| Safety does not look assured to me 16:59 - Mar 23 with 27607 views | Jacandme |
There seems a concerning sigh of relief has been breathed around the club, but looking at the table I am not as convinced as everybody seems to be. I hope we are not relaxing too soon.
Newcastle and Sunderland have a game in hand over us. they win it and they are 7/8pts behind with 7 to play.
we have Leicester away, West Ham away, Man City home, Liverpool home, Chelsea home, Stoke away and Newcastle away.
we will be underdogs for every single one of those games.
Someone convince me I should be as relaxed as others... | | | |  |
| Safety does not look assured to me on 18:22 - Mar 23 with 2230 views | Jacandme |
I don't think anybody WANTS to worry, and I truly hope nobody at the club is planning on having a relaxing end to the season as that is the exact attitude that will cost us.
I just cannot understand how anybody can say with any sense of certainly that Palace cannot gain 3 points on us, Norwich cannot gain 9 points on us and Sunderland cannot gain potentially 8 points on us with 7 games to go in one of our hardest run ins we have ever had. That is a total that can be gained in 3 games. Especially at this time of the season. Ask Leicester. | | | |
| Safety does not look assured to me on 18:25 - Mar 23 with 2220 views | monmouth |
That's ok you just keep on worrying.
No one else should be. | |
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| Safety does not look assured to me on 18:31 - Mar 23 with 2205 views | Clinton |
We were within a goal of Spurs away. Beat the Arsenal. On that form we get a few points from the remaining games and guaranteed safety. If we lose the last 7 on the bounce we deserve to go down, but we might still get away with it. Relax. | |
| If you can fill the unforgiving minute.
With sixty seconds' worth of distance run,
Yours is the Earth and everything that's in it,
And - which is more - you'll be a Man, my son! |
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| Safety does not look assured to me on 18:32 - Mar 23 with 2201 views | jasper_T |
We've played worse against the "bad" teams in the league this season than the "good" ones. A hard run-in is ideal. | | | |
| Safety does not look assured to me on 18:37 - Mar 23 with 2195 views | Jacandme |
It feels like I am the only one who has been watching this league over the years. This stuff happens regularly. You don't even have to look back more than 12 months to find an even more ''unlikelier'' scenario. End of March Leicester were bottom, 7 points behind 17th place with 9 games to go. They finished 6 points clear in 14th.
The year before, Sunderland were 7 points from 17th place with 9 games to go. They then went on a run beating Man United and Chelsea away and finishing 5 points clear in 14th.
West Ham, Wigan, Fulham, WBA all had similar survival stories and all went on similar runs over the years. So why is it so unthinkable that Sunderland will this season? | | | |
| Safety does not look assured to me on 18:39 - Mar 23 with 2187 views | Jacandme |
We will agree to disagree then. I am still not convinced. | | | |
| Safety does not look assured to me on 18:42 - Mar 23 with 2168 views | monmouth |
OK one last try.
Read very slowly:
Two-of-them-have-to-do-it-plus-we-have-to-get-no-more-points.
Now tell me about all the times that has happened.
I think we will finish above WBA, Watford and Palarse, as well as those hapless bottom three. But then, see, I'm not a doom monger that thinks a ten point lead looking down is more frightening than a one point deficit looking up. | |
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| Safety does not look assured to me on 18:43 - Mar 23 with 2166 views | dgt73 |
You're are right. People must be barking if they think we're safe.
We have an extremely difficult run in even Newcastle away.
In saying that im sure we'll surprise a team or two and get at least 40 pts, but you are right we ain't safe yet. | |
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| Safety does not look assured to me on 18:50 - Mar 23 with 2147 views | trampie |
The chances of the Swans going down are now big odds against, Swans may already have enough points on the board to stay up, looking at Swans previous seasons in the Prem Swans current points total would have been good enough to stay up the last 2 seasons and Swans first 2 seasons in the Prem 36pts would have put them equal with teams that went down in the last relegation spot [18th].
It is possible mind that the Swans would need just a couple more points due to Villa losing most weeks, although having said that Norwich, Sunderland and Newcastle points per game so far this season is pretty week and they have all played Villa at least once all ready.
Swans although possible underdogs in all their remaining games would probably be odds on to win one remaining game if such a market existed [people that don't understand probability or betting might not understand that a team that might be underdogs in every game over a lot of games would probably be odds on to win one game over such a long sequence of matches although individually they might be underdogs for every single game] , Swans would be massive odds on to get at least a couple of points [say 2 pts out of a possible 21] and that would almost certainly be enough if the Swans current total proves to be not quite enough.
It would take not just one current poor relegation threatened team to go on a run to relegate Swansea but at least two of them, two out of Norwich, Sunderland and Newcastle would have to go on very good runs, Palace currently 3pts behind the Swans with a game in hand would have to take the Swans also and Watford 1 pt ahead, B'mouth 2 pts ahead and WBA 3pts ahead would all have to stay ahead of the Swans also for Swansea to go down and the Swans would have to lose virtually all their remaining games also.
