| Ukraine 23:51 - Sep 9 with 82663 views | MrSheen |
Posted with some trepidation as I know Clive doesn’t like multis. Understandably overlooked by the national media, but it seems like the Russians are completely caving in, rope-a-doped as effectively as von Paulus in 1942. Who knows what this might lead to? |  | | |  |
| Ukraine on 08:24 - Sep 11 with 4213 views | CiderwithRsie |
| Ukraine on 22:46 - Sep 10 by GloryHunter |
Wow. Well done for getting your boy out, mate. And thanks for the insider info. |
Echo this, well done and congrats to all of you. The relief must be immense. |  | | |
| Ukraine on 08:32 - Sep 11 with 4177 views | CiderwithRsie |
| Ukraine on 16:43 - Sep 10 by slmrstid |
One thing I've read, and how true it is is of course subject to debate as I don't know, is that the Russians are very deliberately using soldiers from ethnic minorities and rural areas within the country - ie the Russian equivalent of hillbillies that the metropolitan Russia looks down upon anyway.
All being done so the sons of the middle classes in Moscow and St Petersburg are kept well out of harm, and if it comes to a point that they start getting drafted in and hurt, that's when internal pressures will really come to bite Putin.
All conjecture of course... |
It's not complete conjecture, it's fact that the Russian army is disproportionately recruited from ethnic minorities, and that the middle class evade conscription. Putin's avoidance of a general call-up probably only makes sense if you assume that people in Moscow and St Petersburg would be appalled.
But it's not that unusual. The US Army in Vietnam was disproportionately black (and the whites tended to be from poor white communities in the south); Wellington's army was largely Irish; even today the British Army has a remarkable number of Fijians in it and recruits more in "left-behind" places than in, say, Surrey.
The difference is that ethnic minorities in the Russian Federation come from specific republics which theoretically might secede if treated badly enough. | | | |
| Ukraine on 09:32 - Sep 11 with 4055 views | DaBurgh |
And of course during the Vietnam conflict there were also many 'petty criminals' who at their trial were given a choice of 5 years in prison or a stint with the army. |  | | |
| Ukraine on 10:08 - Sep 11 with 4001 views | distortR |
| Ukraine on 08:32 - Sep 11 by CiderwithRsie |
It's not complete conjecture, it's fact that the Russian army is disproportionately recruited from ethnic minorities, and that the middle class evade conscription. Putin's avoidance of a general call-up probably only makes sense if you assume that people in Moscow and St Petersburg would be appalled.
But it's not that unusual. The US Army in Vietnam was disproportionately black (and the whites tended to be from poor white communities in the south); Wellington's army was largely Irish; even today the British Army has a remarkable number of Fijians in it and recruits more in "left-behind" places than in, say, Surrey.
The difference is that ethnic minorities in the Russian Federation come from specific republics which theoretically might secede if treated badly enough. |
I read that about 30% - including the man himself - of his army were Irish?
I've seen his death mask in deal. It's a strange thing to look at, imo. | | | |
| Ukraine on 10:17 - Sep 11 with 3977 views | Juzzie |
I think Russia, well the Soviet Union, did this too in WWII. Used people from all the minor and ethnic countries to act as cannon fodder when doing the big push back of the Germans.
All these countries need to form an alliance (maybe that can act as a buffer between Russia and NATO) as it’s amazing how much schit they’ve taken for decades. However, not that easy, probably impossible, as I’m sure all the people in charge are Putins puppets so would need a multiple coups all at the same time and usually these things cause more chaos than they’re trying to avoid.
Russia in the 1700’s wasn’t that big, about the size of Central Europe. Massive land grabbing (Britain, France, etc guilty of that too but much more fragmented) made it into the giant it is today. It should probably be at leat 10-20 other countries, though most of them would be sparsely populated.
[Post edited 11 Sep 2022 10:25]
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| Ukraine on 11:08 - Sep 11 with 3911 views | MrSheen |
| Ukraine on 10:08 - Sep 11 by distortR |
I read that about 30% - including the man himself - of his army were Irish?
