| Theresa May 15:28 - May 25 with 7426 views | Shun |
Just because this place hasn’t seen a lively debate in a while, what does everyone make of her resignation?
While I feel that ultimately her legacy will be one of failure, I do have a tremendous amount of sympathy for her. So did she let down the country, or was she let down by her party? |  | | |  |
| Theresa May on 10:18 - May 27 with 2521 views | steofthedale |
| Theresa May on 19:40 - May 25 by SuddenLad |
It was Cameron who dropped us all in the swamp. Promised a referendum to ensure a return to power and then beggared off, leaving others to deal with the mayhem it caused.
Took the easy option, along with some of his cohorts and sought a life outside politics, laughing all the way to the bank..... |
I am of the opinion that Cameron's promise of a referendum was one he thought he would never need to deliver as a further coalition after the general election was expected rather than a surprise majority.
Whilst some consider that Brexit is a consequence of internal Conservative divisions, it cannot be denied that it clearly demonstrated the UK to be significantly polarised on Europe. With the "political" majority being significantly pro EU a considerable proportion of the electorate were essentially disenfranchised on this issue.
Having allowed an opinion to be so clearly expressed there is no way to put that particular genie back in the bottle. [Post edited 27 May 2019 10:19]
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| Theresa May on 10:45 - May 27 with 2477 views | BigDaveMyCock |
The Euro election results don’t really tell us all that much, in that, UKIP finished first in the previous 2014 Euro elections with 28% of the vote. The Brexit Party finished first with 33%, albeit with a much lower Conservative vote this time. This tells us that UKIP voters and leave Conservatives are voting for the Brexit Party - quelle suprise.
However, the combined Labour/Lib Dem/Green vote is far bigger than the Brexit Party vote and even bigger than the Brexit Party, UKIP and combined Conservative vote.
If the Euro elections were a second referendum, as some would contest, then it looks like remain/second referendum would have won. [Post edited 27 May 2019 11:13]
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| Theresa May on 11:25 - May 27 with 2417 views | isitme |
But if you run the results by constituency then the Brexit party won over 460 constituencies which would be a landslide general election result win. The turn out was much lower than the referendum and also assumptions are being made about the intentions of tory/labour and even some green voters regarding Europe.
Statistics can be used many ways to represent what ever point people are trying to make. |  | | |
| Theresa May on 11:33 - May 27 with 2406 views | BigDaveMyCock |
| Theresa May on 11:25 - May 27 by isitme |
But if you run the results by constituency then the Brexit party won over 460 constituencies which would be a landslide general election result win. The turn out was much lower than the referendum and also assumptions are being made about the intentions of tory/labour and even some green voters regarding Europe.
Statistics can be used many ways to represent what ever point people are trying to make. |
Totally agree, just crude arithmetic. My point was that it was not a resounding victory for leave. In fact remain parties did better overall. UKIP performed equally as good in elections such as this but have never won a seat in a General Election (even when Nige has stood himself) so I’m not sure about the landslide point. What can be said is that the mobilisation of the Brexit vote is being counterbalanced by an equally if not larger mobilisation of the remain vote. Also, I wasn’t one who was saying that the Euro elections represented something of a second referendum. That was somebody else. [Post edited 27 May 2019 11:36]
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| Theresa May on 11:40 - May 27 with 2399 views | D_Alien |
| Theresa May on 11:25 - May 27 by isitme |
But if you run the results by constituency then the Brexit party won over 460 constituencies which would be a landslide general election result win. The turn out was much lower than the referendum and also assumptions are being made about the intentions of tory/labour and even some green voters regarding Europe.
Statistics can be used many ways to represent what ever point people are trying to make. |
Couldn't have put it better myself
I agree with BDMC in one respect, that combining assumed or actual referendum positions would seem to provide a larger share of the vote for the Remain camp - but there is a major assumption involved whereas those who voted for the Brexit party are unequivocal
Just as an example of what i mean, there would've been a great many people who voted Labour at the last general election who were essentially Remainers, whereas Labour stood on a platform to Leave
Both sides of the EU debate will claim the upper hand, but both might be wrong, and i include in that the assumption that i made that the turnout for the Brexit Party would put a second referendum to bed - it clearly hasn't
[Post edited 27 May 2019 11:44]
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| Theresa May on 14:03 - May 27 with 2321 views | DaleiLama |
Politics the musical
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| Theresa May on 16:58 - May 27 with 2256 views | steofthedale |
| Theresa May on 10:45 - May 27 by BigDaveMyCock |
The Euro election results don’t really tell us all that much, in that, UKIP finished first in the previous 2014 Euro elections with 28% of the vote. The Brexit Party finished first with 33%, albeit with a much lower Conservative vote this time. This tells us that UKIP voters and leave Conservatives are voting for the Brexit Party - quelle suprise.
