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An Australian professor of Data Analytics from Griffith University who predicted Trump’s first win, the Australian Federal Election(when all the polls said the opposite) and Brexit has called it - Trump will be re-elected for another 4 years. You heard it here first.
The election coverage on CNN is quite good. Their political bias aside, they have 2 guys who go through each of the maps and break down voting on a county by county level, often comparing 2020 against 2016 and providing other useful insight.... one of the map guys (John king) is an absolute wizard and is always the MVP of election nite in us
The pollsters need to have a good look at the models they have been using. Last time out, they didn't give enough credence to the votes of the non College degree voters. It seems they didn't re-weight the models any where near sufficiently.
It's going to boil down to whether the postal votes are as heavily biased towards Biden as has been predicted. If that is the case, Biden will probably take Wisconsin and Michigan which should push him over the line.
Even so, it's a lot closer than most pollsters predicted.
"Travel is fatal to prejudice, bigotry and narrow-mindedness, and many of our people need it sorely on these accounts. Broad, wholesome, charitable views of men and things cannot be acquired by vegetating in one little corner of the Earth all one's lifetime." (Mark Twain)
Find me on twitter @derbyhoop and now on Bluesky
Looking likely that Biden will win narrow victories in Michigan/Wisconsin. However probably won't be finalized for a while as I believe it takes Nevada a few days to declare. Unless he manages to scrape a win elsewhere.
Nevada - Friday likely Michigan - ditto Wisconsin - partial recount likely Georgia - one or two days N. Carolina - accepting posted ballots until 12 Nov
"The opposite of love, after all, is not hate, but indifference."
It would be nice if this happens, especially after everything the Republicans have done to stop Pennsylvania from processing the ballots before election day.
Trump declares votes counted after the polls close as "Fraud", DeJoy Slows the delivery of mail down and removes hundreds of post boxes (along with not allowing processing of mail in ballots before election day), all done specifically to nobble Pennsylvania. The whole thing stinks so how sweet it would be if Biden wins without Pennsylvania and all their cheating was for nothing.
But Cameron didn't win that Election with marginal voters though? In fact there was actually a small swing from Con to Lab of just over 1%. The tories won 8 seats from Lab, and Lab won 10 seats from the Tories.
But the Tories took 27 seat from the Liberal heartland of the Lib Dems who deserted them for Cameron, mostly in the South West. So what you've said there doesn't really ring true
Which in part lays the problem for polling in the US. You've got to think of it like having 52 constituencies - you can poll nationally to the margin of error but developing robust samples for individual states is v difficult
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