Some of relegation threatened teams still have to play each other making it difficult for a few of them to go on runs, draws between them considering how far behind Swansea some of them are might not be good results for them.
It will be nice if and when the Swans become mathematically safe, but there is no need for fans to panic at this point in time especially compared to where we were just a few weeks and months ago.
Although the Swans cant be complacent and relax until mathematically safe, Swans need to treat every game as vital [and they are vital games] until safety is guaranteed. [Post edited 23 Mar 2016 18:55]
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| Safety does not look assured to me on 19:07 - Mar 23 with 2114 views | JackFish |
How many teams went down with 36+ points in those seasons out of interest? I'm guessing not many. That's assuming we lose the lot we have left which isn't very likely given that we've been in pretty good form since Monk was sacked. | | | |
| Safety does not look assured to me on 19:13 - Mar 23 with 2100 views | Glyn1 |
It's possible that we might lose all of our next seven matches, but it's never happened to us before, and even then we could still stay up.
And although we have a tough fixture list so have some of the others, such as Crystal Palace:
West Ham away
Norwich home
Arsenal away
Man Utd away
Everton home
Watford home
Newcastle away
All of those teams have something to play from apart from Watford and Everton, so they ain't easy. And the return of Pardew to Newcastle could be very interesting. [Post edited 23 Mar 2016 19:15]
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| Safety does not look assured to me on 19:17 - Mar 23 with 2086 views | Lord_Bony |
The past 4 seasons 37 points have been enough to avoid relegation.
I can t see this season being different so just one more point maybe two will be enough.. | |
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| Safety does not look assured to me on 19:19 - Mar 23 with 2083 views | monmouth |
If i was the worrying kind, I think I'd actually be more worried about next season than this one.
If people are still seriously fretting now, today, it does make me wonder when they actually enjoy the season. Whan we are mathematically safe? Even last season we only had 40 points a week ago. Watching football must be a troublesome experience for some.
Give me a call when we are 4th from bottom and the third from bottom team is within 3 points, then I'll join in. Until then, where's my deck chair....and another cuban breeze please gretchen.. | |
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| Safety does not look assured to me on 19:21 - Mar 23 with 2078 views | dgt73 |
Worried about next season pmsl | |
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| Safety does not look assured to me on 19:22 - Mar 23 with 2073 views | monmouth |
Are you? I'm not. | |
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| Safety does not look assured to me on 19:23 - Mar 23 with 1943 views | dgt73 |
Are you what ? | |
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| Safety does not look assured to me on 19:24 - Mar 23 with 1938 views | monmouth |
Are you a little green cabbage? | |
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| Safety does not look assured to me on 19:24 - Mar 23 with 1934 views | dgt73 |
No but I think you are | |
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| Safety does not look assured to me on 19:25 - Mar 23 with 1927 views | monmouth |
You don't think. | |
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| Safety does not look assured to me on 19:26 - Mar 23 with 1924 views | trampie |
It would not just be just a case of one relegation threatened team going on a run that often happens, it possibly happens most seasons actually, but at least two would need to go on runs or at least increasing their current points per game ratio to overtake Swansea who would have to more or less collapse.
Obviously its not impossible for Swansea to be relegated but 33-1 against the Swans being relegated is about right at this point [even if they did go down from here, the current odds are probably about right and a fair reflection of the Swans chances of staying up at this point in time]. | |
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| Safety does not look assured to me on 19:26 - Mar 23 with 1925 views | dgt73 |
I think you're a thicko definitely | |
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| Safety does not look assured to me on 19:28 - Mar 23 with 1920 views | hammy |
Forget about the Swans being caught by the bottom teams, I think Arsenal should be worried ... win our remaining 7 games and we're on 57 points (a couple ahead of Arsenal currently).
We're not mathematically safe but we're in a great position to be in the PL next season. Probably one of Norwich, Sunderland, Norwich will get enough points to overtake Palace and I think it will 2 out of those 4 that go down with Villa. | |
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| Safety does not look assured to me on 19:35 - Mar 23 with 1898 views | LeonisGod |
Even in our crappiest of crap times this season we were doing better than picking up 0 points in 7 games. Newcastle alone is very winnable, and just that would probsbly guarantee safety. We have a good record there plus they are awful. And we seem to raise our game against the 'bigger' teams, so I expect we'll be competitive agsinst Man C and Chelski.
We're not safe yet, but we're as close as we could be without actually being safe. | | | |
| Safety does not look assured to me on 19:43 - Mar 23 with 1861 views | sherpajacob |
I think we'll get something at Leicester.
Tottenham, arsenal and man Utd haven't doubled us this season. | |
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