However, the combined Labour/Lib Dem/Green vote is far bigger than the Brexit Party vote and even bigger than the Brexit Party, UKIP and combined Conservative vote.
If the Euro elections were a second referendum, as some would contest, then it looks like remain/second referendum would have won. [Post edited 27 May 2019 11:13]
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And yet according to the Lib Dem's own publicity, brexit was actually overwhelmingly endorsed. [Post edited 27 May 2019 17:03]
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| Theresa May on 17:35 - May 27 with 2214 views | sweetcorn |
Putting a remainer in charge of a country heading for brexit always seemed destined to fail i’d say.. |  |
| Leader of the little gang of immature cretins. |
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| Theresa May on 19:56 - May 27 with 2150 views | BigDaveMyCock |
| Theresa May on 16:58 - May 27 by steofthedale |
And yet according to the Lib Dem's own publicity, brexit was actually overwhelmingly endorsed. [Post edited 27 May 2019 17:03]
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Yeah, a bit stupid that. Although from their perspective it’s worked.
The Brexit Party’s vote is now being put at 31.6%. Considering UKIP got 27.5% in 2014 (and only got 3.5% this time) the Brexit Party’s showing isn’t that impressive at all, especially when you consider the collapse in the Tory vote. The only thing that’s happened is the Brexit Party has replaced UKIP. | |
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| Theresa May on 21:21 - May 27 with 2088 views | mingthemerciless |
| Theresa May on 19:56 - May 27 by BigDaveMyCock |
Yeah, a bit stupid that. Although from their perspective it’s worked.
The Brexit Party’s vote is now being put at 31.6%. Considering UKIP got 27.5% in 2014 (and only got 3.5% this time) the Brexit Party’s showing isn’t that impressive at all, especially when you consider the collapse in the Tory vote. The only thing that’s happened is the Brexit Party has replaced UKIP. |
Old dogs, new collars. | | | |
| Theresa May on 09:31 - May 28 with 1988 views | fermin |
| Theresa May on 19:56 - May 27 by BigDaveMyCock |
Yeah, a bit stupid that. Although from their perspective it’s worked.
The Brexit Party’s vote is now being put at 31.6%. Considering UKIP got 27.5% in 2014 (and only got 3.5% this time) the Brexit Party’s showing isn’t that impressive at all, especially when you consider the collapse in the Tory vote. The only thing that’s happened is the Brexit Party has replaced UKIP. |
There is also the collapse in the Labour vote. It seems to me that Labour have more of a problem than the Tories based on these results. If the Tories go full no-deal Brexit there would be a minority of Tory members and voters whom that would upset. However, with Labour, looking from the outside it appears that most of the party membership and activists are Remainers who often simplistically regard Leave voters as stupid racists, whereas they are led by a Eurosceptic and have a significant proportion of their voters wanting Brexit. They have to balance out Labour voters in places like Islington and Bristol (both of which went LibDem or Green) and those in, say, Barnsley and Bolsover who are strongly Brexit.
I also think it is a bit dangerous to extrapolate from these results to that of the referendum when the turnout is about 35% lower than it was in 2016. This shows that a large number of people are bored with it all, do not care or did not think the results would make any difference to what will happen. Who knows how they would vote if there was a second referendum which had some import. A second referendum would still be very close is all you can really say.
I don't think it is particularly easy to assign the Conservative and Labour % to one side of the other. I expect that with these parties there will be voters who just vote for them out of habit rather than conviction regarding the EU. Maybe some of the Labour voters were supporting Brexit but with a some kind of deal.
