| Long balls vs forced short passing - is plan A dead? 23:41 - Oct 20 with 9081 views | Dr_Parnassus |
So we finally now find ourselves in a bit of form.
But there has been a notable shift from 800 passes a game with no willingness to go long to a more mixed direct approach which many were calling for very early on.
An earlier conversation got me thinking, is plan A now dead? For me that would be extremely encouraging.
I will work out the figures now, will post them regardless. But my money is on a distinct downturn in short balls and possession in our wins compared to our ‘non wins’. Here they are:-
Our 4 wins this season:-
Possession: 62.7%
Long ball %: 12.5%
Our 9 winless games this season:-
Possession: 67.2%
Long ball %: 8.1%
Doing these stats it was actually striking how poorly we perform when restricted to short passing.
That’s a 35% decrease in short passes in our wins vs the games we don’t win. That’s gigantic. Our possession also noticeably less in our wins.
It’s very interesting from a statistical stand point that our wins correlate with a more direct approach and I wonder if the Swansea analysts are earning their money and fed that to Martin. There does seem a distinct change.
I’m very grateful that despite what we were told by some, Martin is adaptable and can absolutely bin his plan A when it clearly isn’t bearing fruit.
Deserves credit for that, without question. |  |
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| Long balls vs forced short passing - is plan A dead? on 13:51 - Nov 25 with 1000 views | Catullus |
| Long balls vs forced short passing - is plan A dead? on 10:49 - Nov 25 by Dr_Parnassus |
Then your point of view is wrong then and another that doesn’t understand probability.
If you freely admit that the odds of us hitting 800 passes are long then you are saying it “probably” won’t happen. That is literally the definition of “probably” won’t.
Ben Hamer probably won’t score a hattrick for us next week. If he does that statement is still correct, the chances of it happening were slim and the chances of it happening were not “probable”… hence “probably”.
That doesn’t show anything remotely like plan A not being dead. It’s long gone, dead and buried. We now regularly have around 10% long balls and do not rely on the short at all costs game anymore, this has been demonstrated time after time.
Being “predominantly” a short ball team is not plan A. That would describe every single team in the league, short balls is by far the most common mode of pass. We were around 13/14% under Cooper.
Around 550-600 passes will be the norm, 8-12% long balls. |
There is a big difference between saying probably and probability. When you say probably won't happen it means you don't think it'll happen. A probability is the odds of something happening. If the probability is 1 in 23 games that mean the odds say it happens 1 in 23 times.
I'm not surprised you don't get that though, you don't understand what partisan means. You have trouble with semantics. |  |
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| Long balls vs forced short passing - is plan A dead? on 13:57 - Nov 25 with 995 views | Dr_Parnassus |
| Long balls vs forced short passing - is plan A dead? on 13:51 - Nov 25 by Catullus |
There is a big difference between saying probably and probability. When you say probably won't happen it means you don't think it'll happen. A probability is the odds of something happening. If the probability is 1 in 23 games that mean the odds say it happens 1 in 23 times.
I'm not surprised you don't get that though, you don't understand what partisan means. You have trouble with semantics. |
There is not. They mean the same.
Saying something probably won’t happen is the same as saying something is unlikely to happen. It means it may do, but it probably won’t or is unlikely to. It’s directly linked to probability. That’s just your lack of understanding of language.
But considering you don’t understand how being in favour of not re-electing someone can be partisan it’s not a massive surprise you don’t also understand the term “probably”. | |
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| Long balls vs forced short passing - is plan A dead? on 14:23 - Nov 25 with 970 views | magicdaps10 |
You were wrong Dr P, stop twisting it and accept it.
You are acting like a petulant child, take it on the chin or spout off... Either way you were wrong and it happened. |  |
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| Long balls vs forced short passing - is plan A dead? on 14:25 - Nov 25 with 965 views | Dr_Parnassus |
| Long balls vs forced short passing - is plan A dead? on 14:23 - Nov 25 by magicdaps10 |
You were wrong Dr P, stop twisting it and accept it.
You are acting like a petulant child, take it on the chin or spout off... Either way you were wrong and it happened. |
I understand you “want” me to be wrong. But as we have established many times, wanting me to be wrong and me actually being wrong are vastly different things.
