 Wednesday, 4th Aug 2010 11:09 by Clive Whittingham Middlesbrough, Nottingham Forest, Reading, QPR, Ipswich and Leicester are the bookies' favourites for promotion this season. Middlesbrough 13/2 Last Season LFW said: This could go one of two ways and I just cannot make my mind up which. Boro have enough quality in their squad to make the top six in the Championship, and that may well happen. However they also have a manager who seemed to lose the plot a little bit last season and in sticking with him have Boro created a situation where they will be searching for a new gaffer after a poor start to the season and be left to effectively write off this campaign as early as October or November. I just don’t know and would not like to hazard a guess. Manager Survival Chances Gareth Southgate 4/10 Likely Star Player Julio Arca Verdict 3rd. Play off push I think.
What actually happened? 11th. Usually I avoid tipping relegated teams for success because usually this sort of thing happens. However having wrongly tipped Newcastle for a disaster that left me short of options for teams I thought would do well and so Boro were placed third in the predicted table, and never looked likely to get anywhere close to that. A distinct lack of firepower hampered them initially, Gareth Southgate got the push, Gordon Strachan made a slow start and eventually they peered out into a poor midtable finish. Manager Southgate really should have been sacked after relegation from the Premiership. He’d made some poor decisions in the transfer market and his Boro team left the top flight with barely a murmur of opposition. Having kept it on it then seemed silly to allow him a full summer transfer window to build a tam for the Championship and then sack him in the autumn limiting the new man’s scope to improve matters. That Southgate actually went after a home win against Derby makes the decision from one of the country’s most notoriously patient chairman all the more perverse. Star Man David Wheater looked a class apart on both occasions we played Boro last season but Gary O’Neil took the club’s player of the year award.
Next season LFW Says:Gordon Strachan replaced Southgate midway through last season and although, just as it did at Southampton and Coventry, it took him five games to record a win when it did come it was a 5-1 success at QPR. That hinted at the quality Boro did have at their disposal but rarely shone through after that and a policy during last season, and this summer, of signing players from the SPL where Strachan managed Cetic for four years predictably bore poor returns. Kris Boyd looks a good signing in this league but seven players have now arrived from north of the border where the league is that in name only, pathetically short of quality and laughably lacking in competitive matches it’s not the place you want to be shopping for players. Still, in a rank Championship this year Boro should be challenging at the top end. The Manager: Strachan always has been a bit odd. He was remorselessly successful at Celtic, winning the league three times in four years, but could never quite win over the fans there who understandably idolised his predecessor Martin O’Neill. Many blamed Strachan, not his replacement Tony Mowbray, for the mess the Bhoys found themselves in last season. At Southampton he took them to an FA Cup final but walked away. At Coventry he built an exciting side that, for once, wasn’t haunted by relegation from the top flight every season – then dismantled it and got them relegated after all. Abrasive, hard to like, and slow to get going at Boro he has more resources at his disposal than most others at this level and a notoriously patient chairman to boot. Survival chances – 7/10. Ins and Outs: Emmanuel Pogatetz has gone to Hannover and John Johnson to Northampton, half of Scotland has arrived. Kevin Thomson, Kris Boyd (both Rangers), Stephen McManus (Celtic) and Andrew Halliday (Livingstone) have all moved south for big money. Strachan also spent £1.4m on Nicky Bailey from Charlton. Tarmo Kink is an unknown from Gyori. Potential Stars: Kris Boyd has the physical attributes to pose a real threat in the Championship, but the SPL is a vastly inferior league to the Championship and Boro may pay for relying too heavily on too many players from up north. Verdict: 2nd. A concerted promotion push on the cards if the Scots step up.
Nottingham Forest 9/1 Last season: LFW said: Forest have added intelligently and have an excellent manager at this level. With no signs yet that the spending is over and only really the middle of their defence looking like a potential weak spot at the moment I think they could be in for a very successful season. Manager Survival Chances 7/10 Likely Star Player Radoslaw Majewski Verdict 6th. Play offs.
