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The English Football League will next week tell clubs in Leagues One and Two there is no chance of playing any more games this season and ask them to vote on a method to decide promotion and relegation.
EFL chairman Rick Parry told MPs on the Digital, Culture, Media and Sport select committee on Wednesday morning that a resolution to the season in the third and fourth tiers was only a matter of days away and it now seems a decision could come as early as Monday or Tuesday.
The Athletic understands the EFL board has already received several proposals from clubs, with the current favourite being a points-per-game (PPG) model weighted to reflect how many games the teams have played home and away.
The rationale for this idea is a non-weighted PPG calculation does not take into account the fact that some teams have four home games left, while others have six.
This season across the Football League, the home team has won 46 per cent of the time, with away teams winning only 26 per cent of the games. Over the last six EFL seasons, the average PPG at home is 1.55, compared to 1.19 away.
Under this method, which has been used to decide the tables in English grassroots club rugby union, each club’s PPG would be worked out for their home and away fixtures, then multiplied by 22 for League One, which had 23 clubs this season because of Bury’s demise last summer, and 23 for League Two and then added together to reach a total for the season.
The Athletic understands that a League One club has prepared a detailed explanation of this method, with a full set of final tables, and emailed it to the EFL board.
With the EFL admitting there is no chance of staging its traditional end-of-season play-offs in Leagues One and Two, the top three sides in the League One will be promoted to the Championship, with three going down to League Two, while four come up from League Two and only one goes down, to restore the EFL to its full quota of 72 teams.
The weighted PPG method does not change the top three in League One at all, meaning Coventry City would be crowned champions, with Rotherham United and Oxford United joining them in the Championship next season. The current bottom three – Tranmere Rovers, Southend United and Bolton Wanderers – would still be the bottom three, although Bolton would climb one spot, leaving Southend in last place.
In League Two, Swindon Town would leapfrog Crewe Alexandra into first place, with Plymouth Argyle staying in third but Cheltenham Town climbing over Exeter City to claim the final promotion spot. Stevenage Borough would remain in last place, despite the seven-point deduction Macclesfield Town received on Thursday for failing to fulfill a fixture or pay their players on time.
The Athletic has spoken to two other EFL clubs who said they were aware of this proposal and several others who said they were not, but every club approached said they knew of at least half a dozen different ideas that were circulating around the league. These include using the current tables to settle the finishing positions, a non-weighted PPG model and an idea to only count the first half of the season, which would be the first 22 games in League One and 23 games in League Two.
Some clubs have discussed using more complicated statistical models that factor in how hard each club’s run-in was before the season was suspended in March. There is considerable opposition to these models, though, with one club dismissing them as “hypothetical and unfair”.
The prospect of declaring the season “null and void” appears to have receded, as most clubs acknowledge this would be very unfair on the teams that have got themselves into the promotion place. It would also come with financial and legal risks.
However, any club faced with relegation is almost certainly going to object to being demoted on the basis of PPG, weighted or otherwise. This has led to some clubs suggesting either two or three clubs are promoted this season, with none relegated. Five teams would then be relegated from the divisions above next season, in order to reset them.
But this idea will face strong opposition from the English game’s bosses as it will lead to fixture congestion next season, complicate the distribution of central income and break the terms of the tripartite agreement the EFL, FA and Premier League signed when the top flight broke away from the EFL in 1992.
As things stand, however, both the Premier League and Championship are determined to finish this season’s fixtures in neutral stadiums behind closed doors, which would mean all these issues would be settled on the pitch in the top two divisions.
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Exclusive: Leagues One and Two abandoned, clubs to vote how to decide places on 17:44 - May 15 with 3602 views
Reports claim that L2 have voted to scrap relegation this year, meaning Stevenage will stay up. I assume that means Barrow have a chance of coming up and replacing Bury.
And if 4 go up from L2 then surely there’s no question of scrapping relegation in our league. Three will have to go down. For, erm, sporting integrity.
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Exclusive: Leagues One and Two abandoned, clubs to vote how to decide places on 17:49 - May 15 with 3598 views
Exclusive: Leagues One and Two abandoned, clubs to vote how to decide places on 17:44 - May 15 by Shun
Reports claim that L2 have voted to scrap relegation this year, meaning Stevenage will stay up. I assume that means Barrow have a chance of coming up and replacing Bury.
