| Second BREXIT Referendum 16:30 - Dec 21 with 2097 views | johnlangy |
Time to put your thinking cap on again ohl  .
In my 'Thank You Nigel Farage' thread I suggested that Reform are going to have a huge bearing on the result of the next General Election. This thread is about the thought that things could go the completely opposite way.
One thing we know for certain (there's not many times you can say that in politics) is that Reform, aka Nigel Farage, are not going to stand on a platform of holding a second Brexit referendum at the next GE. Kemi Badenoch is a brexiteer so that rules out the Torys, at least while she's the leader.
So what if Labour does ? When a second ref has been talked about before now the general consensus has been that it's too early, that Brexit has to be given time to see how it works. If Labour do offer a second ref at the next GE and they win again the referendum probably wouldn't happen till at least 2032. So that would mean sixteen years after the first one. No one could argue that that is not enough time to see if Brexit was working or not.
And what would be the result. As far as i'm aware every single poll that has been taken over the last few years on how people would vote in another ref has shown a substantial majority for rejoining (in May it was 55% wrong to leave with 31% saying it was right to leave). And that majority will only get bigger. In the first ref it was mostly older people who voted to leave while younger people voted to remain. And there's only one way that different demography is going to change.
Over the next few years we may get caught up in a Trade war if Trump does follow up on his ideas about tarrifs. So little old UK would be stuck between the USA and the EU in that battle. And Labour will be in the perfect position to use that as an argument to rejoin especially as they'll have been working with the EU for a few years at that time trying to improve the current Brexit deal.
Another side benefit to Labour, who are a very pro Union party, is that a rejoin vote may also see off Scotlands fight for Indy. Just a thought. |  | | |  |
| Second BREXIT Referendum on 16:50 - Dec 21 with 1189 views | Joesus_Of_Narbereth |
You’re forgetting the undeniable biological fact that the young people from 2016 will be nearly two decades older, they will have grown out of their student politics phase and matured into normal rational thinking human beings. |  |
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| Second BREXIT Referendum on 16:57 - Dec 21 with 1181 views | onehunglow |
Too long to read ! | |
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| Second BREXIT Referendum on 17:11 - Dec 21 with 1165 views | JACKMANANDBOY |
| Second BREXIT Referendum on 16:50 - Dec 21 by Joesus_Of_Narbereth |
You’re forgetting the undeniable biological fact that the young people from 2016 will be nearly two decades older, they will have grown out of their student politics phase and matured into normal rational thinking human beings. |
We have an ageing population, there are more older people now than in 2016. |  |
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| Second BREXIT Referendum on 17:15 - Dec 21 with 1149 views | johnlangy |
| Second BREXIT Referendum on 16:50 - Dec 21 by Joesus_Of_Narbereth |
You’re forgetting the undeniable biological fact that the young people from 2016 will be nearly two decades older, they will have grown out of their student politics phase and matured into normal rational thinking human beings. |
'normal rational thinking human beings'.
