| The 4th Industrial Revolution 08:35 - Jun 4 with 5868 views | Pommyhoop |
Exciting but scary in a luddite sort of way..
FUTURE PREDICTIONS:
In 1998, Kodak had 170,000 employees and sold 85% of all photo paper worldwide. Within just a few years, their business model disappeared and they went bankrupt. What happened to Kodak will happen in a lot of industries in the next 10 years - and most people don't see it coming. Did you think in 1998 that 3 years later you would never take pictures on paper film again? Yet digital cameras were invented in 1975. The first ones only had 10,000 pixels, but followed Moore's law. So as with all exponential technologies, it was a disappointment for a long time, before it became way superior and got mainstream in only a few short years. It will now happen with Artificial Intelligence, health, autonomous and electric cars, education, 3D printing, agriculture and jobs. Welcome to the 4th Industrial Revolution. Welcome to the Exponential Age.
Software will disrupt most traditional industries in the next 5-10 years.
Uber is just a software tool, they don't own any cars, and are now the biggest taxi company in the world. Airbnb is now the biggest hotel company in the world, although they don't own any properties.
Artificial Intelligence: Computers become exponentially better in understanding the world. This year, a computer beat the best Go player in the world, 10 years earlier than expected. In the US, young lawyers already don't get jobs. Because of IBM Watson, you can get legal advice (so far for more or less basic stuff) within seconds, with 90% accuracy compared with 70% accuracy when done by humans. So if you study law, stop immediately. There will be 90% fewer lawyers in the future, only specialists will remain. Watson already helps nurses diagnosing cancer, 4 time more accurate than human nurses. Facebook now has a pattern recognition software that can recognize faces better than humans. By 2030, computers will become more intelligent than humans.
Autonomous Cars: In 2018 the first self-driving cars will appear for the public. Around 2020, the complete industry will start to be disrupted. You don't want to own a car anymore. You will call a car with your phone, it will show up at your location and drive you to your destination. You will not need to park it, you only pay for the driven distance and can be productive while driving. Our kids will never get a driver's license and will never own a car. It will change the cities, because we will need 90-95% fewer cars for that. We can transform former parking space into parks. 1.2 million people die each year in car accidents worldwide. We now have one accident every 100,000 km, with autonomous driving that will drop to one accident in 10 million km. That will save a million lives each year.
Most car companies may become bankrupt. Traditional car companies try the evolutionary approach and just build a better car, while tech companies (Tesla, Apple, Google) will do the revolutionary approach and build a computer on wheels. I spoke to a lot of engineers from Volkswagen and Audi; they are completely terrified of Tesla.
Insurance Companies will have massive trouble because without accidents, the insurance will become 100x cheaper. Their car insurance business model will disappear.
Real estate will change. Because if you can work while you commute, people will move further away to live in a more beautiful neighborhood.
Electric cars won’t become mainstream until 2020. Cities will be less noisy because all cars will run on electric. Electricity will become incredibly cheap and clean: Solar production has been on an exponential curve for 30 years, but you can only now see the impact. Last year, more solar energy was installed worldwide than fossil. The price for solar will drop so much that all coal companies will be out of business by 2025.
With cheap electricity comes cheap and abundant water. Desalination now only needs 2kWh per cubic meter. We don't have scarce water in most places, we only have scarce drinking water. Imagine what will be possible if anyone can have as much clean water as he wants, for nearly no cost.
Health: There will be companies that will build a medical device (called the "Tricorder" from Star Trek) that works with your phone, which takes your retina scan, your blood sample and you breathe into it. It then analyses 54 biomarkers that will identify nearly any disease. It will be cheap, so in a few years everyone on this planet will have access to world class medicine, nearly for free.
3D printing: The price of the cheapest 3D printer came down from $18,000 to $400 within 10 years. In the same time, it became 100 times faster. All major shoe companies started 3D printing shoes. Spare airplane parts are already 3D printed in remote airports. The space station now has a printer that eliminates the need for the large number of spare parts they used to have in the past.
