QPR's continued struggles on the road, and tougher home fixtures to come towards the end of the season, mean pressure is growing to continue their recent run of Loftus Road form against fellow strugglers West Brom on Saturday.
Game nine of QPR’s 19 match season brings fellow strugglers West Brom to Loftus Road and, thanks to another poor away defeat on Monday evening, it’s another high-stakes, high-pressure, artery-hardening afternoon in store in W12.
Both these teams will be kicking around the bottom of the table come the end of the season, frantically searching for three worse sides to push below the dotted line. The fixtures have been unkind - QPR have Chelsea at home, Man City and Liverpool away in their last seven matches while West Brom finish with Liverpool and Chelsea at home and away games at Man Utd, Newcastle and Arsenal.
The return fixture between these clubs is on April 4, just prior to those nightmarish run ins commencing. One of those games where you smuggle a hip-flask in under your coat and try to stave off the panic attacks with hard liquor. That’s bad news for QPR, who still look no closer to winning an away match, whatever Harry Redknapp says, and have now lost all eight road games so far. With trips to Burnley, Sunderland and Hull on the horizon and at West Brom and, on the final day, Leicester further on they’re going to have to solve that problem double quick.
In the home games there’s a confidence about QPR. They’ve conceded the first goal in games more times than anybody else in the league this season - 12 - but against Leicester a goal against after four minutes simply saw Rangers flood forward in ever greater numbers to turn the game around before half time. Away from home a goal against automatically looks like the winner. That belief just isn’t there. The intensity isn’t there.
Both first half goals at Everton on Monday were the result of feckless play by Joey Barton. The specific problem with QPR’s captain remains his belief that he’s some sort of ball playing midfielder, capable of creating chances and spraying 50 yard passes left and right. He’s not, and never has been. He’s a grafter, who should stick to a Lee Cattermole/Jack Colback style game of running around, putting in tackles, making life difficult for opponents, and then handing the ball onto somebody who can actually pass. The wider problem is the poor pass for the first goal and pathetic foul for the second are just the kind of careless, lazy things Rangers are doing as a whole away from home at the moment all the time. It’s a "well we were never going to win anyway” attitude to mistakes on the road that just isn’t there at home.
Perhaps QPR are actually thriving on the pressure. The tension in the crowd makes the atmosphere crackle, the nervous energy in the team coupled with the confidence of home form adds a spring to their step - it’s all very much like the remarkable run Mark Hughes’ team went on to save themselves three seasons ago when Arsenal, Spurs, Swansea, Stoke and Liverpool were all beaten at Loftus Road in consecutive home matches to finish the season and stay in the top flight.
But that pressure is only increasing with each passing away defeat, and the quality of opponent is heading north as well. Villa, Burnley and Leicester have all been beaten on this ground of late but were poor teams playing poorly. West Brom aren’t up to much themselves - just three goals scored away from home this season, the same number our hapless lot have managed - but they’ll be better than the three that came before them, and Crystal Palace on the 28th better still with Bolasie and Zaha flying down both flanks and Neil Warnock no doubt keen to make a point on his first return to this corner of West London.
Harry Redknapp’s solution, for a change, is to try and sign more players, but he returned from a meeting with Tony Fernandes and the shareholders this week talking up a "couple of loan deals” - likely to be Emmanuel Adebayor, currently on compassionate leave in Africa where he believes his mother has put a witch’s curse on him, and Arsenal’s bandy-legged Yay Sanogo, or certainly players of that equivalent. It seems the purse strings have been pulled tight. Expect some news from the Football League about Financial Fair Play punishments shortly as well, just to add a disruptive element to proceedings ratchet up the need to avoid relegation another couple of bars.
The cause against the Baggies is not aided by the absence of Mauricio Isla, a key player in recent victories, who has returned home to Chile as his partner has given birth. His compatriot Eduardo Vargas sat out Newcastle away for the same reason. For goodness sake boys, put it away for five minutes would you, this relegation battle isn’t going to fight itself.
It’s a big game this one make no mistake.. A traditionally lean time of year results wise simply cannot be that again this Christmas. QPR have to continue to thrive in such situations rather than wilt
Links >>> The flaw in the model system - opposition profile >>> Cup shocks and Harford controversy - history >>> Pawson back in the Bush - referee >>> Permanent state of crisis - interview >>> Own goal punt can pay for your Christmas - betting
Dexter Blackstock celebrates with the QPR fans in the Lower Loft after equalising for the R’s against West Brom in this fixture in 2006/07. The goal cancelled out Kevin Phillips’ opener but sadly wasn’t enough to secure a point as Chris Brunt netted a late winner.
The good news for QPR is that imposing Swedish centre half Jonas Olsson, who has played superbly against the R’s in recent years, is injured. The bad news is so too is Georgios Samaras - a player so awful you wonder why you’re not playing professional football somewhere. Victor Anichebe (groin) and Chris Brunt (hamstring) are training again and could feature.
Elsewhere: Saturday’s match with West Brom could actually be a real opportunity for QPR. It’s easily the most winnable fixture any of the other sides at the bottom of the table have on Saturday with Leicester facing up to Big Fat Sam’s Bit Fat Brand of Entertaining Football at Upton Park, Burnley at Spurs, Sunderland lined up as Pards Pardew’s next Bunga Bunga Bar story, Villa hosting Louis Van Gaal and Tigers Tigers Rah Rah Rah at home to Swansea.