Of course. Which is why they'll vote to rejoin JON  | | | |
| Second BREXIT Referendum on 17:44 - Dec 21 with 1132 views | Whiterockin |
| Second BREXIT Referendum on 16:50 - Dec 21 by Joesus_Of_Narbereth |
You’re forgetting the undeniable biological fact that the young people from 2016 will be nearly two decades older, they will have grown out of their student politics phase and matured into normal rational thinking human beings. |
Is someone who has migrated to this country allowed to vote and if so would it impact the result. |  | | |
| Second BREXIT Referendum on 18:37 - Dec 21 with 1086 views | AnotherJohn |
Rejoining would not restore the old rebate, and would probably require agreement to join Schengen, participate in immigration "burden sharing", and in the longer term adopt the Euro. The UK would become a net contributor at a time of continuing EU enlargement with poorer countries joining, and the big two (Germany and France) less able to subsidise the beneficiary countries. There would be a requirement to be bound by the EU's new economic governance framework with its risk-based surveillance and enhanced enforcement regime, plus its mandatory requirement to implement the prescribed measures needed to "secure the green and digital transitions". That framework includes rules on markets, competition and public debt limits that may not be wholly congenial to a Labour government, including in areas such as the Fourth Railway Package, which appears incompatible with Labour's rail nationalisation plans. There would be heavy pressure to coordinate European defence, probably under a unified command. The fishermen would lose any prospect of getting a bigger share of agreed catches in the various regulated sectors. In the legal domain, we would sign up to the whole EU acquis communautaire, and again become a rule taker rather than a rule maker. Personally I do not think a return is a great idea at the present juncture. Many people on here probably think that all the above means nothing if they can avoid paying £6 for a holiday visa waiver. | | | |
| Second BREXIT Referendum on 21:20 - Dec 21 with 1012 views | SullutaCreturned |
| Second BREXIT Referendum on 16:50 - Dec 21 by Joesus_Of_Narbereth |
You’re forgetting the undeniable biological fact that the young people from 2016 will be nearly two decades older, they will have grown out of their student politics phase and matured into normal rational thinking human beings. |
It's something that Kilky always ignores, the young will get old and their thought processes will have changed.
Starmer has said there won't be a referendum, I suppose I'll have to believe him. Even so, the way Labour are going who knows who'll be in the hot seat after the next election.
Anyway, to apply for membership now we'd have to go through the process, could take years.
Lastly, people seem to be ignoring the wee fact that the EU itself has really quite large internal issues. | | | |
| Second BREXIT Referendum on 21:33 - Dec 21 with 991 views | Kilkennyjack |
| Second BREXIT Referendum on 16:50 - Dec 21 by Joesus_Of_Narbereth |
You’re forgetting the undeniable biological fact that the young people from 2016 will be nearly two decades older, they will have grown out of their student politics phase and matured into normal rational thinking human beings. |
Or …… many of the old people who voted the uk ‘out ‘ have now passed……
The yes vote people will stay yes, for sure,whilst the new voters will also be ‘ yes’.
Its a slam dunk. |  |
| Beware of the Risen People
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| Second BREXIT Referendum on 21:35 - Dec 21 with 986 views | Kilkennyjack |
| Second BREXIT Referendum on 17:44 - Dec 21 by Whiterockin |
Is someone who has migrated to this country allowed to vote and if so would it impact the result. |
English people now living in Wales voted Wales out. | |
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| Second BREXIT Referendum on 21:58 - Dec 21 with 974 views | Whiterockin |
| Second BREXIT Referendum on 21:35 - Dec 21 by Kilkennyjack |
English people now living in Wales voted Wales out. |
I'll take that as you don't know then. | | | |
| Second BREXIT Referendum on 22:11 - Dec 21 with 951 views | AnotherJohn |
| Second BREXIT Referendum on 21:35 - Dec 21 by Kilkennyjack |
English people now living in Wales voted Wales out. |
Wales had a higher percentage of leave voters than England. if Killy's silly hypothesis was correct and English incomers merely replicated the English pattern to influence the Welsh result then you would not get the result we had. | | | |
| Second BREXIT Referendum on 22:44 - Dec 21 with 908 views | Kilkennyjack |
| Second BREXIT Referendum on 22:11 - Dec 21 by AnotherJohn |
Wales had a higher percentage of leave voters than England. if Killy's silly hypothesis was correct and English incomers merely replicated the English pattern to influence the Welsh result then you would not get the result we had. |
Rubbish.
Research suggests i am correct.
You are just guessing shite. [Post edited 21 Dec 22:47]
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| Second BREXIT Referendum on 23:27 - Dec 21 with 879 views | Joesus_Of_Narbereth |
| Second BREXIT Referendum on 21:35 - Dec 21 by Kilkennyjack |
English people now living in Wales voted Wales out. |
How long does someone need to be living in wales to be considered Welsh out of interest? | |
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| Second BREXIT Referendum on 23:33 - Dec 21 with 865 views | Joesus_Of_Narbereth |
| Second BREXIT Referendum on 22:44 - Dec 21 by Kilkennyjack |
Rubbish.