At the end of this year, new smart phones will have 3D scanning possibilities. You can then 3D scan your feet and print your perfect shoe at home. In China, they already 3D printed a complete 6-storey office building. By 2027, 10% of everything that's being produced will be 3D printed.
Business Opportunities: If you think of a niche you want to go in, ask yourself: "in the future, do you think we will have that?" and if the answer is yes, how can you make that happen sooner? If it doesn't work with your phone, forget the idea. And any idea designed for success in the 20th century is doomed in to failure in the 21st century.
Work: 70-80% of jobs will disappear in the next 20 years. There will be a lot of new jobs, but it is not clear if there will be enough new jobs in such a small time.
Agriculture: There will be a $100 agricultural robot in the future. Farmers in 3rd world countries can then become managers of their field instead of working all days on their fields. Agroponics will need much less water. The first Petri dish produced veal is now available and will be cheaper than cow-produced veal in 2018. Right now, 30% of all agricultural surfaces is used for cows. Imagine if we don't need that space anymore. There are several startups that will bring insect protein to the market shortly. It contains more protein than meat. It will be labeled as "alternative protein source" (because most people still reject the idea of eating insects).
There is an app called "moodies" which can already tell in which mood you are. Until 2020 there will be apps that can tell by your facial expressions if you are lying. Imagine a political debate where it's being displayed when they are telling the truth and when not.
Bitcoin will become mainstream this year and might even become the default reserve currency.
Longevity: Right now, the average life span increases by 3 months per year. Four years ago, the life span used to be 79 years, now it's 80 years. The increase itself is increasing and by 2036, there will be more than one year increase per year. So we all might live for a long long time, probably way more than 100.
Education: The cheapest smart phones are already at $10 in Africa and Asia. Until 2020, 70% of all humans will own a smart phone. That means, everyone has the same access to world class education.
Robert M. Goldman MD, PhD, DO, FAASP
www.DrBobGoldman.com
World Chairman-International Medical Commission
Co-Founder & Chairman of the Board-A4M
Founder & Chairman-International Sports Hall of Fame
Co-Founder & Chairman-World Academy of Anti-Aging Medicine
President Emeritus-National Academy of Sports Medicine (NASM)
Chairman-U.S. Sports Academy’s Board of Visitors
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| The 4th Industrial Revolution on 09:54 - Jun 4 with 3399 views | mikeygunn |
I blame John Conner |  | | |
| The 4th Industrial Revolution on 10:19 - Jun 4 with 3371 views | DWQPR |
But will Leroy Fer ever learn to trap a football? |  |
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| The 4th Industrial Revolution on 10:26 - Jun 4 with 3361 views | Northernr |
Cool, let me know when it's all ready, I'll be in the Crown. |  | | |
| The 4th Industrial Revolution on 10:54 - Jun 4 with 3328 views | MoonshineSteve |
Okay. I'll send you a thoughtwave.
I was going to say mine's a Pride but the bar will already know that. |  |
| I am still Steve but no longer in Dagenham. |
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| The 4th Industrial Revolution on 11:05 - Jun 4 with 3321 views | Mytch_QPR |
Tony will still be tweeting about a new stadium and promotion.
I think I need to retrain as an undertaker or barber as I think these will be the only professions guaranteed to survive!
I was talking to someone who works in the insurance industry about self-driving cars. Basically, the car owners won't need insurance but I suppose the manufacturers will have to have blanket policies in case their vehicles malfunction and have / cause an accident.