Throw in Villa’s eight injuries, Van Gaal’s run of seven straight victories, and the home side’s appalling record against the red side of Manchester and that looks a forgone conclusion. Sunderland manager Gus Poyet has tumbled in the sack race odds, down from thirties to tens this week, after a newspaper interview where he appeared to criticise the way the club signed players and what he’d be forced to put up with transfer market wise in January. Poyet, in my opinion, remains Sunderland’s biggest asset.
Of course, you may think this eight or nine-way tussle to avoid relegation is developing into an exciting and intriguing affair. But you’d be wrong. The games that matter this weekend are clearly The Men of Liverpool together as one collective whole unit v Arsenal on Super Duper Uber Megatron Sunday, Meticulous Mark and the Taffia against Big Racist John and the Boys on Monday, and Southampton’s inevitable slide down the table inevitably continuing against Everton at St Mary’s.
Referee: Despite controversial performances recently at Aston Villa v Leicester, Hull v Spurs and Palace v Chelsea, the Premier League is keeping faith with its newest official Craig Pawson and has sent him to Loftus Road this weekend. His last Rangers appointment was the opening day defeat against Hull City, one of only two losses suffered by QPR on this ground this year, when he awarded the R’s a late penalty kick which Charlie Austin missed. For his full QPR case file and recent stats please click here.
West Brom: The Baggies are strong defensively. The 20 goals they’ve shipped so far is the best defensive record from tenth down - West Ham in fourth have conceded 19. Irvine’s team has kept clean sheets in its last two games. Going forward they’ve scored 15, the same as bottom-placed Leicester and second-bottom Hull. Last week’s home win against ten-man Aston Villa was their first in six attempts and followed four defeats and a draw. They’ve won only two of the last 11 matches prior to this one. They’ve failed to score in four of the last six and only got a single goal in the other two. They have only scored three times on the road this season - a record only equalled by our own shot-shy Rangers.
Betting: Our resident professional odds compiler Owen Goulding tells us…
"This for me is what football is all about: a match at the beginning of the festive season, on a Saturday afternoon, everyone in good spirits about the weeks ahead, just how it should be.
"Rangers arrive back to Loftus Road after yet another battle on foreign territory which returned eleven beaten casualties. Charlie Austin will return for this game and one thing that should be evident is an attacking QPR team. Eleven goals scored in their last five home games only backs up the frustration that the travelling hoops faithful experience every other week but there seems no point in droning on about why they play completely different home than away - it is what it is and I can’t see anything changing while the current manager is in charge so let’s just concentrate on this game.
"West Brom have regressed in recent years and were lucky to retain their position in the Premier League last season. Alan Irvine is a less than inspiring boss for sure but their main problem (which can be partially attributed to the manager) is a distinct lack of creation from midfield. Craig Gardner huffs and puffs and in fact has been one of their shining lights during a poor season so far, but players such as Mulumbu, Brunt and Sessegnon who in recent times have been the main creating force for the Baggies, are having very indifferent seasons. Part of this is due to the negative tactics of the manager but the first chapter from the Alan Irvine book of tactics is not to concede and in truth he has partially succeeded as they have conceded fewer goals than any other team in the bottom half - a stat that can be strongly attributed to the good form of Joleon Lescott.
"Their problem is the other end of the pitch where only three teams have scored less than them in the whole of the league. The current match prices don't interest me as they give us no edge - 6/4 QPR, 12/5 the draw and 11/5 West Brom, but looking closer at the stats of the recent games involving both sides shine a light on a potential bet. The statistics show an alarming amount of own goals in the games in question. Two of West Brom's last three away goals have been scored by the opposition with five own goals coming in QPR's last five home games. So my bet for the game - given the nervousness of the teams involved and the potential for mistakes from both sides - is for an own goal being scored in this game at a price a lot bigger than it should be based on recent statistics.
Recommended bet: QPR v West Brom - Own Goal to be scored - 17/2 @PaddyPower
"Elsewhere my bet of the weekend comes Oop North where Scunthorpe return to league action after an energy sapping FA Cup trip across the country and a record breaking penaslty shootout. Fatigue is likely to be a factor for the Iron and coupled with an injury list that keeps mounting, the last place they want to go to is Valley Parade where the Bantams are starting a real promotion push and have a fully fit squad to chose from. The 10/11 available looks a must play.
Bet of Weekend: Bradford to beat Scunthorpe - 10/11 @ Betfair.
Big Price goal scorers:
Aaron Cresswell West Ham v Leicester - 17/1 Anytime @ Betway
Mark Hudson - Huddersfield v Birmingham - 12/1 Anytime - Betfred
Jordan Clarke - Yeovil v Colchester - 10/1 Anytime - PaddyPower
Prediction: Reigning Prediction League champion WestonSuperR tells us…
"After another disappointing away display on Monday night, the pressure is on to bounce back with a win against The Baggies. I'm increasingly concerned that we won't keep being able to win these crucial home matches against the sides in and around us and this is largely down to performance rather than results. I've not been massively impressed with us against either Leicester or Burnley, two poor teams and two teams that matched or bettered us for substantial portions of these matches.
"Of course with Austin back and the confidence we have at home anything is possibly but I worry about a defence that conceded two against Leicester and could easily have done the same v Burnley (thank you Rob Green!). As much as the heart will be despatch for a win I'm going to predict a score draw in this one.
John’s Prediction: QPR 1-1 West Brom. Goalscorer: Charlie Austin
LFW’s Prediction QPR 2-1 West Brom. Goalscorer: Charlie Austin
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