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The problem with the data approach is there is no metric to measure attitude / culture or team fit. All our data-based failures fall into the group of "good stats, but bad attitude / culture / poor fit" (Dozzell being the poster boy). This summer signings were basically all data based and sure enough... Ironic that the one thing Ainsworth did was prioritise culture over data with his signings, and a year on we are still pretty reliant on his signings.
Belk IMO should have learnt this lesson by now... stats alone are not enough... and certainly he has to learn from this summers intake otherwise he's basically a liability. But IMO Nourry has to take a lot of blame for me for sanctioning big fees based entirely on data with no regard for culture or fit.
While I agree with a lot of this - including that we made some sensible (Nardi, Morisson, Saito, Dembele) or worth the gamble signings (Varane, Hevertton given he was free), Nourry's big failing has been the allocation of our transfer budget. And the huge mistake here was Madsen (Celar is indeed cr@p, but I can personally forgive that one.... in the end strikers are tough to recruit, he had scored goals and it was 1.5m). As I said at the time (before even seeing him play), 2.5 to 3.5m for Madsen was not the best use of our limited budget. Nourry will have greenlit that transfer, and it's basically due to that poor decision (plus a couple of other ones) that we have no backup left back, no third striker, no midfield 8.... with a different use of that Madsen fee and a different decision on Dykes, none of those problems exist and with some depth maybe we're sitting in lower mid table instead of bottom.
If you're going to blow that figure on transfer fees at QPR these days you'd better be damn sure you've got it right. And Nourry could not have got it more wrong in a player who wasn't needed, isn't adapted to the league and doesn't fit in the team. Then you've got that long list of bizarre things he's also overseeing like head of performance being abroad and a mounting injury list, crap comms, etc etc.
While a few of us picked up on worrying signs before getting to the clusterf*** we are in now, reading the Nourry piece from last year, fair to say Clive (as well as Dave Mac) were pretty early in picking up the stench.
I remember writing about this time last year (just before Ainsworth got the boot) that the mess has got to the stage where we're probably at a stage where going down and rebuilding with someone competent in charge was probably the way forwards, hoping we do it right. While Marti pulled off a miracle last year to avoid this scenario, it begins to feel a bit like that again, except we actually have a competent manager who I don't see staying if we go down (indeed it would sadly be surprising to see him lasting the season at the moment); and even less trust in those above him than before. So if we go down, I'm very unsure we if we get that rebuild right. Worrying times.
Oh and BTW to finish on a bright note, we are also still in possession of one Taylor Richards, who will return to the fold at the end of the season indeed if not earlier (he's made a whopping two sub appearances for Cambridge, who must be getting royally p'd off with him and considering ending the loan.
Was thinking same on the corners. I don't get why he's back on them. Our upturn last season in set piece prowess - which greatly impacted results -coincided with Chair largely coming off corner duty (Andersen doing them), and continued early this season with Dembele. It's bizarre that a half fit Chair comes back in the team and immediately takes over corner duty from both sides. It's just one of the various weird things happening this season when compared to last - e.g. as someone else said elsewhere, where has the 5 sec counterpress, which worked so well, gone? Still largely much better last night and no coincidence that its when we have two passable DM performances.
Yep - agreed. While some may say too early to judge, ultimately he seems not what we needed and a poor use of our limited budget (FWIW I see some positive attributes, but not the ones we're crying out for).
Marti's now at a crossroads - try to accommodate him/build round him or relegate him to bit part as we build around other players. I fear, due to the price tag we'll end up on the former route. We've tried a variety of things with him. With the team we have I can only see one option left: 4-3-3 (or Christmas tree 4-3-2-1) with Varane and Field holding, Madsen floating up and down in the 3, charged with both being the option to get the ball out of defence and a middle of the pitch playmaker. Somewhere between 8 and 10. Given Field and Varane seem largely incapable of getting the ball forwards (and Varane so far looks lost once he passes the halfway line), it could work, but it could also lesser the impact of Dembele, Chair and Satio. I would not be surprised to see something like this tried on Tuesday.
Yep. That game was lost in center mid. Like the one before it. And the one before it. And, effectively, the one before it vs Hull because Varane got a red.
And, that, IMO goes down mainly to the CM signings - playing Madsen in a CM pair is like playing with 1 CM. While I think he has some skills, I also think he was not what we needed, is entirely unsuited to our team and seriously question if he ever will fit. Varane simply seems not ready yet, but surely has to be better than Madsen. The CM recruitment was well and truly messed up and its going to haunt us till Jan.
