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An Australian professor of Data Analytics from Griffith University who predicted Trump’s first win, the Australian Federal Election(when all the polls said the opposite) and Brexit has called it - Trump will be re-elected for another 4 years. You heard it here first.
I have to say, as a side issue, the live updates on the BBC website are fcking atrocious. All about reaction, nothing about facts, figures, what's happened, what's still to happen. "How are European leaders reacting?" "What does the German foreign minister think of this?" "What do these Cuban voters in Florida make of it all?"
Who. Fcking. Cares? When did the fcking vox pop take over journalism? I want facts. I want numbers. I could not give a single fcking sht what the EU's chief diplomat thinks at this moment. I'm getting better updates on this from this bloody thread.
The Day Today predicted all this...this is the state of mainstream media these days!
Must have heard me. 13.57, first time for several hours, a proper succinct run down of where we are.
The election coverage on CNN is quite good. Their political bias aside, they have 2 guys who go through each of the maps and break down voting on a county by county level, often comparing 2020 against 2016 and providing other useful insight.... one of the map guys (John king) is an absolute wizard and is always the MVP of election nite in us
I have to say, as a side issue, the live updates on the BBC website are fcking atrocious. All about reaction, nothing about facts, figures, what's happened, what's still to happen. "How are European leaders reacting?" "What does the German foreign minister think of this?" "What do these Cuban voters in Florida make of it all?"
Who. Fcking. Cares? When did the fcking vox pop take over journalism? I want facts. I want numbers. I could not give a single fcking sht what the EU's chief diplomat thinks at this moment. I'm getting better updates on this from this bloody thread.
Here’s what the German minister said ...
Edit: looks like me and the chef have served up a double helping of Peter O'Hanraha-hanrahan-Hanraha-hanrahanrahanrahanrahan.
The pollsters need to have a good look at the models they have been using. Last time out, they didn't give enough credence to the votes of the non College degree voters. It seems they didn't re-weight the models any where near sufficiently.
It's going to boil down to whether the postal votes are as heavily biased towards Biden as has been predicted. If that is the case, Biden will probably take Wisconsin and Michigan which should push him over the line.
Even so, it's a lot closer than most pollsters predicted.
"Travel is fatal to prejudice, bigotry and narrow-mindedness, and many of our people need it sorely on these accounts. Broad, wholesome, charitable views of men and things cannot be acquired by vegetating in one little corner of the Earth all one's lifetime." (Mark Twain)
Find me on twitter @derbyhoop and now on Bluesky
How do you figure that? As far as I can see, he has to hold onto Wisconsin, and overturn slight leads in either Michigan or North Carolina.
Looking likely that Biden will win narrow victories in Michigan/Wisconsin. However probably won't be finalized for a while as I believe it takes Nevada a few days to declare. Unless he manages to scrape a win elsewhere.
The election coverage on CNN is quite good. Their political bias aside, they have 2 guys who go through each of the maps and break down voting on a county by county level, often comparing 2020 against 2016 and providing other useful insight.... one of the map guys (John king) is an absolute wizard and is always the MVP of election nite in us
The election coverage on CNN is quite good. Their political bias aside, they have 2 guys who go through each of the maps and break down voting on a county by county level, often comparing 2020 against 2016 and providing other useful insight.... one of the map guys (John king) is an absolute wizard and is always the MVP of election nite in us
Agreed. He was superb last night. MSNBC's stats wiz was excellent as well.
"The opposite of love, after all, is not hate, but indifference."
Looking likely that Biden will win narrow victories in Michigan/Wisconsin. However probably won't be finalized for a while as I believe it takes Nevada a few days to declare. Unless he manages to scrape a win elsewhere.
[Post edited 4 Nov 2020 14:21]
FWIW, assorted comments from 538:
Nevada - Friday likely Michigan - ditto Wisconsin - partial recount likely Georgia - one or two days N. Carolina - accepting posted ballots until 12 Nov
"The opposite of love, after all, is not hate, but indifference."
Biden ahead in Michigan and Wisconsin now. Won't need Pennsylvania or Georgia if he gets those two plus Arizona and Nevada
It would be nice if this happens, especially after everything the Republicans have done to stop Pennsylvania from processing the ballots before election day.
Trump declares votes counted after the polls close as "Fraud", DeJoy Slows the delivery of mail down and removes hundreds of post boxes (along with not allowing processing of mail in ballots before election day), all done specifically to nobble Pennsylvania. The whole thing stinks so how sweet it would be if Biden wins without Pennsylvania and all their cheating was for nothing.
Nevada - Friday likely Michigan - ditto Wisconsin - partial recount likely Georgia - one or two days N. Carolina - accepting posted ballots until 12 Nov
Before Cameron won his last election with a healthy majority the polls were predicting a hung parliament all day long.
But Cameron had Lynton Crosby on his team. Lynton knew that winning elections was about winning marginal voters and set his door-door campaigners out every day with a variety of messages and every night he collated the results. Very quickly he worked which people in which parts of the county found which policies attractive and then doubled down on those. Then modelled all the results.
The folks in Tory HQ knew they'd won by 11.30 pm on election night and, what's more, predicted the majority pretty much exactly. Everybody outside was baffled.
Like him or loathe him you have to look past Trump and to his strategists because if he wins it's because of tactics like this and more fool the Democrats for not figuring this stuff out.
It's all about good data, gathered at the doorstep and decent tech to do the analysis.
At the end of the day, these elections are often won by a minuscule number of votes.
But Cameron didn't win that Election with marginal voters though? In fact there was actually a small swing from Con to Lab of just over 1%. The tories won 8 seats from Lab, and Lab won 10 seats from the Tories.
But the Tories took 27 seat from the Liberal heartland of the Lib Dems who deserted them for Cameron, mostly in the South West. So what you've said there doesn't really ring true
Which in part lays the problem for polling in the US. You've got to think of it like having 52 constituencies - you can poll nationally to the margin of error but developing robust samples for individual states is v difficult
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