| Corona Virus 22:39 - Mar 7 with 506697 views | SgorioFruit |
Sorry for new thread,
But how bad do you lot reckon it’s going to get here in the UK?
I just been watching the news. Looking nasty in Italy. |  |
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| Corona Virus on 18:09 - Mar 8 with 3471 views | londonlisa2001 |
| Corona Virus on 18:06 - Mar 8 by Professor |
I believe the latest thinking is about 20% of all infections would
Ordinarily be hospitalised. Of course this be disproportionately higher than a healthy population when including the susceptibles. Nevertheless 0.1 to 0.2% mortality in healthy 20-49 year olds is
Much higher than seasonal flu. This is very much a foretaste
Of what a truly pandemic flu could do and indeed the longer term impact of AMR in day-to-day life
Let’s just hope we keep the epidemic rate or R0 as close to one as possible |
Agree. It seems that Korea is at around 1 at the moment. Their approach is incredible.
Compare and contrast to the US! |  | | |
| Corona Virus on 18:19 - Mar 8 with 3439 views | Professor |
| Corona Virus on 18:09 - Mar 8 by londonlisa2001 |
Agree. It seems that Korea is at around 1 at the moment. Their approach is incredible.
Compare and contrast to the US! |
Absolutely. US public health system is chronically underfunded. Sadly, we have cut back a lot but still pretty good | | | |
| Corona Virus on 18:21 - Mar 8 with 3430 views | DJack |
Here you go. The actual data for those who are interested.
https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/who-china-joint-mission-on-
A snippet...
"As of 20 February 2020 and based on 55924 laboratory confirmed cases, typical signs and symptomsinclude:fever (87.9%), dry cough (67.7%), fatigue (38.1%), sputum production (33.4%), shortness of breath (18.6%), sore throat (13.9%), headache (13.6%), myalgiaor arthralgia (14.8%), chills(11.4%), nausea or vomiting (5.0%), nasal congestion (4.8%), diarrhea (3.7%), and hemoptysis (0.9%), and conjunctival congestion (0.8%)" |  |
| It is far better to grasp the universe as it really is than to persist in delusion, however satisfying and reassuring. - Carl Sagan |
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| Corona Virus on 19:14 - Mar 8 with 3369 views | NotLoyal |
| Corona Virus on 18:21 - Mar 8 by DJack |
Here you go. The actual data for those who are interested.
https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/who-china-joint-mission-on-
A snippet...
"As of 20 February 2020 and based on 55924 laboratory confirmed cases, typical signs and symptomsinclude:fever (87.9%), dry cough (67.7%), fatigue (38.1%), sputum production (33.4%), shortness of breath (18.6%), sore throat (13.9%), headache (13.6%), myalgiaor arthralgia (14.8%), chills(11.4%), nausea or vomiting (5.0%), nasal congestion (4.8%), diarrhea (3.7%), and hemoptysis (0.9%), and conjunctival congestion (0.8%)" |
I had all that after a dodgy pot of mushroom tea as a yoof.
Does that make me immune? |  |
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| Corona Virus on 19:43 - Mar 8 with 3331 views | DJack |
| Corona Virus on 19:14 - Mar 8 by NotLoyal |
I had all that after a dodgy pot of mushroom tea as a yoof.
Does that make me immune? |
No, it makes you a bit of a hippy.  | |
| It is far better to grasp the universe as it really is than to persist in delusion, however satisfying and reassuring. - Carl Sagan |
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| Corona Virus on 19:44 - Mar 8 with 3331 views | legoman |
This is a bad outbreak make no mistake. However I believe that the infection itself is not that severe. But people must understand that it is vital to contain this thing as much as we can because the impact on society as a whole will be significant. It is far more important to emphasise the negative aspects of the outbreak so that the general public get it straight in their minds.
The Twitter thread that has been quoted on this forum is sobering. But please folks don't focus on the prospect of it killing you. It probably won't. Instead think about how NOT to spread it. It is for the benefit of all.
