| Davs Mathematical Safety Graph is up to date and uploaded 18:13 - Apr 16 with 5429 views | Davillin |
How to read the "Mathematical Safety" chart.
Mathematical safety is based on two assumptions: (1) the Swans will win no more points this season, and (2) any other team on the chart will win all of their remaining games.
Important note: Each team is to be seen separately from the others. It is not a "table," but one chart containing information from several charts. You are invited to compare Swansea with any one team at a time.
For those of you who are concerned that "two teams cannot both get three points from the same game," those games are in the future, and the point of the chart is to show a projection of how each team will finish the season according to the two assumptions in the first paragraph, above, and separately against the Swans. After two such teams have played each other, the winner will get 3 points and the loser 0, and if they draw, each will get 1, and the world will be at peace again for a time.
Read it by comparing any two teams' number at the end of its graph line. When three teams have a projected number lower than the Swans, the Swans are mathematically safe.
The chart also will show how each team is trending as the season draws to an end.
The chart will be updated after every Swansea game. It fully takes into account games in hand.
This chart is NOT a conclusion, but a "process" which will end when Swansea's safety from relegation has been mathematically demonstrated by any three other teams having fewer projected points than the Swans do.
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Addendum: If the chart is too small for your screen, copy the incomplete URL immediately below, paste it into your browser's find box, then add .jpg to the end, and click.
davillin.info/MathSafety [then add .jpg to the end]
[Post edited 2 May 2016 2:15]
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| Davs Mathematical Safety Graph is up to date and uploaded on 18:16 - Apr 16 with 4196 views | lifelong |
I have to say Dav, I try to make sense of it all but that 3rd graph has done my head in, I'm going to crack open a can of Stella Artois.... Cheers. |  | | |
| Davs Mathematical Safety Graph is up to date and uploaded on 18:17 - Apr 16 with 4190 views | Phil_S |
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| Davs Mathematical Safety Graph is up to date and uploaded on 18:32 - Apr 16 with 4155 views | morningstar |
| Davs Mathematical Safety Graph is up to date and uploaded on 18:17 - Apr 16 by Phil_S |
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Never had you down as a scaremonger! |  |
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| Davs Mathematical Safety Graph is up to date and uploaded on 19:16 - Apr 16 with 4100 views | Phil_S |
| Davs Mathematical Safety Graph is up to date and uploaded on 18:32 - Apr 16 by morningstar |
Never had you down as a scaremonger! |
I'm all sorts of things these days Gar. All sorts. | | | |
| Davs Mathematical Safety Graph is up to date and uploaded on 19:21 - Apr 16 with 4084 views | morningstar |
| Davs Mathematical Safety Graph is up to date and uploaded on 19:16 - Apr 16 by Phil_S |
I'm all sorts of things these days Gar. All sorts. |
I guess you'd have to be! I certainly don't envy you! | |
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| Davs Mathematical Safety Graph is up to date and uploaded on 19:40 - Apr 16 with 4048 views | plasjack |
Mathematics is a pure science is it not, so technically we are not safe, but realistically no need to worry, but on the other hand will the yanks change their mind if we were relegated,every cloud has a silver lining. |  | | |
| Davs Mathematical Safety Graph is up to date and uploaded on 19:45 - Apr 16 with 4038 views | morningstar |
| Davs Mathematical Safety Graph is up to date and uploaded on 19:40 - Apr 16 by plasjack |
Mathematics is a pure science is it not, so technically we are not safe, but realistically no need to worry, but on the other hand will the yanks change their mind if we were relegated,every cloud has a silver lining. |
Are you saying that it may be better we are relegated just so long as the people who own the club now (trust apart) remain at the helm? Honestly? | |
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| Davs Mathematical Safety Graph is up to date and uploaded on 19:51 - Apr 16 with 4026 views | plasjack |
| Davs Mathematical Safety Graph is up to date and uploaded on 19:45 - Apr 16 by morningstar |
Are you saying that it may be better we are relegated just so long as the people who own the club now (trust apart) remain at the helm? Honestly? |
Every cloud has a silver lining. | | | |
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| Davs Mathematical Safety Graph is up to date and uploaded on 21:46 - Apr 19 with 3751 views | Davillin |
I have updated "Mathematical Safety" after the Newcastle v Man. City draw.