I've seen his death mask in deal. It's a strange thing to look at, imo. |
That 30% ratio is less surprising when you consider the populations of Britain and Ireland in 1800 - 10.5m (census) and an estimated 4.5-5.5m. The ratio is now about 9:1. | | | |
| Ukraine on 15:16 - Sep 11 with 3721 views | johnhoop |
| Ukraine on 10:17 - Sep 11 by Juzzie |
I think Russia, well the Soviet Union, did this too in WWII. Used people from all the minor and ethnic countries to act as cannon fodder when doing the big push back of the Germans.
All these countries need to form an alliance (maybe that can act as a buffer between Russia and NATO) as it’s amazing how much schit they’ve taken for decades. However, not that easy, probably impossible, as I’m sure all the people in charge are Putins puppets so would need a multiple coups all at the same time and usually these things cause more chaos than they’re trying to avoid.
Russia in the 1700’s wasn’t that big, about the size of Central Europe. Massive land grabbing (Britain, France, etc guilty of that too but much more fragmented) made it into the giant it is today. It should probably be at leat 10-20 other countries, though most of them would be sparsely populated.
[Post edited 11 Sep 2022 10:25]
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Agree with most of what you’ve said there Juzzie but I think the problem is that most of the Republics that are providing cannon fodder for Putain’s army are in the East, the Asiatic part of Russia and consequently it wouldn’t be possible for them to form a buffer between it and the Ukraine. | | | |
| Ukraine on 19:09 - Sep 11 with 3543 views | Wilkinswatercarrier |
| Ukraine on 10:17 - Sep 11 by Juzzie |
I think Russia, well the Soviet Union, did this too in WWII. Used people from all the minor and ethnic countries to act as cannon fodder when doing the big push back of the Germans.
All these countries need to form an alliance (maybe that can act as a buffer between Russia and NATO) as it’s amazing how much schit they’ve taken for decades. However, not that easy, probably impossible, as I’m sure all the people in charge are Putins puppets so would need a multiple coups all at the same time and usually these things cause more chaos than they’re trying to avoid.
Russia in the 1700’s wasn’t that big, about the size of Central Europe. Massive land grabbing (Britain, France, etc guilty of that too but much more fragmented) made it into the giant it is today. It should probably be at leat 10-20 other countries, though most of them would be sparsely populated.
[Post edited 11 Sep 2022 10:25]
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Not just WW2, during the Afghan War in the 80s the officer class was Russian, while troops were mostly ethnic minorities. There is a great documentary on PBS that shows what happened, and having watched it the Russians have made exactly the same mistakes during their invasion of Ukraine. The racism in the program is truly shocking.
The really sad thing is the Soviet soldiers were just kids with no idea what they were doing there and it is awful to watch history repeating itself.
It is worth reflecting that every time we watch a clip of a Russian helicopter or tank exploding in Twitter, that is several young lives snuffed out due to a bunch of criminals who wouldn't dare send their own kids to do the fighting. | | | |
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| Ukraine on 20:41 - Sep 11 with 3447 views | distortR |
I'm not so sure the breakthrough is important as people think. The area had been left guarded by militias and Russia has miscalculated, while there have apparently been heavy Ukrainian losses in the push on Kherson. Russia will win a war of attrition. | | | |
| Ukraine on 21:10 - Sep 11 with 3387 views | connell10 |
| Ukraine on 20:41 - Sep 11 by distortR |
I'm not so sure the breakthrough is important as people think. The area had been left guarded by militias and Russia has miscalculated, while there have apparently been heavy Ukrainian losses in the push on Kherson. Russia will win a war of attrition. |
I think the Russians just wanna get out now , they have taken a beaten. But Putin will never allow it .He needs a bullet in the back of the head . |  |
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| Ukraine on 21:25 - Sep 11 with 3367 views | CiderwithRsie |
| Ukraine on 20:41 - Sep 11 by distortR |
I'm not so sure the breakthrough is important as people think. The area had been left guarded by militias and Russia has miscalculated, while there have apparently been heavy Ukrainian losses in the push on Kherson. Russia will win a war of attrition. |
Not sure this site is the place for detailed military analysis, and I'm not going to pretend I'm an expert, but I think you're wrong.