As a side note, my brother has lived in Austria for over 30 years now. He follows politics avidly, particularly within the UK and US. He has a particular political viewpoint which I take with a pinch of salt on occasions but for these purposes he is strongly pro-Brexit in principle but rather dismissive of the politicians involved since the referendum. HIs view is that Britainˋs reputation as a serious, reliable and honest partner has been seriously damaged by Theresa Mayˋs behaviour in the last two years, but Boris Johnson, above all during the Skripal affair, made his own considerable contribution to this disastrous state of affairs. He thinks that those living in Britain are probably not not aware of the extent to which Britain has become both a laughing-stock and a source of annoyance in continental Europe. So, given that Britain may well have to negotiate new agreements with the EU on the basis of a No Deal / WTO Brexit, Theresa May has caused lasting and serious damage to Britainˋs foreign relations.
Those of you interested in this subject might like to read the following (written a few weeks ago):
https://ukcitizensinaustria.wordpress.com/2019/05/09/brexit-sir-ivan-rogers-at-t |  | | |
| Theresa May on 09:58 - May 28 with 1963 views | D_Alien |
| Theresa May on 09:31 - May 28 by fermin |
There is also the collapse in the Labour vote. It seems to me that Labour have more of a problem than the Tories based on these results. If the Tories go full no-deal Brexit there would be a minority of Tory members and voters whom that would upset. However, with Labour, looking from the outside it appears that most of the party membership and activists are Remainers who often simplistically regard Leave voters as stupid racists, whereas they are led by a Eurosceptic and have a significant proportion of their voters wanting Brexit. They have to balance out Labour voters in places like Islington and Bristol (both of which went LibDem or Green) and those in, say, Barnsley and Bolsover who are strongly Brexit.
I also think it is a bit dangerous to extrapolate from these results to that of the referendum when the turnout is about 35% lower than it was in 2016. This shows that a large number of people are bored with it all, do not care or did not think the results would make any difference to what will happen. Who knows how they would vote if there was a second referendum which had some import. A second referendum would still be very close is all you can really say.
I don't think it is particularly easy to assign the Conservative and Labour % to one side of the other. I expect that with these parties there will be voters who just vote for them out of habit rather than conviction regarding the EU. Maybe some of the Labour voters were supporting Brexit but with a some kind of deal.
As a side note, my brother has lived in Austria for over 30 years now. He follows politics avidly, particularly within the UK and US. He has a particular political viewpoint which I take with a pinch of salt on occasions but for these purposes he is strongly pro-Brexit in principle but rather dismissive of the politicians involved since the referendum. HIs view is that Britainˋs reputation as a serious, reliable and honest partner has been seriously damaged by Theresa Mayˋs behaviour in the last two years, but Boris Johnson, above all during the Skripal affair, made his own considerable contribution to this disastrous state of affairs. He thinks that those living in Britain are probably not not aware of the extent to which Britain has become both a laughing-stock and a source of annoyance in continental Europe. So, given that Britain may well have to negotiate new agreements with the EU on the basis of a No Deal / WTO Brexit, Theresa May has caused lasting and serious damage to Britainˋs foreign relations.
Those of you interested in this subject might like to read the following (written a few weeks ago):
https://ukcitizensinaustria.wordpress.com/2019/05/09/brexit-sir-ivan-rogers-at-t |
Good post
And an interesting piece by a senior diplomat, clearly put together from that perspective, somewhat removed from the reality of the political fray of having to attract votes from Joe Public. Many valid points, but no ideas on how to resolve the political divisions other than to maintain the status quo which he and his fellow diplomats are no doubt aghast at having disturbed | |
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| Theresa May on 10:21 - May 28 with 1941 views | tony_roch975 |
| Theresa May on 10:45 - May 27 by BigDaveMyCock |
The Euro election results don’t really tell us all that much, in that, UKIP finished first in the previous 2014 Euro elections with 28% of the vote. The Brexit Party finished first with 33%, albeit with a much lower Conservative vote this time. This tells us that UKIP voters and leave Conservatives are voting for the Brexit Party - quelle suprise.
However, the combined Labour/Lib Dem/Green vote is far bigger than the Brexit Party vote and even bigger than the Brexit Party, UKIP and combined Conservative vote.
