Southampton FC have been known for their Black Box system that helps identify future transfer targets well in advance and this has enabled them to replace star names when they have moved on to so called bigger clubs, they are already planning for this summer.

The arrival of Sport Republic as owners of Southampton FC has not brought multi billion investment into St Mary's, but it has added something and the ability to fine tune our established transfer policy not just in terms of efficiency, but also to a degree financially.

The club are already looking at the squad for next season, they know they are top heavy in some areas and they will be looking to address this, but they also know they must be prepared for incoming bids for players that they want to keep.

At this moment in time, the Saints player most linked with a move to a bigger club is of course James Ward Prowse and the club signed him up to a new 5 year deal only last August meaning that he is tied in till July 2026 when he will be 31.

However despite the fact he has signed a new deal that doesn't mean he will see it through, at some stage either he or the club itself might wish to part company.

From a James Ward Prowse perspective he has been a great servant to Southampton Football Club, he has been a first team regular now for 10 seasons and has blossomed into a truly International class player.

This has led to him being linked to clubs of a higher stature than Saints, at the moment he seems perfectly happy to stay at St Mary's, unlike Danny Ings who on finding that none of the truly big clubs wanted him, jumped ship to Aston Villa for money, sorry I meant to say for the project, JWP seems level headed, like any professional he would want to play at the highest level and challenge for honours, but that doesn't mean playing for any old club who waves enough money at him.

After the disappointment of not going to last years Euro's he has got his head down and forced his way back into Gareth Southgate's plans again, unlike Ings whose career has dropped off since his move to Villa Park.

So we have to be prepared for the fact that firstly someone big will come in for Ward Prowse and secondly turning 28 in November he might consider this is his last chance at the big time and want to take that opportunity.

Should he do so then no Saints fan should begrudge him that, he has given us 10 years great service and we should wish him well, even if it was Liverpool he joined.

But it is not a one sided thing, what Sport Republic have brought to the table is as I say a fine tuning of our transfer policy, they employ what is known as the Moneyball Approach, a system devised in the USA in Baseball.

In simple terms this says that you know the worth of every player in your squad, that every player will eventually leave the club, the trick is when they do so.

As was shown at Brentford Rasmus Ankersen was not afraid to lose his best players, when the transfer fee offered exceeded their worth to the team he would sell and then repeat the process.

Some might not like this, but this is the way Saints will move forward, some will moan that we are a selling club, but that is far from the truth, we are a club that has a strategy and have to work that strategy, Leicester City hung on to Jamie Vardy, their problem is that now they have not got the money to replace him.

The trick for Saints is avoiding that situation, in hindsight although we wanted to keep Danny Ings, it was actually good business to let him got for £30 million, we replaced him not with one player but two in Adam Armstrong and Armando Broja on loan and still have £15 million in the bank.

Armstrong has not yet been a success, but he has not been a disaster either and between then both he and Broja have scored 8 goals in the Premier League this season, they need to get 4 more between them to equal Ings total from last season.

Saints will already be looking at several scenarios for the midfield for next season and high on their agenda is what they do if Ward Prowse stays and also if he leaves.

With that in mind they will have already identified who will replace him if he does go and if he does then they will have big money, potentially £40-50 million to spend.

But they won't be looking at spending that on one player, they will be looking for value, not just from up and coming players but also from those with experience in the Premier League, a good example of that is Oriol Romeu who surely has to be one of the best signings we have made from another Premier League club when you take into account the money he cost £5 million and the service he has given 207 Premier League games to date.

Back to Moneyball here, if an offer for Ward Prowse far exceeds his value to the side, then sell and then look for value.

One player now being linked is Harry Winks of Tottenham Hotspur, he has fallen out of favour in North London and at 26 could be available for as little at £16 million as Spurs themselves trim their squad.

Moneyball is about stats not show, hence Winks could leave for a good price whereas Dele Alli went for £40m million including all add ons.

I can hear some sneer and say Winks is not fit to lace Ward Prowse's boots, perhaps not but as a defensive midfield player he is good value and would potentially be an ideal replacement.

It would also make financial sense in that we could rake in £50 million and still have around £34 million left to improve the squad in other areas.

So as transfer rumours start to circulate, we should not be afraid of losing players, it is never ever going to be about what we have just done, it is always going to be about what we do next.

For the past 10 years or so we have in the main got things right, we have sold players for big fee's and replaced them well, the only blip being back in 2017-18 when we bought badly.

This summer is going to see a lot of ins and outs at St Mary's we should embrace that, not be afraid.