More importantly for Clive, I imagine he'll be able to hop into his after several sherbets in The Crown and get home (but you may have to stay in there for a few years yet before this gets sorted)... |  |
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| The 4th Industrial Revolution on 15:00 - Jun 4 with 3182 views | Dorse |
And yet I will still have fcuk all hair. |  |
| 'What do we want? We don't know! When do we want it? Now!' |
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| The 4th Industrial Revolution on 15:07 - Jun 4 with 3170 views | TheBlob |
Everybody will be fitted with a nano bot factory ,Bots maintaining ad infinitum,fully programmable so you can "improve" certain parts of your anatomy. |  |
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| The 4th Industrial Revolution on 15:48 - Jun 4 with 3137 views | Mytch_QPR |
| The 4th Industrial Revolution on 15:07 - Jun 4 by TheBlob |
Everybody will be fitted with a nano bot factory ,Bots maintaining ad infinitum,fully programmable so you can "improve" certain parts of your anatomy. |
Jackie Treehorn:
Of course, you have to take the good with the bad. The new technology permits us to do very exciting things in interactive erotic software. Wave of the future, Dude. 100% electronic.
Jeffrey Lebowski
Hmmm. Well, I still jerk off manually. | |
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| The 4th Industrial Revolution on 15:54 - Jun 4 with 3121 views | TheBlob |
As far as AI is concerned - you go against the axiom of never giving someone better weapons than you've got yourself.You have to build in an uninterruptible OFF switch otherwise you'll get a "Colosssus-The Forbin Project" scenario.Asimov's laws of robotics won't be adopted universally one fears. | |
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| The 4th Industrial Revolution on 15:58 - Jun 4 with 3114 views | loftboy |
I can still remember watching the tomorrow worlds programme where they first showed us the internet, they called it "the information super highway" I turned to my mate and said "well that wont ever catch on" shows what I know. |  |
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| The 4th Industrial Revolution on 18:45 - Jun 4 with 3017 views | Dorse |
'BBC1, 8:15PM, 'Tomorrow's World Payback', Series 1, Ep3
Former presenters of Tomorrow's World receive humiliating wedgies in front of a disgruntled studio audience. This week, Judith Hann pays dearly for her robot controlled house prediction'. | |
| 'What do we want? We don't know! When do we want it? Now!' |
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| The 4th Industrial Revolution on 20:23 - Jun 4 with 2936 views | Billy_Kershaw |
Football statistics will be fed into super-computers which will use complex logarithms to determine the results of matches, goal-scorers and key talking points. The games will then be nominally played out by teams of robots with the club colours painted on. Robot referees will be unbiased and ensure fair play. All existing professional footballers will be made redundant and forced to find alternative "real work".
Mysteriously, the results-deciding logarithms are secretly hacked by an anonymous club supporter who ensures that QPR win the title for the next 10 successive seasons.... |  |
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| The 4th Industrial Revolution on 21:10 - Jun 4 with 2906 views | enfieldargh |
Is any of that allowed in Shia law, if not then it won't happen |  |
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| The 4th Industrial Revolution on 21:20 - Jun 4 with 2887 views | DWQPR |
| The 4th Industrial Revolution on 20:23 - Jun 4 by Billy_Kershaw |
Football statistics will be fed into super-computers which will use complex logarithms to determine the results of matches, goal-scorers and key talking points. The games will then be nominally played out by teams of robots with the club colours painted on. Robot referees will be unbiased and ensure fair play. All existing professional footballers will be made redundant and forced to find alternative "real work".
Mysteriously, the results-deciding logarithms are secretly hacked by an anonymous club supporter who ensures that QPR win the title for the next 10 successive seasons.... |
Isn't that what they are doing at Brentford? | |
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| The 4th Industrial Revolution on 21:50 - Jun 4 with 2854 views | Hoop_Du_Jour |
It's a shame the cure for cancer hasn't followed Moore's law, I've only a year or so to go and will miss all this good stuff.
Tea, Earl Grey, hot.... |  | | |
| The 4th Industrial Revolution on 22:21 - Jun 4 with 2812 views | CiderwithRsie |
"Our kids will never get a driver's license and will never own a car. "
Bloody hurry up before I have to buy one for my daughter, then. You've got two years. | | | |
| The 4th Industrial Revolution on 22:27 - Jun 4 with 2800 views | loftboy |
| The 4th Industrial Revolution on 21:50 - Jun 4 by Hoop_Du_Jour |
It's a shame the cure for cancer hasn't followed Moore's law, I've only a year or so to go and will miss all this good stuff.
