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Sue Gray steps down
at 23:25 7 Oct 2024

The thing that is worrying me at the moment is the rumour that Rachel Reeves will change the fiscal rules to a "borrow to invest" approach, which depending on who is doing the calculation could give extra "head room" for borrowing of up to £50 billion p.a. As the national debt is already ay 100% of GDP, and this is the point above which many economists say interest repayments become problematic, this concerns me, The Liz 'Truss crash came about because the markets perceived that the borrowing she planned would have highly negative effects. We don't want Mk 2. Both plans ostensibly involved borrowing to trigger growth. Will the markets understand the difference between borrowing to fund tax cuts and borrowing to invest? I'm not sure.

On another matter, it looks as though Gray was pushed rather than stepping down of her own volition. Political commentators today are saying that Sir Keir decided she had to go. It seems that the consolation prize will be a seat in the Lords.
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The illegal immigration capital of Europe?
at 09:02 7 Oct 2024

The news outlets are reporting the latest results from a 17-partner research consortium involved in the Measuring Irregular Migration and Related Policies (MIrreM) project. The latest report (which isn’t yet downloadable on the MirreM webpage) says that the UK has a larger population of illegal migrants than any other European country, even Germany. The upper end of the UK estimate puts the number of irregular immigrants at 745,000 people or 1 in 100 of the population.

https://www.compas.ox.ac.uk/project/mirrem

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/britain-has-most-illegal-migrants-in-europe

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/britain-has-most-migrants-in-europe-as-one-

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13931281/Britain-illegal-migrant-capita
[Post edited 7 Oct 9:03]
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Chagos Islands
at 08:08 7 Oct 2024

It seems to me we don't yet have sufficient information to know what happened with the negotiations. In particular we need to know what happened after Cameron put the negotiations on hold and then what Jonathan Powell's input was, and how this shaped the content of the treaty (which i should think is still amendable as it has not received Parliamentary approval). I would be very surprised if "rubber stamping" of an almost-complete agreement is all that happened. In media interviews that Powell gave he seemed to be trying to take credit for moving things on and ensuring that the position of the UK was safeguarded with detailed treaty provisions. A couple of the Tories involved published newspaper articles over the weekend questioning the idea they would have sanctioned this deal, but it is hard to collate all the data at this stage.
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Sue Gray steps down
at 14:50 6 Oct 2024

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/sue-gray-out-morgan-mcsweeney-in/
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Enemy within?
at 12:46 6 Oct 2024

I didn't realise how widespread this kind of attack on factories producing defence equipment has become. Pro-Palestine activists made a previous attack on this same factory in the Wirral in July when they crashed a van through the main gate. Three women were conditionally bailed.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/crgew0yxdqqo

Elsewhere, there have been a whole succession of attacks. Palestine Action did £4 million damage to a Heroux Devtek factory in Runcorn in 2021, when two were jailed for 27 and 16 months.

https://www.runcornandwidnesworld.co.uk/news/23534113.pair-jailed-causing-4milli

In 2022 the Teledyne Labtech, in Presteigne, Powys was vandalised, and 4 assailants were jailed in June 2023 (getting between 23 and 27 months sentences). Damage to this factory that made PCBs for drones was estimated at £1.2 million.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-66024348

Subsequently four more were arrested for damaging another Teledyne electronics factory in Shipley, and have been released after a jury failed to agree a verdict with a re-trial pending next year.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cx2e2qgx4w9o

I am too lazy to post links relating to attacks on factories owned by BAE Systems, Elbit Systems, and Thales UK.

Fortunately, there seem to have been arrests in connection with last week's attack. The authorities really need to get a grip on this, as these attacks have the potential to compromise national security.
[Post edited 6 Oct 14:41]
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Another day in the channel…
at 12:01 6 Oct 2024

A more precise way to put this is that such entries are illegal, but states that are signatories to the 1951 UN Refugee Convention will not impose penalties providing that certain conditions are met. This is the relevant part of Article 31.

1. The Contracting States shall not impose penalties, on
account of their illegal entry or presence, on refugees
who, coming directly from a territory where their life or
freedom was threatened in the sense of Article 1, enter or
are present in their territory without authorization,
provided they present themselves without delay to the
authorities and show good cause for their illegal entry or
presence.

As I have mentioned before on here, progressive lawyers have managed to water down the bit to do with "coming directly" (i.e. the need to register in first safe country). However, it seems to me that the "illegal entry or presence" bit still stands, or otherwise the Convention would have to be rewritten to retain a provision that allows asylum seekers to escape the imposition of a penalty.
[Post edited 6 Oct 12:02]
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Another day in the channel…
at 11:47 6 Oct 2024

This has been the line trotted out by the majority of economists for some time,, but the consensus now seems to be changing. A recent report from the Office of Budget Responsibility has suggested that mass low-skilled migration is having a significant negative fiscal impact (something I've been arguing for a while), and several recent newspaper articles have pointed out that recent research studies from countries like Germany, Sweden and Denmark are also showing negative fiscal impacts. Basically this kind of immigration boosts aggregate GDP but lowers per capita GDP - the economy as a whole is bigger but the average individual is poorer.

https://obr.uk/frs/fiscal-risks-and-sustainability-september-2024/#chapter-4
(See Paragraph 4.39 onwards)

https://uk.news.yahoo.com/britain-pay-costs-low-skilled-120000172.html

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/denmark-sweden-and-germany-have-analysed-im