Regarding others, I stick to Dembele and Saito being good signings, but suffering from our CM problem; and Morrison and Nardi also being good signings. Agree the two RBs and Celar have so far looked pretty lightweight.
Bearing in mind that only about 1 in 3 signings are ever succcessful (at prem level at least), and its early I agree there are some warning signs among this intake.
I split personally split into 3 groups: 1. The "it made sense" group. Dembele. Played in England, ripped up L1. Morrison - ditto without the same extent of ripping up. Nardi. Keepers may be most transferable across leagues, and clearly had his 1 on 1 and passing strengths, though other weaknesses. Saito. Clear final third potential and basically a free try out to see if it works LT.
2. The "get it, but risky" group. Varane. Looks like the potential for DMC shield, but untested in England, barely tested in even La Liga 2 (big red flashing light). Bit overpriced for that when we need a solid, consistent DMC starter. Santos. Free, played lots of games in Portugal. But fundamentally a RWB - why sign him in a back 4 - and not suited for England based on what we've seen so far.
3. The "I don't get it" group. Madsen. Most expensive signing (probably in years), an 8 / 10 in a system which is never going to accommodated that, clearly a player whose always appreciated time on the ball you generally don't get in champ. Celar. Penalty box striker for a team which plays 1 striker up front, might be top scorer in Switzerland but 14 in 36 in that league.... is that really good for 1.5m? Ashby. Why develop for someone else a player who seems no great upgrade on Santos?
Ultimately, I agree the "algorithm" is flawed and mistakes have been made... but maybe mainly in terms of how we spent the limited budget we had
For the first time in ages we might have too many "options" in some areas and be trying too hard to shoehorn them in. There are things to like about Madsen, but I'm really not sure how he fits in a 4-2-3-1; and trying to accommodate him in it seems to be messing up the midfield balance - I'm not yet convinced he can play in the two (we become defensively too weak). Bearing in mind the price paid, he may actually be a signing too far (personally I'd rather we'd tied up dembele permanently now). Agree we are largely looking at accomodating a 3 of chair, dembele and one of saito/smyth/andersen behind Frey (also favour Saito at the mo on form, but hard to see where he plays if Chair stays AML). The two holding behind that would probably ideally come from Field, Collback and Varane with EDB (who is a bit like Madsen light) as backup. Madsen to me so far looks more like the 8/10 in a 4-3-3 and its hard to justify moving to 4-3-3 with the other players we have.
Yep. That's how to play the lone striker role. Loved the way he kept finding space to link the play, often by dropping deep, then busted a gut to get where he needed to be. Can't remember a striker having as good a game for us since, er....?
"He's been well and truly QPR'd" - he's on his way out / we've broken this one.
"Sign a striker" - (1) term which comes out every transfer window to indicate that a striker is the solution to the world's (or at least all QPR's) problems (2) when used with "brigade", term to disparage those who think signings might be needed, even when in reality signings might actually be needed.
Really excited about these two - well done the club for getting it over the line.
A couple of thoughts/points: - Saito - think his contract at Lommel is up end of the season, so probably a case of see where we all are at that time (if we want him permanently and he accepts our terms). - I think Andersen has historically been pretty injury prone and managing about 25 games a season the years before he joined us. So plenty of playing time for all. - Hopefully this allows Kolli to go out on loan, if not Bennie too. They could really benefit from a good loan with regular playing time. - Only slight downer is why Dembele change from a perm deal to loan-to-perm at last minute? I do wonder if the news on Cannon and the club being on the hook made them realise they were short a bit of cash (maybe the indemnity policy they have on Cannon has a high excess), and with Nourry clearly always cautious, the perm deal being switched to be sure the perm transfer occurs after a player sale.
Anyone think we might go this way at some point during the season? I know Marti's pref is 4-3-3, but there are some recent pointers that 3 at the back could be on the table - Hevertton seems more of a wing back than a full back. Think Paal would be a good WB and it seems more like Larkeche's natural position than FB where he's often looked exposed. - We've extended Jimmy, but it seems unlikely he'll consistently be the RB. We know he can't manage at CB in a 2 but is quite decent in a 3 and it seems unlikely we've extended him to keep him as backup. - Morrison signing - could well be prep for JCS leaving (seems likely he will), but the two at the back thing only really worked with the JCS and Cook pairing last season.
Reckon its on the table, at least for some games? Or have I entirely misread these early signs?
