be in the EU. However, what people need to stop doing is bleating on about June 23rd and the lies etc. etc. and moaning that Leavers are messing with people lives etc (Leavers may think the same about Remainers, did they think of that?). It's all been done to death.
We need to change things. Convince everyone through truth etc that rejoing would be the right thing to do. Make politicians tell the truth in pre-election campaigning and make them accountable for their lies even if they get in.
As I said, this referendum more than anything else I've seen in the last few decades is a real wake up call and an opportunity to sort all the s**t out.
Let's use it and hope the outcome will be the right one.
Those opposed to EU membership have c*nted on about it for 40 years. Non-stop. Literally non-stop. Now, because they won one vote, suddenly everybody who disagrees with them is supposed to shut up. Sorry, no, it doesn't work like that. I hope every single mistake caused by Brexit and the people behind it get pointed out.
To hold the Referendum was voted through Parliament with a massive majority .
Some MPS must have voted for that then voted not to trigger the result . I hope they are named and shamed in 2020 .
Oh come on Essex! It was a stupid manifesto pledge made only as a sop to UKIP and the right of the tory party, because Cameron never in his wildest dreams thought he'd win the election outright and assumed the Libs would block it! He had a majority so of course they had to vote for it! Doesn't make it any less stupid!
As said earlier by others, I too think people have the right to still want UK to be in the EU. However, what people need to stop doing is bleating on about June 23rd and the lies etc. etc. and moaning that Leavers are messing with people lives etc (Leavers may think the same about Remainers, did they think of that?). It's all been done to death.
We need to change things. Convince everyone through truth etc that rejoing would be the right thing to do. Make politicians tell the truth in pre-election campaigning and make them accountable for their lies even if they get in.
As I said, this referendum more than anything else I've seen in the last few decades is a real wake up call and an opportunity to sort all the s**t out.
Let's use it and hope the outcome will be the right one.
I think you are missing something here, it's makes no difference who lied.
The true is...The EU in charge is what people rejected
Not having a say is what they rejected, this was borne out with the EU unmoving on immigration/free movement.
Merkel opening the borders may well have tipped many in to voting to leave.
You can spin me up any old crap you like saying that's no true. but it is.
No one cares about what lies were told by both sides.... well only the remoans and if you think you can change the vote on that, you're deluded.
A bit extreme to place us with North Korea. Norway, because of the collapse in oil prices is now having to draw down on its sovereign fund for the first time ever, Switzerland is a nation which will more and more have to toe the EU line given the controversies of its banking system with the likes of Luxembourg ready to step in and take up the slack.
A UK/EU trade deal will occur, it will be free of tariffs, big business, especially that of Germany will see to that. We have a huge trade deficit with the rest of the EU, which tells me that they have much more to lose than we do in terms of a no trade deal. Anything that ends up at the WTO in terms of trade will cost our exporters and will cost their exporters. Governments will have to subsidies, funds that they can scarcely afford at this moment in time. Jobs could be lost, which governments could scarcely afford at this moment in time and in addition to this the EU is currently having to figure out a black hole of £185million per week, £9billion per year, which was the UK's net contribution to the EU. European leaders can bluster all they like but in reality they will need to realise the reality of the situation and the one European leader who has been conspicuous by their absence in terms of economic threats to the UK has been Angela Merkel. She knows the reality of the situation, she also knows that if the effects of the UK leaving the EU also means that the likes of countries such as Greece, Spain, Italy, Ireland and Portugal also leaving due to continued economic decline and increasing financial reliance, then the remaining EU would actually become a stronger entity not having to waste funds on these nations.
Every other country is at least a member of a preferential trading bloc, even Somalia. That doesn't mean the UK becomes North Korea overnight but it shows how uncharted these waters are in the modern world.
Your comment about Switzerland gives the lie to notions of independence. Switzerland is a big net importer too. It's a ham and eggs comparison - if Britain needs bananas, it will have to do a deal or else no bananas. If Bananaland wants to export to Britain, it will have to do a deal, but it's only a small per cent of its trade so less to lose.
The main British export, finance, is on balance very moveable. Legal services a bit less so, as moving jurisdiction on a contract from common law to another statutory environment is tricky.