What actually happened? Third. The LFW pre-season call was just about spot on. Forest struggled against relegation the previous season but survived when Billy Davies took over halfway through the season. Given a summer to build a squad Davies wasted no time in overhauling the squad and it was obvious from the additions he made – Chris Gunter, Paul McKenna and Radowslaw Majewski stood out – that they were going to be a threat. Davies got his fingers burnt at Derby by taking them into the Premiership one year into a three year plan (he lost his job and the Rams won just one of 38 top flight games) and in the end he didn’t seem overly disappointed when reflecting on a high scoring play off semi final defeat against Blackpool. Manager One of, if not the, Championship’s very best managers. He has built an excellent side at Forest but as ever has not been shy of being a little prickly with his employers. A player selection panel, including former Spurs boss David Pleat, has been in place at Forest since David Platt spunked millions up the wall and left them in a dire position from which they have only recently recovered. Every now and again Davies has a little pop at this panel, and he got especially angry when George Boyd arrived from Peterborough in January. This may be a bone of contention if he cannot sign who he wants this summer. Star Man Majewski was impressive, but the Nottingham Forest player of the season as voted for by their fans was goalkeeper Lee Camp. Sold on the cheap by QPR last summer because Flavio Briatore didn’t like him, a decision that looked more and more ridiculous as the season wore on. As his much older replacement Radek Cerny’s form fell apart at Loftus Road resulting in a loan of Wolves’ fourth place keeper Carl Ikeme Camp kept 18 clean sheets, finished third in the league and won the club’s top players award.
Next season LFW Says: In a wide open Championship containing no relegated teams likely to pose a threat Forest look to be the early front runners for the title. Personally unless Davies has one of his infamous temper tantrums, and there has already been murmurings of an eruption following the sale of James Perch to Newcastle, I think they’ll be promoted. The Manager: Davies has proved to be an inspired appointment at Forest, but he’s not afraid to speak his mind and the situation doesn’t seem entirely settled at the City Ground. A ‘player acquisition panel’ was installed by the club after David Platt spent millions on tat and almost bankrupted the place but its continued presence under an experienced operator like Davies seems unnecessary and having decisions influenced, or in the case of James Perch’s sale made entirely, by people like David Pleat over his head is never going to please Davies greatly. Despite this, and a lack of eye catching arrivals, I’d expect Forest to go strongly and Davies to survive but it will only take a minor blip for the situation to explode. Survival chances – 7/10. Ins and outs: Radowslaw Majewski has made his loan move permanent but otherwise Forest have only lost players rather than gained. James Perch has gone to Newcastle, apparently without Davies’ knowledge, and Joe Garner being loaned to Huddersfield looks a strange decision. James Reid, Mark Byrne and Shane Redmond have been released. Likely Star: Pending further additions Forest will again be looking to Lee Camp at the back, Majewski to provide attacking spark and Blackstock, Garner, Earnshaw, Adebola and others to score prolifically. That’s a polite way of saying I’m not sure. Verdict 1st. Clear and obvious champions, leading the way from September onwards.
Reading 12/1 Last Season LFW said:Reading still have just about enough quality about them to justify a top half finish, and I rate their new manager very highly so they may yet stand a chance of making the six. I just feel that they have lost a lot of quality from their team, and with the end of the parachute payments in sight cloth will have to continue to be cut accordingly. A constant theme in my predictions and reviews this summer has been goals - Sheffield United may not have a spectacular side but they have invested in Ched Evans who will score goals, Cardiff City is an unhappy place to be at the moment but they have Chopra who will score them goals. Do Reading have sufficient attacking ability at their disposal to trouble the best sides in the league? I think not. Manager Survival Chances Brendan Rodgers 7/10 Likely Star Player Stephen Hunt if he stays Verdict 8th Midtable pending further arrivals.