Research suggests i am correct.
You are just guessing shite. [Post edited 21 Dec 22:47]
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They’ve got no way of knowing who voted which way though. They can do half arsed polls of a few hundred people but extrapolating that to an electorate of 40 odd million or whatever it is is just not very scientific in the slightest. | |
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| Second BREXIT Referendum on 11:01 - Dec 22 with 756 views | Gwyn737 |
IMO we’re a long way from a second referendum.
It needs 20 or 30 years to see where we are.
I do think we should be able to reach out and make positive links with the EU, especially with Trump in the White House. It makes no sense to be isolationist.
The quicker we can come to terms with leaving having pretty much no impact on immigration and we need to crack on the better. | | | |
| Second BREXIT Referendum on 12:25 - Dec 22 with 712 views | AnotherJohn |
| Second BREXIT Referendum on 22:44 - Dec 21 by Kilkennyjack |
Rubbish.
Research suggests i am correct.
You are just guessing shite. [Post edited 21 Dec 22:47]
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That Oxford research uses data on Brexit voting profiles by age group to argue that a significant retiree population had a big influence on the result in Wales. However, it does not go into the crucial issue of which Welsh localities voted which way. Merthyr and Rhonda Cynon Taff are hardly areas where large numbers of English retirees settle, but they and indeed all the valley areas voted heavily for Brexit. Other academics explain this with reference to industrial history, culture, and disillusionment with the Welsh political elite rather than English retirees.
https://blogs.cardiff.ac.uk/electionsinwales/wp-content/uploads/sites/100/2018/0
Usual trashy final sentence from a poster who seems to find it hard to construct logical arguments. | | | |
| Second BREXIT Referendum on 15:14 - Dec 22 with 672 views | waynekerr55 |
We had a Germany + deal and we aren't going back in on those terms.
Personally I'm all for a Norwegian/Swiss model where we align with the single market/customs union and maintain the pound/our own central bank. |  |
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| Second BREXIT Referendum on 15:18 - Dec 22 with 665 views | onehunglow |
| Second BREXIT Referendum on 15:14 - Dec 22 by waynekerr55 |
We had a Germany + deal and we aren't going back in on those terms.
Personally I'm all for a Norwegian/Swiss model where we align with the single market/customs union and maintain the pound/our own central bank. |
You ok now Wayne
Best for the festive season
It’ll soon be over  | |
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| Second BREXIT Referendum on 16:44 - Dec 22 with 624 views | SullutaCreturned |
| Second BREXIT Referendum on 22:44 - Dec 21 by Kilkennyjack |
Rubbish.
Research suggests i am correct.
You are just guessing shite. [Post edited 21 Dec 22:47]
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Talking about guessing, how do you know, or this links provider, know how anybody voted?
They don't, it's pure guesswork, propaganda. You people make it up to suit your argument. | | | |
| Second BREXIT Referendum on 17:59 - Dec 22 with 590 views | johnlangy |
| Second BREXIT Referendum on 16:50 - Dec 21 by Joesus_Of_Narbereth |
You’re forgetting the undeniable biological fact that the young people from 2016 will be nearly two decades older, they will have grown out of their student politics phase and matured into normal rational thinking human beings. |
You're suggesting that as the group that mostly voted remain (the young) will be two decades older by the time of another ref (if one happens) that they'll naturally transform into Brexiteers as they'll be older and wiser. And they would replace the older leave voters who would have fallen from the perch in that time. In other words maintaining the balance with older people being leavers and younger being remainers.
The trouble with that logic is now that we're getting on for one decade post the ref you'd imagine that the polls would show little change from the 48/52 split we had in 2016. But all the polls for the last three years or more have shown a widening gap with the latest i've seen showing a 55/31 result saying leave was a mistake.