If the Euro elections were a second referendum, as some would contest, then it looks like remain/second referendum would have won. [Post edited 27 May 2019 11:13]
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As a Remain voter, I'm a believer in implementing the 1st democratic decision before taking the 2nd - the old PM moves out of No 10 before there's another General Election. Understand the desire by Remain side to see 'evidence' for a 2nd Referendum they think they'd win (Cameron did too!) but I don't see how that helps - it would merely reaffirm that we are a divided and angry country. The challenge is what happens to the 'losers' - from whichever side; not exchanging one set of 'losers' for another. Wanting the other side to go away or disappear might be tempting - as a fan I might want Dale's opponents to lose but I need those opponents, valued and respected or the game's worthless. | |
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| Theresa May on 10:51 - May 28 with 1918 views | pioneer |
| Theresa May on 09:58 - May 28 by D_Alien |
Good post
And an interesting piece by a senior diplomat, clearly put together from that perspective, somewhat removed from the reality of the political fray of having to attract votes from Joe Public. Many valid points, but no ideas on how to resolve the political divisions other than to maintain the status quo which he and his fellow diplomats are no doubt aghast at having disturbed |
Unfortunately it sweeps aside the prospects of a Canadian style free trade deal simply on the basis that the volume of trade between UK and rest of EU is 40 times bigger.
I cannot claim any expertise on allthings Brexit but have yet to see a clear explanation as to why a similar deal to Canada’s is a non starter.
Does anyone on here have the answer? | | | |
| Theresa May on 18:16 - May 28 with 1829 views | BigDaveMyCock |
Some of the current runners for the PM job are making exactly the same mistake, that is, providing big bold promises with little consideration as to how to achieve them given the current parliamentary situation. Raab, Leadsom and Johnson are all saying they will lead the UK out on 31 October without a deal. They, however, shouldn’t be saying that because it may be beyond their power to do so. In their enthusiasm to appear strong they are committing themselves to delivering something that may be undeliverable - by them at this specific time at least. This will only contribute to the disappointment for (hard) Brexiters which Farage will exploit, and he can because he doesn’t have to actually deliver Brexit. As we’re finding out, talking Brexit is considerably easier than actually delivering it.
Although probably the most unfashionable of the declared runners, there is an honesty to Rory Stewart’s pitch. He will, however, fail because he’s not telling the members what they want to hear - big bold bullshit promises. [Post edited 28 May 2019 18:21]
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| Theresa May on 19:39 - May 28 with 1787 views | ArthurDaley |
| Theresa May on 17:35 - May 27 by sweetcorn |
Putting a remainer in charge of a country heading for brexit always seemed destined to fail i’d say.. |
Think i saw somewhere Corbin was a leaver who pretends to want to remain and mother Theresa was a remainer who pretends to want to leave. You really couldn't make it up.
Just one thought, if our totally useless politicians give the two fingers to the 17 million plus, who voted to leave, have a so called peoples vote ( seems leavers aren't people ) on leaving the eu and the remoaners win the vote to stay in Europe. The leavers kick up a fuss and demand another vote on leaving would we have one. It could be the best of 3, or even the best of 5 or even 7. |  |
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| Theresa May on 19:51 - May 28 with 1781 views | tony_roch975 |
| Theresa May on 10:51 - May 28 by pioneer |
Unfortunately it sweeps aside the prospects of a Canadian style free trade deal simply on the basis that the volume of trade between UK and rest of EU is 40 times bigger.
I cannot claim any expertise on allthings Brexit but have yet to see a clear explanation as to why a similar deal to Canada’s is a non starter.
Does anyone on here have the answer? |
Canada style deal would be mainly about Trade, minimally about Services which are 80% of our trade. Would offer a looser trading relationship with Brussels. It would enable UK to sign free trade deals with other countries and have far greater control over immigration. But it would mean Northern Ireland would remain a part of the EU customs union thereby either establishing a border in the Irish Sea, or on the island of Ireland. | |
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| Theresa May on 20:15 - May 28 with 1756 views | 49thseason |
It seems as though the die is cast and we leave on 31st October either because we approve Mays plan or because the EU has said if no approval then out we go. The EU has a meeting in June but there won't be a UK Prime Minister to attend by then. Boris or someone might turn up sometime in July to find there is no wiggle room because nothing changed at the June EU meeting. The EU seems to have ruled out further negation of Mays deal so WTO here we come. |  | | |
| Theresa May on 22:11 - Jun 20 with 1528 views | DaleiLama |
This is quite amusing as her replacements were whittled down to 2.
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