| The Pound 13:57 - Sep 24 with 100050 views | Stanmiguel |
Well, the money markets didn't like the mini budget.
I met Liz Truss in a hotel in Monmouth a few years ago.
She said her solution to pensioner poverty would be to feed them on Pedigree Chum.
Not only would this save a lot of money, it would give them shiny coats and a nice cold nose. |  | | |  |
| The Pound on 17:57 - Sep 29 with 2336 views | colinallcars |
Kwarteng told his fellow Tory MPs this afternoon, “we're all one team”
Yeah, Derby County mate. |  | | |
| The Pound on 18:28 - Sep 29 with 2277 views | ParkRoyalR |
| The Pound on 14:03 - Sep 29 by Benny_the_Ball |
Not true in this case. The BoE has increased interest rates to combat rising inflation. This has been caused by a steep rise in global prices, particularly food, wholesale gas and oil. The rise in prices was predominantly brought about by the pandemic and Ukraine war. Whilst I agree that Truss' mini-budget is not the answer, it's not the reason why the global economy is spluttering. If the left wants someone to blame, then I suggest it looks in the direction of China and Russia. [Post edited 29 Sep 2022 14:07]
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Truss's mini-budget is the reason the markets have lost confidence in the competence of the UK government and our economy, leading to a likely down-grading of the UK's credit rating and a corresponding increase in the interest on the UK's debt which is predicted to cost £100bn a year, plus a weakened pound when you are buying energy in dollars, something all predicted by Sunak who clearly said if you do not have a plan you can substantiate, don't do it. Project Fear Truss responded!
Unfortunately Truss thought she could bluster like Boris and throw in a few cliches about being defeatist, promoting project fear etc (which go down well with Mail readers) and she knew better than Sunak and the markets.
Perception in life is very important as can be seen above, but more so timing, and quite how Truss & Kwarteng thought now was the right time to pivot the economy and go hell-bent chasing 'growth' is beyond belief.
Still, nearly 40 thousand Tories voted for Michael Fabricant (who can't even get a syrup to fit), so 80 thousand voting for Truss is maybe not so surprising or beyond belief. | | | |
| The Pound on 19:33 - Sep 29 with 2135 views | CamberleyR |
| The Pound on 17:57 - Sep 29 by colinallcars |
Kwarteng told his fellow Tory MPs this afternoon, “we're all one team”
Yeah, Derby County mate. |
Kwasi's got the Bank of England on strings. |  |
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| The Pound on 19:53 - Sep 29 with 2085 views | Sakura |
| The Pound on 18:28 - Sep 29 by ParkRoyalR |
Truss's mini-budget is the reason the markets have lost confidence in the competence of the UK government and our economy, leading to a likely down-grading of the UK's credit rating and a corresponding increase in the interest on the UK's debt which is predicted to cost £100bn a year, plus a weakened pound when you are buying energy in dollars, something all predicted by Sunak who clearly said if you do not have a plan you can substantiate, don't do it. Project Fear Truss responded!
Unfortunately Truss thought she could bluster like Boris and throw in a few cliches about being defeatist, promoting project fear etc (which go down well with Mail readers) and she knew better than Sunak and the markets.
Perception in life is very important as can be seen above, but more so timing, and quite how Truss & Kwarteng thought now was the right time to pivot the economy and go hell-bent chasing 'growth' is beyond belief.
Still, nearly 40 thousand Tories voted for Michael Fabricant (who can't even get a syrup to fit), so 80 thousand voting for Truss is maybe not so surprising or beyond belief. |
Hey, the Top rate tax cut was £2bn
The energy bailout anticipated £130bn so 65 times more than that this year
Just so I understand those upset with Truss… you don’t want an energy bailout?
Quite funny hearing the left now complain about a Tory government borrowing to bailout the country’s poorest
Just wondering also if you think the £2.4 trillion of debt we already have is relevant or if you are just going to blame it all on someone who’s been here a fortnight. Unless you want the energy bailouts to stop this isn’t a credible position [Post edited 29 Sep 2022 19:57]
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| The Pound on 19:57 - Sep 29 with 2074 views | MedwayR |
| The Pound on 19:53 - Sep 29 by Sakura |
Hey, the Top rate tax cut was £2bn
The energy bailout anticipated £130bn so 65 times more than that this year
Just so I understand those upset with Truss… you don’t want an energy bailout?
