| Interesting Trust Email 20:09 - Jun 29 with 138846 views | Neath_Jack |
Regarding the options open to us.
It's going to cause some massive debate on here i reckon  |  |
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| Interesting Trust Email on 11:20 - Jul 2 with 1974 views | harryhpalmer |
| Interesting Trust Email on 08:45 - Jul 2 by Uxbridge |
They don't want to buy the Trust out. I can say that with total certainty.
This isn't the first offer on the table. |
Are we likely to see the offers the Trust has been made and rejected to date?
That way the doubters can see the work done by "our" negotiators, and be more sure that the Americans won't budge any further.
And what is being put in place for people to ask questions - and this being visible, as Lisa has with the drag clause stuff, and and the answers being added to the Pros/Cons/FAQs.
When I ask for these Qs to be visible, this is because she has raised several points - the holding company the Americans use for their ownership vehicle - that I'd not twigged on. |  |
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| Interesting Trust Email on 11:24 - Jul 2 with 1948 views | harryhpalmer |
| Interesting Trust Email on 08:48 - Jul 2 by monmouth |
I doubt it will ever go to court either way. The yanks will have taken very expensive advice from the best legal specialists they can find before deciding that they have to give any ground. They don't want to give the Trust a penny. They have been advised to deal, and they are trying to get away with the minimum. Drag rights? No dilution protection? Righty-oh then, let's go to court boys.
They will settle and blink first. If they don't, f*ck them anyway, let's roll the dice for the full 21m. My bet would be they will NEVER take the risk of that, but if they do, so be it.
Or in the words of the bard, Oh mush, f*ck off, who do you think you are.
That deal on the table is, in my humble opinion, dogshit. [Post edited 2 Jul 2017 8:49]
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They will, like the Trust, have been given advice that the Trust has a very good case, and so to negotiate a deal.
However, it won't be make a deal at all costs. They will also know - and they have big resources to take the best advice - they it is not guaranteed, and will hedge that nuclear is not good for either party.
Hard to say, not having being involved in the negotiations how far they will go - if we vote legal, will they come back with a counter offer? These are ruthless businessmen. Hard to call. | |
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| Interesting Trust Email on 11:27 - Jul 2 with 1931 views | Nookiejack |
| Interesting Trust Email on 00:00 - Jul 2 by Uxbridge |
I need some sleep, but as I'm in the mood tonight I'll just post one final thing.
I've talked earlier about the duties of the Trust board to ensure that all the information is out there for the members to be able to judge this on its merits.
However that duty also falls onto the members too. This is a truly momentous decision which will shape the future of the Trust and will have fundamental effects on the club, and quite probably what happens on the pitch. Know the options, know the potential risks and rewards of each potential option. Understand how your vote affects things. To those 1800 or so, I wish them well. |
You have mentioned below know the risks but what you haven't mentioned is estimated probabilities of the outcome.
You are prepared to gamble difference between
1. £21m and £5m = £16m for:-
2. potential £30m to £40m in the future. (Although don't know when you would ever sell as you you always want a say).
The thing is what % chance do you think 1. we will be relegated (club could go on a downward spiral - the Yanks could sell their stake and the Drag Rights could be called on) verses 2. what p% chance do you think the club will continue to stay in the PL and the TV Rights will exponentially keep increasing to increase the value to £30m to £40m.
Do you think it is 50% : 50%?
Look where we finished last season? Siggy could be sold taking all the goals and assists away? Or he could stay and pick up a long term injury. We have been slipping down the PL over last few seaaons - maybe like Villa, Newcastle did over a few seasons. I don't think that is necessarily because of bad decisions - rather it is difficult for a club of our size to defy gravity.
I would think it is 90% to go down within next 5 seasons and only 10% to stay up with TV Rights exponentially increasing. | | | |
| Interesting Trust Email on 11:31 - Jul 2 with 1924 views | harryhpalmer |
| Interesting Trust Email on 09:20 - Jul 2 by Uxbridge |
Of course they don't want to go to court. People seem to think it's because they'd lose, but I'd think the upheaval is as likely a reason. It's an offer to keep the peace as much as anything I'd wager.
