QPR bring their bizarrely effective brand of possession-less football back to Loftus Road on Saturday to face a Preston team that’s made something of an art of doing plenty with not a lot in recent years, particularly against Rangers.
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Ah yes, Preston North End. Like a letter from HMRC, on your birthday. An Evri delivery left in your wheelie bin "for safe keeping”, on bin day. Possession of the remote control being seized by an elderly relative, just before the four-hour Christmas Day special Call The Midwife. Two hours spent stranded on a GWR train with only Fosters on the buffet trolley for which they compensate you £7.80, six weeks after it happened. A trip to the surgery for your physical and the doctor takes a rectal probe the size of the new Picadilly Line trains out of his drawer, and plugs it in at the mains.
For QPR, for so long, this game was the Championship’s ultimate chore. Take what’s supposed to be your most enjoyable day of the week, your escapism from whatever it is that grinds your gears Monday to Friday, and turn it into another day at work.
Eight times over four seasons upon our return to this level we failed to beat North End, ten without a win over six years if you take out the Ebere Eze-inspired double of 2019/20. It wasn’t just the losing, though. QPR lose a lot, we’re used to it, it all blends into one after a while. It was the sheer, galling, eye-rolling, infuriating nature of it all.
Without even looking the games up I can tell how they went. Preston take the lead. Daniel Johnson having the game of his life, QPR acting like they’d never seen or heard of him before. Time wasting, from the tenth minute, by the goalkeeper, and everybody else. A referee pursued around, by a gang, every decision debated by a three-man committee. Alex Neil deciding he fancied a big of a midgame team talk, and so the players all gather by the touchline, and we just stop the game for that and allow it to happen. Two minutes of added time at the end of the first half. Ben Pearson running an-absolute-mok – kicking our players, baiting the referee, diving about, feigning injury. A boy who looks like he could have a miserable time at Cadbury World, suddenly in his element. QPR fall for every trick in every book. Every reaction Ben wants, we give him. Like he's in an arcade, but it’s an arcade where you never lose. Every button Ben presses pays out. Except the buttons are our balls, and he’s not pressing them he’s striking them very firmly, with a meat tenderiser. We were day out at Alton Towers for Ben Pearson. Four minutes of added time at the end of the second half.
And I go home and go out into the garden, in the night time, with a baseball bat, and spend ten minutes noisily demolishing our shed and all that lies within, and I’m the "crazy” one who "needs to get things in perspective”.
Urgh, hateful experiences.
A thought occurred to me during last week’s Bristol City match though – a game in which we had one shot on target, from the halfway line, and took a point with 30% possession – that we, might, in fact, be the Championship shithouses now. Don’t get me wrong, we’re not very good at it – at one point at Ashton Gate Jimmy Dunne did the sitting down "injured” thing so we could come to the touchline and have a conflab with the manager, but got up and revealed he was fine after all (miracle!!) too quickly which meant City could (and indeed did) restart the game while our entire team was still in the technical area - but we’re giving it a fair old go. Norwich, who we beat in a gale force wind with 37% of the ball in a game where our goalkeeper was booked for time wasting in the first half, seem to have suffered a complete head loss – an FA charge for Angus Gunn this week for "being a bit of a knob” to go with the four-match ban already metered out to Kenny McLean for "being a lot of a knob”.
There has been much talk about how, exactly, QPR have turned their results around so successfully, while apparently playing a lot worse – or certainly a less attractive style of football – than they were previously. The best display in this run actually came at Watford, one of the games Rangers didn’t win although only because they missed five highly presentable chances to score. Even at Vicarage Road they only had 37% of the ball to go with 32% against Norwich and Cardiff, 37% against Oxford, 31% at Bristol, 25% against Burnley and so on.
Possession for possession’s sake is one of the great blights of modern football - every bit as boring to watch as Tony Pulis’ wheeled cannon football. QPR are often at their most tedious when dominating the ball in their own half, backwards and sidwaysing their way into one home defeat after another. They were far better than Norwich and deserved their win in what was a fairly exhilarating game. Nevertheless, the feeling persists that this cannot possibly be how this Cruyffian disciple manager wants his team to play. The pass completion stats at Bristol City were laughable - Harrison Ashby 57% completion, Varane 66%, Field 62%, Smyth 30%, Andersen 53%, Saito 44%. Players, essentially, giving the ball to the opposition every other time they have it, or worse. Only one Bristol City player completed at less than 75%, for comparison.
With the injuries we’ve had down the spine of the team, and our ongoing struggles with the schedule when the Championship presents us with a three-game week, the general consensus is we’re just doing whatever we can, and need to do, to climb out of the relegation mire. The summer recruitment has left us with a squad of players without strikers, without goals, and with players who cannot pass the football to each other. So, rather than try, we have very sensibly and pragmatically decided to lean back on what strengths this squad does have – a good goalkeeper, an excellent collection of centre backs (not you, Fox), a whole-hearted and effective right back, and defensive central midfielders who can sit in front of a back line and protect it well. One of Cifuentes’ best traits since he got here is adapting to the situation he finds himself in. That Nardi – Dunne, Cook, Morrison/Clarke-Salter – Varane, Field combination is the best bit of the team, so you play to your strengths. QPR have given up the most touches in their final third of anybody in the division this year, but it hasn’t translated into the most chances conceded.