I can imagine e.g. a ten year tariff-free transition in which e.g. Mercedes will be able to unpick their supply chains, and the UK will be able to reconsider its position
*Like everyone else I don't have a clue - we shall see. I'm more worried for my relatives in the UK than for myself in the "rest of the world" though.
A magnificent football club, the love of our lives, finding a way to finally have its day in the sun.
Well we agree on lots of points, but the idea of a nation that can manage on its own is ancient, ancient history. London has a food footprint the size of Spain. Enjoy those potatoes, there won't be room to grow the meat with the two beige veg.
Britain will join a select group in two years - the only other country in no trade bloc is North Korea. Switzerland has 40 years of trade deals under its belt, and it takes advantage of its smallness to be Europe's tax haven. Norway has 40 years of trade deals, monstrous piles of oil and no people to spend it on. etc. etc.
There's plenty to mend in the EU, starting with the CAP which flies in the face of all the principles, but the idea of better off out is absolute fantasy, and anyone who says otherwise is straight up lying.
Anyway, give it 50 years, we'll be in some trade bloc with a new name and the Sun will still be telling everyone what wan kers they all are.
You should be pleased for your kids ,there is massive youth unemployment in the Euro zone . They will be free from having to subsidise that . I have three adult boys and a granddaughter ,I voted out for them , not me .
By the way only 24% of young people bothered to vote
Brexit isn't a fantasy , it's happening and if it's taking a while to prepare for it you should remember that one of the first things Cameron did in the campaign was to deny any "out" members of parliament access to civil servants . He also as the Prime Minister failed to do even the slightest preparation for a leave vote.
The legal arguments are being dealt with one by one , the name calling , insults and mudslinging continue .
YES BUT THERE ISN'T HERE - we were benefitting very nicely as a country from being in Europe.
The reason people are coming here is because we're going well. The plan is basically 'ruin everything and then no one will come so our immigration obsession can be satisfied'. You really think the UK has some core brilliance that will shine on when we remove ourselves from one of the biggest trading blocks in the world? It's patriotic clap trap fantasy. You've been fed a pack of lies.
essextaxiboy - I look forward to picking this thread up in two years / four years / six years time.
The economy on the downturn will be ours. That I guarantee. This is huge mistake - thanks for dragging me and half the population into with you. I hope you'll be around to pick up the bill when we're bankrupt. No - you won't.
The analysis is very detailed and comprehensive and at a level where the population demographics can be correlated with the referendum voting patterns. It does confirm suspicions that the younger and better educated voted to Remain, while the older and less well educated voted Leave. That certainly tallies with my personal experiences. The only people I know well that voted Leave were from my brother's side of the family and none would be classed as well educated.
I wonder if it is because a better formal education opens up more opportunities in life and the Remainers have had more personal experiences communicating with citizens of other EU countries. My parents were economic migrants, from Ireland in the 1940s. I've worked in Germany, France and Ireland and I've also worked in the UK alongside colleagues from France, Spain, Poland, Italy, Ireland, Portugal, Lithuania and Bulgaria. I can also speak reasonable conversational French. Those characteristics and a detailed understanding of the issues involved meant that voting Remain was never in doubt.
Despite what some posters may claim, the correlation between a degree level education and intelligence isn't really open to much doubt. Although, I accept that there are "well educated" people who seem to hide that intelligence and there are people without a formal high level educational qualification who are very intelligent.
I'm not sure what the analysis tells us, at this late stage. We will leave and I accept that. Any negative consequences are more likely to hit those who voted Leave.
If the OP had used less well educated rather than Stupid then it would not have received as many contradictory posts in response.
"Travel is fatal to prejudice, bigotry and narrow-mindedness, and many of our people need it sorely on these accounts. Broad, wholesome, charitable views of men and things cannot be acquired by vegetating in one little corner of the Earth all one's lifetime." (Mark Twain)
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(No subject) (n/t) on 17:57 - Feb 7 with 2681 views
YES BUT THERE ISN'T HERE - we were benefitting very nicely as a country from being in Europe.
The reason people are coming here is because we're going well. The plan is basically 'ruin everything and then no one will come so our immigration obsession can be satisfied'. You really think the UK has some core brilliance that will shine on when we remove ourselves from one of the biggest trading blocks in the world? It's patriotic clap trap fantasy. You've been fed a pack of lies.
essextaxiboy - I look forward to picking this thread up in two years / four years / six years time.