The Trust have done little but assess offers and discuss what it could and couldn't accept. I don't think not understanding the offer is a factor here. |
I agree.
Who is going to want to sponsor or commercially want to get involved with a club - or players come or stay, if the fans end up in a litigation war with the owners.
we saw how toxic it got last December especially. It needs to be avoided or we will definitely get relegated, then the fun will start, as we have little reserves, and the wages /revenue ratio is obscene! | |
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| Interesting Trust Email on 11:42 - Jul 2 with 1885 views | Starsky |
| Interesting Trust Email on 05:29 - Jul 2 by NOTRAC |
There is a general attitude on this thread towards litigation,despite the fact that all those who represent us on the Trust Board are in favour of accepting the deal under offer.That,I believe is sad as it virtually represents a no confidence vote in those representatives.
It is worth looking again at the Trust's aims
To maintain a professional football club in Swansea
To bring the football club closer to the local community
To have elected representation on the Board of Swansea City Football Club
To maintain and increase a stake in the club in pursuance of the above aims
To represent the needs and aims of our members at all times
The aims represent a mix of what the Trust represents,a supporters Trust and a shareholders Trust.
If the Trust goes down the path of litigation it virtually means giving up its position as a shareholders Trust as if we win the shares will be sold,if we lose the shares will be virtually worthless.
Either way the aim of having elected board representation will disappear as will the aim of maintaining and increasing a stake in the club.
It will mean that as far as having any say in the running of the club,the Trust would be out in the wilderness. The only hope for future control would be through a virtual disaster situation which let's hope will never happen
Voting therefore for litigation not only is in reality a vote of no confidence in the people representing us on the Trust's Board, but could also destroy the Trust's influence in the running of the club forevever.It would also result in the complete loss of two of the Trusts main aims.
What is on the table is I believe in the circumstances is a pretty good offer.
£5m is a substantial amount and this should rise to £11m with continued success. The retention of at least ten per cent shares puts us in no different position as far as a say in the Club is concerned as does our present holding of 22per cent.
Yes it does depend on the future goodwill of our present owners, but was has been done in that respect cannot be altered.
It is in everyone's interest for Swansea City to continue successfully in the Premiership.
Litigation as far as the Trust is concerned would almost mean the opposite. |
Really frustrating to read a post like this.
"Vote for litigation is a vote against the Trust"
Phuck my eyes! |  |
| It's just the internet, init. |
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| Interesting Trust Email on 11:45 - Jul 2 with 1879 views | harryhpalmer |
| Interesting Trust Email on 10:20 - Jul 2 by MyFinalHeaven |
"Simplistically, I think the Americans came to value the Trust's input last season after possibly being told initially that the trust were insignificant -"
Nonsense. The Americans aren't stupid, and neither is anyone with common sense. In what world would someone regard a 21% stakeholder as "insignificant?" They knew exactly what they were doing. The trust has and will always be seen as a hassle and a burden to the Americans towards gaining full control and making the most money. They've made it loud and clear with their actions. |
not just a hassle on the Americans. One on the old Board too - hence why they did the deal the way they did it! | |
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| Interesting Trust Email on 12:22 - Jul 2 with 1803 views | NOTRAC |
| Interesting Trust Email on 11:42 - Jul 2 by Starsky |
Really frustrating to read a post like this.
"Vote for litigation is a vote against the Trust"
Phuck my eyes! |
That is my opinion? Even with success the Trust would have a lot of money but no shares and a greatly reduced influence. If litigation failed ,the Trust would struggle to exist. | |
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| Interesting Trust Email on 12:23 - Jul 2 with 1800 views | BLAZE |
| Interesting Trust Email on 22:06 - Jul 1 by Uxbridge |
You want an actual example of a case somebody thought they would win but actually didn't? Pop down to court, it happens every day. There is a massive difference between strong and guaranteed.