Go to the O.P. for further information and the graph. | |
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| Davs Mathematical Safety Graph is up to date and uploaded on 01:49 - Apr 20 with 3570 views | andrew |
| Davs Mathematical Safety Graph is up to date and uploaded on 21:46 - Apr 19 by Davillin |
I have updated "Mathematical Safety" after the Newcastle v Man. City draw.
Go to the O.P. for further information and the graph. |
Basically, if Norwich
And Newcastle lose just 1 of their remaining 4 games were safe, why FG thinks we need 1 more win I don't know. |  |
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| Davs Mathematical Safety Graph is up to date and uploaded on 02:08 - Apr 20 with 3557 views | Davillin |
| Davs Mathematical Safety Graph is up to date and uploaded on 01:49 - Apr 20 by andrew |
Basically, if Norwich
And Newcastle lose just 1 of their remaining 4 games were safe, why FG thinks we need 1 more win I don't know. |
Because he knows that either a Swans win or a Newcastle loss will have the same effect, as with Norwich.
If I'm not mistaken, he made that statement before the Newcastle draw. Don't know about Norwich. | |
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| Davs Mathematical Safety Graph is up to date and uploaded on 08:38 - Apr 20 with 3402 views | scottishjack |
As much as I keep telling myself that we're fine, I still keep working out the maths in my head when others are playing. I'll be more at ease once there is no more need to update this graph... I'm sure we're fine though, positive...  |  | | |
| Davs Mathematical Safety Graph is up to date and uploaded on 13:00 - Apr 20 with 3269 views | Davillin |
| Davs Mathematical Safety Graph is up to date and uploaded on 08:38 - Apr 20 by scottishjack |
As much as I keep telling myself that we're fine, I still keep working out the maths in my head when others are playing. I'll be more at ease once there is no more need to update this graph... I'm sure we're fine though, positive... |
Let me put your mind somewhat more at ease. If Norwich and Newcastle both lose one game each, we're mathematically safe [on goal difference with Norwich]. Or Sunderland lose two.
And that includes the graph's assumption that the Swans don't get another point. A Swans win will make us mathematically safe [including a better goal difference]. | |
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| Davs Mathematical Safety Graph is up to date and uploaded on 00:21 - Apr 21 with 3126 views | Davillin |
I have added West Brom to the mix, as they have been sliding into our "mathematical safety" zone.
See new chart at O.P. | |
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| Davs Mathematical Safety Graph is up to date and uploaded on 23:02 - Apr 21 with 2946 views | Ebo |
If Newcastle lose this coming weekend they cannot catch us even if we lost all our remaining games and they won all of theirs after this weekend. If Sunderland lose two out of their remaining 5 games and we lose all ours they still can't catch us.
One win is all we need.
*Edit* just seen the post above. [Post edited 21 Apr 2016 23:03]
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| Davs Mathematical Safety Graph is up to date and uploaded on 17:18 - Apr 23 with 2807 views | Davillin |
I have updated "Mathematical Safety" after the Liverpool v. Newcastle draw.
Two down, one to go.
Go to the O.P. for further information and the graph. [Post edited 23 Apr 2016 17:19]
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| Davs Mathematical Safety Graph is up to date and uploaded on 17:23 - Apr 23 with 2778 views | sherpajacob |
In a nutshell the only way we can be mathematically safe tomorrow is if we win and Sunderland lose |  |
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| Davs Mathematical Safety Graph is up to date and uploaded on 17:36 - Apr 23 with 2741 views | Davillin |
| Davs Mathematical Safety Graph is up to date and uploaded on 17:23 - Apr 23 by sherpajacob |
In a nutshell the only way we can be mathematically safe tomorrow is if we win and Sunderland lose |
The key word in your post is "tomorrow." We have five more games to get points.