Yesterday was the first time I can remember Armstrong being pocketed like that. Sure he always has his limitations, but normally his pace and power terrify defenders. But in Diaby (I think it was) he came up against his match in strength and power, and probably from being older and a CB he was wilier. Armstrong probably was not the horse for the course yesterday, maybe Frey with his more subtle movement would have troubled Diaby more.
On Armstrong more broadly, he's simply doesn't seem to be developing enough. He still relies almost entirely on pace and power, which are rare assets in the game but not enough alone. His game intelligence still seems poor and he has a habit of switching off.. the joy he got yesterday was through running the channels, but the times he did it well, passing the ball to one of the AMs he kind of sauntered around, either admiring his work or catching a breather or both. Exactly the time he needs to either be busting a gut to get in the box, or positioning himself to work the ball into the box on 1-2s or alike.
Worth another contract IMO, if wage reflects his limited role, as his assets are so tough to find (remember we spent 2m on Bonne trying to get a fast forward and remember how that worked out!) But feels like he's 1-2 years behind where he should be in development, and if there isn't that development over the next 18 months or so, I agree he'll probably end up as an highly effective lower L1 to L2 forward based entirely on physicality, with no prospect of playing higher.
Strangely enough football seems to take on an added importance when everything in life goes to pot. They've been a couple of periods that personally football has been the main release valve during tough times - thankfully neither of them overlapped with this season or the 2014/15 season. For those in comparable positions this season, it has been grim. But ultimately OP is right, far more important things than footy in life.
Disco - sorry to hear and good luck fighting it fella.
Worth a watch if u've got a dead 10 mins or so. Apart from the massive feelgood factor from our most recent glory days, some behind the scenes stuff I personally had never heard about (some of it may be twisted - sure others know); and interesting summary of what happened to him after he left.
Interesting RE Hodge needing to play post injury (didn't realise he'd been injured). That would explain why they'd let him go for low/no wage contribution. Hayden on the other hand, surely we must be paying a part of his wages.
On the sentiment of transfer windows best being judged in hindsight - normally I'd agree. But given our threadbare squad, the mess we're in and the fact we were expecting no-one to come in, it would be quite something for these three ST signings to make things worse. And if they manage to make things worse, I'm really, really curious to see how (popcorn out time!)
Agreed, in view of our constraints this has been an excellent window, reinforcing the 2 positions we really had to in order to have a fighting chance.
Hayden is a particularly shrewd signing, given I think he can also cover RB and CB if needed.
Only nagging doubt is FFP - can see how shifting Dozzell and the other two could pay for 2 of our 3. Can't quite see how it pays for all 3. I do wonder if we'll see another sponsorship deal as they tighten the FFP calcs, or some other "cost saving".
Reusing two points which have been made time and time again
1. Standards for the whole team are defined by the lowest bar. If that bar involves someone not bothering to turn up to work then there is a big problem for team standards as a whole. Look at it another way, how do you feel in a job when you're consistently cleaning up someone's mess and/or they don't bother to turn up? (I'm sure we've all experienced that once, even if just a temp job... I remember at least one job I did way back where the whole "culture" sunk due to a major dosser; another case more recently where I was unfortunately managing the dosser and it was a fight to keep the ship straight till we got rid of them).
2. There comes a point where there are too many bad eggs and the whole culture of the squad suffers. I think Kevin Gallen recently said on a pod that from his experience this number is 3; lets say he's right, it's pretty clear why last season was a mess. This season we can argue we have/are reducing the bad eggs. Problem is the there is still reliance on a set of players have been part of last season's no/low standards squad. Hard to turn that form around. I suspect that, just like Dickie who's gone on to do fine after the change of team, we'll find out that many (my guesses - Field, Chair, Dunne, Dykes, Paal) will show themselves to be good champ players in a different environment.
It's depressing. But lets hope our new CEO has some idea how to somehow raise that lowest bar.
It was a poor game between two teams which played poorly. Huddersfield looked more up for it, but I think a draw was a fair result overall.
As said on another thread, the ref was utter gash, albeit without getting any one big decision wrong. He just got all the little ones wrong...almost all not in our favour. Cannon, while not being amazing was a big loss. Huddersfield basically relied on trying to toast a L2 RB (Drewe) thereafter; also working on the basis that a corner against us is a very good chance with their record. The takeaway here is our squad is paper thin and weak. But we knew that already.
I ultimately agree with the OP that with a draw we live to fight another day. We know we are better than we were today, we have shown it under Marti. But that said, largely cos we have such a paperthin squad which weakens massively if one or two players are out, I think odds of staying up are against us, maybe 60-40.
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