Quite funny hearing the left now complain about a Tory government borrowing to bailout the country’s poorest
Just wondering also if you think the £2.4 trillion of debt we already have is relevant or if you are just going to blame it all on someone who’s been here a fortnight. Unless you want the energy bailouts to stop this isn’t a credible position [Post edited 29 Sep 2022 19:57]
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But the taxpayer are the ones who will pay the cost of that borrowing. So really, it's a Tory government taking from the taxpayer/poor to protect the profits of the energy companies/rich. |  |
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| The Pound on 19:59 - Sep 29 with 2041 views | Sonofpugwash |
Pound is up against the Dollar.
Still getting murdered by the Rouble. |  |
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| The Pound on 20:02 - Sep 29 with 2043 views | CiderwithRsie |
Can I come out now? | | | |
| The Pound on 20:05 - Sep 29 with 2034 views | Sakura |
| The Pound on 19:57 - Sep 29 by MedwayR |
But the taxpayer are the ones who will pay the cost of that borrowing. So really, it's a Tory government taking from the taxpayer/poor to protect the profits of the energy companies/rich. |
Can you explain what exactly you mean by that?
First looks it’s such a misinformed statement I don’t know where to start
Are you talking about price caps and what’s your plan for markets like in LNG to continue to sell to us the artificially restricted price when they can go elsewhere for example [Post edited 29 Sep 2022 20:06]
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| The Pound on 20:54 - Sep 29 with 1943 views | Hunterhoop |
| The Pound on 17:32 - Sep 29 by QPR_Jim |
Those things all contributed to inflation but the recent drop in the pound is a reaction to the latest mini-budget.
This thread has talked about borrowing all the way back to the financial crisis in 2008 but a lot of these things affect all countries. So we get some pain from the banking crisis, covid, Ukraine war but so did many other countries. That's not the case here, we've decided to increase borrowing while reducing taxes, the markets don't like it and the pound has dropped causing further inflation.
We're borrowing money to pay energy companies lets not forget while German have borrowed less to nationalise an energy company, presumably with the intention of providing cheap energy to their nation without having to pay the massive profits to the energy companies. Our plan is just to give them another bumper year of profits at the tax payers expense. |
Spot on.
I just think this economic policy is bonkers. EVEN IF Kwarteng is right, supply side economics won’t deliver the material GDP growth he’s after for 5-10 years. It has never been proven to do so.
In the meantime we borrow more money as a govt at a time of significant inflation at a macro economic level, when borrowing is becoming more expensive, to effectively give money to utility companies to post record profits (and do so next year), and provide tax breaks to the wealthy (all to drive that supply side economics growth plan in 10 years. No wonder the markets and the IMF are unsure!
It’s mad. Even if you believe in this economic ideology, which I don’t, now is not the time.
I said it a while back on here, inflation hurts the poorest the most, is the single biggest economic priority for a govt to manage (the foundations upon which you then target GDP growth with the purpose of improving living standards for your citizens). Most countries that go to the dogs do so on a tidal wave of rampant hyper inflation.
The inflation the UK has seen this year is, as Benny says, predominately down to macro factors outside the UK (Russia/Ukraine, and gas, energy, and grain costs as a result, plus elevated but decreasing freight costs). However, the UK is suffering greater inflation that the rest of Europe due to our policies and housing supply/demand Imbalance.
But this mini budget from Kwarteng just pours fuel onto the inflation fire. For what? Possible (unproven) GDP growth in 5-10 years?! It’s mad. Not least politically, because I can’t see anyone with a mortgage taken out in the last few years and expiring before the next election voting for this crowd. |  | | |
| The Pound on 21:06 - Sep 29 with 1911 views | ParkRoyalR |
| The Pound on 19:53 - Sep 29 by Sakura |
Hey, the Top rate tax cut was £2bn
The energy bailout anticipated £130bn so 65 times more than that this year
Just so I understand those upset with Truss… you don’t want an energy bailout?
Quite funny hearing the left now complain about a Tory government borrowing to bailout the country’s poorest
Just wondering also if you think the £2.4 trillion of debt we already have is relevant or if you are just going to blame it all on someone who’s been here a fortnight. Unless you want the energy bailouts to stop this isn’t a credible position [Post edited 29 Sep 2022 19:57]
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I'm not Left.
And it's not the loss of revenue generated from the top rate tax cut that's so unnerved the market, BoE, IMF etc, it's just what it says about this government, haphazard, making it up as it goes along, don't worry we'll give you the figures to back it up in November nonsense.
Any savings to household energy bills will be dwarfed by rising mortgage costs, rent, increased prices from our food retailers due to sterling being devalued etc.
Even Truss's so-called favourite economist Gerard Lyons has completely changed his rhetoric in the last few days as he realised his credibility was completely on the line too.