Photo: Action Images

andywelsh added 11:35 - Mar 28 It appears Ward Prowse is a bit of a marmite player to supporters, you either love him or hate him. He undoubtedly is a brilliant dead ball specialist and has an incredible engine. He also rarely gives the ball away. On the down side he lacks pace and can sometimes appear to lack urgency and invention, instead preferring patient build up. Personally I have always believed him to be the rock in the centre of the field, playing a role similar to Alan Ball. I hope he stays but if he goes for around 50 million I think it might be sound business. Of course the usual suspects will immediately say we lack ambition but in fairness many of those have often been less than complimentary about some of his performances. Nick is right in that the philosophy of the manager and the club is that no one is irreplaceable and different players will inevitably bring new challenges and benefits as the team hopefully evolves.

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dirk_doone added 12:56 - Mar 28 I really hope we don't sign Harry Winks. Spurs' fans think he is the worst player in their squad and will be glad to get rid of him. If Ward-Prowse is sold, he should be replaced by someone at least as good as him, like Ruslan Malinovskyi.
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SanMarco added 16:16 - Mar 28 "Moneyball is about stats not show" I am reminded of the quote attributed (perhaps wrongly) to Disraeli: "There are lies, damned lies and statistics". Stats can, of course, be useful - just in the way that computers and economic models can be but it is dangerous to run our lives by them. Does 'Moneyball' really mean much more than buy cheap and sell dear? By ignoring many other psychological and unpredictable factors it really just seems like a soul-less spreadsheet - the kind of thing that produced the budget the other day. We don't need fancy metrics to know that JWP might well go in the summer - we all know it, full stop. Let's just try to keep our best players and if we have to sell them get a good price and buy as high-quality replacements as we can. We don't need clever metrics and spreadsheets to tell us that.

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IanRC added 17:30 - Mar 28 Incidentally, when do Spurs have to repay their COVID loan, used to pay Bale etc. Wonder if they will be deducted 10 points if they default, not holding my breath knowing the Fa’s integrity.
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I_would added 18:00 - Mar 28 If we sell Prowsey we'll miss that one goal from open play per season.
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underweststand added 18:15 - Mar 28 IF ...Prowsey were to move, I for one wouldn't be upset, he's done his bit and a lot more for Saints and been a "fixture" at the club for near on 20 years since a boy and deserves the best he can get for the remainder of his career. IF.. he gets a World Cup place and does well, a move away might be on the cards, BUT his " absence " would mean a total re-think of our midfield. JWP, Romeu and Stuart Armstrong have been the mainstay of the MF for several years, but we will need to look for eventual long-term replacements - in a year or two. At present, I don't see Smallbone, or Diallo becoming instant replacements, although I do think Livramento would be more effective in a more advanced MF role, as KWP is obviously the more effective RB . (Nor do I think the media " hints" about Harry Winks as a possible replacements would go down well with most of Saints fans). IF.. everything stays the same next season, we will only be pushing the problem further into the future, and to a point in time when (perhaps) Ralph may not still be at the club.

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highfield49 added 10:13 - Mar 29 One absolute certainty about JWP is that he is no longer going to be able to improve his game, what we're seeing now is the best he's going to be. As much as I'm a huge fan of his dedication and attitude the club is tied to him as the hub of the team and that is restrictive going forward, literally. He wants to get into the World Cup squad, understandably, so cashing in to give him a better chance works both ways. Personally I'd find it quite ironically amusing if he went to Liverpool and ousted Henderson from the England squad, seeing as the half fit Henderson kept him out of the Euros.

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halftimeorange added 17:43 - Mar 29 "Armstrong has not yet been a success, but he has not been a disaster either" - true, he's been invisible and, unlike the soon to depart Broja, he doesn't scare defenders, they just bundle him off the ball. As for JWP, he does frighten defenders and goalkeepers and, unlike Henderson, the skills he does possess would only enhance the England team, if only Harry Kane wasn't designated to take every free kick. We simply can't afford to lose the few "stars" we have.

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dirk_doone added 12:50 - Mar 30 Ward-Prowse is constantly working on improving his game. Thie year he has been developing his long range shooting from open play and I expect to seemhim get better still at it in the future.
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KilkennySaint added 16:03 - Mar 31 Good article summing up how we can survive in this league, our owners don't have billions, so selling high / buying low is probably a solid approach. Yes, it’s frustrating and sends out the image of a selling club and lack of ambition. Unfortunately, this world of football is heavily controlled by player & agent power so when players want to move on its hard to win the battle to keep them (Lallana, Lovern, Van Dyke), cash in and reinvest can be the best of a bad situation. Have many players really advanced in their careers after they leave us ? Must disagree on the only blip being back in 2017-18, I would say it was over a 3-4 seasons, what we did learn from this period is how paramount the recruitment will have to be going forward with black box system.

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