And don't take this comment to heart and think I'm aiming it at this forum - I'm really not. But sadly, these days I feel we are too "me" focussed. Think about others this time around and thank your own God (if you believe one) that as well as a high infectivity rate this disease is not more severe, like Ebola for example.
I'm really not trying to scaremonger but personal hygiene now is absolutely vital.
And I'm so glad I don't live in the US. |  |
| "M'sieur, you said your dog did not bite!"
"That's not my dog" |
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| Corona Virus on 20:07 - Mar 8 with 3271 views | Swanjaxs |
Just said on the news that churches are stopping the bread and wine gig at the end of the service to deter the spread of the virus...
Bit hypocritical of them I'd say... |  |
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| Corona Virus on 20:17 - Mar 8 with 3250 views | majorraglan |
| Corona Virus on 07:45 - Mar 8 by pikeypaul |
100%
It’s crazy how this is allowed to be taking place.But the bookmakers have people in very high places, just look how MPs from all sides tried to delay the limit stakes on FOBTs in the scummy bookmakers shops.
Anyone who’s been to Cheltenham meeting will know how messy it gets and everyone is only inches away from each other’s faces whilst drinking and talking given the cramped conditions , if 1 person walks in there with it 100 will walk out with it.
OUT
AFLI |
And Newport Gwent Dragons hosted Benetton Treviso on Friday night, mental! | | | |
| Corona Virus on 20:41 - Mar 8 with 3196 views | hobo |
| Corona Virus on 11:25 - Mar 8 by NotLoyal |
Too many thick cnts in the U.K. too worried about themselves and what they can have is the issue. Those masks should come with a free first aid kit to clean up the blood from the smack in the mouth they should get.
Any scaremongering in the press which is inaccurate should mean severe sanctions and maybe even public flogging.
Long live Brexit 😂 |
I've been wearing mine for the last 7-10 days, and my money is on you wearing yours within the next few weeks |  | | |
| Corona Virus on 20:45 - Mar 8 with 3190 views | majorraglan |
| Corona Virus on 20:04 - Mar 8 by DJack |
Currently, according to Johns Hopkins data:
infections 109,668
deaths 3801
recovered 60693
Edit for fat fingers [Post edited 8 Mar 2020 20:06]
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That equates to a mortality rate of 3.5%. I appreciate that’s a world wide figure and that we have a much better healthcare system than most countries, but we also have a high proportion of older people in the population who would be very vulnerable.
People go on about the flu killing more each year, this has the potential to be much more deadly than the flu. This s serious. If it cannot be contained fairly quickly, then we are going to have to look at increasingly drastic measures to contain it. Do the maths, If 10% of the UKs population of 65m catch it and the mortality rate is 3.5%, that equates to just over 225,000.
I travelled through a Mediterranean airport this week and they were scanning new arrivals with a laser thermometer looking for increased body temperature. Some Governments are very worried. | | | |
| Corona Virus on 20:52 - Mar 8 with 3163 views | Jack123 |
| Corona Virus on 20:45 - Mar 8 by majorraglan |
That equates to a mortality rate of 3.5%. I appreciate that’s a world wide figure and that we have a much better healthcare system than most countries, but we also have a high proportion of older people in the population who would be very vulnerable.
People go on about the flu killing more each year, this has the potential to be much more deadly than the flu. This s serious. If it cannot be contained fairly quickly, then we are going to have to look at increasingly drastic measures to contain it. Do the maths, If 10% of the UKs population of 65m catch it and the mortality rate is 3.5%, that equates to just over 225,000.
I travelled through a Mediterranean airport this week and they were scanning new arrivals with a laser thermometer looking for increased body temperature. Some Governments are very worried. |
Scary stuff indeed, just watched a report on the news, and a doctor was saying that millions will be infected, is more or less inevitable .. Apparently the government will implement the next stage soon, so from containment to delay, but what i found earlier from this doctor explaining it on the news, this is purely to stop the nhs being flooded with more cases than it can handle, and then after that he said about the millions being infected.. :( |  |
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| Corona Virus on 21:00 - Mar 8 with 3144 views | Swanjaxs |
| Corona Virus on 20:52 - Mar 8 by Jack123 |
Scary stuff indeed, just watched a report on the news, and a doctor was saying that millions will be infected, is more or less inevitable .. Apparently the government will implement the next stage soon, so from containment to delay, but what i found earlier from this doctor explaining it on the news, this is purely to stop the nhs being flooded with more cases than it can handle, and then after that he said about the millions being infected.. :( |
Message to China...