The top rate cut, reversal of corporation tax + NI increases were not done to help those on lower incomes and were completely unnecessary.
I'm more Right than Left but that mini budget was a fairly unprecedented act of self harm and vindicating those Conservatives who warned us Truss was inept.
If you disagree with the above fine, but worth watching Tory MP Sir Charles Walker on C4 News tonight, rightly calling Truss + Co out for their naivety and stupidity.
Bluffing 80k Tory party members is an easy gig, the mistake was rolling that b.s. out to the global investment community. | | | |
| The Pound on 21:15 - Sep 29 with 1888 views | Superhoops2808 |
I had to laugh today... Someone asked on a Sky News Q&A - Will the government help me with my mortgage like the energy crisis, and furlough...
What sort of generation have we created that think as soon as things get tough then someone will step in to help at the first sign of things getting tough  |  | | |
| The Pound on 21:20 - Sep 29 with 1868 views | Sakura |
| The Pound on 21:06 - Sep 29 by ParkRoyalR |
I'm not Left.
And it's not the loss of revenue generated from the top rate tax cut that's so unnerved the market, BoE, IMF etc, it's just what it says about this government, haphazard, making it up as it goes along, don't worry we'll give you the figures to back it up in November nonsense.
Any savings to household energy bills will be dwarfed by rising mortgage costs, rent, increased prices from our food retailers due to sterling being devalued etc.
Even Truss's so-called favourite economist Gerard Lyons has completely changed his rhetoric in the last few days as he realised his credibility was completely on the line too.
The top rate cut, reversal of corporation tax + NI increases were not done to help those on lower incomes and were completely unnecessary.
I'm more Right than Left but that mini budget was a fairly unprecedented act of self harm and vindicating those Conservatives who warned us Truss was inept.
If you disagree with the above fine, but worth watching Tory MP Sir Charles Walker on C4 News tonight, rightly calling Truss + Co out for their naivety and stupidity.
Bluffing 80k Tory party members is an easy gig, the mistake was rolling that b.s. out to the global investment community. |
Imagine you've adjusted your budget by 0.08% which is what they reduction in the top rate of tax did for the Gov budget and your going to pretend it can explain this disaster and it’s not a bigger problem than that
Test and trace cost 18 times as much at £37bn. What value did that add? Almost suspicious no one cared about that cost when it so much more significant
Can you lay out your numbers on how average mortgage bill changes will be dwarfed by energy bill changes which the government are limited as I would say your numbers there are bs
Charles Walker supported Penny Mordaunt. Her book, have a look at wrote the foreword to her book: Bill Gates
Tells you all you need to know there
And on a separate point Hunterhoop if Russia and energy are to blame for inflation then why was inflation 6% in the UK before that war started? [Post edited 29 Sep 2022 21:23]
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| The Pound on 21:55 - Sep 29 with 1777 views | GloryHunter |
They didn't teach Economics at my school. Can one of you financial wizards explain to an economic dummy like me what "growth" actually is, and why it is important? Why can't we just have zero growth, for example, and everything just tick over the same from one year to the next - why would that be bad? |  | | |
| The Pound on 22:03 - Sep 29 with 1736 views | derbyhoop |
| The Pound on 13:28 - Sep 29 by Lblock |
Yes.
Look at the wave of French who headed to London a few years back when the rates there for top earners became massive.
Totally agree on the politics - it doesn't make for good headlines |
What was the difference in tax rates for big earners (over 100k pa) between UK and France? |  |
| "Travel is fatal to prejudice, bigotry and narrow-mindedness, and many of our people need it sorely on these accounts. Broad, wholesome, charitable views of men and things cannot be acquired by vegetating in one little corner of the Earth all one's lifetime." (Mark Twain)
Find me on twitter @derbyhoop and now on Bluesky |
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| The Pound on 22:09 - Sep 29 with 1725 views | kensalriser |
| The Pound on 21:55 - Sep 29 by GloryHunter |
They didn't teach Economics at my school. Can one of you financial wizards explain to an economic dummy like me what "growth" actually is, and why it is important? Why can't we just have zero growth, for example, and everything just tick over the same from one year to the next - why would that be bad? |
OMG. You've just challenged the entire global capitalist-fossil fuel system. |  |
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| The Pound on 22:12 - Sep 29 with 1716 views | BazzaInTheLoft |
| The Pound on 21:15 - Sep 29 by Superhoops2808 |
I had to laugh today... Someone asked on a Sky News Q&A - Will the government help me with my mortgage like the energy crisis, and furlough...
