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How Many Of The Southampton Squad Will Still Be Here After Transfer Window

With the phoney transfer window about to end on Saturday with the end of contracts and payment of loyalty bonus's, the real business will begin, here we take a look at who is likely to be leaving in the next two months.

The first few weeks of the summer transfer window are always quiet, there are the odd deal done here and there, mainly big transfers, but the reality is little is done until July 1st has passed and the players bank accounts bulge with loyalty bonus's that make a mockery of the phrase for club's such as Saints who have been relegated.

Those players who have let the club down throughout a poor season, rarely hang around to put things right in the following season if there is interest in them elsewhere, they often find that they have contracts that the buying club is unwilling to match, that isn't a problem, make it clear that you won't play in the Championship, so if no one will pay the going rate, you want a loan move.

Perhaps a ban on players at relegated clubs being sold for a year might in principle be a good idea, but that is never going to happen.

So just who is likely to move and who is likely to stay.

Starting at the back and moving forward, here is our view of just who might go.

In goal I don't see too much movement, Gavin Bazunu might have received some criticism, but there is mitigating circumstances in the way he was thrown in behind a shambles of a defence at a young age, a year ago he was one of the best keepers in League One, there is no reason that he should not flourish in the Championship.

Alex McCarthy is on too big a contract to go anywhere.

At right back there is much speculation that Tino Livramento is wanted by Newcastle United, Football League World suggest that the Magpies have had a bid of £15 million turned down by Saints and quite rightly so, potentially he is worth double that.

It is also stated that Newcastle have a transfer budget of £75 million which they are about to blow £60 million on Sandro Tonali from AC Milan.

My thoughts are that if a club were willing to fork out £30 million then given the uncertainty after his year long injury, then we should perhaps take it, in the short term we have James Bree who is proven in the Championship in this position and the upcoming Lewis Payne.

Likewise Kyle Walker Peters, I would expect at least £25 million for him should he go, based on the fact that 3 years ago we paid £15 million for a player who had barely played a Premier League game and who now has an England cap.

In the centre of defence both Salisu & Armel Bella-Kotchap are certain to be the subject of bids and we can expect a minimum £20-25 million for each of them, their talent is undisputed, their attitude less so.

Lyanco looks likely to also depart, probably for around £5 million and Duje Caleta -Car seems bound for Tranzonspor alongside with Mislav Orsic.

Jack Stephens may be the subject of a bid from Bournemouth and although I have seen no reports of any interest in Jan Bednarek, I think that given a low price of around £10-12 million given he still has two years left on his contract.

At left back Romain Perraud could leave and we have a ready made replacement in Juan Larios, who looked promising last season before picking up the injury that kept him out of the the second half of the season.

The midfield could be ravaged, Romeo Lavia could be going to Liverpool, Chelsea, Arsenal or even Manchester United depending on which report you believe, all give the price as a minimum of £50 million.

James Ward Prowse could well go, I said a few weeks back that the key here would be West Ham's situation after the Europa Conference League final, they won and are in the Europa League, that will be a deal breaker, I think with a lack of Big 7 interest in his JWP might have stayed, but European football will be a big temptation, £40 million will be the starting price.

These are the players that are highly likely to go, assuming that Newcastle don't increase their offer for Tino and in the short he stays then between the rest we could bring in at a conservative estimate £175 million.

Then we get into those that could equally stay or go.

The two big names here are Kameldeen Sulemana and Carlos Alcaraz, we paid around £20 million for Sulemana and that valuation is likely to have risen, likewise Alcaraz, he cost us £13 million, but his will have risen sharply and could touch £20 million.

Nathan Tella seems to be in demand, but only by Burnley, Transfermark have his value at 18 million Euros, so Saints will demand at least £16 million for him, but Burnley do not seem to want to pay that, so he could well end up staying at St Mary's.

Stuart Armstrong could be another going, now 31 and with injury issues I cannot see Saints bothered either way, of course it would be good to see him stay, but if we were to get a fee of around £5 million I think we could take it.

Up front I think we would love to ship Tall Pall Onauchu back to Europe, but his salary will prevent a permanent deal, I think we will look to recoup some of his transfer outlay back from loan moves, but I think we may try him in the Championship first and see how he does in August, if it isn't working expect a loan move on deadline day.

Che Adams will attract interest, with 4 years in the Premier League under his belt he is worth around £20 million, but with only a year left on his contract that probably wont be matched, I expect him to go for £15 million to a lower table Premier League club.

So from the second half of our transfer list it is very uncertain, on one hand we could rake in around £75 million, on the other most of them could stay, if they did we would truly have a great squad for next season.

I think we will rake in at least £150 million overall, but that could end up being as much as £225 million.

Whichever it is, I think we will need to spend around £60 million of that to give us strength down the spine, two proven central defenders, a leader with experience in the centre of the park and a proven striker.

I am actually excited about this season, I am not fazed by a large number of players leaving due to the transfer fees that they will bring in, we should remember that we are looking for players who can do a job in the Championship and not the Premier League.

Of course we will not replace JWP, KWP or Lavia with players anywhere near their quality, but the situation is what it is, we need players who can perform in the Championship and we have those such as James Bree, Adam Armstrong, Will Smallbone and Nathan Tella who are proven at that level for the job they need to do, likewise perhaps Ibrahima Diallo, Sekou Mara could flourish, don't judge them by Premier League levels.

I would hope that Saints would spend wisely and put the other two thirds of the money away for next summers transfer budget when hopefully we will be back in the Premier League

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