STOP EATING EVERYTHING THAT MOVES!... | |
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| Corona Virus on 21:03 - Mar 8 with 3137 views | NotLoyal |
| Corona Virus on 20:07 - Mar 8 by Swanjaxs |
Just said on the news that churches are stopping the bread and wine gig at the end of the service to deter the spread of the virus...
Bit hypocritical of them I'd say... |
That's pretty poor, for some that's Pre drinks before a good Sunday slurp. | |
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| Corona Virus on 21:05 - Mar 8 with 3131 views | Swanjaxs |
| Corona Virus on 21:03 - Mar 8 by NotLoyal |
That's pretty poor, for some that's Pre drinks before a good Sunday slurp. |
😂😂😂😂
Bless you my son 😇 | |
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| Corona Virus on 21:10 - Mar 8 with 3120 views | legoman |
| Corona Virus on 20:52 - Mar 8 by Jack123 |
Scary stuff indeed, just watched a report on the news, and a doctor was saying that millions will be infected, is more or less inevitable .. Apparently the government will implement the next stage soon, so from containment to delay, but what i found earlier from this doctor explaining it on the news, this is purely to stop the nhs being flooded with more cases than it can handle, and then after that he said about the millions being infected.. :( |
And this is the point. Don't be concerned about the infection itself. It will likely pass you by with a relatively modest individual impact that you can manage at home, much as you would do with a cold.
The impact on society is much more of a worry and hence why we must all take responsibility to make sure we don't spread it. If the UK has 65m people and 10% are infected that's 6.5m. If 1% need treatment in hospital that's 65,000. If 10% of those needing treatment develop pneumonia that's 6,500. The UK only has 4,000 ICU beds and currently they are 80% occupied.
Whilst not all the 6,500 will need treatment at the same time, you can see that there will still be a massive strain on the NHS.
This is why it pays to scare the general population into not spreading the virus. | |
| "M'sieur, you said your dog did not bite!"
"That's not my dog" |
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| Corona Virus on 21:23 - Mar 8 with 3081 views | JACKMANANDBOY |
| Corona Virus on 21:10 - Mar 8 by legoman |
And this is the point. Don't be concerned about the infection itself. It will likely pass you by with a relatively modest individual impact that you can manage at home, much as you would do with a cold.
The impact on society is much more of a worry and hence why we must all take responsibility to make sure we don't spread it. If the UK has 65m people and 10% are infected that's 6.5m. If 1% need treatment in hospital that's 65,000. If 10% of those needing treatment develop pneumonia that's 6,500. The UK only has 4,000 ICU beds and currently they are 80% occupied.
Whilst not all the 6,500 will need treatment at the same time, you can see that there will still be a massive strain on the NHS.
This is why it pays to scare the general population into not spreading the virus. |
Yes, that's what Italy are trying to deal with, huge health service demands. |  |
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| Corona Virus on 21:56 - Mar 8 with 3029 views | BytholWyn |
The scary possibility that the authorities are most anxious to avoid is a sharp peak in infections, and soon, resulting in an overwhelmed NHS and far more deaths than would be the case if the inevitable peak of infection is delayed and less pronounced. What we need is more of a Sugar Loaf mountain rather than a Matterhorn.
We should all do our bit, if not for complacent ourselves, then for others who are more vulnerable. |  | | |
| Corona Virus on 22:28 - Mar 8 with 2970 views | DJack |
| Corona Virus on 20:45 - Mar 8 by majorraglan |
That equates to a mortality rate of 3.5%. I appreciate that’s a world wide figure and that we have a much better healthcare system than most countries, but we also have a high proportion of older people in the population who would be very vulnerable.