Perhaps we’re wrong and this is how the manager wants to play. Marti Cifuentes has won 14 league games across his whole time here and in only three of those have we had more of the ball than the opponent – Stoke who played for most of the second half with ten men, Rotherham who were relegated, and Birmingham who were also relegated. By way of comparison, two-thirds of Warbs' wins (36/54) came with 50+% possession (very simple Nick, take care of the football).
I guess we’ll know a bit more when we see what they prioritise in the forthcoming January transfer window. For me we’re desperately light up front, both of goalscorers and of strikers capable of holding the ball up so we can get up the field in effective possession – a chronic problem last week at City where Dickie and McNally just crawled all over the top of lone forward Rayan Kolli. That’s a difficult, expensive, problem to fix, particularly at this time of year. We’re short of pace, quality, goals and final ball in the support ranks for that striker. We’ve got poor options in both full back spots, bar Jimmy Dunne, despite a summer spent largely signing full backs. And the ongoing chronic problem of not having a central midfielder who can take the ball on the turn from the defence and progress it forwards persists – this, perhaps, the biggest issue we’ve got with the ball. Jonathan Varane has been the big improver or late, and his assist last week for Paul Smyth speaks to that, but it’s his only assist so far and he’s yet to score – Andre Dozzell type numbers. Without at least some of those things it’s difficult to see how we break out and play a more attractive, ambitious, controlling style. When we tried it to start the season, we were woeful and bottom of the league.
For now, what of this Preston game? Just look at the near identical records. Preston have won four times, their joint lowest ever total at this point in a season. QPR have also won four, and set a club record wait for a first home win. Preston have drawn 11, the most in the Championship, with QPR close behind with ten. Last week’s win at Cardiff was PNE’s first in 15 away games, the Norwich and Oxford victories snapped QPR’s run of 11 without success at Loftus Road. They’ve both scored 21 goals, both conceded 27. Are we… the shithouses? Having watched Rangers and Oxford spend last week’s clash giving the ball back to each other so they could both high press and counterattack out of possession, are we about to watch two teams try to out game each other? What does that look like? Everybody feigning head injuries? A game spent entirely in group conference with the managers on the touchline? And what do we call it? El Shitico?
You watch, it’ll finish 4-3 now. A stone cold classic. And you’ll have me to thank. Consider it my gift to you this festive season.
Merry Christmas to both regular readers.
Links >>> Perryipheral Thoughts – Column >>> Draws, draws, draws – Oppo Profile >>> Blackstock wonder goal – History >>> Donohue in charge – Referee >>> Preston Official Website >>> Lancashire Telegraph — Local Press >>> From The Finney — Blog >>> Deepdale Digest — Blog >>> PNE Online — Forum
Team News: Although Zan Celar has now joined Karamoko Dembele on the long term injured list, there may be some light at the end of a troubling autumn tunnel for QPR’s fitness department. Michy Frey and Ilias Chair were both back on the bench at Bristol City last week and are likely to be joined imminently first by Jake Clarke-Salter and then Jack Colback as they return to training following their respective lay offs.
Preston have Sam Greenwood back in their attack after he missed last week’s draw with his parent club Leeds. Stefan Thordarson, who QPR wanted to sign in the summer, Villa loanee Kaine Kesler-Hayden, and Andrew Hughes (who’se missed the last two) are all doubtful for this game.
Elsewhere: There can be few bigger victims of their own success than Des Buckingham, dragging Oxford back to this level for the first time in 25 years through last year’s League One play-offs and then being sacked while outside the bottom three because they’re struggling to compete with one of the Championship’s lowest budgets. Gary Rowett is the safe pair of hands the U’s have turned to in their bid for survival but he might want to do that classic "watching brief” for his first game in charge which is at Elland Road against Red Bull Leeds.
Rowett’s old club Millwall are managerless again having gone through four bosses in 16 months – as many as they’d had for the previous 16 years. Alex Neil, Stephen Schumacher and Wycombe’s Matt Bloomfield are among the early favourites for that vacancy, and there’s plenty of breathing space on the league table for the Marxist Hunters to take their time over an appointment. For now they’re at home to high flying Blackburn who’ve won their last six in a row.
The third team to make a recent managerial change, Hull City, look to climb off the foot of the table with an early kick off against Swanselona. They may soon be joined on that merry-go-round by Sheff Wed, with Danny Rohl linked to Southampton and jobs back home in Germany, ahead of their home game with listless Stoke. Portsmouth v Frank Lampard’s Coventry makes up this Saturday’s clutch of lunchtime fixtures.