What actually happened? 9th. Well position wise LFW had it about right, just one place out, but just about everything else predicted was wrong. Stephen Hunt went to Hull early doors, Brendan Rodgers endured a torrid time as manager and was sacked before Christmas, then they showed form the defied their poor start and numerous departures under his replacement Brian McDermott. Ultimately only a rank start to the season prevented the Royals from reaching the play offs. Manager Rodgers had been charged with rebuilding Reading following relegation from the Premiership and the subsequent slashing of the wage bill. A promising, up and coming manager who had done well at Watford charged with a long term project it seemed, but Reading were short of patience and a poor start that included a 4-1 defeat at QPR saw him fall on his sword. Chief scout Brian McDermott, previously employed as a manager only with Woking, stepped in as a caretaker initially but his results were extraordinary and he won the role on a permanent basis against the odds. Star Man Gylfi Sigurdsson caught the eye and won the club’s player of the year award with 20 goals from midfield.
Next season LFW Says: If Reading start this season as they ended the last they could really threaten in a wide open division. But will they? McDermott is hardly going to win any personality awards and his success last year could have been down to him simply being a breath of fresh air after Rodgers who really made a mess of his chance with Reading. Faced with a full season of his own where he’s not simply picking up the pieces and working with somebody else’s squad can McDermott keep that sort of form going? The Manager: Brian McDermott comes across, without wishing to be too unkind, as being boring a hell in his post match interviews and has no managerial pedigree at all apart from very brief and unsuccessful spells with Woking and Slough. He seems popular at Reading though and did great things in trying circumstances last season. It could just be that he’s a good fit at this club, in the same way Nigel Adkins does so well at Scunthorpe, or I could be he was a flash in the pan last season. Expect Madejski to act quickly if he turns out to be the latter – his sacking of Rodgers was harsh whatever anybody says. Survival chances – 5/10. Ins and Outs: Andy Griffin adds experience from Stoke and Marcus Williams was a fine player at Scunthorpe – although both are left backs so it’s hard to see why they’ve bought both. James Henry has gone to Millwall, Kalifa Cisse to Bristol City, Radoslaw Vasilev and Marek Matejovsky have also dearted. Potential Stars: Sigurdsson has stayed and will be a threat again, Matt Mills is a good centre half despite his rather public falling out with supporters during our game there last season, Jobi McAnuff remains despite interest from QPR. Verdict: 7th. Benefit of the doubt that McDermott can continue in the same vein, but it would be no real surprise if he doesn’t.
QPR 12/1 Last Season LFW said: With Rowlands and Buzsaky coming back to fitness and Adel Taarabt signed on loan for the whole campaign QPR look stronger than they did last season. However while the attacking options from midfield really excite, the out and out strikers they have to lead the line do not. Agyemang has never scored prolifically consistently in his career, Vine is more of a link man, Helguson is injury plagued and Pellicori is unknown. If one of them clicks, stays fit and fires then he should get all the service he needs from an excellent looking midfield line up. For me QPR are relying on too many variables to be considered serious top six material – two injuries rendered them toothless last season and would do so again if they happen this season, they are weak at left full back and in attack and as always Magilton and everybody else at the club is at the mercy of a chairman who could at best be described as eccentric. Manager Survival Chances Jim Magilton 3/10 Likely Star Player Akos Buzsaky if he stays fit, Adel Taarabt otherwise. Verdict 7th. Better than last year but not by much.