1. Whoever was on this front line (and I see images of abandoned kit that is more than just a few militia) the line has gone so a new one needs to be made. Hundreds of miles to be guarded, the troops have to be found and moved into place, supply lines and command centres etc set up. (They've just lost the rail centre for that whole part of the country so supply lines will be extra tricky, they rely on rail to make up for lack of trucks.) Not easy even if there aren't enemies trying to kill you, as there may be. I expect it'll happen somewhere but not without serious weakening of other fronts.
2. "Russia will win a war of attrition" is one of those things that doesn't stand up to examination. Ukraine has more troops if you look into it by something like 2:1 - due to the point upthread about Russia relying on ethnic minorities - Ukraine is fighting for survival, so has mobilised fully, Russia isn't and hasn't. On equipment and money, the USA has Ukraine's back and there's no contest between Russia and the US on those things.
3. Right now it isn't even a war of attrition, for the moment it's a war of manoeuvre. | | | |
| Ukraine on 21:34 - Sep 11 with 3335 views | CiderwithRsie |
Obviously if Russia did fully mobilise that's a potential game changer but that requires the Russian population to buy in - not just spout patriotic guff, but actually go or send their kids into the meat grinder. Putin's been really keen not to do that, conscripts who were sent in at first (when they thought it'd be over in days) were pulled out.
So he clearly thinks it's politically unacceptable and it remains to be seen if that can change.
But even if they do, the point of mobilisation is that your conscripts are integrated into units run by professionals and those've been getting slaughtered for over 6 months, it's an open question if they have the numbers left. Maybe they could build a citizen army from scratch like we did in 1914 and 1939 - took us about two years in both cases. I don't think they've got two years. | | | |
| Ukraine on 23:07 - Sep 11 with 3205 views | ted_hendrix |
| Ukraine on 21:25 - Sep 11 by CiderwithRsie |
Not sure this site is the place for detailed military analysis, and I'm not going to pretend I'm an expert, but I think you're wrong.
1. Whoever was on this front line (and I see images of abandoned kit that is more than just a few militia) the line has gone so a new one needs to be made. Hundreds of miles to be guarded, the troops have to be found and moved into place, supply lines and command centres etc set up. (They've just lost the rail centre for that whole part of the country so supply lines will be extra tricky, they rely on rail to make up for lack of trucks.) Not easy even if there aren't enemies trying to kill you, as there may be. I expect it'll happen somewhere but not without serious weakening of other fronts.
2. "Russia will win a war of attrition" is one of those things that doesn't stand up to examination. Ukraine has more troops if you look into it by something like 2:1 - due to the point upthread about Russia relying on ethnic minorities - Ukraine is fighting for survival, so has mobilised fully, Russia isn't and hasn't. On equipment and money, the USA has Ukraine's back and there's no contest between Russia and the US on those things.
3. Right now it isn't even a war of attrition, for the moment it's a war of manoeuvre. |
How I see It/view It.
From a Ukranian reliable/reputable video a while ago I watched as the Ukranian army attack a convoy of Russian tanks with something like a 40-50% success rate, having trained/ exercised many-many years ago with our own 2nd Battalion Royal Tank regiment In West Germany and Libya It soon became apparent watching the video that the Russians were doing everything wrong that they possibly could, no way would our tanks have moved in formation like that, the Russian tanks were sitting ducks and scattered best they could, that has surely got to be down to bad training or a ridiculous amount of over confidence.
The video was released a while back showing the Russian army's disastrous attempt at that river crossing, It was a complete and utter failing on behalf of the Russians and cost them dearly not only in Man power but equipment too, a huge embarrassment.
It's kind of hard to believe how the Russians are performing, don't get me wrong they're not a beaten force by any stretch of the Imagination but when they invaded back In February I feared the worst for Ukraine, I thought this war would be quick and brutal, It hasn't been quick It's sadly been brutal though.