Tea, Earl Grey, hot.... |
Have I just read that right? If so bloody hell mate, puts things into perspective, best wishes. If I've read it wrong then I apologise . | |
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| The 4th Industrial Revolution on 23:22 - Jun 4 with 2765 views | CiderwithRsie |
| The 4th Industrial Revolution on 22:27 - Jun 4 by loftboy |
Have I just read that right? If so bloody hell mate, puts things into perspective, best wishes. If I've read it wrong then I apologise . |
+1 | | | |
| The 4th Industrial Revolution on 00:19 - Jun 5 with 2733 views | PunteR |
| The 4th Industrial Revolution on 21:50 - Jun 4 by Hoop_Du_Jour |
It's a shame the cure for cancer hasn't followed Moore's law, I've only a year or so to go and will miss all this good stuff.
Tea, Earl Grey, hot.... |
Flippin eck mate!. Sorry to hear that.
I wish you all the very best this year and hopefully a few more years after.. |  |
| Occasional providers of half decent House music. |
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| The 4th Industrial Revolution on 00:37 - Jun 5 with 2719 views | ozexile |
And with all that technology there's still only one way to check your prostate? | | | |
| The 4th Industrial Revolution on 03:30 - Jun 5 with 2683 views | Pommyhoop |
| The 4th Industrial Revolution on 21:50 - Jun 4 by Hoop_Du_Jour |
It's a shame the cure for cancer hasn't followed Moore's law, I've only a year or so to go and will miss all this good stuff.
Tea, Earl Grey, hot.... |
Jeeze mate, really sorry to hear that. Best wishes for the future mate.
[Post edited 5 Jun 2016 5:10]
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| The 4th Industrial Revolution on 07:59 - Jun 5 with 2617 views | exiled_dictator |
and people will still be coming to me for their milk, bread and cheese, if not newspapers.
and let's not forget that real food will never go out of business, or end up like the willy wonka chewing gum food experience.
sorry to hear about your predicament regarding cancer.
40 years ago, liver, heart and lung transplants were merely a dream. today thousands undergo them regularly. same with kidney transplants. someday cancer will be beaten, just maybe not in time for you. |  |
| It's not what you've got; it's where you stick it. | | Poll: | Climate Change |
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| The 4th Industrial Revolution on 12:04 - Jun 5 with 2516 views | terryb |
| The 4th Industrial Revolution on 21:50 - Jun 4 by Hoop_Du_Jour |
It's a shame the cure for cancer hasn't followed Moore's law, I've only a year or so to go and will miss all this good stuff.
Tea, Earl Grey, hot.... |
So sorry to read this.
Hope that you are able to enjoy the time that you have left with us.
You may need a divorce from Rangers for that though! | | | |
| The 4th Industrial Revolution on 18:25 - Jun 5 with 2408 views | MrSheen |
Good luck HdJ. Cram it all in.
I hope the AI in the self-driving plastic bubble car of the future can cope with a doolally half-blind old geezer (me, probably) bombing the wrong way up the motorway towards it in an ancient Volvo. Getting these smart new technologies to fit in with a stupid old world will be interesting, to say the least. There's also a lot of hype to beware of as well - see the tale of Theranos, which was going to revolutionise blood testing.
http://www.vanityfair.com/news/2016/05/elizabeth-holmes-theranos-class-action-la
Tesla has a lot on its plate. The real break out story in electric vehicles isn't fancy sports cars, but Chinese buses. You know how many miles a bus will drive a day, and you can charge it overnight, so you don't need the flexibility and potential range that people demand from their cars (even if they hardly ever use them). |  | | |
| The 4th Industrial Revolution on 18:38 - Jun 5 with 2399 views | Hoop_Du_Jour |
Hey, don't worry guys, I'm at peace with with my mortality! You never know, I'm halfway through a 6 month session of chemo to try and get a bit of extra time.
I might even get to see us back in the prem if it all goes well, that'll finish me off for sure!! | | | |
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