| if the current goal is 4th from bottom... 21:25 - Jan 15 with 5519 views | G_Ottershaw |
what is your prediction for the number of points needed for 4th place ? would be interesting to see just how many wins we really need. |  | | |  |
| if the current goal is 4th from bottom... on 21:26 - Jan 15 with 4923 views | loftboy |
I predict that one more than 3rd from bottom should do it. |  |
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| if the current goal is 4th from bottom... on 22:17 - Jan 15 with 4757 views | dmm |
As mentioned in another thread, the average number of points over the past 12 seasons to achieve 21st place in the table is 47. We currently have 21 points and 19 games left to play. |  | | |
| if the current goal is 4th from bottom... on 22:33 - Jan 15 with 4724 views | Bluce_Ree |
Pain. [Post edited 15 Jan 22:34]
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| Stefan Moore, Stefan Moore running down the wing. Stefan Moore, Stefan Moore running down the wing. He runs like a cheetah, his crosses couldn't be sweeter. Stefan Moore. Stefan Moore. Stefan Moore. |
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| if the current goal is 4th from bottom... on 22:37 - Jan 15 with 4706 views | G_Ottershaw |
...well come the last game of the season, i hope they're making plans for each and every member of the squad to line up and make a public apology to the fans | | | |
| if the current goal is 4th from bottom... on 22:47 - Jan 15 with 4667 views | joolsyp |
| if the current goal is 4th from bottom... on 22:17 - Jan 15 by dmm |
As mentioned in another thread, the average number of points over the past 12 seasons to achieve 21st place in the table is 47. We currently have 21 points and 19 games left to play. |
I'll go for 48 to stay up on goal difference. So 27 more points needed - 8 wins and 3 draws from 19 games.
Walk in the park. |  | | |
| if the current goal is 4th from bottom... on 22:54 - Jan 15 with 4640 views | aston_hoop |
| if the current goal is 4th from bottom... on 22:50 - Jan 15 by BazzaInTheLoft |
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Warburton is coming back? |  |
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| if the current goal is 4th from bottom... on 23:13 - Jan 15 with 4581 views | BazzaInTheLoft |
| if the current goal is 4th from bottom... on 22:54 - Jan 15 by aston_hoop |
Warburton is coming back? |
I knew my sophisticated high brow humour was wasted here. |  | | |
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| if the current goal is 4th from bottom... on 23:20 - Jan 15 with 4560 views | aston_hoop |
| if the current goal is 4th from bottom... on 23:13 - Jan 15 by BazzaInTheLoft |
I knew my sophisticated high brow humour was wasted here. |
désolé  | |
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| if the current goal is 4th from bottom... on 09:45 - Jan 16 with 4305 views | TheChef |
Quelle dommage. |  |
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| if the current goal is 4th from bottom... on 10:01 - Jan 16 with 4268 views | ngbqpr |
| if the current goal is 4th from bottom... on 09:45 - Jan 16 by TheChef |
Quelle dommage. |
On this board, surely quelle fromage |  |
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| if the current goal is 4th from bottom... on 10:22 - Jan 16 with 4197 views | essextaxiboy |
We have to beat Millwall , Huddersfield, Rotheram , Birmingham and Sheff Wed at home as a base to work from .
Then try and grab another 12 points from there . after beating them though we should only have to match their results to stay above them ...I think ?
Anyway IMO they are must wins |  | | |
| if the current goal is 4th from bottom... on 11:13 - Jan 16 with 4151 views | ngbqpr |
| if the current goal is 4th from bottom... on 10:22 - Jan 16 by essextaxiboy |
We have to beat Millwall , Huddersfield, Rotheram , Birmingham and Sheff Wed at home as a base to work from .
Then try and grab another 12 points from there . after beating them though we should only have to match their results to stay above them ...I think ?
Anyway IMO they are must wins |
Agree with that...but can't see it happening sadly - so easy to see those crucial home games petering out into frustrating 1-1s full of what ifs... | |
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| if the current goal is 4th from bottom... on 14:14 - Jan 16 with 3997 views | TheChef |
| if the current goal is 4th from bottom... on 11:13 - Jan 16 by ngbqpr |
Agree with that...but can't see it happening sadly - so easy to see those crucial home games petering out into frustrating 1-1s full of what ifs... |
"Frustrating 1-1s"???
You wish!  | |
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| if the current goal is 4th from bottom... on 23:38 - Jan 16 with 3850 views | LazyFan |
| if the current goal is 4th from bottom... on 22:47 - Jan 15 by joolsyp |
I'll go for 48 to stay up on goal difference. So 27 more points needed - 8 wins and 3 draws from 19 games.
Walk in the park. |
Looks right to me, unless we go on a Holloway/Gregory run of win it ain't gonna happen.
We are down! |  |
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| if the current goal is 4th from bottom... on 07:25 - Jan 17 with 3765 views | daveB |
the whole picture can look very different very quickly, the next 3 games are very big for us, all winnable and all against sides in the bottom half, lose them and we're looking at snookers, 7 points from them and we are in with a fighting chance |  | | |
| if the current goal is 4th from bottom... on 09:00 - Jan 17 with 3673 views | CroydonCaptJack |
I saw some Championship predictor thing the other day that had us 4th bottom, a point above Huddersfield and I am pretty sure it was on 38 points. Clearly, it is just an estimate but unless one of the bottom 4 starts winning a good few games it could well be a more accurate target than 48 (hopefully!) |  | | |
| if the current goal is 4th from bottom... on 09:07 - Jan 17 with 3669 views | Lblock |
Rotherham traditionally come strong at the end.