No side is going to give an inch at the negotiating table when and if the negotiating table becomes available, unfortunately I can't see the negotiating table becoming an option for a long-long time, I fear a long drawn out war unfortunately, hope I'm wrong.
I heard some British guy being interviewed on Times radio a while back, he was involved in the Crimea Peace talks back in 2014, He said the the chief Russian peace Negotiator Is still the same bloke and that he was incredibly hard work. |  |
| My Father had a profound influence on me, he was a lunatic. |
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| Ukraine on 23:11 - Sep 11 with 3198 views | distortR |
| Ukraine on 21:34 - Sep 11 by CiderwithRsie |
Obviously if Russia did fully mobilise that's a potential game changer but that requires the Russian population to buy in - not just spout patriotic guff, but actually go or send their kids into the meat grinder. Putin's been really keen not to do that, conscripts who were sent in at first (when they thought it'd be over in days) were pulled out.
So he clearly thinks it's politically unacceptable and it remains to be seen if that can change.
But even if they do, the point of mobilisation is that your conscripts are integrated into units run by professionals and those've been getting slaughtered for over 6 months, it's an open question if they have the numbers left. Maybe they could build a citizen army from scratch like we did in 1914 and 1939 - took us about two years in both cases. I don't think they've got two years. |
well, I truly hope this Russian setback will get people round the table with true intent, at least.
I try, as I'm sure you do, to read from a variety of sources, there is a huge propaganda war going on from both sides. Truth is always the first casualty of war. [Post edited 12 Sep 2022 7:13]
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| Ukraine on 08:26 - Sep 12 with 2990 views | swisscottage |
The news that is coming out today is that the RU have abandoned Lyman and Savatore and are falling back to Staroblisk and Sieverodonetsk at speed.
UAF are advancing past Lyman and over the Oskil from Izium and Kupiansk taking control of Savatore cutting off another supply hub for the RU's western front and enable UAF to flank RU forces in Sieverodonetsk and further south. | | | |
| Ukraine on 09:35 - Sep 12 with 2893 views | DWQPR |
During the early days of the war I remember seeing an interview with a soviet army veteran from the Soviet/Afghan war. He said that that war was an impossible war to win due to the terrain and the will of the Afghans to repel the invaders from their homeland. And he then went on to say that they lost the war against a mobilised population with weaponry that didn’t match in anyway with that of the Soviet armed forces. He then went on to say that this would once again be a humiliation for Russia as the Ukrainian armed forces were better trained, better mobilised, and with modern weaponry, albeit a lot of it from the post-soviet era. He also said that the will of the people would be similar to that of the Afghans. So far this gentleman has been spot on. He is a Ukrainian by the way. | |
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| Ukraine on 12:21 - Sep 12 with 2692 views | kensalriser |
It's hard to see how there will be any meaningful peace negotiations while Putin is still in charge. |  |
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| Ukraine on 12:27 - Sep 12 with 2669 views | BazzaInTheLoft |
| Ukraine on 12:21 - Sep 12 by kensalriser |
It's hard to see how there will be any meaningful peace negotiations while Putin is still in charge. |
The Communist Party of Russia are the official opposition hence the West’s dilemma . |  | | |
| Ukraine on 12:47 - Sep 12 with 2634 views | kensalriser |
| Ukraine on 12:27 - Sep 12 by BazzaInTheLoft |
The Communist Party of Russia are the official opposition hence the West’s dilemma . |
Lol! That's because they're the only opposition Putin hasn't persecuted and/or murdered. | |
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| Ukraine on 13:07 - Sep 12 with 2581 views | ted_hendrix |
The New York Times are reporting 12 Russian Generals have been killed since the war started, that Is an extraordinary high amount of so called 'top brass' Officers to be killed in combat in an 8 Month period of conflict.
