| Will 50 points mean safety? Prediction competition 09:32 - Mar 3 with 16661 views | Tonto |
Convention states that 50 points means safety in the championship. But with 11 games to go and the current form of the bottom half, that may not be enough?
So for sh1ts and giggles (no prizes), how many points is do you think the 3rd from bottom team will have when they get relegated.
I'm going for 52 | |
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| Will 50 points mean safety? Prediction competition on 09:37 - Mar 3 with 9900 views | Hunterhoop |
Isn’t the question how many you need for survival, so 1 more than whoever is 3rd bottom? | | | |
| Will 50 points mean safety? Prediction competition on 09:38 - Mar 3 with 9870 views | The_Beast1976 |
I reckon 51 | | | |
| Will 50 points mean safety? Prediction competition on 09:42 - Mar 3 with 9852 views | Toast_R |
Wednesday is key, if QPR can somehow beat West Brom, I think we'll be 3 points clear. WBA are in good form though.
48 Points I reckon. | | | |
| Will 50 points mean safety? Prediction competition on 09:54 - Mar 3 with 9778 views | Tonto |
Technically yes. But also a very short and boring thread. Was just trying a more interesting approach | |
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| Will 50 points mean safety? Prediction competition on 10:09 - Mar 3 with 9684 views | TomS |
Yes, I think 50 will be enough, as per usual. I reckon 49 may well prove to be the third worst total this season.
Not everyone on 38/39 points at the moment will get an average of a point a game between now and the end of the campaign. A few teams have just been dragged into a relegation dogfight who probably had been planning their holidays in Ibiza. | | | |
| Will 50 points mean safety? Prediction competition on 10:23 - Mar 3 with 9614 views | T_Block |
51.
Key games beat shelf Wednesday-6 point gap will then be too much for them.
Beat Middlesborough -they know they cannot make the play-offs
Beat Birmingham.
Avoid injuries to the defence.
That's where we have most improved | | | |
| Will 50 points mean safety? Prediction competition on 10:35 - Mar 3 with 9538 views | QPROslo |
For a sh16 and a giggle I go 51 as well. | | | |
| Will 50 points mean safety? Prediction competition on 10:40 - Mar 3 with 9504 views | hantssi |
I got us between 51 and 47, finishing 16th and 19th.
Don’t forget teams have to play each other so will have to drop points. | | | |
| Will 50 points mean safety? Prediction competition on 12:36 - Mar 3 with 9325 views | Hunterhoop |
Eh? No, Tonto. It’s the same question and same depth of debate. It’s just whether you’re focusing on 21st or 22nd.
Your thread title is “Will 50 points mean safety” but then you asked what points total will you go down on. Was just highlighting they are not the same.
Looking at survival, 21st, the maths currently indicates you’ll need 51 points, or hope you survive on GD. The current run rate of 22nd place, relegation is 50 points for the season.
However, the form of the last 5 games for those near the bottom is actually better that their season run rate (us, Wed, Huddersfield, Millwall, Stoke…), so it *could* be higher. You could very conceivably need 52 to survive.
If one or two sides starts losing all their 6 pointers it might be lower (watch out for Plymouth, Blackburn and Millwall these next two rounds), but if everyone continues beating each other, and collecting wins every other game, it will be higher.
If you think 48 or 49 will keep you up, whilst you might be right, the maths doesn’t indicate you will be. | | | |
| Will 50 points mean safety? Prediction competition on 14:07 - Mar 3 with 9086 views | kensalriser |
The bar is higher than normal now, but I'm not convinced it'll remain there. I think 48 will see you relegated, 49 might well be enough. Not just about points of course, it's not impossible that five of the bottom six will all finish with the same number of points.
Anyone still think someone's going to stay up with 45? | |
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| Will 50 points mean safety? Prediction competition on 14:17 - Mar 3 with 9045 views | saxbend |
I think that the minimum needed to survive will be 50 this season. It's usually a bit less, but Wednesday are doing as well as we are, Huddersfield too, and Millwall and Stoke have both picked up a couple of wins, as have Birmingham and Blackburn. I can see every one of those teams including ourselves getting at least 11 points from the remaining 11 games, and some, likely including Wednesday will get a fair few more. It's not that unlikely for a team to go down with 52 points this season.
