| Final standing Predictions 07:46 - Apr 19 with 2452 views | vanrrrr |
Good News: Fivethirtyeight stats nerd model has us safe by a point!
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/soccer-predictions/championship/
bad news - these are the same analysts who said on election day 2016 HRC would smash Trump.
Anyway needed a bit of hope before heading to LR today ... [Post edited 19 Apr 2023 10:30]
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| Final standing Predictions on 07:53 - Apr 19 with 2420 views | Northernr |
19 days ago before we played Wigan that lot said there was a 15% chance of us being relegated. |  | | |
| Final standing Predictions on 08:40 - Apr 19 with 2302 views | stowmarketrange |
| Final standing Predictions on 07:53 - Apr 19 by Northernr |
19 days ago before we played Wigan that lot said there was a 15% chance of us being relegated. |
There were quite a few on here that confidently predicted a couple of months ago that we aren’t going to be relegated.I wonder what they’re thinking now? |  | | |
| Final standing Predictions on 08:42 - Apr 19 with 2295 views | CroydonCaptJack |
| Final standing Predictions on 07:53 - Apr 19 by Northernr |
19 days ago before we played Wigan that lot said there was a 15% chance of us being relegated. |
To be fair, that should have been about right to any outsider. Unfortunately most haven't witnessed what we have. I would have lumped on but I can never bring myself to bet against us (no matter how profitable that would have been over the years!) |  | | |
| Final standing Predictions on 08:43 - Apr 19 with 2286 views | GaryBannister86 |
| Final standing Predictions on 08:40 - Apr 19 by stowmarketrange |
There were quite a few on here that confidently predicted a couple of months ago that we aren’t going to be relegated.I wonder what they’re thinking now? |
I was one of those who thought we had enough points two months ago, but that was because I thought Reading would get docked 12 and Huddersfield too.
Was nothing to do with confidence in the team :-) |  | | |
| Final standing Predictions on 09:11 - Apr 19 with 2122 views | kropotkin41 |
One of our close neighbours, a very clever lady, has recently published a book which points out just what bullsh*t models generally are.... I paraphrase. They're rubbish at predicting the speed at which things get worse.... climate tipping points or QPR melting away unfathomably fast. |  |
| ‘morbid curiosity about where this is all going’ |
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| Final standing Predictions on 09:13 - Apr 19 with 2110 views | enfieldargh |
they also call it soccer |  |
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| Final standing Predictions on 09:24 - Apr 19 with 2055 views | Lblock |
After Wigan's win last night I think we'll finish stone last.
Below two teams with point deductions
Nice one Bungle and the boys |  |
| Cherish and enjoy life.... this ain't no dress rehearsal |
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| Final standing Predictions on 09:37 - Apr 19 with 1973 views | PhilmyRs |
| Final standing Predictions on 09:24 - Apr 19 by Lblock |
After Wigan's win last night I think we'll finish stone last.
Below two teams with point deductions
Nice one Bungle and the boys |
Don't think it was the worst thing in the world with Wigan winning, keeps them alive (hopefully) for when they're away at Reading. But still think we'll drop as I can't see where any points are coming from. | | | |
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| Final standing Predictions on 09:37 - Apr 19 with 1972 views | BklynRanger |
| Final standing Predictions on 09:11 - Apr 19 by kropotkin41 |
One of our close neighbours, a very clever lady, has recently published a book which points out just what bullsh*t models generally are.... I paraphrase. They're rubbish at predicting the speed at which things get worse.... climate tipping points or QPR melting away unfathomably fast. |
The speed at which things get worse is certainly the problem with that 538 prediction I think - we're a whole 2% less likely than Reading to get relegated but the pace of our decline has got to be far greater.
Needs a bit of the old mixed methods: if Nate Silver had gone on Saturday he'd just have written 'fcuked' beside our chances. |  | | |
| Final standing Predictions on 09:40 - Apr 19 with 1956 views | SimonJames |
| Final standing Predictions on 09:24 - Apr 19 by Lblock |
After Wigan's win last night I think we'll finish stone last.
Below two teams with point deductions
Nice one Bungle and the boys |
With Wigan's and Blackpool's remaining fixtures, coupled with better goal differences, I wouldn't bet against that.
I guess it mainly comes down to whether Millwall start winning again... |  |
| 100% of people who drink water will die. |
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