What actually happened? 13th. It’s worth pointing out that the overly optimistic prediction of seventh made by LFW last season was met with abuse in the comments section over pessimism and lack of positive thinking. Presumably those people topped themselves around Christmas as Rangers lurched embarrassingly through another season of total and utter farce. Jim Magilton seemed to have the magic formula, the results and performances in September and October were the stuff of champions, before his untimely demise. The appointment of Paul Hart was a living nightmare and brought all the disasters it richly deserved. Mick Harford made things worse and Neil Warnock only just about managed to bring the team together and keep it in the league. Ultimately the only positive to take from the season was the sheer ridiculousness of it all finally forced Flavio Briatore to, in the words of Malcolm Tucker, fuck the fuck off. Manager Which one? Magilton’s football style and principals won friends in W12 as Rangers put the rounds of the kitchen through Barnsley, Preston, Reading and then Derby live on national television. Newcastle rated us as the best opposition they faced up there last season. Sadly the former Ipswich manager turned out to be a deeply flawed individual, flying into towering rages after defeats then being nice as pie the day after, singling individuals like Akos Buzsaky out for public criticism while constantly jiggling his team around to accommodate favourite like Fitz Hall. When his temper got the better of him after a big defeat at Watford the fall out saw him sacked. The decision to then replace him with a miserable long ball merchant like Paul Hart was laughable, and if whoever made it remains involved at our club then he really should resign through the shame of it. A Boxing Day win against Bristol City was greeted with boos and an early walkout by many fans as Hart sent on one defender after another to protect a miserable 2-1 lead against rank, out of form opposition and he resigned a couple of weeks later when, predictably, the ever interfering board presented him with a series of crap signings as opposed to the likes of Tommy Smith and Mike Williamson who he actually wanted. Mick Harford was appointed permanently, but did dreadfully so the club pretended he was only a caretaker and brought Neil Warnock in from Palace to save the day right at the end. Star Man Midfielder Alejandro Faurlin was a surprise hit and clear player of the year winner. A combination of the language barrier and experience of such high farce at home in Argentinean football meant he was able to obliviously continue to perform at a high level as the club imploded around him.
Next season LFW Says: The definition of insanity is repeating the same actions and expecting a different result. Once again QPR are approaching the new campaign woefully short of firepower. It’s been a problem since age finally caught up with Paul Furlong and on the odd occasion attempts to deal with it have been made, they’ve only been temporary – Jay Simpson on loan for example. Leon Clarke is a barrel scraping, Jamie Mackie a stab in the dark, and Heidar Helguson is injury prone. Throw in the terminally useless Alessandro Pellicori and Patrick Agyemang and it is clear, once again, that QPR do not have the goal scorers in their team to mount a serious challenge. A shift of power in the boardroom and the prospect of a manager being left alone to do his job will improve matters, but that problem of consistently being able to score plenty of goals will dog Rangers throughout if not rectified by the end of August. £3m this summer would have netted the R’s Kris Boyd and Billy Sharp and given them a real fighting chance of the top two. The Manager: Neil Warnock has been there, seen it and done it during his career winning promotions with Plymouth, Notts County, Huddersfield and Sheffield United. He’s not well liked anywhere, and his mere presence will give many teams an extra excuse to try hard against Rangers this season. He left Palace with a heavy heart last season for the promise of stability with the new QPR board and a genuine shot at one last Premiership campaign but the signings so far look a world away from top flight players. Ins and Outs: QPR have spent money this summer contrary to what many of their fans seem to think. Paddy Kenny (700k), Jamie Mackie (500k) and Bradley Orr (500k) represent a substantial outlay with talk of Adel Taarabt (£1m) still to come. However Rangers have not spent serious money on the glaringly obvious problem in attack. Shaun Derry, Clint Hill and Leon Clarke have arrived on free transfers. Damion Stewart has moved to Bristol City for an undisclosed fee, Dusko Tosic was not retained, Angelo Balanta and Matteo Alberti are out on loan for the whole season. Potential Stars: Faurlin must cope with expectation this season, few expected anything of him last year when he excelled. One of Heidar Helguson or Leon Clarke is going to have to shrug off their injuries and poor form of the last five years as Rangers need somebody to lead the line. Paddy Kenny and Bradley Orr look good signings. Twitter verdict:10th. Two, possibly three, players short of a promotable side. Lacking sufficient firepower to succeed.