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/09/12/low-skilled-migrants-cost-taxpay
(pay wall)

https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2024/04/30/immigration-is-surgin
(need to register)
[Post edited 6 Oct 11:49]
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Swansea City v Stoke City : Match day thread
at 18:28 5 Oct 2024

Anybody know what he was doing here? Was it just a case of being in the UK and wanting to watch one of his old clubs (2000-2001 season)?
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Oberfemi and Whittaker
at 17:20 5 Oct 2024

I see that Whittaker scored deep into added time. Whatever his issues may have been, he looks a much more likely goal scorer than anything we have.
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Swansea City v Stoke City : Match day thread
at 17:02 5 Oct 2024

Could have still been playing late tonight and not scored, though I think we would have conceded by then. Things got even worse when the subs came on. Supporters come to see goals and our toothless attack is starting to be reflected in home attendances.
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Another day in the channel…
at 16:08 5 Oct 2024

Hard to add anything really - surreal events dressed up in a bizarre version of morality that says boats cannot be turned back because it puts lives at risk. We've seen over and over that it is allowing boats to proceed that results in deaths. And when this boat arrives on our shores will the occupants be held in custody and questioned? My guess is brief interviews and then an hotel.
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Swansea City v Stoke City : Match day thread
at 15:54 5 Oct 2024

I'd put this down as an encouraging performance, but one that again illustrates that our striker problem remains. We've seen before that Ronald is not a clinical finisher and so it proved again today with two or three good opportunities wasted. Eom was unlucky with his shot against the bar, but one gets the sense that we could be playing for a long while before a goal comes. Sadly, we always have a mistake in us, so we can't even be confident of a clean sheet in what is a pretty one-sided game.
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Welsh Government Scandalous waste of money.
at 09:08 5 Oct 2024

Surely though at some point we need to judge performance according to outcomes, which looking at present circumstances in Wales are not good. It seems reasonable to think that there has to be accountability at some point, but too many keep voting for that donkey with the red rosette.
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Walter Road to Sketty cycle path scheme paused
at 20:06 4 Oct 2024

Agree about the cycle path - very few in the local area want this because the road will be narrowed to also provide grassy areas and wider footpaths. In fact, the councillors didn't show common sense months ago when they waved this through - it was only the independent Uplands councillors who showed sense and got abused for their trouble. Now the enthusiasts have had to backtrack.
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Chagos Islands
at 18:11 4 Oct 2024

Well, the spokesperson for Chagossian Voices interviewed by various media sources today said his people want to stay under British protection. It seems that there are some who support the deal, but many who do not. Apart from Chagossians, few if any Mauritians have ever lived on the Chagos Islands - they are 1300 miles apart.

https://news.sky.com/video/chagossians-feel-betrayed-as-uk-hands-over-sovereignt

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13922547/Chagossians-accuse-Sir-Keir-St

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cy78ejg71exo
[Post edited 4 Oct 20:09]
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Walter Road to Sketty cycle path scheme paused
at 17:29 4 Oct 2024

Does anybody remember the story of the planned redevelopment of Walter Road to create a segregated cycle path and narrow the highway, and the controversy this stirred up? The Council inflamed the situation by setting up a public consultation exercise and then taking the decision to go ahead before the results had been collated. It is rumoured that the balance of opinion was very much against the plan. I posted a video many months ago of a council meeting where Uplands Councillors asked if ignoring the consultation was pukka and were showered by abuse by the Labour pack.

Well it seems that local businesses have added their voices of dissent and the scheme has been halted, although it is not as yet clear whether this is anything more than a temporary pause.

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/money/other/major-update-on-swanseas-controversial-cyc

One quotation from a councillor that stands out for its sheer mendacity is the following:

Cllr Stevens added: "We are aware of misleading comments on social media claiming that decisions were made before people have had a chance to give their views. This is completely untrue."

Who elects these *******?
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Chagos Islands
at 12:56 4 Oct 2024

Jonathan Powell (chief UK negotiator) says the US was happy with the deal. Some journalists say that serious concerns were expressed in private. Guess we will find out eventually.

Can't show full article because of the Times pay wall.

"Keir Starmer gave up Chagos Islands despite private US warnings"
Aubrey Allegretti

Thursday 3 October 2024
|
The Times
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Enemy within?
at 11:09 4 Oct 2024

For me that just takes one to the opening Youtube page. However, I found a solution by using "share" in Youtube: just click the modified url and it will work.
[Post edited 4 Oct 11:23]
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Enemy within?
at 11:03 4 Oct 2024

I found this on a pro-Ukraine Telegram channel that mainly reports on the conflict there. The Ukrainian author asks "what the **** is going on in the UK " that we allow this.
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Enemy within?
at 10:49 4 Oct 2024

This is film of pro-Palestine activists trying to sabotage a UK factory making components for the F-35 jet. I've seen some crazy things in my time, but at the present juncture in geo-political events this takes the biscuit. If the jail tariff for social media keyboard warriors is at least 15 months, I wonder what these people deserve.


https://youtube.com/shorts/BbKI1fQwLow?si=uGhxM4ZLb5A-jTzp

Edit: Youtube is glitchy - just click the link above.
[Post edited 4 Oct 11:21]
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