Seven points adrift of safety with seven games left to play, surely QPR simply have to win their televised Sunday match against fourth bottom Wigan at Loftus Road.
Premier League >>> Sunday April 7, 2013 >>> Kick Off 4.10pm >>> Loftus Road, London, W12 >>> Live on Sky Sports 1
There can be few better teams for QPR to be facing this weekend than Wigan Athletic as they hunt for inspiration in the battle for survival. Seven points adrift and just seven games left of the campaign - QPR are in a dire position. It would be very easy to look at the situation and ask why a team that has only won four matches all season in 31 attempts will suddenly win at least that (and probably that wouldn’t even be enough now) again in the remaining seven? It would be easy to write the whole thing off now.
But this time last year people were writing off Wigan, asking why a team that had been so poor for so much of the season would suddenly turn it around. In the end they won seven of their last nine having only won four of their first 31 – and that run included games against Champions League chasing Man Utd, Arsenal and Newcastle which is far more difficult than the games QPR have remaining. Rangers have the added advantage of being able to haul other teams towards them if they do suddenly start to string wins together with games against not only seventeenth placed Wigan but also bottom club Reading to come.
However, there could also be few worse teams for Rangers to be facing this weekend. Not only is Wigan’s wing-back system – which frees up Shaun Maloney to support Arouna Kone in attack – absolutely ideally suited to exploit QPR’s weaknesses in defence but Wigan have shown a new found ruthlessness this season when facing a weak team that comes out to attack them – Reading, Southampton and Villa have all lost on their own ground to Wigan this term without scoring a goal between them and conceding eight at the other end. And, with five wins from their last six games, the Latics are in excellent form approaching this match.
While Roberto Martinez’s team clearly demonstrate the value of not giving up too soon, QPR must beware the dangers of clinging onto false hope for too long. Win on Sunday, follow it up with another victory against Stoke then win at Reading and it’s still all to play for. But lose here and fail to win at Everton next week and it’s probably time to concede defeat.
That may sound overly negative and defeatist, but it could be important when turning attention towards a probably Championship campaign next season. The second tier is a hellish thing, with a campaign the thick end of 50 games long once cup matches are taken into account, and as it stands QPR don’t look well set to enter it with any kind of serious bounce-back hope.
Sure, if Tony Fernandes and the board decide to swallow the financial hit, keep the team that QPR currently have together, and go all out to blitz it then the R’s would be title favourites. An attack boasting Loic Remy, Adel Taarabt, Junior Hoilett, Bobby Zamora, Andy Johnson, DJ Campbell and Jamie Mackie should be far too much for any side in a division where the second place team is currently fielding Alex Bruce as its lynchpin central midfielder. But Fernandes has admitted what everybody knew anyway on last night’s London Call In show that if relegation does happen then players will have to be sold.
QPR, like every relegated club, will face a frantic three months where they’re receiving daily offers for players they’d like to keep but can’t afford, while struggling to find anybody daft enough to offer the ones they’re desperate to be rid of a deal lucrative enough to tempt them away. In amongst that a competitive team for the second tier has to be fashioned and as you look down QPR’s squad list which currently includes 28 permanent professionals at the club, two loan players, and a staggering 12 men out on loan, it’s hard to see where that team is coming from.
It’s a relief to hear Tony Fernandes and manager Harry Redknapp starting to talk about next season in the second tier to be honest because Rangers will need to hit the ground running. Clubs like Middlesbrough, Derby, Birmingham and Leeds – who have all been Premier League clubs in the recent past – are already putting plans, managers, players and systems in place for next season. Only two of Hull, Watford, Bolton, Forest, Leicester, Palace and Brighton will be promoted leaving five others with talented squads for that level a year wiser and ready to go again – Bolton under Dougie Freedman and Forest under Billy Davies look particularly dangerous if they don’t manage it this time.
QPR don’t even know which manager will be taking charge of the colossal rebuilding job this squad will require if demoted. The suggestion today seems that it will still be Harry Redknapp, although our slippery leader does keep throwing up lines about “going our separate ways if they can’t afford it” which hints at a mutual consent split come May. If it is Harry then him saying “I know I should be preparing but I don’t even want to think about it” is rather concerning.
Win on Sunday and it could still, just about, all be irrelevant and academic. Lose, and Rangers must start to crack on in earnest with a much better plan for next season than they came up with for this.
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Team News: To follow.
Elsewhere: It’s a weekend that the television companies were no doubt hoping would decide the destination of the league title with Man Utd hosting Man City in the live game on Monday evening, but with that contest long since over it’s down at the bottom where the most intrigue lies. The early Saturday game sees Southampton travel to Reading where a win would all but see them safe, but defeat could bring bottom placed Reading back into the mix. The recent appointment of former Saints boss Nigel Adkins at the Madejski Stadium adds spice to that one. Aston Villa will watch on nervously before playing Stoke at 3pm and then of course there is QPR v Wigan on Sunday.