What sort of generation have we created that think as soon as things get tough then someone will step in to help at the first sign of things getting tough |
Generation with cheap houses, free health, free education, telling the youth to stop asking for handouts. |  | | |
| The Pound on 22:18 - Sep 29 with 1692 views | ParkRoyalR |
| The Pound on 21:20 - Sep 29 by Sakura |
Imagine you've adjusted your budget by 0.08% which is what they reduction in the top rate of tax did for the Gov budget and your going to pretend it can explain this disaster and it’s not a bigger problem than that
Test and trace cost 18 times as much at £37bn. What value did that add? Almost suspicious no one cared about that cost when it so much more significant
Can you lay out your numbers on how average mortgage bill changes will be dwarfed by energy bill changes which the government are limited as I would say your numbers there are bs
Charles Walker supported Penny Mordaunt. Her book, have a look at wrote the foreword to her book: Bill Gates
Tells you all you need to know there
And on a separate point Hunterhoop if Russia and energy are to blame for inflation then why was inflation 6% in the UK before that war started? [Post edited 29 Sep 2022 21:23]
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Bill Gates?
Penny Mordaunt one and same close ally of Liz Truss and appointed by her as Leader of House?
Say typical mortgage value is 350k, a 2% increase to interest rates will increase annual repayment by 4k, which wipes out any energy bill discount.
The memo's being sent to government departments asking for savings and crib sheets sent to MP's today asking them to bluff this out as a global issue rather than Truss + Co shooting themselves in both feet would be laughable if things weren't so serious.
Tory MP's like Walker are furious with Truss's naivety and incompetence, could be an interesting few weeks. | | | |
| The Pound on 22:23 - Sep 29 with 1685 views | queensparker |
| The Pound on 21:55 - Sep 29 by GloryHunter |
They didn't teach Economics at my school. Can one of you financial wizards explain to an economic dummy like me what "growth" actually is, and why it is important? Why can't we just have zero growth, for example, and everything just tick over the same from one year to the next - why would that be bad? |
This.
I’ve worked in three successive profitable businesses now that banked decent money. At the start of each year if you’re not telling the board and predicting / pretending you’re going to make even more money next year, it’s a problem. And ultimately they then bring in a load of expensive arseholes with no actual experience who tell them the comforting lie that the business will keep growing, but it doesn’t, and it all falls apart.
It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to know that not everything can always grow, all the time. |  | | |
| (No subject) (n/t) on 22:23 - Sep 29 with 1684 views | queensparker |
| The Pound on 21:55 - Sep 29 by GloryHunter |
They didn't teach Economics at my school. Can one of you financial wizards explain to an economic dummy like me what "growth" actually is, and why it is important? Why can't we just have zero growth, for example, and everything just tick over the same from one year to the next - why would that be bad? |
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| The Pound on 23:12 - Sep 29 with 1578 views | BazzaInTheLoft |
| The Pound on 22:23 - Sep 29 by queensparker |
This.
I’ve worked in three successive profitable businesses now that banked decent money. At the start of each year if you’re not telling the board and predicting / pretending you’re going to make even more money next year, it’s a problem. And ultimately they then bring in a load of expensive arseholes with no actual experience who tell them the comforting lie that the business will keep growing, but it doesn’t, and it all falls apart.
It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to know that not everything can always grow, all the time. |
‘It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to know that not everything can always grow, all the time’
My missus fell for it though. | | | |
| The Pound on 23:26 - Sep 29 with 1555 views | PhilmyRs |
| The Pound on 22:12 - Sep 29 by BazzaInTheLoft |
Generation with cheap houses, free health, free education, telling the youth to stop asking for handouts. |
Not commenting on the different generations but the idea of personal responsibility, living within your means, being economical with money, does seem to be a thing of the past. Both for the population as a whole and the wider government.
People driving around in expensive motors, paid for on PCP deals. People taking out extortionate phone contracts at the point they finally own their perfectly good phone - phones themselves and what you pay for them weren’t an expense from my youth. People paying £150+ for the full shebang of sky, Netflix, Amazon etc. Pretty certain when I grew up I managed on 4, later 5 TV channels. Also, you now get companies increasingly allowing people to dip into their pension pots for a higher monthly pay — something that previously would have provided a decent retirement fund now being used for all those x-boxes, phones, car finance stuff.