People go on about the flu killing more each year, this has the potential to be much more deadly than the flu. This s serious. If it cannot be contained fairly quickly, then we are going to have to look at increasingly drastic measures to contain it. Do the maths, If 10% of the UKs population of 65m catch it and the mortality rate is 3.5%, that equates to just over 225,000.
I travelled through a Mediterranean airport this week and they were scanning new arrivals with a laser thermometer looking for increased body temperature. Some Governments are very worried. |
Aye, as a headline but we both know that the actual level of infections is very much higher - for the lucky ones the symptoms will be mild enough to be confuesed with seasonal cold/mild flu and therefore not reported. | |
| It is far better to grasp the universe as it really is than to persist in delusion, however satisfying and reassuring. - Carl Sagan |
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| Corona Virus on 22:43 - Mar 8 with 2953 views | BytholWyn |
This is worth reading: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-rate/#who-03-03-20
The stats from China illustrate the importance of managing the infection rate as best as possible. Take this from the article:
"The overall CFR [case fatality rate] varies by location and intensity of transmission (i.e. 5.8% in Wuhan vs. 0.7% in other areas in China)."
One reason given for the significant variation in mortality rate between Chinese regions is: "Asked why Wuhan was so much higher than the national level, the NHC official replied that it was for lack of resources, citing as an example that there were only 110 critical care beds in the three designated hospitals where most of the cases were sent.".
What we're seeing currently in Italy, with people being treated in corridors is a sobering indication of how things could turn out here. There is only so much we can do, but we must do what we can. | | | |
| Corona Virus on 22:47 - Mar 8 with 2947 views | Lohengrin |
| Corona Virus on 22:43 - Mar 8 by BytholWyn |
This is worth reading: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-rate/#who-03-03-20
The stats from China illustrate the importance of managing the infection rate as best as possible. Take this from the article:
"The overall CFR [case fatality rate] varies by location and intensity of transmission (i.e. 5.8% in Wuhan vs. 0.7% in other areas in China)."
One reason given for the significant variation in mortality rate between Chinese regions is: "Asked why Wuhan was so much higher than the national level, the NHC official replied that it was for lack of resources, citing as an example that there were only 110 critical care beds in the three designated hospitals where most of the cases were sent.".
What we're seeing currently in Italy, with people being treated in corridors is a sobering indication of how things could turn out here. There is only so much we can do, but we must do what we can. |
Communist propaganda. |  |
| An idea isn't responsible for those who believe in it. |
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| Corona Virus on 22:59 - Mar 8 with 2937 views | NotLoyal |
| Corona Virus on 22:28 - Mar 8 by DJack |
Aye, as a headline but we both know that the actual level of infections is very much higher - for the lucky ones the symptoms will be mild enough to be confuesed with seasonal cold/mild flu and therefore not reported. |
Apparently 3 million people suffer from the flu in the UK between January and April.
Quandary. | |
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| Corona Virus on 08:28 - Mar 9 with 2827 views | BytholWyn |
I guess you're being facetious, but perhaps not. Assuming the latter, it hardly reflects well on China that an official would acknowledge that the high mortality rate in Wuhan was due to a lack of resources there. The reality is is that pretty much any country's health system is likely to be overwhelmed if the rate of infection reaches the levels seen in Wuhan. Anything we can do to delay the peak, and more importantly, its magnitude, we should do. | | | |
| Corona Virus on 09:17 - Mar 9 with 2796 views | Cooperman |
| Corona Virus on 18:08 - Mar 8 by Thebus |
No what you don’t realise is I’m happy to go about my daily life and don’t want to be put in quarantine by the authorities. If you have underlying health problems, take more care.
As for the rest of us carry on as usual. |
On the contrary I understand your point of view regarding lockdown. The point I am making to you is that you cannot use flu statistics to justify your argument purely on the basis that there are vaccination programmes available for this. This is not the case for COVID-19. |  |
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| Corona Virus on 09:44 - Mar 9 with 2773 views | Neath_Jack |
Two more in Wales confirmed today so far, one in Neath Port Talbot, and one in Newport. |  |
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