The economy on the downturn will be ours. That I guarantee. This is huge mistake - thanks for dragging me and half the population into with you. I hope you'll be around to pick up the bill when we're bankrupt. No - you won't.
" The plan is basically 'ruin everything and then no one will come so our immigration obsession can be satisfied'."
The analysis is very detailed and comprehensive and at a level where the population demographics can be correlated with the referendum voting patterns. It does confirm suspicions that the younger and better educated voted to Remain, while the older and less well educated voted Leave. That certainly tallies with my personal experiences. The only people I know well that voted Leave were from my brother's side of the family and none would be classed as well educated.
I wonder if it is because a better formal education opens up more opportunities in life and the Remainers have had more personal experiences communicating with citizens of other EU countries. My parents were economic migrants, from Ireland in the 1940s. I've worked in Germany, France and Ireland and I've also worked in the UK alongside colleagues from France, Spain, Poland, Italy, Ireland, Portugal, Lithuania and Bulgaria. I can also speak reasonable conversational French. Those characteristics and a detailed understanding of the issues involved meant that voting Remain was never in doubt.
Despite what some posters may claim, the correlation between a degree level education and intelligence isn't really open to much doubt. Although, I accept that there are "well educated" people who seem to hide that intelligence and there are people without a formal high level educational qualification who are very intelligent.
I'm not sure what the analysis tells us, at this late stage. We will leave and I accept that. Any negative consequences are more likely to hit those who voted Leave.
If the OP had used less well educated rather than Stupid then it would not have received as many contradictory posts in response.
So the better educated made a decision to remain. It is really that outrageous to suggest that therefore means the more 'educated' decision (properly researched, understood and considered) was to remain?
Because if we're not saying education helps your personal development then what is the point in eduction. If we're all at the same point with or without it why are we bothering at all? We might as well not teach children anything, they'll be just as capable... right?
Why don't we just let uneducated people be surgeons. They'll make just as good a job of it.
I'm not talking about class or wealth i'm talking about eduction. Educated comprehension of the facts would tell you that Brexit is terrible terrible idea.
YES BUT THERE ISN'T HERE - we were benefitting very nicely as a country from being in Europe.
The reason people are coming here is because we're going well. The plan is basically 'ruin everything and then no one will come so our immigration obsession can be satisfied'. You really think the UK has some core brilliance that will shine on when we remove ourselves from one of the biggest trading blocks in the world? It's patriotic clap trap fantasy. You've been fed a pack of lies.
essextaxiboy - I look forward to picking this thread up in two years / four years / six years time.
The economy on the downturn will be ours. That I guarantee. This is huge mistake - thanks for dragging me and half the population into with you. I hope you'll be around to pick up the bill when we're bankrupt. No - you won't.
I'm always fascinated by this remain angle that things were going so well in this country. Absolutely bizarre. The gap between rich and poor grows a pace as does the use of food banks, the slashing of benefits, the race to the bottom in the job market, every type of community service from libraries to playing fields to support for the vulnerable being absolutely decimated, the NHS being driven to its knees, the very life blood of our infrastructure being sold to the highest bidder/corporate investor/foreign hedge fund who will be demanding an annual profit from us, our children, our children's children ad infinitum, the ever growing unserviceable debt to the illusionary monetary system that guarantees our future generation's economic slavery etc etc.
All happening whilst in our great saviour the EU.
But good to know you'll be back in four years to tell us where it all went wrong. Sigh. We're all gonna need to be a little bit stronger emotionally than some of us are showing and perhaps, dare I say it, even a little more positive, optimistic and thoughtful about what we we can all do individually and collectively to improve our society and communities.
Come and join us. Or just pretend that everything was and would always have been fine in the EU. An EU, I might add, whose lack of popularity with millions of its citizens you will soon learn much more about in the next year or so. A lot seems to be done to keep that quiet, but it is about to burst irreversibly through the seams.
An economically co operative Europe that is not led and dominated by the people, organisations and consciousness responsible for this type of corporations over democracy enforceable legislation https://corporateeurope.org/international-trade/2016/11/great-ceta-swindle is one I look forward to getting behind in times to come.
If it was just a trade bloc I don't think we'd have voted out.