Chef Weds new man is bedded in and whispers of them making signings
Hudds making moves in the window
We'll be plum last.
4th bottom is a pipe dream |  |
| Cherish and enjoy life.... this ain't no dress rehearsal |
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| if the current goal is 4th from bottom... on 09:33 - Jan 17 with 3641 views | PhilmyRs |
| if the current goal is 4th from bottom... on 07:25 - Jan 17 by daveB |
the whole picture can look very different very quickly, the next 3 games are very big for us, all winnable and all against sides in the bottom half, lose them and we're looking at snookers, 7 points from them and we are in with a fighting chance |
This.
The next game is massive and think any predictions/thoughts on how it will go should wait for that. If we do get a win, good chance it sets us up for the following weekend and a potential win to get out the bottom 3, which must do wonders for morale. We've pretty much been planted in the bottom 3 for the whole season, so getting out of that I think will have a huge impact on us and a bit of a weight lifted from us. Lose on Saturday and even Huddersfield are starting to pull away and I can't see how we'd claw our way back. | | | |
| if the current goal is 4th from bottom... on 07:12 - Jan 18 with 3390 views | numptydumpty |
| if the current goal is 4th from bottom... on 09:33 - Jan 17 by PhilmyRs |
This.
The next game is massive and think any predictions/thoughts on how it will go should wait for that. If we do get a win, good chance it sets us up for the following weekend and a potential win to get out the bottom 3, which must do wonders for morale. We've pretty much been planted in the bottom 3 for the whole season, so getting out of that I think will have a huge impact on us and a bit of a weight lifted from us. Lose on Saturday and even Huddersfield are starting to pull away and I can't see how we'd claw our way back. |
It will be much lower than normal.
Think 39 points required for fourth bottom.
If we don't have any injuries to key players ie Chair Cook Field we have a chance |  |
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| if the current goal is 4th from bottom... on 14:47 - Jan 18 with 3250 views | connell10 |
| if the current goal is 4th from bottom... on 21:26 - Jan 15 by loftboy |
I predict that one more than 3rd from bottom should do it. |
We're f ucked! |  |
| AND WHEN I DREAM , I DREAM ABOUT YOU AND WHEN I SCREAM I SCREAM ABOUT YOU!!!!! | | Poll: | best number 10 ever? |
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| if the current goal is 4th from bottom... on 15:03 - Jan 18 with 3241 views | Hunterhoop |
| if the current goal is 4th from bottom... on 07:12 - Jan 18 by numptydumpty |
It will be much lower than normal.
Think 39 points required for fourth bottom.
If we don't have any injuries to key players ie Chair Cook Field we have a chance |
In what world will we survive on 39 points?! Huddersfield are on 26 from 27, which is a full season run rate of 44 points. So, crudely that is 45 to survive. But that assumes Wednesday won’t go past them, which their current form is tracking like they will easily!
Birmingham need a point a game to finish on 48, everyone else fewer, which is worse than they’ve been to date, yet they can’t be as bad as they were under Potato Head.
Wednesday might finish on between 45-48 (possibly/probably higher).
My bet is 48/49 will be safety. Even assuming 48, that means we need 27 from 19. That is form equivalent to 65 points over a full season, or 10th-12th to put it bluntly.
We need 7 points from our next 3 games…and within that we must beat Huddersfield.
Fail on those two counts and we’re done for, IMO. March is a brutal month fixtures wise. |  | | |
| if the current goal is 4th from bottom... on 15:04 - Jan 18 with 3241 views | QPRConor2000 |
Its still doable, these next two games are huge in the context of the season. | | | |
| if the current goal is 4th from bottom... on 15:14 - Jan 18 with 3203 views | kensalriser |
PPG get increasingly irrelevant as the games left to play decline. If we needed 3 points in the last game no one would be saying that's impossible because we've only averaged a point a game up to now.
The critical target is currently +5 points. |  |
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| if the current goal is 4th from bottom... on 16:43 - Jan 18 with 3150 views | Hunterhoop |
| if the current goal is 4th from bottom... on 15:14 - Jan 18 by kensalriser |
PPG get increasingly irrelevant as the games left to play decline. If we needed 3 points in the last game no one would be saying that's impossible because we've only averaged a point a game up to now.
The critical target is currently +5 points. |
Yes, of course, but it’s not irrelevant now for forecasting the points total we likely need to reach to stay up.
Everyone always focuses on how far ahead or behind you are of other teams. That only matters on the last day too. And the best indicator for that months out is your forecast annual points total, based on how everyone is tracking and historic performance for the position you’re looking at, in our case 21st.
I cannot believe you’ll stay up on 39. It’ll be around the 48, mark. We should be aiming for 27 from 19. That requires some wins. Our fixture list gets harder in March, so think we need to average more now through Feb to get ahead of the PPG target. | | | |
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