And if 4 go up from L2 then surely there’s no question of scrapping relegation in our league. Three will have to go down. For, erm, sporting integrity.
If three clubs are to be promoted then one should also be relegated as it denies a club from the National League a rightful place in the EFL
Exclusive: Leagues One and Two abandoned, clubs to vote how to decide places on 17:57 - May 15 by TVOS1907
There's only one National League club who rightly deserve a place in the EFL; the one currently at the top.
Barrow will go up to replace Bury anyhow so there should be playoffs to decide who replaced Stevenage should they be the one who gets relegated,if there are relegations from League1 and above then why should League 2 differ
Exclusive: Leagues One and Two abandoned, clubs to vote how to decide places on 18:02 - May 15 by ncfc_chalky
Barrow will go up to replace Bury anyhow so there should be playoffs to decide who replaced Stevenage should they be the one who gets relegated,if there are relegations from League1 and above then why should League 2 differ
The whole thing is a bloody shambles, so l2 decide what they want and league 1 decide something else, and as the decisions made have to be done jointly, Sod all is agreed.
The only way this can be agreed is having every chairman from premier to either l2 or national league, all voting on what is to happen re relegation places and promotion places, at least then a fair overall consensus is reached, with a lower overall effect of self interest in each division.
At least that puts to bed promotion and relegation and play offs (or not)
With regard to the finishing (or not) of the season, it will continue to be a shambles, but I guess will eventually come down to a vote from each individual league, with majority eventually deciding on what option is fair.
On the plus side bURY won’t be back, although part of me would love to see them put back in, and all the morons start to get giddy again, before they fall to bits again!
Every Team Needs A John Ryan - The Winger Who's a Ringer!!!!!
The rebel 6 clubs know they cannot force the remaining L1 clubs to complete their fixtures. So I am struggling to see why there cannot be a simple conclusion to the stand off. The six can have their own mini league, if they can comply with the testing, social distancing and when the government says it is safe to begin playing. The other clubs can get on with their release lists, contract arrangements,ground and stands readiness. Begin taking income from season ticket sales, albeit that at time of securing their tickets the fans will not know the dates and 6 of the opponents. But will by the time the tickets are dispatched. The rebels that stay in L1 will need to fit in with the dates, and will need to for go the normal arrangement of having a Xmas / new year game at home against reasonably local rivals. Personally I think a 6 point deduction would also be in order. But in the interests of a consensus that won’t happen. It beggars belief that Tranmere have sucked PPG up and these 6 are standing in it’s way. Shame on them and hats of to Tranmere.
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Exclusive: Leagues One and Two abandoned, clubs to vote how to decide places on 20:52 - May 15 with 3241 views
Exclusive: Leagues One and Two abandoned, clubs to vote how to decide places on 19:40 - May 15 by jonahwhereru
The rebel 6 clubs know they cannot force the remaining L1 clubs to complete their fixtures. So I am struggling to see why there cannot be a simple conclusion to the stand off. The six can have their own mini league, if they can comply with the testing, social distancing and when the government says it is safe to begin playing. The other clubs can get on with their release lists, contract arrangements,ground and stands readiness. Begin taking income from season ticket sales, albeit that at time of securing their tickets the fans will not know the dates and 6 of the opponents. But will by the time the tickets are dispatched. The rebels that stay in L1 will need to fit in with the dates, and will need to for go the normal arrangement of having a Xmas / new year game at home against reasonably local rivals. Personally I think a 6 point deduction would also be in order. But in the interests of a consensus that won’t happen. It beggars belief that Tranmere have sucked PPG up and these 6 are standing in it’s way. Shame on them and hats of to Tranmere.
I find it strange that Wycombe & Doncaster haven’t joined the “rebel 6”. Both above Ipswich with a better chance of breaking into the playoffs. To get this mess concluded I’d suggest the 4 playoff teams as it stands play a semi final as a one off game at a neutral venue. The game could be shown live but the location not publicly disclosed, it could even be held at a suitable premier league training facility rather than a stadium to minimise the number of staff required. Then do the same for the “final”. For the teams outside the playoffs I’m afraid it’s tough luck lads.