I really can see it happening JON. | | | |
| Second BREXIT Referendum on 18:09 - Dec 22 with 580 views | johnlangy |
| Second BREXIT Referendum on 21:20 - Dec 21 by SullutaCreturned |
It's something that Kilky always ignores, the young will get old and their thought processes will have changed.
Starmer has said there won't be a referendum, I suppose I'll have to believe him. Even so, the way Labour are going who knows who'll be in the hot seat after the next election.
Anyway, to apply for membership now we'd have to go through the process, could take years.
Lastly, people seem to be ignoring the wee fact that the EU itself has really quite large internal issues. |
See my response to JON cat re younger people becoming older and wiser.
You're right to say the process, if it happened, would take years. But leaving after the ref took getting on for five years if you include the transition year of 2020,
And the problems that the EU is currently having could turn to the UK's benefit if we were to vote to rejoin. Many people have said over the last eight years that we'd end up with a terrible deal if we were to rejoin as the EU would look to punish the UK. It could be argued that the EU would see the UK rejoining as giving the EU a huge boost, bearing in mind the problems you rightly say they are having, making them a lot more amenable in offering us a good deal. | | | |
| Second BREXIT Referendum on 18:28 - Dec 22 with 563 views | Kilkennyjack |
| Second BREXIT Referendum on 16:44 - Dec 22 by SullutaCreturned |
Talking about guessing, how do you know, or this links provider, know how anybody voted?
They don't, it's pure guesswork, propaganda. You people make it up to suit your argument. |
Its from researchers at Oxford University.
Published in the Guardian.
You just dont like the conclusion to their work. | |
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| Second BREXIT Referendum on 18:32 - Dec 22 with 543 views | SullutaCreturned |
| Second BREXIT Referendum on 18:09 - Dec 22 by johnlangy |
See my response to JON cat re younger people becoming older and wiser.
You're right to say the process, if it happened, would take years. But leaving after the ref took getting on for five years if you include the transition year of 2020,
And the problems that the EU is currently having could turn to the UK's benefit if we were to vote to rejoin. Many people have said over the last eight years that we'd end up with a terrible deal if we were to rejoin as the EU would look to punish the UK. It could be argued that the EU would see the UK rejoining as giving the EU a huge boost, bearing in mind the problems you rightly say they are having, making them a lot more amenable in offering us a good deal. |
Points well made, I cannot argue against them. All I can do is say the same things that applies to all of us, we'll have to wait and see.
For all the predictions that have been, or will be made on this forum, all any of us can do is wait and see.
Personally, I largely agree with Gwyn on this, we could and should have a better relationship with the EU and it is possible but there is one very big thing that needs to happen to mkae that possible....politicians on both sides need to start acting in the best interests of the people and stop acting out of self interest. | | | |
| Second BREXIT Referendum on 18:32 - Dec 22 with 542 views | Kilkennyjack |
| Second BREXIT Referendum on 23:27 - Dec 21 by Joesus_Of_Narbereth |
How long does someone need to be living in wales to be considered Welsh out of interest? |
Well i think thats a quite different question to that which the academics looked at.
Its pretty simple for Plaid in the anyone who lives, works, and contributes to Wales is Welsh, its an inclusive civic nationalism. Its not about years nor DNA nor language.
Do you have a different view ? | |
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| Second BREXIT Referendum on 18:43 - Dec 22 with 512 views | SullutaCreturned |
| Second BREXIT Referendum on 18:32 - Dec 22 by Kilkennyjack |
Well i think thats a quite different question to that which the academics looked at.
Its pretty simple for Plaid in the anyone who lives, works, and contributes to Wales is Welsh, its an inclusive civic nationalism. Its not about years nor DNA nor language.
Do you have a different view ? |
In which case, anybody who lives, works and contributes to the UK is British, you may well have a different view but to deny that would be hypocrisy, we all pay our income tax to Westminster. | | | |
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