It is a very real possibility the Trust could lose a case. We don't think it's the likely course of events, based on our legal advice, but it's not so unlikely that we can dismiss it as irrelevant. Why do you think our QC advocated that litigation was the last course of action? |
Why do you think our QC advocated that litigation was the last course of action?
As declared by the trust, the current offer is the result of much bargaining back and forth. The trust have also declared their belief that the current offer is likely the best offer the Americans will make. Yet, in many people's opinion, that offer is still considerd underwhelming.
To me, it appears we're at the 'last course of action' stage that the QC referred too. That last course of action is litigation. |  | | |
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| Interesting Trust Email on 12:36 - Jul 2 with 1771 views | BLAZE |
| Interesting Trust Email on 22:36 - Jul 1 by Uxbridge |
Well you say that, but I was in a room with 100 fans on Thursday and nobody there was advocating legal action. Many were absolutely terrified that the vote could go that way. Be careful when you say someone is out of touch.. There are fans who agree with you. A fair amount I wager.
I understand the anger. Phils a better man than I for being able to get in a room with them as often as he has. I couldn't have stomached it. However, I've asked myself two questions. What's best for the Trust, and what's best for the club. In this case, I think the offer is the best course. |
Well you say that, but I was in a room with 100 fans on Thursday and nobody there was advocating legal action. Many were absolutely terrified that the vote could go that way
Eh? And you're surprised by that? They'd just been presented with a statement worded to guide them in a very obvious direction. Thoughts have had time to settle since and it looks to be anything but the clear cut outcome you saw Thursday night. | | | |
| Interesting Trust Email on 12:44 - Jul 2 with 1752 views | BLAZE |
| Interesting Trust Email on 22:45 - Jul 1 by Uxbridge |
How do you think court cases work? Both sides will present their arguments, and a judge will decide which one is right. Our legal advice is that we've got a strong case. You ask anyone involved in the legal profession if theres such a thing as a guaranteed case, especially one such as this, and they'd laugh. Losing is actually possible.
I'm really not scaremongering. The members need to know the pros and cons, risks and rewards on offer in all scenarios. Ignoring the possibility of legal action going wrong would be the thing that is actually wrong. |
I'm really not scaremongering. The members need to know the pros and cons, risks and rewards on offer in all scenarios.
Except the pros and rewards of litigation are getting anything but a fair airing from the Trust. As I mentioned above, a very one sided argument is being put forward IMO. | | | |
| Interesting Trust Email on 12:51 - Jul 2 with 1734 views | swancity |
| Interesting Trust Email on 12:44 - Jul 2 by BLAZE |
I'm really not scaremongering. The members need to know the pros and cons, risks and rewards on offer in all scenarios.
Except the pros and rewards of litigation are getting anything but a fair airing from the Trust. As I mentioned above, a very one sided argument is being put forward IMO. |
Exactly and what's so galling is that they won't accept anything to the contrary. It's as though they have made up their minds and are now trying to convince everyone to go along with it. Instead they should be putting forward a fully balanced view for now with further recommendations at a much later date. A blind man can see the huge benefits of the legal route...
I've decided that the Trust are now history for me. It's absolutely worthless in its present guise and with this approach. | |
| Only an idiot would eat a turkey curry on Christmas day |
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| Interesting Trust Email on 12:57 - Jul 2 with 1718 views | Nookiejack |
| Interesting Trust Email on 05:29 - Jul 2 by NOTRAC |
There is a general attitude on this thread towards litigation,despite the fact that all those who represent us on the Trust Board are in favour of accepting the deal under offer.That,I believe is sad as it virtually represents a no confidence vote in those representatives.
It is worth looking again at the Trust's aims
To maintain a professional football club in Swansea
To bring the football club closer to the local community
To have elected representation on the Board of Swansea City Football Club
To maintain and increase a stake in the club in pursuance of the above aims
To represent the needs and aims of our members at all times
The aims represent a mix of what the Trust represents,a supporters Trust and a shareholders Trust.