Leicester City 16/1 Last Season: LFW said: I don’t expect Leicester to tear up any trees in this league, and their signings this summer seemed to be focus on making them tough and hard to beat rather than on ripping into the division and going for two straight promotions. That said they are a long, long way from being the worst team in this league and should be able to put a good ten or more sides below them in the table. I expect a finish somewhere in the lower top half of the side. Manager Survival Chances Nigel Pearson 6/10 Likely Star Player Matty Fryatt Verdict 10th. Somewhere around tenth to twelfth. What actually happened?5th. LFW underestimated the Foxes who were unfortunate to lose in the play off semi finals to Cardiff – a game decided by a truly awful penalty from Yann Kermorgant in the shoot out. Leicester were a team very much in the model of their manager Nigel Pearson – steady, solid, not particularly exciting, very effective. A strong spine of Hobbs and Brown at centre half, Wellens in the middle of midfield and Howard, Waghorn and Fryatt in attack laid a platform for a fine first season back at this level. Manager A survival rating of six reflected more on chairman Milan Mandaric’s famed impatience with managers more than Nigel Pearson’s standing in Leicestershire. After guiding the Foxes to promotion Pearson almost repeated the trick at the higher level and ultimately it’s the manager who has decided to leave rather than be shown the door – Pearson joined Hull City last week after Mandaric persistently refused to loosen the Walkers Stadium purse strings. Star Man In a team of few star individuals Matty Fryatt looked like he may finally start scoring regularly at this level after years of threats until injury curtailed his season early just after the winter period. In the end it was centre half Jack Hobbs, a former Liverpool trainee, and midfielder Andy King who took the honours at the club’s Player of the Year awards.
Next season LFW Says: With Pearson gone and Paulo Sousa the rumoured replacement I can’t imagine free flowing football and high scoring entertainment will be on offer too often next season. Expect them to concede seldomly, score rarely, and finish in and around the top six. The Manager: Paulo Sousa has become something of an enigma since moving into management in this country with QPR 18 months ago. The Portuguese heritage and stylish looks create an image that is fallen for by chairmen and fans alike who look forward to an attractive, continental style of football when he arrives. What follows is far from that. Sousa works under the principal that if you don’t concede, you don’t lose, and scoring yourself is merely an afterthought. He has mustered more than 20 goalless draws as a manager in this country in a season and a half and Swansea scored just 40 goals last season, missing out on the play offs on the last day by drawing 0-0 against a Doncaster side with nothing to play for. The way he was treated at QPR was abysmal and reflected very badly on certain board members and supporters, but he was given a very fair crack of the whip at Swansea and produced a dull, boring side before walking out. Survival chances 6/10. Ins and Outs: Tom Kennedy is the only permanent signing from Rochdale, Miguel Vitor has come on loan from Benfica. There have been plenty of outgoings – Wayne Brown (Preston), James Wesolowski (Peterborough), Billy Kee (Torquay), Astrit Ajdarevic (Orebo), Alex Cisak (Accrington), Nolberto Solano (Hull) and the infamous Kermorgant (Arles) have all departed. Chris Powell and Stephen Clemence have retired, levi Porter and Carl Pentney have been released. Potential Stars: Former Liverpool centre half Jack Hobbs was the play of the year last year and must step up further after the departure of Wayne Brown. Verdict: 5th. Boring but effective, Leicester will surely make the play offs in a very weak league.
Ipswich Town 18/1 Last Season: LFW said: At the moment Ipswich don’t look a good deal better than they were last season, in fact with Rhodes, Lisbie and Clarke gone and Counago potentially following it could easily be argued they look worse. However they now have an inspirational manager in charge and I very much doubt their transfer window activity is done yet. I just feel that after 18 months stagnating with Magilton the Keane factor will really shoot them up the table this season and a top six finish is highly likely. Personally I think Keane will take Ipswich to the Premiership within the next two years, and then fall apart again when the defeats start stacking up. Manager Survival Chances Roy Keane 7/10 Likely Star Player Jon Stead Verdict 4th. Play offs.
