With a tough run of fixtures ahead times are growing desperate for QPR who this Saturday welcome near neighbours Fulham to Loftus Road with memories of a 6-0 thrashing earlier this season still fresh in the mind.
Barclays Premier League >>> Saturday February 25, 2012 >>> Kick Off 3pm >>> Loftus Road, London, W12
If QPR are relegated this season then it could, to the delight of our friends from the other side of Hammersmith Broadway, owe much to the two league fixtures with Fulham this season.
Rangers’ last ten fixtures of the season were picked by the devil himself making the next three against Fulham, Everton and Bolton absolutely crucial to Mark Hughes – but then the last two were crucial for the same reason and QPR lost both, conceding five in the process, to two dreadful teams. A defeat at Loftus Road against a Fulham team who Rangers haven’t even scored a goal against in five attempts would start to make the picture look very bleak indeed.
It’s hard not to look back to the first meeting of these sides this season and see it as a key moment. We were beaten 6-0 that day, and deserved it too, but the result came completely out of the blue. QPR had won their previous away match 3-0 at Wolves, and drawn two home matches either side of that against Newcastle and Aston Villa while absolutely dominating the games. Against Newcastle poor finishing and against Villa dreadful refereeing denied QPR what they’d deserved – three wins from three games – and then suddenly they lost 6-0 to a Fulham team struggling for league form amid a hectic Europa League laced fixture list.
It was a fluke. One of those days. Proof that despite the new arrivals QPR still couldn’t afford to play at 60% of their true potential in the Premiership or they’d face the consequences. It should have been ignored, written off, laughed about and quickly forgotten. Neil Warnock had said prior to the start of the season, before he was allowed to bring the bigger names in that he nailed at the end of the transfer window, that his team may take some thrashings but it would always have a go and play to win the game. Fine, a Blackpool type philosophy sounded good to everybody and worked a treat in the first six weeks of the season.
But when, true to Warnock’s word, we did take a thrashing at Fulham it seemed to terrify him. A week later, against a poor Blackburn team at Loftus Road, we played with two deep lying defensive midfielders and a lone striker in a drab 1-1 draw. So the idea that we’d play to win every game and have to take a few big ones on the chin as a result wasn’t true at all – we played to win every game until we took a big one on the chin and then we abandoned the approach and went overly cautious. In games since then against Blackburn, Liverpool, Man Utd and Swansea it was hard to come away not believing there could have been more there for Rangers had they just been a bit more positive about it all. That strange day in the sun at Craven Cottage cost QPR their whole philosophy for the season, replaced instead by fear, and ultimately did much to cost Neil Warnock his job.
Rangers have no choice but to be positive over the next fortnight. Two wins have to be a minimum requirement from Fulham and Everton at home and then Bolton away because games at Sunderland, Man Utd, Chelsea and Man City, and at home to Arsenal, Liverpool and Spurs lie in store with only really the fixtures against West Brom, Swansea and Stoke offering up any realistic hopes.
Having railed against suggestions that games in mid December were “must win” encounters even I would now concede that we’re drinking in the Last Chance Saloon. It’s by no means the final round of drinks, more light ales at the moment, but we’re there all the same. Let’s hope the drinks are on Bobby Zamora or somebody else in Hoops come 5pm this Saturday.
Links >>> Opposition Profile >>> Fixture History >>> Referee >>> Weekend Tube Closures
Team News: QPR could give a debut to Mali midfielder Samba Diakite after he arrived back from the African Cup of Nations during the two week break. They are however still without suspended striker Djibril Cisse who misses this game and Everton next week as a result of his red card against Wolves. DJ Campbell is a long term absentee with a hamstring injury, and it doesn’t seem as though Heider Helguson is any closer to making a comeback either.
Fulham on the other hand have a relatively clean bill of health. Andy Johnson, who scored three times against QPR earlier this season, and centre back Philippe Senderos have both recovered from groin injuries and are fit to start. Johnson could well partner new Russian signing Pavel Pogrebnyak who scored on his debut against Stoke last time out but was later stretchered off. He is fit to take part this weekend.