If the Trust goes down the path of litigation it virtually means giving up its position as a shareholders Trust as if we win the shares will be sold,if we lose the shares will be virtually worthless.
Either way the aim of having elected board representation will disappear as will the aim of maintaining and increasing a stake in the club.
It will mean that as far as having any say in the running of the club,the Trust would be out in the wilderness. The only hope for future control would be through a virtual disaster situation which let's hope will never happen
Voting therefore for litigation not only is in reality a vote of no confidence in the people representing us on the Trust's Board, but could also destroy the Trust's influence in the running of the club forevever.It would also result in the complete loss of two of the Trusts main aims.
What is on the table is I believe in the circumstances is a pretty good offer.
£5m is a substantial amount and this should rise to £11m with continued success. The retention of at least ten per cent shares puts us in no different position as far as a say in the Club is concerned as does our present holding of 22per cent.
Yes it does depend on the future goodwill of our present owners, but was has been done in that respect cannot be altered.
It is in everyone's interest for Swansea City to continue successfully in the Premiership.
Litigation as far as the Trust is concerned would almost mean the opposite. |
The thing is Notrac by the Trust conceding the 'drag'' rights - the Trust has given up elected representation on the Board - it is just a matter of time when this occurs.
Hopefully when the Yanks take them up and sell 100% of the club - that will be in a few years when still in the PL - as Trust should then hopefully receive current value or more.
However there is a downward spiral scenario - where Trust has to sell at a very low price.
So don't you then have to take a view of likelihood of Yanks being successful verses us being relegated?
What do you estimate % range of the being successful verses % range of them not being.
My estimate of range within next 5 years is:-
Success 0% to 20% (maintaing PL status next 5 years and TV Rights exponentially increasing)
Relegation 80% to 100% | | | |
| Interesting Trust Email on 13:05 - Jul 2 with 1706 views | BLAZE |
Im going to put this out there too, because I got nothing to hide. Uxbridge has already made a passing glance at it, so it's only a matter of time before the mud slinging begins
I am not current a trust member. I have my reasons.
But this decision affects my club. Damn right I'm gonna get involved with the discussion on an open forum. Current trust member or not. [Post edited 2 Jul 2017 13:23]
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| Interesting Trust Email on 13:14 - Jul 2 with 1689 views | Dewi1jack |
If a few key areas of our team are not addressed and if 2 or 3 of the starting 11 from last season move on (Siggy, Nando etc) then we will pay the price for poor recruitment by our wannabe scout/ font of all football knowledge and be relegated.
No extra money for the Trust through a share sale then.
Not much value in the shares if the Yanks cut and run in a break even sale to a mad Italian or worse.
In fact if they use their drag rights, the Trust can't even stop the sale of their shares.
Still no voice that is listened to and acted upon.
This appears to be a far worse deal than the slimy, snide, sneaky b'stards got.
Plus, no-one still knows who the money men behind Kaplan and Levein are. They could be very different in their approach to us
"Ok, take the hit of a few million and sell it to that b'stard who got Blackpool or Leeds!!" |  |
| If you wake up breathing, thats a good start to your day and you'll make many thousands of people envious. |
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| Interesting Trust Email on 13:24 - Jul 2 with 1672 views | NOTRAC |
| Interesting Trust Email on 12:57 - Jul 2 by Nookiejack |
The thing is Notrac by the Trust conceding the 'drag'' rights - the Trust has given up elected representation on the Board - it is just a matter of time when this occurs.
Hopefully when the Yanks take them up and sell 100% of the club - that will be in a few years when still in the PL - as Trust should then hopefully receive current value or more.
However there is a downward spiral scenario - where Trust has to sell at a very low price.
So don't you then have to take a view of likelihood of Yanks being successful verses us being relegated?
What do you estimate % range of the being successful verses % range of them not being.
My estimate of range within next 5 years is:-
Success 0% to 20% (maintaing PL status next 5 years and TV Rights exponentially increasing)
Relegation 80% to 100% |
I think your estimate of success is pessimistic to say the least.