However, if we win tomorrow, we will be mathematically safe for the season, full stop. In that case, Norwich, even if they win out the season, would at best have the same points as we will, but their goal difference is dreadfully worse than ours [25 to our 11]. | |
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| Davs Mathematical Safety Graph is up to date and uploaded on 17:48 - Apr 23 with 2710 views | sherpajacob |
| Davs Mathematical Safety Graph is up to date and uploaded on 17:36 - Apr 23 by Davillin |
The key word in your post is "tomorrow." We have five more games to get points.
However, if we win tomorrow, we will be mathematically safe for the season, full stop. In that case, Norwich, even if they win out the season, would at best have the same points as we will, but their goal difference is dreadfully worse than ours [25 to our 11]. |
If a team can mathematically catch us even on GD we are NOT mathematically safe.
A GD of 14 better would be reduced by at least 8 if Norwich win all 4 and we lose all 4.
My original post is correct we would only be mathematically safe if we win and Sunderland lose.
In reality we are safe. | |
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| Davs Mathematical Safety Graph is up to date and uploaded on 18:13 - Apr 23 with 2655 views | Davillin |
| Davs Mathematical Safety Graph is up to date and uploaded on 17:48 - Apr 23 by sherpajacob |
If a team can mathematically catch us even on GD we are NOT mathematically safe.
A GD of 14 better would be reduced by at least 8 if Norwich win all 4 and we lose all 4.
My original post is correct we would only be mathematically safe if we win and Sunderland lose.
In reality we are safe. |
O.K.
"Tomorrow" is still the key word in your first post. | |
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| Davs Mathematical Safety Graph is up to date and uploaded on 19:55 - Apr 24 with 2391 views | Davillin |
I have updated "Mathematical Safety" after the Leicester débacle.
Still two down, one to go.
Go to the O.P. for further information and the graph. | |
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| Davs Mathematical Safety Graph is up to date and uploaded on 19:34 - Apr 30 with 2148 views | Davillin |
I have updated "Mathematical Safety" after the Norwich loss to Arsenal. p.s. To simplify the graph, I have removed three teams that are out of contention for the drop, and which Swansea cannot overtake.
Still two down, one to go, but now a Swansea draw or win will do it. Or a Norwich or Sunderland draw or loss.
C'mon Swansea. Beat Liverpool on Sunday and make it more fun.
Go to the O.P. for further information and the graph. [Post edited 30 Apr 2016 19:35]
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| Davs Mathematical Safety Graph is up to date and uploaded on 19:44 - Apr 30 with 2090 views | londonlisa2001 |
| Davs Mathematical Safety Graph is up to date and uploaded on 19:34 - Apr 30 by Davillin |
I have updated "Mathematical Safety" after the Norwich loss to Arsenal. p.s. To simplify the graph, I have removed three teams that are out of contention for the drop, and which Swansea cannot overtake.
Still two down, one to go, but now a Swansea draw or win will do it. Or a Norwich or Sunderland draw or loss.
C'mon Swansea. Beat Liverpool on Sunday and make it more fun.
Go to the O.P. for further information and the graph. [Post edited 30 Apr 2016 19:35]
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We can get to 49 points and can therefore overtake everyone up to and including Stoke. West Brom are included but not Bournemouth who are below West Brom in the table.
Not that it matters. [Post edited 30 Apr 2016 19:45]
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| Davs Mathematical Safety Graph is up to date and uploaded on 19:44 - Apr 30 with 2083 views | KulusBeatFactory |
thx Dav
(pity many cant 'see' the value of the analysis btw)
#thickos | | | |
| Davs Mathematical Safety Graph is up to date and uploaded on 19:49 - Apr 30 with 2064 views | sherpajacob |
In simple terms
If we get one more point.
Or Sunderland or Norwich drop one more point
We are mathematically safe. | |
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