Elsewhere: The game that absolutely dominates this weekend’s fixture list is the North London derby between Arsenal and Spurs on Sunday lunchtime. It doesn’t take much for the word ‘crisis’ to be bandied around in modern football but Arsenal certainly seem to be fast approaching one, if they’re not there already. Out of the FA Cup, all but out of the Champions League, and only being kept in the top four by the similar incompetence of Chelsea they go into this match ten points behind their bitter rivals in third. A win for Spurs would surely sew up their participation in the Champions League next season, and push Arsene Wenger a little closer to the exit door which he seems certain to wonder through in the summer regardless.
At the very top Man City should be confident of a three point haul from a Saturday tea time home match with Blackburn, Man Utd perhaps less so as they face a tricky trip to Carrow Road to face Norwich on Sunday lunchtime. Liverpool sit out this weekend to prepare for Sunday’s Carling Cup final with Championship side Cardiff.
At the bottom Wolves’ frantic search for a new manager doesn’t look like bearing fruit before their Saturday trip to Newcastle, Wigan need points at home to out of form Aston Villa. Sunderland can move into the top eight if they win, as everybody else has done this season, at The Hawthorns against West Brom while Stoke must snap a four game losing run, and overcome the European hangover problems they suffered in the first half of the season, if they’re to win the contrast of styles with Swansea on Sunday.
Referee: Football does have a habit of throwing up some strange coincidences sometimes. QPR haven’t met Fulham competitively at Loftus Road for 11 years, but do so this weekend with the same referee in charge who took that match – Phil Dowd from Staffordshire. Fulham were on their way to the Premiership for the first time back in 2001 and won easily 2-0 against a soon to be relegated QPR side who lost promising youngsters Clarke Carlisle and Richard Langley to cruciate knee ligament ruptures within ten minutes of each other that night. Dowd is probably best remembered by QPR fans for a mystifying series of decisions that saw a 2-0 win at Leicester turned into a 1-0 defeat thanks to two incorrectly disallowed goals and a harsh penalty award. This season he has refereed our home games with Newcastle and MK Dons. For a full case file please click here.
QPR: Well here we have the battle of the team with only two home league wins against the team with only one away win. QPR, since the end of November, have been bloody crap. Up to that point Rangers’ record was four wins and three draws from 13 matches which, had it carried on, would have seen them finish the season with 45 points which is comfortable survival and probably even more than that besides. Since the start of December the record is one win and three draws from 12 games which if replicated over the course of a season would result in an 18 point haul and certain relegation. Three away wins is respectable (Norwich and Burnley were both previously relegated with none) but two home wins is abysmal and QPR have blown 15 points from winning positions this season into the bargain. Twice in the past four home league games they’ve had men sent off while leading 1-0 and lost 2-1. Rangers are now 16 matches without a clean sheet.
Fulham: Mark Hughes has only lost one of seven games against teams he used to manage and both he and Martin Jol have been engaging in dick swinging exercises today over the sixe of their respective clubs, reputations and records. Rumour has it Mark Hughes’ dad could have Martin Jol’s dad as well. Fulham’s away form is dismal but they have lost just three of their last ten after a slow, Europa League beset, start to the Premiership season. Fulham haven’t conceded a goal to QPR in five meetings.
Betting: Professional odds compiler Owen Goulding tells us…
QPR have now entered the 'must get something from this game' portion of the season and they resume after the FA Cup break against local rivals Fulham looking for revenge for the 6-0 drubbing back in October. So much has changed since then and I expect so much to change now. I think it will be close, the market reflects this with most bookies unable to separate them. QPR have won only two home games all season, Fulham have only won one game away all season. Fulham are the Premierships example to the classic question 'why can’t they perform like they do at home whilst on their travels'? They have scored less goals away from home than any other team - in fact QPR have actually scored double the amount of away goals as Fulham this season. I can’t help thinking that the constant barrage of Fulham fans claiming they were right to get rid of Zamora in January could come back to haunt them. I think it will be nervy, nail-biting and not pretty. I am also getting tired of referee decisions scuppering any chances of recommended bets winning, so I am a bit loath to make such a prediction, but I recommend a bet on Zamora to score at anytime during the match at a definitely overpriced 21/10 with Spreadex.
Prediction: My gut feeling is for QPR to take a first half lead, then do something stupid, and end up with a point at most. But, in the interests of not jinxing things, the prediction remain cancelled for now.
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