At the end of the day surely we are all hoping for success.The Americans benefit from it ,the Trust benefits from it, and we the supporters benefit from it.
Success for the Americans will culminate in selling their majority share for substantial gain.
Whether we have representation on the Board of the football club or not will not influence their decision regarding that at all.
The amount of money thsat the Trust has in the bank is irrelevent unless we as a club spiral downwards.
I would prefer to be positive .To go to litigation at the best gives us money that cannot be spent unless a catastrophe occurs.,and at the worst means that the Trust loses everything. [Post edited 2 Jul 2017 13:26]
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| Interesting Trust Email on 13:37 - Jul 2 with 1649 views | Smellyplumz |
Look, the trust goes to court we get the money for theshares for 20mill then invest the lot to build it up to 150mill + then buy the club back... Simple. |  |
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""Although I cannot promise or predict the future, I can guarantee one thing - the current board of directors will always fight, as we have done over the last 12 years, to work together as one with the Supporters Trust to make 100% sure that Swansea City football club remains the number one priority in all our thoughts and in every decision we make." | | Poll: | Huw Jenkins |
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| Interesting Trust Email on 13:38 - Jul 2 with 1650 views | Starsky |
| Interesting Trust Email on 12:22 - Jul 2 by NOTRAC |
That is my opinion? Even with success the Trust would have a lot of money but no shares and a greatly reduced influence. If litigation failed ,the Trust would struggle to exist. |
It may have been your opinion but you made it so devisive.
"A vote of no confidence in the Trust"
So accepting the deal is unanimous with the trust already is it? | |
| It's just the internet, init. |
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| Interesting Trust Email on 13:41 - Jul 2 with 1646 views | Pokerface |
| Interesting Trust Email on 13:24 - Jul 2 by NOTRAC |
I think your estimate of success is pessimistic to say the least.
At the end of the day surely we are all hoping for success.The Americans benefit from it ,the Trust benefits from it, and we the supporters benefit from it.
Success for the Americans will culminate in selling their majority share for substantial gain.
Whether we have representation on the Board of the football club or not will not influence their decision regarding that at all.
The amount of money thsat the Trust has in the bank is irrelevent unless we as a club spiral downwards.
I would prefer to be positive .To go to litigation at the best gives us money that cannot be spent unless a catastrophe occurs.,and at the worst means that the Trust loses everything. [Post edited 2 Jul 2017 13:26]
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Got to disagree with the following -
"To go to litigation at the best gives us money that cannot be spent unless a catastrophe occurs.,and at the worst means that the Trust loses everything".
That is not the best result of litigation and how would the Trust lose everything ? | |
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| Interesting Trust Email on 13:45 - Jul 2 with 1638 views | NOTRAC |
| Interesting Trust Email on 13:41 - Jul 2 by Pokerface |
Got to disagree with the following -
"To go to litigation at the best gives us money that cannot be spent unless a catastrophe occurs.,and at the worst means that the Trust loses everything".
That is not the best result of litigation and how would the Trust lose everything ? |
Massive question then.What would you spend the £22m on? | |
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| Interesting Trust Email on 13:53 - Jul 2 with 1620 views | Pokerface |
| Interesting Trust Email on 13:45 - Jul 2 by NOTRAC |
Massive question then.What would you spend the £22m on? |
You forgot to answer the question I asked. | |
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| Interesting Trust Email on 13:55 - Jul 2 with 1612 views | longlostjack |
| Interesting Trust Email on 11:08 - Jul 2 by Starsky |
Ux, I apologise for my remarks on my previous address. It was uncalled for, Sorry.
My final word on this. I feel that the Trust winning litigation and armed with a £21million war chest for when it's time to step in again is a better bet than taking the deal and being subjected to the whims of the Americans and anyone they sell the club to.