I can see us getting another 14-18. Fingers crossed that will be enough. | | | |
| Will 50 points mean safety? Prediction competition on 14:32 - Mar 3 with 8953 views | Stanisgod |
52 | |
| It's being so happy that keeps me going. |
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| Will 50 points mean safety? Prediction competition on 14:52 - Mar 3 with 8904 views | loftus77 |
I always think Peterborough in 2013 - 54 points and relegated- shudder...
And the way everyone is winning its not impossible that it could be this again.
As already outlined, the Championship survival line is usually in the 47-52pts zone. So I'll say 52pts to survive this season.
And the pessimist in me still insists that, despite yesterday, we are sadly very unlikely to. Has a team historically spent so much time (5 months+?) in the bottom 3 and then gone on to stay up? Very rare, which only serves to show what a remarkable achievement avoiding relegation would still be for us. [Post edited 3 Mar 14:53]
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| Will 50 points mean safety? Prediction competition on 15:00 - Mar 3 with 8874 views | Maggsinho |
We’ve taken 17 points in the last eight games, repeat that over the next eight and it puts us on 55 with three games to spare | | | |
| Will 50 points mean safety? Prediction competition on 15:40 - Mar 3 with 8783 views | hantssi |
Won’t happen, they’ve got to play each other plus top sides so will inevitably drop points.
Think 48 will be enough but think we need 50+ just to be sure. | | | |
| Will 50 points mean safety? Prediction competition on 15:47 - Mar 3 with 8736 views | davman |
Gonna go lower - 48. The teams at the bottom have found some crazy form, but the mid table ones are dropping.
Blackburn and Plymuff the ones to watch. Stoke and Millwall, despite their recent wins remain poor teams and I was genuinely unimpressed by Bristol City. I mean we know how Dickie hides when the going gets a little tough and he's been their player of the season so far.
But let's not get too carried away with our lot - remember what happened last time we won three in a row... [Post edited 3 Mar 20:41]
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| Will 50 points mean safety? Prediction competition on 16:33 - Mar 3 with 8627 views | Headington |
I think we'll do it but will need to get over 50 points.
Agree that Birmingham and Sheffield Wed at home are crucial games to win (or at least not lose) , but given our away form at present it may be the matches at Swansea, Sunderland and Plymouth that turn out to be key. | | | |
| Will 50 points mean safety? Prediction competition on 18:01 - Mar 3 with 8508 views | hopekillsyou |
Since Marti took over our record ( in the league) is as follows:
Home W4, D4,L3 ; 11 games, 16 pts ( = 1.45 pts per game)
Away W4, D2, L4; 10 games, 14 pts ( = 1.4 pts per game)
So averaging out at 1.428 pts per game.
If we’d averaged that from the beginning of the season ; ie 35 games so far, we would have had 50 points ( ok 49.98…) . Probably 10th in the table, just a few points off the play offs.
More to the point, if we maintain this average of 1.428 pts per game, we should end up with 53 or 54 points at the end of the season, which I guess would mean not only safety but a reasonably respectable 16th or 17th ( as a reminder last season we ended up 20th with 50 pts). | | | |
| Will 50 points mean safety? Prediction competition on 18:32 - Mar 3 with 8420 views | daveB |
We need to get to 50 points as quickly as possible imo, preferably before the last 2 games, do that and I think we'll stay up but results down the bottom have been mad recently | | | |
| Will 50 points mean safety? Prediction competition on 19:01 - Mar 3 with 8324 views | kensalriser |
If you think it's very unlikely that we'll stay up, you can get odds of 9/4 on relegation. [Post edited 3 Mar 19:01]
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| Will 50 points mean safety? Prediction competition on 19:44 - Mar 3 with 8211 views | mart_Goblin |
Yes the maths are suggesting 52-54 points which is crazy | | | |
| Will 50 points mean safety? Prediction competition on 21:24 - Mar 3 with 8040 views | CamberleyR |
Just done it and had Sheff Wed and Stoke going down with Rotherham. Had us 18th on 51 points.
Stoke third bottom on 47 points, Millwall fourth bottom on GD. [Post edited 3 Mar 21:26]
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