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Exclusive: Leagues One and Two abandoned, clubs to vote how to decide places on 21:13 - May 15 with 3188 views
Exclusive: Leagues One and Two abandoned, clubs to vote how to decide places on 17:44 - May 15 by Shun
Reports claim that L2 have voted to scrap relegation this year, meaning Stevenage will stay up. I assume that means Barrow have a chance of coming up and replacing Bury.
And if 4 go up from L2 then surely there’s no question of scrapping relegation in our league. Three will have to go down. For, erm, sporting integrity.
Idon’t think L2 clubs have the authority to scrap relegation to non league...if they did they would do it every year.
I read yesterday, that Phil Parkinson as suggested that their should be a mini league at the top and also a mini league at the bottom for relegation. If his idea was adopted, how would that work, when Bolton who are 21 points from safety with 10 gamest go and Southend who are 16 points from safety with 9 games? It is not like they are an odd point from safety, it is almost a worse suggestion then that of Mr Martin the Southend chairman wants the season voided, which would save them from going down.
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Exclusive: Leagues One and Two abandoned, clubs to vote how to decide places on 08:26 - May 18 with 2201 views
Exclusive: Leagues One and Two abandoned, clubs to vote how to decide places on 07:56 - May 18 by NorthernDale
I read yesterday, that Phil Parkinson as suggested that their should be a mini league at the top and also a mini league at the bottom for relegation. If his idea was adopted, how would that work, when Bolton who are 21 points from safety with 10 gamest go and Southend who are 16 points from safety with 9 games? It is not like they are an odd point from safety, it is almost a worse suggestion then that of Mr Martin the Southend chairman wants the season voided, which would save them from going down.
With 20% of the season left to play, I think he has more than a valid argument for voiding the whole season, with no promotion or relegation.
As 442Dale says, because we benefit from PPG we're all happy to take it, but there are compelling arguments that cast doubt on the fairness of PPG.
Judd, I would agree that He would have a valid argument to void the league, if it was just an odd point between the teams. However Southend are 16 points behind and with a goal difference of -46 compared to Wimbledon's goal difference of -13, so Southend would have to win 6 out of their remaining games, just to overtake Wimbledon, if you take the goal difference into account.
Southend games include the Dale (A), Rotherham (A), Sunderland (H), Ipswich (A), Wycombe (H), Portsmouth (H), Fleetwood (A), - be honest can you see Southend winning the 6 games they would need to just overtake Wimbledon, whilst hoping that Wimbledon do not pick any points up.
Bolton would have to win 7 games and draw 1 just to overtake Wimbledon and their remaining fixture include - Oxford (A), Rotherham (H), Ipswich (A), Fleetwood (A), Peterborough (H), Doncaster (H)
So the idea of voiding the league is based on the simple fact that Southend know any other option and they are in league 2 next next season. I would argue that Tranmere have a case and should not be relegated. Which is possible if you only let the top three in league 2 up.
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Exclusive: Leagues One and Two abandoned, clubs to vote how to decide places on 11:40 - May 18 with 2019 views
Exclusive: Leagues One and Two abandoned, clubs to vote how to decide places on 11:00 - May 18 by NorthernDale
Judd, I would agree that He would have a valid argument to void the league, if it was just an odd point between the teams. However Southend are 16 points behind and with a goal difference of -46 compared to Wimbledon's goal difference of -13, so Southend would have to win 6 out of their remaining games, just to overtake Wimbledon, if you take the goal difference into account.
Southend games include the Dale (A), Rotherham (A), Sunderland (H), Ipswich (A), Wycombe (H), Portsmouth (H), Fleetwood (A), - be honest can you see Southend winning the 6 games they would need to just overtake Wimbledon, whilst hoping that Wimbledon do not pick any points up.
Bolton would have to win 7 games and draw 1 just to overtake Wimbledon and their remaining fixture include - Oxford (A), Rotherham (H), Ipswich (A), Fleetwood (A), Peterborough (H), Doncaster (H)
So the idea of voiding the league is based on the simple fact that Southend know any other option and they are in league 2 next next season. I would argue that Tranmere have a case and should not be relegated. Which is possible if you only let the top three in league 2 up.