The two north east clubs continue to try and involve themselves in the scrap to avoid relegation. Sunderland look in a good deal more trouble than Newcastle (who host Fulham on Sunday) and Paulo Di Canio has a tough start to his life as a Premier League manager with his side visiting Chelsea on Sunday. Given Chelsea’s league form I certainly wouldn’t rule out an away win there.
In the quest for Champions League qualification Spurs went through a gruelling Europa League game on Thursday night during which Aaron Lennon, Gareth Bale and William Gallas all left the field nursing injuries which doesn’t bode well for a trip to Everton on Sunday live on ESPN. Arsenal can pile the pressure on by winning the day before at West Brom.
Norwich v Swansea and Liverpool v West Ham are dead rubbers.
Referee: The trend for appointing the same referee to both fixtures between teams in a season continues at Loftus Road this weekend with Phil Dowd in town for the visit of Wigan. Dowd was in charge when the sides met in the North West in December and has been to Loftus Road once since then for a 0-0 draw against Man City. He’s not a referee that has been overly kind to QPR down the years and you can read his full history with the R’s by clicking here.
QPR: The 2-2 draw at Wigan in December was the sixteenth and final match without a win to start Rangers’ season – a Premier League record that ended a week later with a long overdue 2-1 home win against Fulham. Sadly the R;s have only won three more league games since then and consecutive defeats against Villa and Fulham in the return fixture leave them in a grave situation. Rangers’ defensive record had been quite reasonable all things considered – and the 22 goals shipped at home is still one better than ninth placed Swansea – but they’re suddenly conceding more goals after opening up to try and win games. The upper Hoops have shipped six in their last two and 14 in their last six. The 3-1 win against Wigan on this ground last season brought to an end a run of nine Premier League games without a win, seven of which were lost.
Wigan: It’s certainly a time of the year that Wigan seem to relish. They survived in 2010/11 courtesy of four wins and three draws from their final nine fixtures – including a maximum six point haul from the last two matches – and then bettered that last year by winning seven of their final nine to stage an unlikely escape from the drop. We’re into that run of nine matches now, but Wigan have started early this time winning five of the last six in all competitions and three of their last four in the league. Away from home they have four wins to their name which is better than anybody from tenth down and the same as sixth placed Everton. Worryingly for QPR the Latics have had no problem travelling away to face fellow strugglers and coming away with a comfortable win – they triumphed 2-0 at Southampton, 3-0 at Aston Villa and 3-0 at Reading earlier in the season. Goals certainly haven’t been a problem of late – 13 scored in their last six games – and their overall total of 36 is better than the rest of the bottom five and one more than eleventh placed West Ham.
Prediction: Reigning Prediction League champion Nathan McAllister says…
“So here it is, that rare thing – a ‘must-win game’ that really is worthy of the name. Anything less than three points against a Wigan side that Rangers probably need to finish above if they are to survive will surely see any lingering hopes that the R’s might yet beat the drop extinguished for good. Even the less optimistic (or perhaps that should read ‘more realistic’) Rangers fans will have surely had this game down as a win, whether doing the BBC predictor or in attempting to chart a plausible path to safety for the R’s. However, now that the game has arrived, it’s not looking quite such a home banker.
“Wigan have won four times away from home in the Premier League this season – more than any other team outside the top half, and twice the number of victories that Rangers have managed at home. They have achieved three victorious 3-0 scorelines at three different Premier League grounds since Christmas - Villa, Reading and Everton in the FA Cup, the last of which was the beginning of the three match winning streak that Wigan are looking to extend at Loftus Road on Sunday. Lastly, but perhaps most significantly, Rangers have the misfortune of facing Wigan after the late March watershed, the moment when the Latics’ relegation form suddenly and miraculously turns into Champions League form. In 2010-11 Wigan were bottom of the league and five points from safety with nine games to go, but eventually finished three points clear of the bottom three after they managed 14 points from the last nine games. Incredibly they trumped that in 2011/12, when they went from the Premier League team with the worst record over the first 29 matches to the team with the best record bar none thereafter, finishing seven points clear of Bolton in 18th after winning seven of their last nine matches.
“Rangers, on the other hand, will surely be going into the game in much less confident mood following two consecutive, soul-destroying, 3-2 defeats – both games in which they scored twice and created numerous chances to score more, but were ultimately undone by shambolic defending. Last week I predicted that Rangers’ were not going to put us out of our misery just yet and that there would be a few more twists and turns before Rangers’ relegation is finally confirmed. I’ve still got a feeling that will be the case, but I am not confident about this fixture at all. That’s probably a good thing, since I have not correctly predicted a Rangers victory even once this season. QPR will surely defend better on Sunday than they have done in the previous two matches, but that will no doubt be accompanied by a less potent attacking display as Rangers have so rarely been able to strike the right balance between the two. Wigan have been better defensively on their travels (32 conceded at the DW compared to just 24 away from it) while Rangers have scored a lot more goals away (17) than at Loftus Road (11), both statistics that suggest that this will not be a particularly high-scoring game. So, it’s back to my boring default prediction I’m afraid.”
Result: QPR 1 Wigan 1
Scorer: Remy
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