Make of that what you will. | |
| My Father had a profound influence on me, he was a lunatic. |
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| Ukraine on 14:27 - Sep 12 with 2431 views | Juzzie |
| Ukraine on 13:07 - Sep 12 by ted_hendrix |
The New York Times are reporting 12 Russian Generals have been killed since the war started, that Is an extraordinary high amount of so called 'top brass' Officers to be killed in combat in an 8 Month period of conflict.
Make of that what you will. |
From what i read it's because they have had to go to the front line because the soldiers are so poorly trained/prepared and the generals are getting killed. Either than or they're walking too close to a hospital window. | | | |
| Ukraine on 15:03 - Sep 12 with 2330 views | Boston |
| Ukraine on 08:32 - Sep 11 by CiderwithRsie |
It's not complete conjecture, it's fact that the Russian army is disproportionately recruited from ethnic minorities, and that the middle class evade conscription. Putin's avoidance of a general call-up probably only makes sense if you assume that people in Moscow and St Petersburg would be appalled.
But it's not that unusual. The US Army in Vietnam was disproportionately black (and the whites tended to be from poor white communities in the south); Wellington's army was largely Irish; even today the British Army has a remarkable number of Fijians in it and recruits more in "left-behind" places than in, say, Surrey.
The difference is that ethnic minorities in the Russian Federation come from specific republics which theoretically might secede if treated badly enough. |
The US military, like the British armed forces, keep vey detailed records of everything concerning its operation, most freely available to the general public. The 'Caucasian' troops in Vietnam numbered 88.4% of those who served, the black, African Americans were 10.5%. As the population of African Americans at that time (and still today), is between 12/13%, they were actually underrepresented. | |
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| Ukraine on 15:12 - Sep 12 with 2308 views | CiderwithRsie |
| Ukraine on 15:03 - Sep 12 by Boston |
The US military, like the British armed forces, keep vey detailed records of everything concerning its operation, most freely available to the general public. The 'Caucasian' troops in Vietnam numbered 88.4% of those who served, the black, African Americans were 10.5%. As the population of African Americans at that time (and still today), is between 12/13%, they were actually underrepresented. |
Thankyou, Boston, I stand corrected, I based that statement on anecdotes, I should have been more careful.
I still think it is probably the case that the US working classes of whatever ethnicity were much more heavily represented than people who ended up with degrees | | | |
| Ukraine on 15:19 - Sep 12 with 2263 views | CiderwithRsie |
| Ukraine on 23:11 - Sep 11 by distortR |
well, I truly hope this Russian setback will get people round the table with true intent, at least.
I try, as I'm sure you do, to read from a variety of sources, there is a huge propaganda war going on from both sides. Truth is always the first casualty of war. [Post edited 12 Sep 2022 7:13]
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Well, sure, but don't fall into the equivalence trap. There was British propaganda in WW2, but it was much closer to the truth than the bullsh*t Goebbels put out, and whatever the flaws in the British Empire there's no moral equivalence between Britain and the Nazis in the war.
Pretty much same goes for both sides in current war.
This video by Michael Kofman is I think as good as you'll get on current situation. If you don't know him, he's a US military analyst specialising in Russian forces (born in southern Ukraine coincidentally). I think you'll find him pretty measured and his concern is military technicality - there's no percentage in a defence expert talking down Russian forces, it'd be like a doctor telling you that cancer won't kill you, he's paid to get these things right.
https://warontherocks.com/2022/09/ukraines-kharkhiv-operation-and-the-russian-mi | | | |
| Ukraine on 16:17 - Sep 12 with 3503 views | johann28 |
| Ukraine on 12:21 - Sep 12 by kensalriser |
It's hard to see how there will be any meaningful peace negotiations while Putin is still in charge. |
Indeed - and you get the sneaking, terrifying suspicion that if the Russians are pushed back Putin will start threatening to use tactical nuclear weapons, which will require delicate handling to say the least.
But I'm also getting the feeling that the US don't want to negotiate either (maybe there's stuff happening that we don't know about, but there doesn't seem to be much evidence that the US are encouraging a ceasefire pending discussions for example). I can't help thinking that it suits the US for Russia to be involved in a long war of attrition so that it is weakened economically. |  | | |
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