What actually happened? 15th. Ipswich were awful. They failed to win any of their first 15 matches leaving them rock bottom and how Roy Keane stayed in a job I will never know. He made one terrible decision in the transfer market after another – none more ridiculous than his sale of Jordan Rhodes to Huddersfield on the cheap and subsequent purchase of Tamas Priskin for £1.6m in his place. They rallied somewhat in the second half of the season but the level of performance and the final league position with the players and finance at Keane’s disposal was criminal. Manager Anybody else would have been sacked in October last season without a shadow of a doubt and Ipswich have certainly sacked managers for a lot less. Ipswich, unlike many in this league, actually had a transfer budget to spend last summer and Keane may as well have withdrawn it all in ten pound notes and burnt it for the good he did with it. The Priskin deal was the most laughable, but it certainly wasn’t the only eyebrow raiser – crusty old Colin Healy for £75,000, Damien Delaney for £750,000. It seemed Keane was more worried about getting some Irishmen in the team than actually strengthening it and he did a thoroughly abysmal job, punctuating his own embarrassing failure by chastising journalists who dared to leave the phones on in press conferences or ask him if he felt his position was still tenable after another defeat. “Ooh don’t mess with Keano” people chortled as he took his own inadequacies out on another trainee reporter half his age. Why not? The man’s an idiot. Star Man Centre half Gareth McAuley won the club’s player of the year award in a season where the club’s top goal scorer, Jon Walters, finished on a pathetic eight.
Next season LFW Says: Keane himself said at the end of last season that Ipswich were five quality players away from being competitive at the top end of the division this season. Since then he has spent £75,000 on an ageing Mark Kennedy and pissed around for several weeks trying to sign Sunderland’s unwanted goalkeeper Martin Fulop. Add to that the sheer weight of departures from Portman Road this summer, which could yet include Jon Walters if rumours are to be believed, and it’s hard to conclude that Town are any better off than they were last season. I think they will improve slightly, simply because they’d have to be very unlucky to go on another 15 game winless run, but I cannot see them in the top half of the table without some serious additions over the next month. The Manager: Keane was a fabulous player, and he played for Sir Alex Ferguson. Now in the strange world of English football this apparently makes him a good manager by default. If Bryan Robson can trick five different clubs into employing him then Keane has plenty of mileage left in him yet. He did a great job with Sunderland in his first job, taking over a club in crisis and leading t straight back to the Premiership but once there he spent the thick end of £50m and still almost relegated them, then had a bit of a breakdown when things didn’t improve a season later. At Ipswich he continues to live off his reputation as a player. His signings, results and performances have been consistently dreadful and it has been another frustrating summer so far. Surely owner Marcus Evans will not be as patient again if this term if things go badly again. Survival chances – 4/10. Ins and Outs: Mark Kennedy (75k) is the only addition so far but at the time of writing it seems Martin Fulop will be arriving from Sunderland. Kevin Lisbie has been loaned to Millwall, Pim Balkestein to Brentford, Liam Trotter and Alex Bruce have been sold to Millwall and Leeds respectively. Ben Thatcher and Richard Wright were released at the end of the season. Potential Stars: Town could yet be saved by Connor Wickham. The giant 17 year old has the body, touch and footballing ability of a man ten years his senior and is being courted by the entire Premiership. With no newcomers this summer Keane may well be forced to sling him in from the start and having criminally allowed Jordan Rhodes to leave on the cheap that might be no bad thing. Fulop would be a good signing in goal if they can get it tied up. Verdict: 15th. Another season of underachievement punctuated by a change of manager is my guess. Keane has apparently been impressed by the pre-season performances of Tamas Priskin, although he is yet to score a goal this summer, and that really does say it all.
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