Someone above mentioned the EU ebing in charge and then Merkel allowing the borders open carte blance tipped thew balance.
Alot of truth in that I feel, also I'd suggest that the EU itself is a problem Europe doesn't need.
The EU constantly said basically "my way or the high way" and to hell with what any one thinks - as a result many people said ok the highway.
I suspect if we make a success of it then other countries will start to edge that way (and many already are) then the EU and it's Gravy train will be out.
That terrifies them.
Many countries are in Trade Blocs, they are not in a "Union" which is basically trying to amalgamate many countries into one.
The vote back in the 70's - well before I was born was about the EEC not the European Union of today which rules on all sorts of things surrounding our life in this country and many others. The EEC back then was not able to do that.
YES BUT THERE ISN'T HERE - we were benefitting very nicely as a country from being in Europe.
The reason people are coming here is because we're going well. The plan is basically 'ruin everything and then no one will come so our immigration obsession can be satisfied'. You really think the UK has some core brilliance that will shine on when we remove ourselves from one of the biggest trading blocks in the world? It's patriotic clap trap fantasy. You've been fed a pack of lies.
essextaxiboy - I look forward to picking this thread up in two years / four years / six years time.
The economy on the downturn will be ours. That I guarantee. This is huge mistake - thanks for dragging me and half the population into with you. I hope you'll be around to pick up the bill when we're bankrupt. No - you won't.
Congratulations for the most self-righteous post of the year
I'm always fascinated by this remain angle that things were going so well in this country. Absolutely bizarre. The gap between rich and poor grows a pace as does the use of food banks, the slashing of benefits, the race to the bottom in the job market, every type of community service from libraries to playing fields to support for the vulnerable being absolutely decimated, the NHS being driven to its knees, the very life blood of our infrastructure being sold to the highest bidder/corporate investor/foreign hedge fund who will be demanding an annual profit from us, our children, our children's children ad infinitum, the ever growing unserviceable debt to the illusionary monetary system that guarantees our future generation's economic slavery etc etc.
All happening whilst in our great saviour the EU.
But good to know you'll be back in four years to tell us where it all went wrong. Sigh. We're all gonna need to be a little bit stronger emotionally than some of us are showing and perhaps, dare I say it, even a little more positive, optimistic and thoughtful about what we we can all do individually and collectively to improve our society and communities.
Come and join us. Or just pretend that everything was and would always have been fine in the EU. An EU, I might add, whose lack of popularity with millions of its citizens you will soon learn much more about in the next year or so. A lot seems to be done to keep that quiet, but it is about to burst irreversibly through the seams.
An economically co operative Europe that is not led and dominated by the people, organisations and consciousness responsible for this type of corporations over democracy enforceable legislation https://corporateeurope.org/international-trade/2016/11/great-ceta-swindle is one I look forward to getting behind in times to come.
So the better educated made a decision to remain. It is really that outrageous to suggest that therefore means the more 'educated' decision (properly researched, understood and considered) was to remain?
Because if we're not saying education helps your personal development then what is the point in eduction. If we're all at the same point with or without it why are we bothering at all? We might as well not teach children anything, they'll be just as capable... right?
Why don't we just let uneducated people be surgeons. They'll make just as good a job of it.
I'm not talking about class or wealth i'm talking about eduction. Educated comprehension of the facts would tell you that Brexit is terrible terrible idea.
I am yet to meet a remainer, including on here, whose views I would consider to be more 'properly researched, understood and considered' than mine. It also includes, as I posted in a previous thread, Liberal Party workers who felt they had enough knowledge to go doorstep to doorstep campaigning for the new liberal MP pretty much solely on the issue of Brexit. They knew f*ck all, it was embarrassing.
And yet there remains (see what I did there) a superiority held by many of them. Even though whenever I put up some very detailed research on here about Ceta etc they would rather just ignore it and go on about 'posters on buses' and racists because it suits their narrative as opposed to maybe having some detailed discussions, debates and admissions that their knowledge base could be expanded about the deeper issues of the EU and what membership of it really means.
I think it was Juzzie who described it earlier in the thread as quasi religious, very good.
The rest of the EU sells about £70 billion more to us in goods and services than we sell to it, according to UK data–so the UK runs a “trade deficit” with the rest of the EU.