The £6 million isn't enough to do anything with... except helping with expansion which has already been mooted. Taking the deal may keep the trust in board meetings but little more than an observing capacity. Once the threat of litigation is over, the trust will be vulnerable. |
I agree and will be voting for litigation. |  |
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| Interesting Trust Email on 13:56 - Jul 2 with 1608 views | max936 |
| Interesting Trust Email on 09:12 - Jul 2 by exiledclaseboy |
So the owners made an offer at the eleventh hour and the Trust (understandably) hasn't had proper time to consider and see if we can elicit a counter offer. That would indicate that the owners don't want to end up in court. Seems to me that there's scope for further negotiation resulting in a potentially more attractive offer from the owners. |
Bang on, push them harder for me they're not squirming enough yet, more money and more say in the running of the club and more protection for the Fans Trust, the money side of it is important, but I'd settle for a say that'll matter on "ALL" issues and maintain our 21% share holding, One issue for me would be to wean out Jenkins influence and Dineenes and stop JVZ's commercial enterprise running on the backs of Swansea City FC, I'm sure the club could take over that, from which the Club would benefit financially from and not fecking JVZ who has had more than enough out of the Swans. |  |
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| Interesting Trust Email on 13:59 - Jul 2 with 1598 views | harryhpalmer |
| Interesting Trust Email on 13:56 - Jul 2 by max936 |
Bang on, push them harder for me they're not squirming enough yet, more money and more say in the running of the club and more protection for the Fans Trust, the money side of it is important, but I'd settle for a say that'll matter on "ALL" issues and maintain our 21% share holding, One issue for me would be to wean out Jenkins influence and Dineenes and stop JVZ's commercial enterprise running on the backs of Swansea City FC, I'm sure the club could take over that, from which the Club would benefit financially from and not fecking JVZ who has had more than enough out of the Swans. |
They are not going to give us more of a say than we had under the last regime.
Which as we didn't have 25% ... | |
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| Interesting Trust Email on 14:01 - Jul 2 with 1595 views | NOTRAC |
| Interesting Trust Email on 13:53 - Jul 2 by Pokerface |
You forgot to answer the question I asked. |
The answer is that if the Trust won the shares would be replaced with cash.As far as I am aware the purpose of that cash would be to rescue the club if needs arose. If we were in such a position that would be a catastrophe having regard to where the club is at present.
If we lost our present funds would be greatly reduced by court costs.Our shares would be of little or no value as their value as a bargaining instrument would have been exposed. | |
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| Interesting Trust Email on 14:11 - Jul 2 with 1565 views | Nookiejack |
| Interesting Trust Email on 13:24 - Jul 2 by NOTRAC |
I think your estimate of success is pessimistic to say the least.
At the end of the day surely we are all hoping for success.The Americans benefit from it ,the Trust benefits from it, and we the supporters benefit from it.
Success for the Americans will culminate in selling their majority share for substantial gain.
Whether we have representation on the Board of the football club or not will not influence their decision regarding that at all.
The amount of money thsat the Trust has in the bank is irrelevent unless we as a club spiral downwards.
I would prefer to be positive .To go to litigation at the best gives us money that cannot be spent unless a catastrophe occurs.,and at the worst means that the Trust loses everything. [Post edited 2 Jul 2017 13:26]
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Yes I totally 'hope' for success.
But being objective as a starting point look at our finishing league position last season with potential sales of Siggy and Llorente (so we lose all our golas and assists).
Relegation next season will be out of:-
Huddersfield
Brighton
Newcastle
Us
Burnley
Watford
Bournemouth
3 out of 7 chance. (42% chance of relegation next season (the bookies are quoting a 2/1 chance ( 33% chance)) but that is for next season - what about for the next 5 seasons.
Bournemouth have just made £40m of investment in Defoe and Ake - an it wouldn't surprise me if they invested more with their rich owner. So are likely to keep ahead of us.
Maybe Paul Clement will be even better next season but then you still can't take away random factors - such as a string of injuries to best players.
I think therefore from an objective point of view -one does need to assess probability range of each outcome.
Taking into your account your point that going down the litigation route does not guarantee success in court and Trust would then be in a weak position. (Really don't think though a judge would leave a minority shareholder without any minority protections - unable to ever sell their shares under the new articles). | | | |
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