Now, how you spend your money is your choice, you have every right to do as you please, and of course some people really need access to funds for daily essentials but you have to be prepared that if mortgage rates go up to historic averages (4.00%), or prices start creeping up, you need to take some personal responsibility for dealing with it. Yes, the government has a responsibility too — and it shouldn’t be to those earning over £150k IMO — but they are not the sole answer to the problem, and does feel that because of a combination of various events stretching back many years people are going to struggle to ween off this back-stop government and low interest rate economics.
We shouldn’t be a country that looks out for the richest first, which this mini budget has tried to do. We should always prioritise the most vulnerable. But, the live today, who cares about tomorrow attitude does seem more prevalent, and I do think recent governments should carry some responsibility for not addressing it, but then again ‘while the music plays’ and all that. | | | |
| The Pound on 00:23 - Sep 30 with 1463 views | connell10 |
Latest opinion poll puts Labour 33% in front of the Torys. I'm totally shocked ....I thought it would be at least 60%!! |  |
| AND WHEN I DREAM , I DREAM ABOUT YOU AND WHEN I SCREAM I SCREAM ABOUT YOU!!!!! | | Poll: | best number 10 ever? |
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| The Pound on 00:52 - Sep 30 with 1420 views | FredManRave |
It's 2022 so of course you can and all power to you for being the first openly gay poster on LFW. |  |
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| The Pound on 01:17 - Sep 30 with 1369 views | numptydumpty |
Long term planning
Politics unfortunately is about getting in at next election so whatever the theory behind the mini budget, it's irrelevant if this budget means a government is voted out.in double quick time.
I personally was staggered.
At a time of many suffering long-term limited lives during an economic downturn, policies that reduced caps,on bankers bonuses, reducing the top earners tax code bracket and threatening low earners cuts in their extra monies from benefits if getting more hours is not achieved, all this is almost arrogant laughter at the less financially well endowed amongst us.
And is such a vote loser even if in theory as an economic strategy for the long term is feasible., |  |
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| The Pound on 06:38 - Sep 30 with 1246 views | Hunterhoop |
| The Pound on 21:20 - Sep 29 by Sakura |
Imagine you've adjusted your budget by 0.08% which is what they reduction in the top rate of tax did for the Gov budget and your going to pretend it can explain this disaster and it’s not a bigger problem than that
Test and trace cost 18 times as much at £37bn. What value did that add? Almost suspicious no one cared about that cost when it so much more significant
Can you lay out your numbers on how average mortgage bill changes will be dwarfed by energy bill changes which the government are limited as I would say your numbers there are bs
Charles Walker supported Penny Mordaunt. Her book, have a look at wrote the foreword to her book: Bill Gates
Tells you all you need to know there
And on a separate point Hunterhoop if Russia and energy are to blame for inflation then why was inflation 6% in the UK before that war started? [Post edited 29 Sep 2022 21:23]
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I don’t think it was 6%, but happy for you to evidence otherwise.
And the answer, freight. Pre-pandemic, a 40HC container cost under $2k. At the turn of 2021 into 2022, pre-CNY, it was, if I recall correctly, around $15k when all extra carrier and port surcharges were considered. We’re an island that has a big export vs import deficit (on goods), so higher fright costs will cause inflation.
In my line of work you could see inflation coming from early 2021. The major carriers posted profits up 4000% vs pre-pandemic levels.
And on top of this by the start of 2022 there were already a few commodities showing significant inflation; corrugate (cardboard) was one and that is used across almost everything for packaging. Again, if I recall correctly, metals were also moving up. I’m not an expert, but most metal products are manufactured in China who were still taking a hardline on Covid so that possible drove a shortfall in supply, which, with the return of global demand in the west, pushed the price up. More demand than supply will drive inflation.
But the war in Ukraine then ramped things up another notch. It directly impacted food prices but also exacerbated the shortage of truck drivers in Europe (already 400k short by the start of 2021, so another cause of inflation pre-war). This then impacts every type of item moved by road freight.
Remember CPI/RPI are always a way behind what’s happening in the supply chain. I can’t find it, but I’m pretty sure I said on here 6 months ago, I could see inflation reaching 12% this year, not the 9% forecast by the BOE at the time which I think was then reached in May/June.
Couple of promising signs: many commodities are stabilising, freight is reducing (8k per 40HC) and gas, whilst volatile is showing signs that Ukrainian advances and success will reduce the wholesale price. Putting aside the “will he resort to nuclear weapons” conversation, it will almost certainly be good for reducing inflation and improving standard or living on the west if Putin is defeated or is brought to the negotiating table over Ukraine. All that said, in my view, western govt’s should fast tracking green energy infrastructure builds immediately, as a matter of priority to become more self sufficient, and to support the Paris Agreement targets. | | | |
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