You will have to wait for the next opportunity I’m afraid. Not getting anywhere with this one.  | |
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| Long balls vs forced short passing - is plan A dead? on 14:31 - Nov 25 with 957 views | Flynnidine_Zidownes |
An ex of mine once said I had long balls. | | | |
| Long balls vs forced short passing - is plan A dead? on 14:34 - Nov 25 with 952 views | YouBackJastard |
| Long balls vs forced short passing - is plan A dead? on 14:31 - Nov 25 by Flynnidine_Zidownes |
An ex of mine once said I had long balls. |
Chuck that one on the CV | | | |
| Long balls vs forced short passing - is plan A dead? on 14:40 - Nov 25 with 944 views | magicdaps10 |
| Long balls vs forced short passing - is plan A dead? on 14:31 - Nov 25 by Flynnidine_Zidownes |
An ex of mine once said I had long balls. |
Are you sure she did because probability is you might have misheard 😂 | |
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| Long balls vs forced short passing - is plan A dead? on 14:58 - Nov 25 with 901 views | Badlands |
| Long balls vs forced short passing - is plan A dead? on 13:57 - Nov 25 by Dr_Parnassus |
There is not. They mean the same.
Saying something probably won’t happen is the same as saying something is unlikely to happen. It means it may do, but it probably won’t or is unlikely to. It’s directly linked to probability. That’s just your lack of understanding of language.
But considering you don’t understand how being in favour of not re-electing someone can be partisan it’s not a massive surprise you don’t also understand the term “probably”. |
Probable and probability only mean the same thing only when the sentence arranged to form th common meaning.
It is probable that we will pick up a yellow card on Saturday.
In all probability we will pick up a yellow card.
'probability' is a mathematical term which means the extent to which something is likely to happen and is reliant on a fractional value.
You are both right. |  |
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| Long balls vs forced short passing - is plan A dead? on 15:02 - Nov 25 with 895 views | Dr_Parnassus |
| Long balls vs forced short passing - is plan A dead? on 14:58 - Nov 25 by Badlands |
Probable and probability only mean the same thing only when the sentence arranged to form th common meaning.
It is probable that we will pick up a yellow card on Saturday.
In all probability we will pick up a yellow card.
'probability' is a mathematical term which means the extent to which something is likely to happen and is reliant on a fractional value.
You are both right. |
Indeed. One is derived from the other.
Stating something “probably will” happen suggests it is a finding based on the the probability of that event occurring or not occurring.
Saying something probably won’t happen immediately after a sentence declaring something definitely won’t; suggests that “probably won’t” is entirely open to the fact it may, but is not probable. | |
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| Long balls vs forced short passing - is plan A dead? on 15:06 - Nov 25 with 890 views | PatchesOHoulihan |
| Long balls vs forced short passing - is plan A dead? on 15:02 - Nov 25 by Dr_Parnassus |
Indeed. One is derived from the other.
Stating something “probably will” happen suggests it is a finding based on the the probability of that event occurring or not occurring.
Saying something probably won’t happen immediately after a sentence declaring something definitely won’t; suggests that “probably won’t” is entirely open to the fact it may, but is not probable. |
How is this thread still going? |  |
| This is Patches O'Houlihan saying "Take care of your balls, and they'll take care of you." |
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| Long balls vs forced short passing - is plan A dead? on 15:09 - Nov 25 with 883 views | Dr_Parnassus |
| Long balls vs forced short passing - is plan A dead? on 15:06 - Nov 25 by PatchesOHoulihan |
How is this thread still going? |
Because someone bumped it without reading it properly.
Since then it’s the usual nonsense of an incorrectly bumped thread. | |
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| Long balls vs forced short passing - is plan A dead? on 15:46 - Nov 25 with 857 views | magicdaps10 |
| Long balls vs forced short passing - is plan A dead? on 15:06 - Nov 25 by PatchesOHoulihan |
How is this thread still going? |
Because 1 month ago it was said that we probably won't make over 800 passes in a game again but we did it yesterday.
A poster pointed out what happened and there has been a lot of squirming and a total lack of admittance.
Oh a double irony 😠| |
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| Long balls vs forced short passing - is plan A dead? on 16:28 - Nov 25 with 843 views | ReslovenSwan1 |
Swansea v Hull. Hull park the bus. Not too many long ball and Hull let Swansea have the ball. Plan A supposedly.
Two months later Barnsley park the bus and let Swansea have the ball.