Four other games on Saturday afternoon includes Sheffield Red Stripe’s 2-0 win at Cardiff, Burnley’s tactically shrewd 0-0 draw at home to Watford, Wazza Rooney continuing to cling to his job at Plymouth as they host Middlesbrough, and Sunderland at home to Norwich. The weekend begins tonight with Luton v Derby, and ends on Sunday with West Brom v Bristol City.
Referee: Matt Donohue has dropped out of the Premier League list this season and been entirely on Championship duty so far. That includes his mishandling of Preston’s 0-0 draw at home to Blackburn in the Lancashire derby where he sent off Owen Beck and left PNE’s Milutin Osmajic on the field despite the Montenegrin taking a bite out of the Liverpool loanee’s shoulder. Ooooh, nice salty full back. Osmajic was retrospectively banned for eight matches. Details.
QPR: This is a clash of two teams with remarkably similar records. Preston are 4-11-6 from their 21 league games, QPR are 4-10-7 from theirs. No team in the league has drawn as many as these two. They’ve both scored 21 goals and conceded 27 for a -6 goal difference. Both come into this encounter on unbeaten runs of six, though Preston have five draws in their sequence and QPR three.
The R’s have posted 12 points from a possible 18 having only won ten from the first 45 available to them. They were five points adrift at the bottom of the table when the run started, they’re now five clear of the drop zone. A six match unbeaten run is their longest sequence without defeat since January/February 2022 under Mark Warburton. Scott Twine’s free kick at Bristol City last week ended a run of four consecutive clean sheets for Marti Cifuentes’ team who have kept shut outs in six of their last ten games having started the season with none from the first 14. QPR finally got a home win on the board against Norwich at the ninth time of asking (11th in all comps) – a club record start to a season without a win at Loftus Road. As the old saying goes, you wait all that time for one and then a second, at home to Oxford, comes along immediately. Rangers have now lost only one of the last five on this ground. Only Plymouth and Oxford have a lower xG across the season than QPR’s 20.49 mind.
Paul Smyth’s goal at Ashton Gate was his first in the league since a February 24 win at home to Rotherham, 33 league appearances ago (he did score one at Cambridge in the cup in that time). One of Smyth’s three goals for the R’s last season came in the 2-0 December win at Deepdale. No player in the Championship this season has won more duels than QPR’s Jimmy Dunne so far this season (170), whilst the defender also ranks third league-wide for clearances made (116).
Preston PNE have only lost six games this season – one fewer than Blackburn in fifth and the same as Watford in seventh. Despite this they’re 16th in the league and the pretty obvious reason for that is no team in the league has drawn as many as their 11. Four wins from the first 21 league games is the joint worst record in club history. They are nine points worse off than this time last year and have won only one of the last 11. The Lilywhites come into this game unbeaten in six, but five of those have been draws, and with one defeat in eight, a run that includes six ties. They were, to be fair, beating Leeds 1-0 into stoppage time last week before a heartbreaking own goal by Jack Whatmough denied them a win against the league leaders.
Away from home Paul Heckingbottom’s side have only won once in ten games, that 2-0 at Cardiff last time out. They have drawn five and lost four of the other nine. Prior to the victory in South Wales they were on a run of 14 Championship games without an away win – a sequence that included the 1-0 defeat here in April when Freddie Woodman gifted Lyndon Dykes the only goal of the game. Sam Greenwood and Milutin Osmajic are the top scorers here with six in all comps, Emil Riis is the top league scorer with five.
QPR won both meetings between the sides last year, 2-0 at Deepdale in December and 1-0 at Loftus Road in April. It was the R’s only double of the season. The last four meetings between the sides have all been won to nil, with QPR triumphing in three of those. Rangers have won six of their last ten meetings with Preston after a run of nine without a win home or away.
Prediction: This is the last game before we hand out Prediction League prizes from The Art of Football - sample the merch from our sponsor’s newly extended QPR collection here - for leading the league at Christmas. LongRanger has nipped in to lead outright with a game to go. Last year’s joint winners SimplyNico and WestonsuperR say...
Nico’s Call: "We continue our recovery, unbeaten in six games and fifth in the form table in the Championship, with this match against 1-1 draw specialists, Preston. Whilst we are difficult to score against, despite the seeming evidence to the contrary from the Cardiff, Norwich and Oxford games, we are generally not scoring more than one goal per game. The Preston forum has this down for a 1-1 draw and I do not see anything that upsets that view.”
Weston’s Call "I’ve always based my predictions, and for that matter, overall assessment of the team on recent performance rather than results. For this reason I am still concerned, 12 points from six matches is fantastic the way we played in our last two matches is not. First halves vs Oxford and Bristol City were really awful, I was at the Bristol match and could hardly comprehend how bad we were. Have a horrible feeling we will struggle to score and see Preston using their mastery of the ‘dark arts’ to eke out a narrow win.”
Nico’s Prediction: QPR 1-1 Preston. Scorer – Paul Smyth
WestonSuperR’s Prediction: QPR 0-1 Preston. No scorer.
LFW’s Prediction: QPR 1-1 Preston. Scorer – Steve Cook
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