Exports of goods and services to other EU countries were worth £220 billion in 2015, while exports from the rest of the EU to the UK were worth about £290 billion.
Those figures differ if you look at EU data, as EU countries collect data about services in different ways. For example, EU data suggests goods and services exported from the rest of the EU to the UK could have valued up to £360 billion in 2014–higher than the £290 billion the UK data shows for 2014 and 2015.
Either way, the rest of the EU as a whole sells more to us than we sell to it, or looked at another way, we buy more from the rest of the EU than it buys from us, and that is the case for the majority of EU countries.
The EU stand to lose more than the UK if they decide to start a trade war.
Real figures not percentages? What are you on about.
What's the point of that figure if you don't compare it to the whole? Your article says as much itself:
"The £220 billion exports of goods and services to other EU countries were worth about 12% of the value of the British economy in 2015, and £230 billion or 13% in 2014. It’s stayed at around 13-15% over the past decade.
Exports from the rest of the EU to the UK were worth about 3-4% of the size of the remaining EU’s economy in 2014."
It's a valid statistic as you'd be more hurt by losing 13% of your trade than 3% of your trade.
YES BUT THERE ISN'T HERE - we were benefitting very nicely as a country from being in Europe.
The reason people are coming here is because we're going well. The plan is basically 'ruin everything and then no one will come so our immigration obsession can be satisfied'. You really think the UK has some core brilliance that will shine on when we remove ourselves from one of the biggest trading blocks in the world? It's patriotic clap trap fantasy. You've been fed a pack of lies.
essextaxiboy - I look forward to picking this thread up in two years / four years / six years time.
The economy on the downturn will be ours. That I guarantee. This is huge mistake - thanks for dragging me and half the population into with you. I hope you'll be around to pick up the bill when we're bankrupt. No - you won't.
We were told this vote was for a generation so even 6 years is early doors
What would be a fair point to claim vindication ? There will always be some pro Europe think tank that says " if we had stayed we would be this much weathier"
We are a big net contributor to the EU . I would be happy to see it collapse behind us and be rebuilt as a trading block only .
We would have to think of a name for it ... How about The Common Market .?
Real figures not percentages? What are you on about.
What's the point of that figure if you don't compare it to the whole? Your article says as much itself:
"The £220 billion exports of goods and services to other EU countries were worth about 12% of the value of the British economy in 2015, and £230 billion or 13% in 2014. It’s stayed at around 13-15% over the past decade.
Exports from the rest of the EU to the UK were worth about 3-4% of the size of the remaining EU’s economy in 2014."
It's a valid statistic as you'd be more hurt by losing 13% of your trade than 3% of your trade.
Yep. Percentages can't be ignored just because they don't suit the argument being made.
The UK is one country. The rest of the EU is 27. Whatever figures you choose can't alter the obvious fact that those 27 economies are bigger than our one by some magnitude.
It's true that the UK does hold some cards, eg financial services. But the notion that the EU has more to lose is completely fanciful.
The rest of the EU sells about £70 billion more to us in goods and services than we sell to it, according to UK data–so the UK runs a “trade deficit” with the rest of the EU.
Exports of goods and services to other EU countries were worth £220 billion in 2015, while exports from the rest of the EU to the UK were worth about £290 billion.
Those figures differ if you look at EU data, as EU countries collect data about services in different ways. For example, EU data suggests goods and services exported from the rest of the EU to the UK could have valued up to £360 billion in 2014–higher than the £290 billion the UK data shows for 2014 and 2015.
Either way, the rest of the EU as a whole sells more to us than we sell to it, or looked at another way, we buy more from the rest of the EU than it buys from us, and that is the case for the majority of EU countries.
The EU stand to lose more than the UK if they decide to start a trade war.
No. What matters here is the percentage, because that's the measure of power. And, in percentage terms, the EU is far more important to the UK than the UK is to EU. An end to trade may result in a greater gross loss to the EU, but it will have far more trade to fall back on that the UK will. GDP isn't even the most chilling figure. Look instead at exports.
In 2015, 44% of UK exports went to the EU. 16% of EU exports went to the UK.
Put simply, nearly half of UK manufacturing relies on the EU. Less than a sixth of EU manufacturing relies on the UK.
The balance of power is entirely in the EU's favour.
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