Has plan A just returned or is it the opposition determining pass numbers and long balls? |  |
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| Long balls vs forced short passing - is plan A dead? on 16:38 - Nov 25 with 839 views | 34dfgdf54 |
| Long balls vs forced short passing - is plan A dead? on 15:46 - Nov 25 by magicdaps10 |
Because 1 month ago it was said that we probably won't make over 800 passes in a game again but we did it yesterday.
A poster pointed out what happened and there has been a lot of squirming and a total lack of admittance.
Oh a double irony 😠|
“Gentleman’s bet” it wouldn’t happen.
890 odd yesterday. Again, pretty simple. |  | | |
| Long balls vs forced short passing - is plan A dead? on 17:51 - Nov 25 with 801 views | Dr_Parnassus |
| Long balls vs forced short passing - is plan A dead? on 15:46 - Nov 25 by magicdaps10 |
Because 1 month ago it was said that we probably won't make over 800 passes in a game again but we did it yesterday.
A poster pointed out what happened and there has been a lot of squirming and a total lack of admittance.
Oh a double irony 😠|
No squirming at all.
It was a direct consequence of an anomaly, 80% possession. A complete rarity, meaning the “probably” not was entirely correct.
This is really, really easy. | |
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| Long balls vs forced short passing - is plan A dead? on 18:00 - Nov 25 with 791 views | Dr_Parnassus |
| Long balls vs forced short passing - is plan A dead? on 16:38 - Nov 25 by 34dfgdf54 |
“Gentleman’s bet” it wouldn’t happen.
890 odd yesterday. Again, pretty simple. |
So you bumped a suggested bet that nobody had the peanuts to take.... presumably because of the lack of probability of it happening.
You are going to have to start taking these bets if you want the bragging rights, otherwise its simply an offered bet that nobody had the confidence to take for exactly the same reason as it was offered initially.
Seems everyone agreed with me after all regarding its probability.
Easy.
''Peanuts! Get yerrrr peanuts!'' | |
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| Long balls vs forced short passing - is plan A dead? on 18:16 - Nov 25 with 776 views | magicdaps10 |
| Long balls vs forced short passing - is plan A dead? on 17:51 - Nov 25 by Dr_Parnassus |
No squirming at all.
It was a direct consequence of an anomaly, 80% possession. A complete rarity, meaning the “probably” not was entirely correct.
This is really, really easy. |
You are squirming.
Quite regular the person who squirms is unable to see it and will be in denial to it and will tend to try and prove their right by going on and on. | |
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| Long balls vs forced short passing - is plan A dead? on 18:19 - Nov 25 with 773 views | Dr_Parnassus |
| Long balls vs forced short passing - is plan A dead? on 18:16 - Nov 25 by magicdaps10 |
You are squirming.
Quite regular the person who squirms is unable to see it and will be in denial to it and will tend to try and prove their right by going on and on. |
No need to squirm by boy, you chaps proved me right.
Probability wasn’t high of it happening, needed an anomaly. Hence why you wouldn’t touch the bet with a barge pole.
Hence the “probably”.
But as you say you denial is probably a sign of you struggling to get this one past the line, and there was two of you and everything. 
Next time maybe? | |
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| Long balls vs forced short passing - is plan A dead? on 18:24 - Nov 25 with 766 views | 34dfgdf54 |
| Long balls vs forced short passing - is plan A dead? on 18:22 - Nov 25 by Dr_Parnassus |
My track record is spotless on here.
If you want those bragging rights, you need to reach for those peanuts.
It’s the way it is, otherwise you are bumping an empty bet slip expecting to get paid.
I’m afraid the cashier took one look at it, crumpled it up and has just put it in the bin.
🥜 🥜 |
Sometimes a happy delusion is better than a grim reality I believe the saying goes.
Good on ew. | | | |
| Long balls vs forced short passing - is plan A dead? on 18:26 - Nov 25 with 763 views | Dr_Parnassus |
| Long balls vs forced short passing - is plan A dead? on 18:24 - Nov 25 by 34dfgdf54 |
Sometimes a happy delusion is better than a grim reality I believe the saying goes.
Good on ew. |
Well at least you have got something I guess.
You having some happy delusion is far better than a fantasy list with empty peanut shells on them.
But I suppose they are one and the same 🥜 | |
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