He is the only one to come out with a wish to void the league, but I wonder if any others feel the same.
End of season run ins can and do buck trends, but I do agree theirs is a tall order to conquer.
The EFL statement reads:
"There were varied views shared in League One and it was determined that there would be a further period of reflection and consultation to understand what creative solutions could be implemented. It was acknowledged that the need to find innovative and creative solutions was of paramount importance as was the need for decisions to be taken quickly."
It's becoming a predictable farce. The EFL should just make a decision and call an end to the season.
There cannot be two different decisions for divisions with the same organisation and league structure. League Two have decided and League One should be instructed to follow the same decision.
Get it done and dusted and stop dithering. Majority decision and subsequent acceptance by EFL and other League One clubs. Stop these Billy Big Boll*cks clubs from making their own rules to suit themselves. They're in League One where they belong. One rule for all clubs.
“It is easier to fool people, than to convince them that they have been fooledâ€
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Exclusive: Leagues One and Two abandoned, clubs to vote how to decide places on 12:43 - May 18 with 1907 views
Exclusive: Leagues One and Two abandoned, clubs to vote how to decide places on 12:32 - May 18 by SuddenLad
It's becoming a predictable farce. The EFL should just make a decision and call an end to the season.
There cannot be two different decisions for divisions with the same organisation and league structure. League Two have decided and League One should be instructed to follow the same decision.
Get it done and dusted and stop dithering. Majority decision and subsequent acceptance by EFL and other League One clubs. Stop these Billy Big Boll*cks clubs from making their own rules to suit themselves. They're in League One where they belong. One rule for all clubs.
I doubt we'll see the sort of leadership you are seeking when the EFL state:
"The EFL Board, whose aspiration has always been to conclude the 2019/20 season by completing the remaining fixtures, has previously stated that any decision on how to conclude the season is a matter for Clubs to determine in their respective divisions "
The Board need to either insist the remaining fixtures are completed and come up with a financial plan to facilitate this lengthening of the season (including the temporary extension of player contracts), or call the season void, with no promotions and relegations, and everyone starts next season as they started this, ie. points deductions, transfer embargoes in place and so on. They could even have an equitable sharing of prize money if it is based on league position.
Exclusive: Leagues One and Two abandoned, clubs to vote how to decide places on 12:43 - May 18 by judd
I doubt we'll see the sort of leadership you are seeking when the EFL state:
"The EFL Board, whose aspiration has always been to conclude the 2019/20 season by completing the remaining fixtures, has previously stated that any decision on how to conclude the season is a matter for Clubs to determine in their respective divisions "
The Board need to either insist the remaining fixtures are completed and come up with a financial plan to facilitate this lengthening of the season (including the temporary extension of player contracts), or call the season void, with no promotions and relegations, and everyone starts next season as they started this, ie. points deductions, transfer embargoes in place and so on. They could even have an equitable sharing of prize money if it is based on league position.
In other words, they've 'bottled it'. We could be waiting for a decision for weeks if this carries on, being kicked backwards and forwards, whilst the few clubs 'Umm' and 'Aargh'
The EFL should take the lead and show some spine. Today.
“It is easier to fool people, than to convince them that they have been fooledâ€
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Exclusive: Leagues One and Two abandoned, clubs to vote how to decide places on 13:03 - May 18 with 1867 views
Exclusive: Leagues One and Two abandoned, clubs to vote how to decide places on 12:32 - May 18 by SuddenLad
It's becoming a predictable farce. The EFL should just make a decision and call an end to the season.
There cannot be two different decisions for divisions with the same organisation and league structure. League Two have decided and League One should be instructed to follow the same decision.
Get it done and dusted and stop dithering. Majority decision and subsequent acceptance by EFL and other League One clubs. Stop these Billy Big Boll*cks clubs from making their own rules to suit themselves. They're in League One where they belong. One rule for all clubs.
Excellent post and I fully agree.
The EFL need to step up and let everybody know what they have decided.
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