In 2022/23 season, the two games against Nottingham Forest could be deemed as perhaps lowest points in what was a season that went downhill fast after the mid season break for the World Cup, now we have the chance to show how much we have progressed.

In our relegation season the mid season break gave Southampton respite, we went into it having just sacked Ralph Hasenhuttl and replacing him with Nathan Jones, but also by dropping into the bottom 3.

However the situation was far from fatal and there were 2 clubs below us and 4 clubs including Nottingham Forest above us within 4 points

When the season renewed in December, two defeats saw us drop to bottom on 12 points and Forest arrived at St Mary's, just two places and 2 points above us, indeed a win would have pushed us not only above them, but also above West Ham who were 4th from bottom and level with Everton.

There was all to play for, but as history now tells us despite 63% possession, we failed to have a shot on target and the visitors won 1-0 with a goal on 27 minutes with their only shot on target.

Suddenly the reality was hitting home that we were very much in a relegation battle, this was the first real low point of the season.

Fast forward to May and we travelled to the City Ground with just 4 games remaining, Forest were still in the bottom 3 on 30 points, just 6 points ahead of us, as where Leeds & Leicester, the night started badly as Everton won at Brighton to pull themselves out of the bottom 3, but if we could beat Forest we could have a chance of staying up.

Saints battled gamely, but handed Forest some soft goals in what would end in a 4-3 defeat, we dominated possession, but they scored with their only 4 shots on target, Saints supporters realised the game was now up, although it would not be officially confirmed until the following weekend's defeat at home to Fulham.

So the arrival of Forest at St Mary's come 20 months after that awful night is perhaps a chance to put some bad memories to bed and perhaps confirm the progress made in the last year.

But that progress is not yet complete and we look to be going into this game with the same problem, a goalkeeper who is not up to the job.

Saints seem to be in negotiations with both Feyenoord & Arsenal, but unless something happens very quickly this morning we will not have a new man in the goal.

That leaves Russell Martin with his first dilemma, does he stick with Alex McCarthy whose weakness in playing with his feet, something integral to Martin's way of playing, was brutally exposed last week at Newcastle.

Or does he risk Joe Lumley a man with no Premier League experience, who can play with his feet, it is a big call, especially as both would know they are going to surely drop down the pecking order in the next few days.

Elsewhere the side is starting to take shape, so which of the other 9 players will play alongside Jack Stephens ?

This is another big decision for Russell Martin, I would suggest that at Newcastle he could accommodate him, 3 central defenders with Yuri Sugowara & Kyle Walker Peters as wing backs, but does he need to do that against Forest, last season they were one of the lowest scoring teams away from home, with just 22 goals, only two other clubs scored less.

Only the three relegates sides had a worse away record, so Russell Martin has to consider how he attacks them, they are going to be a side who will sit back and look to go on the attack and this sometimes does not suit us.

We also have two new midfielders to slot into the side, Lesley Ogochukwu, I feel that we need to refer him as just Big Les, going forward to save my spell checker overheating and Mateus Fernades who is more attack minded,

They will both be involved, I think Big Les will start but Fernandes will be on the bench.

So if that is the case my team would be as follows.

Goalkeeper

Suguwara Harwood-Bellis,, Bednarek, KWP

Big Les, Flynn Downes, Will Smallbone

Brereton Diaz, Archer, Armstrong

That is in my opinion, a solid line up that can play in a way that Russell Martin wants, with the full backs getting forward to be covered by Big Les & Flynn Downes and we have 3 players up front who can score goals.

That still gives us a strong bench both defensively and in midfield where we still have Joe Aribo, Mateus Fernandes & Charly Alcatraz all of whom bring different options to the party and also up front with Tyler Dibling, Same Edozie & Sam Amo-Ameyaw

The defensive side of the bench will be tricky for the manager, for a home game like this we don't need too many defenders on the bench, Charlie Taylor should be a given, he his versatile, he can play in the centre or as a full back and has experience, but who would be the genuine central defensive option ? at Newcastle it was Nathan Wood, but I suspect that Captain Jack will get the nod, that is if as I am assuming he isn't in the starting line up.

With our recent signings we have strengthened the squad, players need to be in on merit, of course we all have our opinions, but I think from my line up, of the 10 outfield players, perhaps not too many people would argue with 8 of them.

So here we go for the first home game of the season, I would suggest an earlier than usual arrival, as nobody seems to know what routes around the stadium will be open or now closed due to the change in where the away fans are now housed, we have a new ticket system and we all know what happened three years ago when we had the last one and chaos ensured.

Likewise the fanzones, they are integral to the crowd management and keeping things flowing, as it stands the railway footbridge will struggle after the game unless significant numbers stay for a drink in the Kingsland and Northam fanzones.

So I think the word of the day will have to be "Patience" both in terms of on the pitch, where we need to be behind the team and patient as it goes about it's business, we know that it is going to be a possession based game, so we are not going to go at it hammer & tongs.

But also outside the stadium where so many changes are going to cause issues, we all need to stay calm and hope that they can deal with them.

Photo: Action Images

Monksway added 10:29 - Aug 23 Amazed if it's not the same starting line up as last week with a couple of changes on the bench. Whilst we've strengthened the squad RM seems committed to giving this players that got us promotion and are still here the opportunity to show they are good enough for the Premier League.
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andywelsh added 10:44 - Aug 23 While I agree there is a strong case for playing a back 4 at home to Notts Forest I think it unlikely that Aribo will lose his place as reports suggest he was one of last week’s top performers. I think Les will be on the bench and the question is whether we play the same team or lose a centre half to allow a more attacking player to feature.
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Colburn added 17:55 - Aug 23 Aribo was magnificent in the first half at Newcastle so he may well start again. I agree it will probably either be the same starters as last week or maybe he will bring Archer in for Bednarek. It will be a shame if Sugawara doesn’t start as he was also really good at Newcastle. I think we need to win tomorrow or it could be a tough wait for the first one.
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